A 10:1 bleach solution is still very effective (way more than alcohol) while being a lot less poisonous (if you're worried about it).
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Corona virus death rate.
- Thread starter buffalowinter
- Start date
Yep.
I've done some professional work in the area of surface disinfection. Most of the really nasty stuff - like the chem wipes used to disinfect keyboards in hospitals - require a full five minutes of "wetness" to do the job. And that's on a smooth, hard surface. Ever see anyone clean something so thoroughly that it stays wet with disinfectant that long?
I don't have any idea how "tough" coronaviruses are; most of what he looked at were microbes like e. coli (easy to kill) and c. diff (pretty damn hard). Maybe this thing just falls apart with a few seconds of exposure to common disinfectants.
Anyways, aren't we learning that this is mostly airborne? Seems then like surface decontamination is in the category of "good idea, but hardly sufficient".
Nope - that is how stats work, you are just looking at a different set of numbers.
Some data instead of supposition:
www.worldometers.info
Coronavirus Death Rate (COVID-19) - Worldometer
Case Fatality Rate (CFR), Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), and Crude Mortality Rate (CMR) latest estimates for the COVID-19 disease from the SARS-CoV-2 virus originating from Wuhan, China
www.worldometers.info
Tell that to the idiots wanting Gun Control. Pretty much the same kind of fractional numbers.
It does matter though. Essentially, under 50 y/o Covid19 has zero lethality. I suspect that the very small numbers are an underlying respiratory condition that is exacerbated, and the Covid19 is not the true cause of death.
Sorry, that's exactly how stats work. . I have an MBA and post-graduate work in statistics. And yes, I am looking at a specific set of numbers. 31 deaths divided by the population gives you the percentage of the population that has died from Corona Virus. 1000 cases divided by the population gives you the percentage of the population that has been infected with Corona Virus. It is ad-hoc. Don't confuse this with percentage of people infected in a specific portion of the population, i.e. elderly. young, or those with specific health concerns. It is not a predictive indicator of how many people might contract the disease.. I can't control what you infer from the statistic...and there-in lies the problem with the media.
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I don't think your response was directed at me. I already understand stats and the objective of both posts.
As much as people want to worship at statistics, they are still very much open to exactly what numbers you count.
Someone can say xxx deaths per xxx cases equals xxxx --- OMG the world will end!
But that gives a vastly different impression of reality as compared to if you were able to see how many cases there were than never got diagnosed as the specific "hot" one and were just treated as normal flu, either with no medical assistance at all, or just with standard flu treatments.
Someone can say xxx deaths per xxx cases equals xxxx --- OMG the world will end!
But that gives a vastly different impression of reality as compared to if you were able to see how many cases there were than never got diagnosed as the specific "hot" one and were just treated as normal flu, either with no medical assistance at all, or just with standard flu treatments.
Yes, sorry, my response was directed at Greenday4537. I think we are in agreement.
For those that want to apply math, start with the 1000 known cases, and apply a doubling period of six days (it may be closer to four; feel free to run the numbers with both assumptions).
Assume we have 100,000 ICU beds in the US with a 60% occupancy rate. Assume we can double that if necessary, yielding 140k beds available to receive Covid patients.
Assume that 5% of those who show signs of Covid infection will eventually require some sort of serious medical care.
Assume that we do nothing to reduce the transmission rate, which keeps intact the above stated doubling period.
Using the above assumptions, how long until we are fucked?
Tempus fugit.
Assume we have 100,000 ICU beds in the US with a 60% occupancy rate. Assume we can double that if necessary, yielding 140k beds available to receive Covid patients.
Assume that 5% of those who show signs of Covid infection will eventually require some sort of serious medical care.
Assume that we do nothing to reduce the transmission rate, which keeps intact the above stated doubling period.
Using the above assumptions, how long until we are fucked?
Tempus fugit.
The normal mortality rate on flu is 0.1%. The Spanish flu in 1918 (worst recorded) was 3-3.2%. Estimates on coronavirus are in the 1-2%. Roughly 10x the normal flu season.
Big issue with the coronavirus versus SARS is that the highly infected period is 4 days, doesn't show symptoms until 6 days. SARS showed symptoms at 6 days, infectious at 8.
Heard a stat last night thay 38% of healthcare workers in the US have a kid in school. While children remain pretty immune to this one. Closing schools would more than likely only create a further health care shortage.
There is no evidence to this slowing down when it warms up. Reference the MERS outbreak in 2012. It spread no problem in the middle east.
Big issue with the coronavirus versus SARS is that the highly infected period is 4 days, doesn't show symptoms until 6 days. SARS showed symptoms at 6 days, infectious at 8.
Heard a stat last night thay 38% of healthcare workers in the US have a kid in school. While children remain pretty immune to this one. Closing schools would more than likely only create a further health care shortage.
There is no evidence to this slowing down when it warms up. Reference the MERS outbreak in 2012. It spread no problem in the middle east.
I've covered this in another thread, but the problem with the virus is the high hospitalization rate (15-20% of infected need hospitalization) and exponential growth. That's why Italy is locked down with only 10,000 cases. They ran out of hospital capacity and the death rate went from 1% to over 9% now. When hospitals overload a lot of people start dying from other causes too.
We're in the same boat as Italy - we'll run out of hospital capacity way before we hit 1% infected because there are only 2.8 beds per 1000 people. At 1% infected we would have 71% of our hospital beds filled with infected. Does anyone really think we have enough masks, suits, isolation units, etc...to handle 71% of hospital beds packed with serious corona virus patients? At current growth rates we hit 1% infected by the second week in April.
At some point in the next two weeks the President is going to either have to tell everyone to stay home or we'll start to see regional hospitals break down in early April. Its doubling every 3-4 days now and exponential growth is ugly.
Everyone's focused on the low death rates, 80% who have mild symptoms, or whether we're going to waive payroll taxes. The 1-2% death rate only applies if we have a working healthcare system. We don't have enough beds to handle 15-20% hospitalization under exponential growth even for the next month.
Unfortunately the only way to preserve the medical system will be to lock everyone down to stop exponential growth, so we can stay within the capacity of the medical system. Nothing else really matters here...so be prepared to live from your home for some time to come. A minimum of 6 weeks and probably much longer. Don't count on medical support. Don't get injured. Get your own food and medical supplies if you can.
We're in the same boat as Italy - we'll run out of hospital capacity way before we hit 1% infected because there are only 2.8 beds per 1000 people. At 1% infected we would have 71% of our hospital beds filled with infected. Does anyone really think we have enough masks, suits, isolation units, etc...to handle 71% of hospital beds packed with serious corona virus patients? At current growth rates we hit 1% infected by the second week in April.
At some point in the next two weeks the President is going to either have to tell everyone to stay home or we'll start to see regional hospitals break down in early April. Its doubling every 3-4 days now and exponential growth is ugly.
Everyone's focused on the low death rates, 80% who have mild symptoms, or whether we're going to waive payroll taxes. The 1-2% death rate only applies if we have a working healthcare system. We don't have enough beds to handle 15-20% hospitalization under exponential growth even for the next month.
Unfortunately the only way to preserve the medical system will be to lock everyone down to stop exponential growth, so we can stay within the capacity of the medical system. Nothing else really matters here...so be prepared to live from your home for some time to come. A minimum of 6 weeks and probably much longer. Don't count on medical support. Don't get injured. Get your own food and medical supplies if you can.
Except....
They have living breathing cases of asymptomatic patients, that never even had the sniffles.
For all we know, we have already been exposed, and simply shook it off.
If you are going to talk about how deadly it is, including uninfected people makes absolutely no sense. It's a number with no value or meaning.
Hi,
So you are suggesting that when talking about how "deadly" something is, that we leave out the numbers that never even caught a case of the deadly....statistically speaking; that doesn't sound like real deadly to me....
Also..All the talk of test kits being scarce etc etc....do not mistake "not available" for 'scarce".....they are so scarce that South Korea has enough of them to do drive through testing literally in the streets.
Sincerely,
Theis
Meanwhile, Back in China, things are beginning to move back to normal operations. .
Yes, they are commies and had their shit on lockdown for a while. A lockdown we wouldn't be able to do. But, hey, at least there's positive news coming from somewhere reference this stupid bug.
Yes, they are commies and had their shit on lockdown for a while. A lockdown we wouldn't be able to do. But, hey, at least there's positive news coming from somewhere reference this stupid bug.
The stats say it's killing mostly 60-80 year olds right?
Who is reporting these "stats"?
What if you convinced all 60-80 year olds to stay home November 3rd?
Who is reporting these "stats"?
What if you convinced all 60-80 year olds to stay home November 3rd?
If you were having a kidney removed and the doctor said based on there being 310,000,000 people in America and about 7.5 of them will die during kidney transplant, so 7.5 out of 310,000,000 isn't bad, would you be totally okay with that comparison for your risk? Or would you prefer to know how many people have kidney transplants per year to see how likely someone with a kidney surgery will make it?
Just wait until some fucking drug company comes up the vaccine for this. Then you'll have a massive push by the government and the pharma industry to have everyone and their dog vaccinated. With a barely tested, hope for the best concoction. Have you guys actually read the ingredients on these vaccines? Fuck that. I've never had so much as a flu shot. Not gonna start now.
Well, based on your example the information provided for me
Would be irrelevant. I am having the kidney removed and the information is related to deaths during transplants. I am not having the transplant.
The original example was related to infection rate which is the portion of people infected divided by the total population. Your number was related to mortality rate. Both numbers are important. Your example concerning population and kidney transplants is irrelevant because not everyone needs a new kidney while most people exposed to the coronavirus would become infected.
Now, how about this not turning into an argument.
Problem with the stats is that , body count might be accurate enough the infection count is pure bullshit when they are not realy testing a lot of folks
If you look for example Germany with near 2000 confirmed infections has 3 bodies so far , same stats would mean number of infected in US would be closer to 25.000 cases , ok ,healthcare in US is in much more fucked up state and many more folks are overweight , but still bodies droped so far only indicate that US infection count is BS
Mortality rates among different countries vary far too much , most likely reason is that infection count is not realy keeping up.
If you look for example Germany with near 2000 confirmed infections has 3 bodies so far , same stats would mean number of infected in US would be closer to 25.000 cases , ok ,healthcare in US is in much more fucked up state and many more folks are overweight , but still bodies droped so far only indicate that US infection count is BS
Mortality rates among different countries vary far too much , most likely reason is that infection count is not realy keeping up.
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Do you think China is telling the truth about their numbers?Just compare how China handled this vs. Italy.
China is near back to business as usual and Italy just shut down the entire country. I prefer to the short early pain vs. the long drawn out heavy pain. But that's just me.
Likely not but if the new infection rate is even remotely close to what they are reporting then they are only weeks out of recovery while rest of the world speeds into pandemic.
Honestly do you think numbers coming out of CDC are any more true .
Well, we know the numbers from the CDC cant be accurate because no way in hell everybody that has mild symptoms or is asymptomatic are being tested.
The numbers will increase very rapidly when widespread testing starts taking place.
I couldn't tell you. But I believe there's been some confirmation that it is fairly accurate.
not per 1000 people. Flu is less than half a percent death rate. In the same amount of infections, this particular coronavirus will clearly kill more people than the flu.
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As of today Oregon has 14 confirmed cases, a lot less than WA. state . ( it is coming ) . 14 not a lot, but will be interesting to see how this compounds over this coming week and if I see a lot of Pos. tests come popping out of the local hospitol labs in my local area .
( in my local area ) ' Me '.. I betting it not going to be as high #'s as what is already testing positive like influenza A and RSV that is here right now and kicks ass and the elderly and pediatric population .
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Let me know if you find toilet paper anywhere! Starting to think Soros, Bloomberg, and Steyer are buying it all so people in "sanctuary cities" will crap on the sidewalks and the gunk will spread from there to a larger population so the economy tanks and their beloved Dems might have prayer in the off chance the virus could effect brain power. LOL
Saw this. Explains numbers pretty well excluding some things that are hard to factor.
It also shows how being a bit overly cautious or overreactive, depending on how you decide to view it, can really slow and diminish the amount of those infected.
Yes. This. Not the Flu, and will be significantly more widespread due to the above mentioned reasons.
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I normally never reply to my own Posts, but just as a FYI of reality ( in Oregon ) . I posted on Wednesday 14 Positive cases . and now 48 hours later 'today Friday' there is 30 confirmed Positive, with 11 of those 30 being hospitalized . so I am pretty curious as to how fast this is going to grow in this next week of time, and if there is a real alarm .
For right now today, as far as for what is alarming to me ...LOL . is the lowest common denominator of my fellow citizens 'panic' hoarders and the stupid . After running to post office, I went down to store to pick-up some poppy seed muffins for my morning coffee . The was complete chaos with huge lines of shopping carts , and also there was was a vehicle that maliciously rammed a person pushing a shopping cart, knocking them down with the cart out in the lot and took all there stuff .
I was also was told from someone that Costco on other side of town was crazy like an old school Walmart youtube black Friday fiasco, and they kicked everyone out and locked there doors because of all the rowdy stupidity of panic shopping .
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Captain Bowtie is correct.
There's 2 odds here, statistically.
Odds of getting it.
Odds of dying if you get it.
So what you are saying is tool up to the max before going shopping and bring all your friends and all their guns?
So this is starting to look like behavior straight out of a Mark Goodwin novel.
And here I sit, an ardent reader of dystopian fiction, yet I am sitting on my hands.
Still think this is a test run to lull the sheep later.
And here I sit, an ardent reader of dystopian fiction, yet I am sitting on my hands.
Still think this is a test run to lull the sheep later.
According to the staff, the residents of the WA assisted living center who died from CV showed no symptoms then 1 hour later went critical....
But now the feds are investigating...
...and a KS man at an assisted living facility owned by the same company has also died. Again staff says he went from OK to cardiac arrest in very little time.
Im just dumb-ass country folk but...
Something seems a bit fishy here.
www.businessinsider.com
:quality(70)/d1hfln2sfez66z.cloudfront.net/03-05-2020/t_53cdb4f5abb7449da83bf1b8b62ab20f_name_6av_setup_Life_Care_Center_Feds_transfer.jpg)
www.kiro7.com
www.kctv5.com
Oh and this....
As of March 11th.
But now the feds are investigating...
...and a KS man at an assisted living facility owned by the same company has also died. Again staff says he went from OK to cardiac arrest in very little time.
Im just dumb-ass country folk but...
Something seems a bit fishy here.
More than 60% of the US's coronavirus deaths are linked to a Washington nursing home. Here's what we know about the outbreak there.
More than 50 coronavirus cases have been linked to the Life Care Center, a long-term care facility in Kirkland, Washington.
www.businessinsider.com
Feds investigating Kirkland nursing facility at center of coronavirus outbreak
The federal government is sending a team to Kirkland to investigate what happened inside a nursing facility at the center of the coronavirus outbreak in Washington.
www.kiro7.com
Officials: Confirmed COVID-19 death was resident of Life Care Center in KCK
Health officials have confirmed what multiple sources have said, which is that Kansas’ first deadly COVID-19 case involved a patient at the Life Care Center of Kansas City.
Oh and this....
As of March 11th.
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Odds of getting it - well, pick a date when we hit 1 million cases (might be April, might be May). 5 doubling periods after that is when we'll hit ~60 million cases, so roughly 20-40 days afterwards. At that point, you've got something like 1:5 odds.
Multiply that by a morbidity rate of something percent. Might be 0.5%, might be 5%; the truth is probably in between, so let's go with 2.5%.
Your likelihood of dying from this stuff is now at roughly 0.5%. Seems pretty low, until you run that back through the population numbers and discover we're talking about 1.5 million deaths. In, uh, roughly 4 months time.
Maybe the doubling time doesn't quite work out to be 4-8 days, since eventually we start running out of people who are still wandering around in public. That's an interesting experiment in which I do not wish to participate.
The point is that running even small odds of death into a population of 300 million starts to rack up a horrific body count.
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