Black Rifle Market Collapse

RollingThunder51

RollingThunder51

Gunny Sergeant
Full Member
Minuteman
Feb 15, 2009
1,571
3
U.S.A.
#1
..

There appears to be a full blown collapse of the black rifle marketplace going on nation wide. Report after report suggests that the number of new rifles in stock (let alone still being run on lines that should have shut down months ago) is at an all time high. Uppers/lowers, barrels especially. Whereas this is not true with some of the "extra spicey" mambo rigs, the general market place is simply overwhelmed and running scared.

Notes to yourself:

1. If you need a black rifle, your time is almost here.

2. Unless your needs are for ninja unobtainium secret twist rifling with dual extractors, swap barrels or Grand Central rail sets, your rifle should be pretty damn near off the shelf.

3. The sales on black rifles have not yet begun like they will, if you can't find it on XMAS super discount, hold off until Feb/Mar it should be a real food fight.

4. We are already hearing of the largest co. laying off and closing down lines. Like GM, some of the bigger co's have yet to let their parent companies know just how unfrigging believeable their over build it. Soon, we will see the largest drop in memory of production for these rifles, this will have an impact, but not for quite a long time (2012)...there are that many over stocks!

We may yet see ARs priced where they should be...a fraction of where they are now.
 
#6
Re: Black Rifle Market Collapse

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: JRose</div><div class="ubbcode-body">I think it's b/c everyone bought their black rifle during the 2008 scare... </div></div>

Lots of truth in that.....now if ammo wouuld come back....
 
#7
Re: Black Rifle Market Collapse

(Bloomberg) -- Cerberus Capital Management LP has sent in reinforcements to shore up its munitions company, Freedom Group Inc. That hasn’t stopped the discouraging news for the Madison, North Carolina-based gun and ammunition manufacturer.
Since 2006, Cerberus, a New York-based buyout firm with assets valued at about $23 billion, has scooped up 13 firearm and ammo brands. These include well-known names such as Remington, Marlin, Bushmaster, DPMS/Panther Arms and Barnes Bullets. Cerberus combined those investments into Freedom Group.
The company enjoyed a 17 percent increase in sales last year to $848.7 million, making it the largest U.S. maker of civilian arms. In October 2009, Cerberus filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission to take Freedom Group public.
The gun play looked like it would pay off nicely.
Since then, Freedom Group has suffered setbacks, Bloomberg Businessweek reports in its Nov. 1 issue. The gun market slowed in 2010, and the initial public offering so far has not happened. In September, Freedom Group’s chief executive officer, Theodore Torbeck, resigned without the company naming a permanent replacement.
Cerberus announced that Robert L. Nardelli, former CEO of Chrysler LLC and Home Depot Inc., would head Freedom Group while the arms maker searched for a long-term chief. Nardelli, 62, had run Chrysler for Cerberus until 2009, when the carmaker filed for bankruptcy after one of the worst sales slumps in decades.
He was ousted as CEO of Home Depot in 2007 amid criticism of the company’s performance and his compensation.
Freedom Group “will revisit the exact timing of the IPO following the naming of the new CEO,” said Michael Fox, an outside spokesman for the company.

Rifle Recall

On Oct. 15, Bushmaster announced that it was voluntarily recalling its Adaptive Combat Rifle (ACR) because of a flaw that can turn the semiautomatic gun into a fully automatic that fires continuously when the trigger is pulled.
“The unexpected firing of multiple rounds creates a potentially dangerous situation,” the recall notice stated. Fox said the company isn’t releasing the number of rifles affected.
Introduced in January, the ACR is a military-style rifle intended for civilian and police customers. Bushmaster has been advertising the gun prominently on its website, calling it “the only rifle you need to master the infinite number of extreme scenarios you’ll face in the worlds of law enforcement and personal defense.”
The basic version of the ACR comes with a 30-round ammunition magazine, a muzzle-flash suppressor and a manufacturer’s recommended retail price of $2,685.

‘Remington Under Fire’

The company’s Remington unit also came under scrutiny this month, as the business-news television channel CNBC aired an hourlong documentary, “Remington Under Fire,” that focused on long-standing allegations that the Remington Model 700 rifle for hunters and snipers has an unsafe trigger that can cause accidental discharges. Remington has denied those assertions for years.
Freedom Group has paid Cerberus fees totaling
$1.1 million this year “for consulting services provided in connection with improving operations,” according to a Sept. 17 filing with the SEC.
 
#8
Re: Black Rifle Market Collapse

sounds like the laws of economics to me - supply and demand...the manufactures were not ready for the 2007-8 surge of demand that came with the wining of Obama in the election and the demand that would bring. They ramped up manufacturing and new companies entered the market and low and behold; a glut in the market for black rifles as the demand slowed down. Those that were going to buy did and those on the fence talked themselves out of it at the time. So how do you entice those on the fence; reduction of prices and sales and that is where we are at the moment.

So as Rolling Thunder51 said, the time is coming ripe if you are in the market for an AR.
 
#9
Re: Black Rifle Market Collapse

I hope prices fall just like anyone else. I figure it's my responsibility to make sure the next 5 generations of my family all have ARs :)
 
#10
Re: Black Rifle Market Collapse

It's exactly what happened after the 94 AWB.Just like when the current administration came in.Mass purchasing of everything in sight then 6 mos later the black rifle market was dead.It took two to three years for the Ban compliant stuff to start moving.Now its even worse because the economy is in the tank and people over extended.
 
#11
Re: Black Rifle Market Collapse

The 2012 election could play a big factor on demand for AR's that year. My guess is there will be another huge run on AR's if people think Obama might get re-elected.
 
#12
Re: Black Rifle Market Collapse

There are also a lot of good deals on used rifles as those who bought them during the rush at very inflated prices are now having to pay the credit cards or have lost their jobs.

The industry had also priced itself too high. Just as the housing market is correcting it's prices, the gun industry is doing the same thing.

When the SCAR rifles came out they were selling on Gunbroker for $6,000 each. It was ridiculous. Now, dealers are having a hard time moving them and we have a surplus of them. Guess that market has flatlined for sure. It's the same for AR.

The Obama election created a major outside stimulus for sales. Every joe and janet blow that had ever thought of owning one went out and bought them for whatever they could find them for. The dealers, distributors and manufacturers all took advantage of this with extreme price increases.

Smith & Wesson is supposedly coming out with a budget AR model. Haven't heard anything about them yet but will let you know when I do.

The next year will be interesting to see where the firearms industry goes. From my dealers, handguns are still moving fairlyh well. Long guns of any type are very slow. Looks like the economy finally caught with this industry. Just not a lot of extra income out there.

Charlie
 
#13
Re: Black Rifle Market Collapse

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: klkr</div><div class="ubbcode-body">The 2012 election could play a big factor on demand for AR's that year. My guess is there will be another huge run on AR's if people think Obama might get re-elected.</div></div>

I disagree. What is the difference between the day before reelection and the day after? Everyone who was scared enough to buy a black rifle because of Obama has already bought one.

The only thing that could stimulate the market at this point would be the introduction of gun legislation, and I really don't see that happening in the current political environment.
 
#15
Re: Black Rifle Market Collapse

"When the SCAR rifles came out they were selling on Gunbroker for $6,000 each. It was ridiculous"

That was not every SCAR, that was the first collectors run of the most researched & reengineered weapon ever pimped.
Prices are still ridiculously inflated on that site & some fools are still buying $2400 guns. When it all calms down I'll have a couple more to hold on to.
The bottom is coming. . . for now.
 
#16
Re: Black Rifle Market Collapse

Another consideration that follows from this trend is that if these companies can't unload all these rifles sitting on shelves, or if they barely break even from dropping the prices to ridiculously low levels (comparatively, at least), I would expect that R&D for new products will suffer. Meaning we may possibly see a marked decline in new products and/or new items going for incredibly high prices in the next 2-3 years following the current market glut. Bottom line is, if you see something you want at a good price in the next 3 to 6 months, you might want to snap it up while you still can.

Now, as Chiller pointed out, if only .223/.308 factory ammo would only drop to around 25 cents a round...
 
#17
Re: Black Rifle Market Collapse

For what it's worth, every rifle made will be around for decades. This post-election demand bubble has given a significant long term boost to the shooting sports because the rifles now exist.

Even though there may be a short-term downturn in rifle manufacturing demand & supply, there should be long term growth in other sectors of the shooting sports industry. Club memberships, ammunition, reloading, accessories, etc. are driven as a result of rifle sales.

We can hope that most of the yahoos who recently bought AR/AK's as "political insurance" will transition from amateur lead sprayers into responsible shooters and citizens that continue to support the shooting sports.

--Rootshot
 
#19
Re: Black Rifle Market Collapse

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Rootshot</div><div class="ubbcode-body">We can hope that most of the yahoos who recently bought AR/AK's as "political insurance" will transition from amateur lead sprayers into responsible shooters and citizens that continue to support the shooting sports.
</div></div>

IMHO one of the best statements made on the hide in general.
 
#21
Re: Black Rifle Market Collapse

When I went to Iraq Pre O I was picking up decent AR's in the $500-$600 range off ARCOM. Then The election and prices rocketed up due to no rifles to meet demand. Sold em all and now I am back to picking em up off ARCOM for $500-$600 again. Seems to work out pretty good. I remember a post here about that time with an interview of Jim Scouton (spelling) describing just this situation.

I was in about 10 gunstores today and noticed powder is well stocked and prices were coming back down. Primers were Everywhere in large supply, as was ammo. I hope ammo gets back down to at least pre-barry prices. I.E. $10 for a 100 round winchester value pack of 9mm. And $28 for a 100 round value of 45acp.
 
#23
Re: Black Rifle Market Collapse

Ok, so for the new guy that wants an AR, how long should I wait? I've been looking and kind of hovering, hoping to jump on a good deal. Now having read this I'm wondering if I don't hold out until February or March and see what happens.

I've been looking at a POF in 5.56. The first weekend I found them the P415's MSRP was $1995. A week later and it moved up to $2199. A $200 increase - they said it was due to new rail choices. Granted that's MSRP, but the cheapest I've found it anywhere for is $1845. Is waiting until February-March time frame really going to show an appreciable decrease in the cost of that AR? If so, I'll sit it out and wait for it.

I've also heard about a possible group buy for these. What price range should I be jumping on to get one of these? If I can buy it today for $1845, what can I realistically expect? I didn't buy an AR during the Obama-scare. I'm not buying one now because of him either. A friend recently bought one and I'm looking to get one so we can do some more shooting together. So basically I'm just a regular John Doe that's looking for the best deal on what I believe is a really good AR from the research I've done.
 
#24
Re: Black Rifle Market Collapse

not to throw a wet blanket on the optimism here, but unfortunately, black rifle economics doesn't exist in a vacuum. At the rate we are printing money, it is likely the nominal price of everything is going up due to inflation.

To some extent, this has already occurred. In other words AR15s may seem like the same "price" today as they were pre-Obama, but your money is worth a lot less today than it was then. (by way of comparison, gold was $800/oz when Obama was elected and near $1400/oz today) I.e. your dollar will buy half as much gold today, but you're paying the same for an AR15. So in real terms, they're already way cheaper than ever before.

btw, the custom DD deal seems by far the best bang for the buck going:
DD-assembled complete upper with CHF lightweight barrel and DD rifle-length lite rail for $525...

http://www.smartgunner.com/DanielDefenseLiteURG.aspx
 
#25
Re: Black Rifle Market Collapse

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: taliv</div><div class="ubbcode-body">
To some extent, this has already occurred. In other words AR15s may seem like the same "price" today as they were pre-Obama, but your money is worth a lot less today than it was then. (by way of comparison, gold was $800/oz when Obama was elected and near $1400/oz today) I.e. your dollar will buy half as much gold today, but you're paying the same for an AR15. So in real terms, they're already way cheaper than ever before.
</div></div>

This is really important if you are paid in gold or buy a bunch of gold, but if you are paid in USD and buy a typical basket of goods with those USD, you have not seen rampant inflation. Not yet. This is not to say that it won't happen.

Right now, gold is being sold not bought, and it is getting a little frothy. There is a great article in today's WSJ about it, as a matter of fact.
 
#26
Re: Black Rifle Market Collapse

Collapse may be a strong word to describe it but shelves are full and prices have stabilized and starting to come down. The overnight $200 - $300 or more price increase fall 2008 is still in effect though. Depends on what the economy/taxes do next year. Many of my family have got hit already, son and daughter will have a hard time paying for health care and my son dropped his, sister n law lost 4 employees absorbed most of their responsibilities and took a pay cut and she in hanging on day to day now, my taxes are predicted to go up $2700 so like many Americans, any spare coin will stay in the pocket and then it could collapse.
 
#27
Re: Black Rifle Market Collapse

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: TOP PREDATOR</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Rootshot</div><div class="ubbcode-body">We can hope that most of the yahoos who recently bought AR/AK's as "political insurance" will transition from amateur lead sprayers into responsible shooters and citizens that continue to support the shooting sports.
</div></div>

IMHO one of the best statements made on the hide in general.

</div></div>

This is something I've been trying to get all of my dealers to focus on. There is a whole new market of first time gun owners/first time black rifle owners. The industry needs to embrace them and disciple them in proper use and the enjoyment of firearms.

Charlie
 
#28
Re: Black Rifle Market Collapse

I don't know? One of the local black rifle shops has more people lining up out the door than ever before. And they are buying not looking. Its always busy.
 
#30
Re: Black Rifle Market Collapse

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Chiller</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: JRose</div><div class="ubbcode-body">I think it's b/c everyone bought their black rifle during the 2008 scare... </div></div>

Lots of truth in that.....now if ammo wouuld come back.... </div></div>


You can that again!!!!! The price is so high that I'm actually dusting off the reloading equipment and starting to roll my own!!!!
 
#31
Re: Black Rifle Market Collapse

I think the idea here is that manufacturers are not lowering their price, but all those who purchased an AR because the thought nObama was going to peel guns out of their hands are now selling what they paid too much for to put food on their tables. It's a simple supply and demand scenario. Supply is high demand is low, price drops drastically.....
 
#33
Re: Black Rifle Market Collapse

This is where the terms bull and bear markets come from.

Never mind the fact that people go out and buy the $100,000 pimped out SUV that cost $50.00 to the gallon only to sell it later on in the year for a Honda Prius of shit.

It's to be expected. I see it happen every year.

Same with firearms.
 
#34
Re: Black Rifle Market Collapse

i just want to say everything bob nardelli touches turns to shit. if you want to ruin a top performing home improvement chain, put him in charge. topple a car giant? call bob. want to ruin a gun company? take heed, bob is in charge.

same thing happened here. giys buying bare lowers and parts kits and selling complete rifles on every table at the local gun shows. then guys started getting visits and gentle reminders of the manufacturing laws. now alot of guys have a butt load of ar15s in their safes and cant sell them for as much margin as they had so they stopped taking them to shows. they should have kept moderate and not gouged at the last scare and sold all them rifles instead of milking them all for top dollar.
 
#37
Re: Black Rifle Market Collapse

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: patriotoutlaw</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Guns and Gold. You can never have too much of either.... </div></div>

Got to include ammo in that statement too....
 
#38
Re: Black Rifle Market Collapse

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Chiller</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: JRose</div><div class="ubbcode-body">I think it's b/c everyone bought their black rifle during the 2008 scare... </div></div>

Lots of truth in that.....now if ammo wouuld come back.... </div></div>


at least the price of bullets and powder and brass could just come down a bit more we ( the ones who already have rifles and reload ) would have it made, for a while any way
 
#40
Re: Black Rifle Market Collapse

Good Lord... tried to unload my AR this weekend to fund a suppressor and the mentality of these "new breed shooters" is nuts. I was ready to take a loss as I "need" a suppressor more than I "need" this AR so I was asking $1,300 and would take $1,200. They would tell me they could get one "just like it" for less... heck they can get a "Premium Model One Sales" Varmint for $650!

Hmmm... Wilson Combat 20" Bull Upper, DPMS lower with Geissele DMR, Target/Bench Grip, PRS Stock... I may just need to part this thing out to dump it.
 
#42
Re: Black Rifle Market Collapse

I don't own any ARs, don't really want any either. Just never been a fan of the system or the caliber.

Now is the time to buy though (or very soon). It wont be long that the market will drive up prices again...these things are cyclical.

Im just glad I can find powder.
 
#43
Re: Black Rifle Market Collapse

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: 762frmafr</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: RicosRevenge</div><div class="ubbcode-body">I may just need to part this thing out to dump it. </div></div>
would be your best bet. </div></div>

Ugh... I know, just a PITA...
 
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