Fertilizer shortage

[armorpl8chikn]

What are your thoughts on class a products. ? I see Synagro’s product passed some environmentalists private analysis with flying colors

I hadn't made any in 10 years, when I retired.
To be honest,....
If its a purely domestic product, I'm all for it.
I'd be leary about a stream/product that has industrial origins, not saying i wouldn't use them in certain applications.
There are some very good products available, I am sure. I'm not personally familiar with Synagros products.
Would I put them on my little plot of land?
Maybe.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

While not a great gardener, we have about 20 to 25 yards of feedlot manure piled-up for our garden! No “fertilizer shortage” here! Often, being a survivalist is a rural area is a very positive thing! memtb

I'm in agreement with your thoughts. People label me as selfish when I tell them my first priority is to have a garden / homestead that will sustain "ME"..... I get that question of "Well, what about everyone else?"........ I give them a wink and a nod and walk away. Takes some people a while to figure shit out.

 

[memtb]

I'm in agreement with your thoughts. People label me as selfish when I tell them my first priority is to have a garden / homestead that will sustain "ME"..... I get that question of "Well, what about everyone else?"........ I give them a wink and a nod and walk away. Takes some people a while to figure shit out.

I do not support socialism or parasites, whichever term you prefer! My family comes first.....however, they piss me off, as they have done little to nothing for hard times! Essentially, their failure to do any “prepping”.....will put all of us at risk! memtb

 

[eastexsteve]

For your garden? What, 10 pounds of triple 17?

Grain prices will go up for sure.

It's been awhile since I've seen triple 17 in small quantities. Triple 13 can be found if you look hard.

 

[eastexsteve]

Any of ya'll farmer's seeing this?

Fertilizer Shortage May Lead to Spring Scramble on North America's Farms - US News Money​

https://money.usnews.com › investing › news › articles › f...

We own a 160 acre wheat farm in OK, and the only thing I see changing is the price of production going up.

 

[Oldloser]

While not a great gardener, we have about 20 to 25 yards of feedlot manure piled-up for our garden! No “fertilizer shortage” here! Often, being a survivalist is a rural area is a very positive thing! memtb

No substitute for bottom land, aka “made dirt” and manure. Small farmers need a corral and hay and then put the cows up for a month or two in the winter, then haul that manure to the garden in later winter. Cut hay on the bottoms in the summer then stack in it the barn for winter. Repeat.

You make 90% of your success by picking the right land and making sure it matches what you want to do and are capable of doing. A lot of people want to farm, but get their asses handed to them worse than a newb at a prs match, for a variety of reasons.

There are a lot of posts on here about farmers not making money. As long as you own the land free and clear, or the equipment (or cows) free and clear, then you wont be servicing borrowed capital, and can make good money, outside of dry years. The hunts, the hay, and selling your labor/equipment on odd jobs should be gravy.

Every time fertilizer goes high, there is wailing and moaning about the end of the world. That year is the year you live off the banked PK and be judicious about the N. Or just run it through cows. High prices bring low prices and vice versa.

Best crop I ever raised was hay, hands down. When I get back in, I Will run half the stocking rate, and excess grass will be hay and put it in the barns in wet years, then sell it for sky high prices in the dry years. But again I will pick a place near city folks with lots of cash and too many animals. And yes sir, I can deliver, for a fee. And yes, I can mow your lot.

 

[deersniper]

Best crop I ever raised was hay, hands down

lol hay is a joke if you have adequate rain fall. Any high yielding row crop blows it out of the water

you own the land free and clear,

???

Low interests rates and high inflation = have as much debt on appreciating assets as you can service

 

[Shanghai McCoy]

If you own land, you are in the land buisness. The farming still has to make equipment payments and land payments even if it is already paid off. The land is a buisness unit, the equipment is a buisness unit, etc....

 

[Oldloser]

lol hay is a joke if you have adequate rain fall. Any high yielding row crop blows it out of the water


???

Low interests rates and high inflation = have as much debt on appreciating assets as you can service

I’m not sure what you mean by row crop or adequate rainfall. Drought is the big factor in Texas.

But good bottomnland with 50lbs of N per acre will give four tons of hay per year on average in North Texas. That’s 120 square bales per acre sold at 5 dollars each. In drought years that price doubles. You can do the math. Your only question then is do you own the equipment and find a kid to run it when you don’t need it or not?

I own a lot of bottomland and my wife’s side owns several irrigated sections in Texas and we are quite familiar with the economics of the various farming and ranching options.

Hay by far is the highest returning option in North Texas while green chop and cows on winter wheat is the best on irrigated land.

 

[babyguppy]

280 pounds of grains a year feed a family of 4 with recommended 3 Oz per person per day (most Americans over-eat grains at 6ozs).

A family of four can live off the bread produced by one acre of wheat… for two years.

But let’s say we have to revert to pre-1945 methods… and it takes an acre per family per year. Half the yield.

Add in vegetables and some livestock and a farm does not have to be profitable to be a sustainable food source. For family/village groups.

Feeding cities… or other continents… no way. Not without agri -business and agri-science.

But middle America starving? I don’t see it. Grossly altered lifestyles? Dawn til dusk to live with field work. For some. No Disney vacations or flat screen TV’s? Most likely gone.

Then again how much do people pay to escape “civilization” for two weeks a year? Or at their country cottage because NYC is a hell hole… and if you have any money you go to the country every weekend?

Besides, lots of Ivy League dance interpretation majors will be available as farm hands for the cost of gruel and a shotgun shack. Let them do the weeding and hoeing.

Sirhr

I believe the Khmer Rouge had a solution for city dwellers.

 

[babyguppy]

Sirhrmechanic is a smart guy and I love reading his posts on this subject. I run a family farm in Illinois and love to read what everyones take is on farming. The big data is owned by the farmer. I truly believe that someone other than the farmer is analyzing the data. My platform is climate FieldView and all my data goes to the cloud. I am not sure how John Deere data is stored as I have been with FieldView since 2012.

People forget that General Sherman used crop yields to plan his march into Atlanta. He wanted to make sure he could feed his army with the least number of logistical issues. Also, Sherman knew that if his troops were eating the Southern grain and meat, the Southerners weren't.

 

[babyguppy]

lol hay is a joke if you have adequate rain fall. Any high yielding row crop blows it out of the water


???

Low interests rates and high inflation = have as much debt on appreciating assets as you can service

LOL, not everyone relies on GOD to irrigate. Hence center pivots. Last I checked, people in Scottsdale AZ love their horses as much as people in Ohio.

 

[deersniper]

LOL, not everyone relies on GOD to irrigate. Hence center pivots. Last I checked, people in Scottsdale AZ love their horses as much as people in Ohio.

Well if you have adequate water and climate hay is still a joke

But most large scale bay areas are lacking water

 

[lariat]

Well if you have adequate water and climate hay is still a joke

But most large scale bay areas are lacking water

Genuinely curious, do you have the data to show the net profit for various crops per acre vs hay? I would like to see that.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

People forget that General Sherman used crop yields to plan his march into Atlanta. He wanted to make sure he could feed his army with the least number of logistical issues. Also, Sherman knew that if his troops were eating the Southern grain and meat, the Southerners weren't.

Bring war material with you from home, but forage on the enemy. Thus the army will have food enough for its needs.
Sun Tzu

A very old tactic of war

We will see it in our lifetime

 

[eastexsteve]

Genuinely curious, do you have the data to show the net profit for various crops per acre vs hay? I would like to see that.

I suspect that will depend upon where you are. In East Texas, there's no money in hay unless you have cattle you need to feed. I tried it. It didn't make a fraction of what our OK wheat farm did. And, there's really not much money in that, either unless you have A LOT of acreage.

 

[Darayavaus]

Monsanto was purchased by Bayer some years ago. Nitrogen is going to be expensive but it will be available. Profit margins are going to be better than ever for fertilizer companies and I guarantee they want to sell it at these high prices. When people in the USA start starving to death then the world will stop shitting on the American farmer.

ironic, considering the thread is about farmers not getting enough shit.

 

[GunGasm]

Been reading and watching this thread, just curious as to the depth some members here are actually involved in todays world of agriculture? Enlighten us

 

[deersniper]

Genuinely curious, do you have the data to show the net profit for various crops per acre vs hay? I would like to see that.

Not now work all day no work tonight.



But hay is labor intensive , the equipment is not near as perfected as other farm equipment. And when you have short windows of hay weather, you end up baling some hay as cow hay or mulch hay which really cuts into the profit. If your doing many acres you need people raking, tedding , baling , picking up , hauling , and putting away. At the same time.




Per acre
Corn 200x$5-7
Bean 65 x $10-15
Wheat 80 x $5-9 plus 40 bales straw x $4-6 plus 20-60 bushel beans x $10-15
Hay 30-100 x $2-8


Wheat with double crop beans beats all but takes a lot of work and can only do so much. You get late the wheat goes bad and the double crop beans don’t make much

 

[krw]

We farm in SW Ark. Cattle, Poultry, Hay.
1. There aint no money in cattle.
2 There aint no money in hay

 

[Shanghai McCoy]

North Texas and row crops ate a tou

We farm in SW Ark. Cattle, Poultry, Hay.
1. There aint no money in cattle.
2 There aint no money in hay

There is plenty of money in cattle.........if you are the packer.

 

[sirhrmechanic]

Been reading and watching this thread, just curious as to the depth some members here are actually involved in todays world of agriculture? Enlighten us

Grew up on a working horse farm... spent 17 years trying to get off it... 25 working my way back! But now it's mostly fallow except I have been playing with grape vines.

I am not a farmer by any stretch... But I like to think that I have a sufficient appreciation of history and an ability to ask probing questions. Because this is a really interesting thread and I'd love to hear (as I think you would) the insights of folks who really are on the front lines of farming.

Sirhr

 

[Oldloser]

Not now work all day no work tonight.



But hay is labor intensive , the equipment is not near as perfected as other farm equipment. And when you have short windows of hay weather, you end up baling some hay as cow hay or mulch hay which really cuts into the profit. If your doing many acres you need people raking, tedding , baling , picking up , hauling , and putting away. At the same time.




Per acre
Corn 200x$5-7
Bean 65 x $10-15
Wheat 80 x $5-9 plus 40 bales straw x $4-6 plus 20-60 bushel beans x $10-15
Hay 30-100 x $2-8


Wheat with double crop beans beats all but takes a lot of work and can only do so much. You get late the wheat goes bad and the double crop beans don’t make much

This is all location dependent as well. Soil. Rain. Sun. Availability of inputs and closeness to markets. And weather.

We get long periods of hot dry weather in Texas. Lots of hobby farms. Makes hay an easy crop to do and sell. But makes other crops other than Wheat or Cotton iffy. It helps to know the local wrestling coach to get fit young kids who want to work.

But we also get long periods of very wet and cold weather in North Texas. That makes cattle a miserable job if you have to hay them in that weather on mud. Turnips into stubble beats just about anything for winter forage. Pull cows off onto a hill if it will rain. I won't do ryegrass on a lot of ground anymore as it uses too much moisture needed for summer.

Drought makes a fool of all farmers and ranchers - if it wont rain, nothing grows. Unless you are irrigated, but it costs $$$ to run the pumps and more $$$ to maintain the equipment.

A hail storm can destroy just about any crop. I've seen one pound my sorghum into a paste.

 

[stefan73]

Monsanto was purchased by Bayer some years ago. Nitrogen is going to be expensive but it will be available. Profit margins are going to be better than ever for fertilizer companies and I guarantee they want to sell it at these high prices. When people in the USA start starving to death then the world will stop shitting on the American farmer.

Or the "man" will claim that it is farmers faults for poor farming practices. Next thing we will have farming labor camps.

 

[stefan73]

Well that sucks to hear! I was planning on putting down about 2 tons of triple 16 and at least 14 tons of lime this spring.

 

[eastexsteve]

Been reading and watching this thread, just curious as to the depth some members here are actually involved in todays world of agriculture? Enlighten us

A timber farm in NE Texas and a wheat farm in OK.

 

[Shanghai McCoy]

Been reading and watching this thread, just curious as to the depth some members here are actually involved in todays world of agriculture? Enlighten us

I full time farm and ranch in Oklahoma and Kansas. Purebred Red Angus, stocker calves, wheat for grazing and grain, soybeans, milo, corn and various other crops at different times.

 

[skinney_7]

Been reading and watching this thread, just curious as to the depth some members here are actually involved in todays world of agriculture? Enlighten us

4th Gen here, only time away from the farm was college sports. We run about 600hd of black Angus, put up about 3K tons of hay each summer, 1500 ton of Corn Silage to BG calves, as well as Irrigated and dryland Corn, CC, Millet, Oats, Alfalfa, Forage Wheat... We also help out bordering neighbors with Harvest, Haying, Pregin cattle, branding calves, pre conditioning, calving, feedlots etc. I also help manage another 550 hd in the summer that my godfather leases out, checking water, salt and mineral supps, doctoring, and round up. There's a lot, lot more to it, but you get the idea.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

CF Industries is doing well this morning....

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance

Find the latest CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) stock quote, history, news and other vital information to help you with your stock trading and investing.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[2aBaC̶a̶]

Dont worry Bill Gates and China will save us.

 

[sea2summit]

Thank goodness for all the chicken houses around here!

Before last year it used to be free to grab truck loads from them here, apparently those days are gone. Right now for us it still saves ~$50/acre to use chicken over chemical but wow, that wasn’t in my budget.

*not a real farmer I just make some hay with my boy as a hobby.

 

[sea2summit]

Going to try my hand at producing some of my own food this year. Put some blueberries, blackberries, and an elderberry bush in the ground last week. Won’t produce much this year, hoping next year will have a decent crop. Going to try planting most of the vegetables we consume also, I have enough room here to support most of what we eat in that area. Kids love strawberries so I’ll put some of those in too. Going to talk to my family today about feeding a steer out and getting a kill date set up.

Compost pile is getting started

Ordering some chicks in the spring

I want a jersey cow but damn is that a commitment.

Writing is on the wall for problems and learning to be self sufficient is going to be a benefit in the not so distant future I presume.

So last year we harvested 71 lbs of blackberries and I was quite proud of our efforts. Then I did the calorie numbers of effort spent vs calories in the freezer. Berries aren’t a good return on investment for calories.

 

[sea2summit]

Been reading and watching this thread, just curious as to the depth some members here are actually involved in todays world of agriculture? Enlighten us

I have a full time job but help a small time cow guy for the experience. Have two other properties I run a small number of cows and meat goats on and cut hay. All together I work about 500 acres. Also raise several batches of chickens per year for the freezer, layers, Jersey cow and a few dairy goats, enough pigs to eat any leftovers. I spend a lot of money and really so far have only made food for my family and paid expenses plus gotten free hay out of haying. It’s a huge money and time suck.
The old saying “how do you make a million dollars farming? Start with two million” has prooven true for me, I’d hate to have to make a living off it.

 

[sea2summit]

Not now work all day no work tonight.



But hay is labor intensive , the equipment is not near as perfected as other farm equipment. And when you have short windows of hay weather, you end up baling some hay as cow hay or mulch hay which really cuts into the profit. If your doing many acres you need people raking, tedding , baling , picking up , hauling , and putting away. At the same time.




Per acre
Corn 200x$5-7
Bean 65 x $10-15
Wheat 80 x $5-9 plus 40 bales straw x $4-6 plus 20-60 bushel beans x $10-15
Hay 30-100 x $2-8


Wheat with double crop beans beats all but takes a lot of work and can only do so much. You get late the wheat goes bad and the double crop beans don’t make much

And you have to cut hay two-three times a season then store/shelter it for an unknown time for that money.

 

[6Shooter]

Going to keep getting worse. November inflation was 6.8%.

Inflation rises to 6.8% in November, highest in 39 years - Washington Examiner

Consumer prices increased 6.8% for the year ending November, according to a report released on Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the fastest pace of inflation in 39 years. The much-anticipated numbers from the consumer price index came in above expectations and are likely to add to...

www.washingtonexaminer.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Going to keep getting worse. November inflation was 6.8%.

Inflation rises to 6.8% in November, highest in 39 years - Washington Examiner

Consumer prices increased 6.8% for the year ending November, according to a report released on Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the fastest pace of inflation in 39 years. The much-anticipated numbers from the consumer price index came in above expectations and are likely to add to...

www.washingtonexaminer.com

Appears to be two camps on inflation..... One camp says "America will overcome this inflation" .......... the other says .... "Inflation won't go away until the USD collapses"..... If you dig deep into their research, no one knows what the outcome will be. Unfortunately, the rest of the world is starting to doubt the stability of America...
_____________

What Is Fiat Money? ​

Fiat money is a government-issued currency that is not backed by a physical commodity, such as gold or silver, but rather by the government that issued it. The value of fiat money is derived from the relationship between supply and demand and the stability of the issuing government, rather than the worth of a commodity backing it. Most modern paper currencies are fiat currencies, including the U.S. dollar, the euro, and other major global currencies

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Going to keep getting worse. November inflation was 6.8%.

Inflation rises to 6.8% in November, highest in 39 years - Washington Examiner

Consumer prices increased 6.8% for the year ending November, according to a report released on Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the fastest pace of inflation in 39 years. The much-anticipated numbers from the consumer price index came in above expectations and are likely to add to...

www.washingtonexaminer.com

U.S. Treasury Refuses to Answer Questions about Disposition of Its Own Gold

Recent correspondence between U.S. Rep. Alex X. Mooney, R-West Virginia, and the U.S. Treasury Department suggests that the department has given the Federal Reserve and International Monetary Fund unfettered control of a portion of U.S. gold reserves.

www.moneymetals.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

As if by magic, media outlets are suddenly declaring that Democrat Joe Biden’s economy is the strongest ever, without the administration doing anything to fix the many economic crises that are crippling the country.


However, the change in tone comes almost immediately after Neon Nettle reported that the administration has been holding “secret” meetings with “news” outlets on how to “reshape” Biden’s “message” to the public.


The White House has been working with major establishment media outlets in an effort to promote “favorable” coverage of Biden, instead of calling out his failings.


Biden admin has reportedly not been “happy” with headlines that state the truth about the supply-chain disaster and the Democratic regime’s handling of the economy.

Media Suddenly Declares Biden’s Economy Strongest Ever after Secret Narrative Meeting - LewRockwell

As if by magic, media outlets are suddenly declaring that Democrat Joe Biden’s economy is the strongest ever, without the administration doing anything to fix the many economic crises that are crippling the country. However, the change in tone comes almost immediately after Neon Nettle reported...

www.lewrockwell.com

 

[Im2bent]

Listen guys biden is working on this but give the guy a break. How many pairs of pants do you think he owns for gods sake? Its gonna take some time.

 

[2aBaC̶a̶]

I hear Joe is working on a cash deal with Al Queda in Afghanistan and Iraq to bring in all the leftover fertilizer.

 

[HayStax]

Lots of interesting comments here, lots of internet know it alls too.

Bottom line is at the current price and supply of N, horse owners will be eating their horses by next winter.

And the hay business beats the pants off of anything that goes through a combine. Weather risk can’t be insured for so most row croppers don’t even try.

There is no hippie dippy way to replace commercial Nitrogen fertilizer. Manure works if freight is free. Everything else is snake oil.

 

[2aBaC̶a̶]

Anybody seen the price of oil, grease, parts and all the other stuff it takes to keep farm equipment running???

Know how government takovers happen in socialist countries? When businesses and industries fail. How do businesses and industries fail? Bad government and regulations. (Among other things)

 

[deersniper]

And the hay business beats the pants off of anything that goes through a combine. Weather risk can’t be insured for so most row croppers don’t even try.

L O L

 

[6Shooter]

November producer prices rose 9.6%.

November Producer Prices Rise Record Breaking 9.6 Percent Year Over Year, Biggest Single Month in History, as Massive Inflation Builds Within The Supply Chain - Again, No Signs of Slowing Down - The Last Refuge

We said it was happening {Go Deep}, and it is. Last month CTH put the preparation window at 60 days +/- depending on region. That window is now around 30 days before the next spike in inflation shows up from cumulative costs snowballing throughout the supply chain. The “producer price index”...

theconservativetreehouse.com

 

[Oldloser]

Lots of interesting comments here, lots of internet know it alls too.

Bottom line is at the current price and supply of N, horse owners will be eating their horses by next winter.

And the hay business beats the pants off of anything that goes through a combine. Weather risk can’t be insured for so most row croppers don’t even try.

There is no hippie dippy way to replace commercial Nitrogen fertilizer. Manure works if freight is free. Everything else is snake oil.

Getting late to scratch in vetch or clover too..

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Russia, the world’s biggest exporter of fertilizers, imposed a two-month ban on ammonium nitrate exports. The move threatens to reduce fertilizer supplies, especially to South America, which is at a critical point in its growing season.

Russia Bans Fertilizer Exports; Will Weigh on Brazil Corn Crop

Brazil, the top importer of ammonium nitrate fertilizer from Russia, will begin planting its large second corn crop in the next few weeks

gro-intelligence.com

 

[babyguppy]

Russia, the world’s biggest exporter of fertilizers, imposed a two-month ban on ammonium nitrate exports. The move threatens to reduce fertilizer supplies, especially to South America, which is at a critical point in its growing season.

Russia Bans Fertilizer Exports; Will Weigh on Brazil Corn Crop

Brazil, the top importer of ammonium nitrate fertilizer from Russia, will begin planting its large second corn crop in the next few weeks

gro-intelligence.com

Did you see the part in the article mentioning china?
The move follows China’s ban on phosphate fertilizer exports that runs until June 2022.
edit: as well as
although the United States is not a direct buyer of Russian ammonium nitrate, Russia’s new export ban will likely result in higher fertilizer prices in the US. Since last year, urea cash prices are up nearly 90% in the US Midwest, and DAP futures prices are up nearly 30%.

 

[Alabama556]

What does a ton of 18-18-18 go for now?

 

[Hobo Hilton]

What does a ton of 18-18-18 go for now?

I will go to the highest bidder...... The shortage is worldwide.

 

[supercorndogs]

What does a ton of 18-18-18 go for now?

Predictably, high as fuck....