Fuel is about to get cheaper as Saudi Arabia floods the market

[MarinePMI]

If you have any reference links about said I've always enjoyed reading on this subject.
I think they/them that really run the money institutions already have looked past
petro.
How and when this tech will be 'released" will, I'm sure, be under the same control.

R

Most of my info comes through industry dialog and discussions, so not a whole lot of links. Never mind that it starts to get fairly sensitive at certain levels (I've caught myself a couple times now when responding, erasing stuff, thinking "Yeah, probably shouldn't post that on an open forum"). Suffice it to say, I think things could get really interesting over the next 5-10 years.

 

[MarinePMI]

Could be a better opening to relationships with Russia assuming we were willing to put our KSA "allies" in the hole they belong in.

Shame the dems are doing their best to muddy that relationship

The Russians are just as dependent (economy wise) on selling their oil, as the Saudi's are. Russia has been pretty much relegated to selling their natural resources to keep their economy going (and why they really don't have a seat at the table of world powers anymore). Right now they're fighting with the Saudi's for what scraps they can get while the getting is good...

 

[pmclaine]

The Russians are just as dependent (economy wise) on selling their oil, as the Saudi's are. Russia has been pretty much relegated to selling their natural resources to keep their economy going (and why they really don't have a seat at the table of world powers anymore). Right now they're fighting with the Saudi's for what scraps they can get while the getting is good...

Yes but their energy has Europe by the balls..............unless.......................Europe were to buy more from us and keep our fracking industry viable.

What do you say Europe?

You going to let some little swedish chick boss you around?

Warm weather is moving in.

There might be a little bit of time to run this fight except for Turkey releasing the hordes to invade the north.......they are going to need more cooking oil for the schwarmas.

 

[pmclaine]

Kind of puts the pressure on Iran to come to the table.

 

[SilentStalkr]

Everyone freaking for no reason. This, imo, is all planned. Hell, I’m pretty sure some members of Congress said they’d tank the economy to keep DJT from getting elected. Call me crazy but that’s pretty interesting timing. Could be coincidence but....makes one wonder.

 

[pmclaine]

I think they are pulling the stunt too early.

Wife and I have differing opinions on this.

She has been having to do a bunch of educational stuff regarding CV at her work sucking up real productive work time.

Local school is freaking out causing panic in the kids.

Im like "Yawn!"

My attitude is not going over well with my wife and due to my current upper respiratory tract infection of non specific origin she is considering me with suspicion.

 

[SilentStalkr]

I think they are pulling the stunt too early.

Wife and I have differing opinions on this.

She has been having to do a bunch of educational stuff regarding CV at her work sucking up real productive work time.

Local school is freaking out causing panic in the kids.

Im like "Yawn!"

My attitude is not going over well with my wife and due to my current upper respiratory tract infection of non specific origin she is considering me with suspicion.

Im having similar problems figuring out this issue with the market. I go back and forth, on one hand I’m like yawn, on the other I’m trying to decide if I want to dump more money in it. Hmmmmm...

 

[THEIS]

Hi,

KSA especially MBS aligns with our highest ranking Republicans; not the Democrats so I would not look at this is planned in attempts to tank the economy to keep DJT from being reelected.

Last time I checked it was DJT businesses that had properties and property investments in KSA and UAE.....not the Dems.

This has been planned for months though...well before Russia voted against KSA for OPEC to limit production.......There is a reason SOFEX (Was supposed to be the end of this month) in Jordan was cancelled a few months back.

Ironically KSA and Russia are not "fighting" when it comes to defense equipment joint ventures, offsets and formations...Kalashnikov still building their monster manufacturing facility in KSA......KSA still purchasing the Russian Kamikaze drones, Russia is still training KSA Royal Families personal military (As is the USA), etc etc

Sincerely,
Theis

 

[Tahoe]

This came at a great time for me. I need to fill my 500 gallon propane tank and am going to wait to see how low prices will go.

If a bunch of Wall Street speculators lose their ass on this, no one will be losing any sleep over it. Fuck them. I never thought an essential commodity like gasoline should be able to be bought and traded by people never intending to take delivery of the item. A lot of people were hurting bad years ago when prices were $5 a gallon due to these parasites.

This parasite was short so you can thank me for helping bring you cheap gas.

 

[SilentStalkr]

Hi,

KSA especially MBS aligns with our highest ranking Republicans; not the Democrats so I would not look at this is planned in attempts to tank the economy to keep DJT from being reelected.

Last time I checked it was DJT businesses that had properties and property investments in KSA and UAE.....not the Dems.

This has been planned for months though...well before Russia voted against KSA for OPEC to limit production.......There is a reason SOFEX (Was supposed to be the end of this month) in Jordan was cancelled a few months back.

Ironically KSA and Russia are not "fighting" when it comes to defense equipment joint ventures, offsets and formations...Kalashnikov still building their monster manufacturing facility in KSA......KSA still purchasing the Russian Kamikaze drones, Russia is still training KSA Royal Families personal military (As is the USA), etc etc

Sincerely,
Theis

I think my point was somewhat missed. I don’t believe this was limited to the Dems. However, they were the ones that made the comment, specifically. Remember, all two sides of the same coin. I think this is the global oligarchy playing games. As you said, this has been planned for quite some time. It didn’t just happen yesterday. To what end yet? I don’t know.

 

[Mr.BR]

That's a tough space to be in right now. I gotta believe SA will blink first they need ~ $85/barrel to meet their debt service and Russia about $45. Plus there are a ton of powerful Saudis underwater on their ARAMCO investment. Midstream has been getting hammered for a year too even pipeline toll booths getting hammered with huge free cash flow and dividend coverage still obliterated today. Hang in there.

KSA will budge sooner than later

''The government's 2020 budget was predicted to have a $50 billion deficit or 6.4% of the Saudi GDP. But that was based on an estimated crude oil price of $62-63 per barrel, and assumed a crude production at around 9.8 million barrels per day.
Furthermore, Saudi Arabia listed its oil company publicly in December and pushed citizens to buy. About one fifth of all citizens bought shares, many taking loans to do so. Right now, Aramco shares are valued less than they were at the offering, and they are plummeting. Saudi Arabia needs to stabilize the oil market and faith in its own oil company or it will have a very disgruntled 20% of its population.

It seems quite likely that at some point, Saudi Arabia will feel pressured to do something to stabilize this market. The biggest question is how Saudi leaders will save face while doing it. ''


Russia not that likely to budge at all , as it has built up considerable financial buffer , runs a budget surplus and can play far , far longer game than the Sauds .

When people talk break even cost there are 2 diffrent break evens thrown around first is the cost of production , break even for that is under 8$ for both KSA and Russia way below shale and second break even is related to budgets of KSA or Russia , that means at what oil price govrment budgets are in black due to oil revenue boost to the budget . But we all know gov budgets can be run red for quite some time.

Shale will always bounce back once the oil price is high enough but in the meantime , it will get hit hard much harder than ever before as it will coincide with great financial crisis that is just starting.

 

[kthomas]

My companies stock took a dump today. Was in the mid 20’s now down to mid teens. Down from high 40’s to low 50’s this time last year.

Just turn that entire place to glass man.
Might be time to update my resume and find something outside O&G

This year could get really interesting for O&G folk...

 

[nikonNUT]

There’s a lot of blue light specials on most of the big name blue chip stocks of you have some money to load up your IRA’s.

I definitely jumped to soon. Funded my Roth last month for 2020 and am wishing I had sat on that 6K and left it in the money market account watching and waiting. Ah well, if investing was easy we'd all be rich, right?

As for the KSA... How much of their income actually comes from oil these days? I am truly curious.

 

[SilentStalkr]

I definitely jumped to soon. Funded my Roth last month for 2020 and am wishing I had sat on that 6K and left it in the money market account watching and waiting. Ah well, if investing was easy we'd all be rich, right?

As for the KSA... How much of their income actually comes from oil these days? I am truly curious.

Im trying to decide whether or not to pull the trigger tomorrow or not.

 

[Dewey7271]

Im trying to decide whether or not to pull the trigger tomorrow or not.

Keep an eye on the level about 1 1/2% below current. Technically that’s a key level. If it doesn’t hold then you’ll either want to wait a bit or plan on dollar cost averaging for a bit.

 

[Dewey7271]

Futures are having a decent evening, plus around 500 now, after DJT floated a payroll tax cut idea.

 

[SilentStalkr]

Keep an eye on the level about 1 1/2% below current. Technically that’s a key level. If it doesn’t hold then you’ll either want to wait a bit or plan on dollar cost averaging for a bit.

Im kind of getting an idea of waiting a wee bit longer but this is specifically for my 2019 ROTH IRA contribution I was holding out on. However, as you know, for it to count for 2019 I have to get it in before that magical date in April. So, I can’t wait too long. Thoughts?

 

[BootyLord]

Im kind of getting an idea of waiting a wee bit longer but this is specifically for my 2019 ROTH IRA contribution I was holding out on. However, as you know, for it to count for 2019 I have to get it in before that magical date in April. So, I can’t wait too long. Thoughts?

Buy more ammo

 

[Dewey7271]

Im kind of getting an idea of waiting a wee bit longer but this is specifically for my 2019 ROTH IRA contribution I was holding out on. However, as you know, for it to count for 2019 I have to get it in before that magical date in April. So, I can’t wait too long. Thoughts?

Should be a pretty good bounce today.
Yeah, you’re going to run short on time. I’d go ahead and add it as trying to time markets is full of danger.

 

[pmclaine]

Just ordered home heating oil at $1.65/gallon. I havent seen that price in over a decade.

Ill be filling the tank in the Pilot this morning also.

Money not spent on fuel is money spent on ammo.

 

[E. Bryant]

As for the KSA... How much of their income actually comes from oil these days? I am truly curious.

Around 90% comes from petroleum and petrochemical products. Their attempts to diversify beyond these products appears to have mostly failed.

 

[Mr.BR]

The biggest issue with KSA is that folks sit around on govement jobs or stipends while imported ,pracicaly slave labor does the actual work, anything a bit higher up the chain is done by western workforce. Besides that goverment is spending far too much cash financing terrorism and playing war around the ME & Africa.

Honestly when you have laws like ISIS , would you realy wan't to work or invest there .
Any time MBS feels like it , he shakes down folks for couple of billions and Ritz-Carlton hotel seems to be offering real long term torture dungeon in Riad. ''Give me all your money or off with your head'' seems as rather poor advertising slogan.

• Saudi Arabia reportedly used physical abuse to extract billions of dollars from some of the country's richest men.
• At least 17 arrested officials were hospitalized in the early stages of the crackdown, and one died in custody.
• The corruption probe, spearheaded by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, saw the arrests of more than 200 officials and businessmen, netting $100 billion in settlements. (actualy 37$ billion and promisess for future $$)

They just started a new shakedown couple fo days ago.

Bounce of the market today will likely be a short one as 'Orange man bad' just sold some bullshit , not any real measures anyone prepared in earnest.

 

[MarinePMI]

The biggest issue with KSA is that folks sit around on govement jobs or stipends while imported ,pracicaly slave labor does the actual work, anything a bit higher up the chain is done by western workforce. Besides that goverment is spending far too much cash financing terrorism and playing war around the ME & Africa.

Honestly when you have laws like ISIS , would you realy wan't to work or invest there .
Any time MBS feels like it , he shakes down folks for couple of billions and Ritz-Carlton hotel seems to be offering real long term torture dungeon in Raid. ''Give me all your money or off with your head'' seems as rather poor advertising slogan.

• Saudi Arabia reportedly used physical abuse to extract billions of dollars from some of the country's richest men.
• At least 17 arrested officials were hospitalized in the early stages of the crackdown, and one died in custody.
• The corruption probe, spearheaded by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, saw the arrests of more than 200 officials and businessmen, netting $100 billion in settlements. (actualy 37$ billion and promisess for future $$)

They just started a new shakedown couple fo days ago.

Bounce of the market today will likely be a short one as 'Orange man bad' just sold some bullshit , not any real measures anyone prepared in earnest.

You make the mistake of comparing their behavior to the moral code of the West. <shrug> They are a product of their environment. For them to change will take decades, and it will require them to use their existing environment (and all the accept practices) to change it. KSA is far from a black and white issue when it comes to policy and laws (and no, I'm not defending KSA, moreso being a realist about it).

 

[Dewey7271]

Great quote re: market, virus etc.

So for those chicken littles running around petrified about stocks, oil and a virus, let’s put this panic into perspective. We are living on a rock in space spinning one thousand miles per hour, traveling at 67 thousand miles per hour around the sun, spinning 450 thousand miles per hour around the center of the Milky Way while the universe is expanding at 151 thousand miles per hour. Now that’s something to cluck about.

 

[Dewey7271]

On the market, S and P has key support at 2730-2750. Prolonged trading below that takes us to 2018 levels.

 

[Jefe's Dope]

$1.88/gallon for gas at Sam's today. $1 by Memorial Day?

 

[SilentStalkr]

On the market, S and P has key support at 2730-2750. Prolonged trading below that takes us to 2018 levels.

Message me. I think I’m going to hold off until the end of the week.

 

[Mr.BR]

Suprised that TSLA is not loosing more.

Tesla short sellers have made $1.3 billion today alone as the stock plunged (TSLA)
https://markets.businessinsider.com...-coronavirus-market-selloff-2020-3-1028977935

 

[Jefe's Dope]

 

[TheGerman]

Highest market ever over the course of what, 2 years?

It drops a bit over the coarse of a week.

Oh Teh NOES!

 

[tomcatmv]

Was just talking with my brother about this a couple days ago. He's a refinery operator for Shell at their petro-chem unit in the Houston area. He was telling me how Shell has just put their Anacortes, WA refinery on the market and the word is the woman sr. exec in charge of that is now going to be put in charge of his plant so the scuttlebutt is that Shell is really looking at divestiture in oil and gas. My bro is not really worried as he is going to retire in a year or two anyway. But in his opinion (and a lot of his co-workers) it's a dying industry other than the petro-chem side and maybe natural gas.

 

[Mr.BR]

Oil price turns negative as storage capacity is getting overfilled.

Oil Producers Will Pay You $54/Barrel To Take South Texas Sour Off Their Hands

 

[blbennett1288]

Was just talking with my brother about this a couple days ago. He's a refinery operator for Shell at their petro-chem unit in the Houston area. He was telling me how Shell has just put their Anacortes, WA refinery on the market and the word is the woman sr. exec in charge of that is now going to be put in charge of his plant so the scuttlebutt is that Shell is really looking at divestiture in oil and gas. My bro is not really worried as he is going to retire in a year or two anyway. But in his opinion (and a lot of his co-workers) it's a dying industry other than the petro-chem side and maybe natural gas.

Shell just brought online in 2019 the largest production platform in the Gulf of Mexico and is looking to boost production. Shell’s actions speak louder than their words.

 

[Nik H]

Man! How nice would that be. Like a 10K gal underground tank.

How long can you keep fuel for in one of those if you add stabilizers?

I have a 1500 gallon underground tank for heating oil...it is really nice to have

 

[Nik H]

Just checked....home heating oil at $1.87/gallon if I buy right now.

Was $2.40/gallon three weeks or so ago when I filled up.

Ill be filling the tank soon and stocking in ammo with the savings.

I have a 1,500 gallon underground tank for heating fuel. It has about 500 gallons left. Will be filling soon.

I just filled up all 3 cars today with premium @2.31/gallon....I hope it goes to $1/barrel

 

[Nik H]

It's possible that this all blows over in a month or two, and that we'll be back to Dow 30k by summer.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

I love it...

Optimism is a good thing....however, you're Jenga tower is a more likely alternative.

Although, I don't know shit. If I did, I would have made money over the last few weeks. Can't risk capital now when my job may not exist in a month due to the liberal fucks and an impotent POTUS

 

[armorpl8chikn]

I'm buying stock in graph chart generators.

 

[Bigfatcock]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

I love it...

Optimism is a good thing....however, you're Jenga tower is a more likely alternative.

Although, I don't know shit. If I did, I would have made money over the last few weeks. Can't risk capital now when my job may not exist in a month due to the liberal fucks and an impotent POTUS

Money has been raining from the sky. This is the easiest money I’ve ever taken from the market.

 

[Nik H]

Money has been raining from the sky. This is the easiest money I’ve ever taken from the market.

I'm sure and I am glad you did. I am glad for anyone that did.

I really had to fight myself when it hit the first bottom on 3/23 but I have 3 young kids to put through college starting in a year. Can't take the chance on being wrong and then being out of a job.

 

[Bigfatcock]

This market makes absolutely no sense right now. I caught the first bottom, dumped at near the high, and caught the second bottom. Have been mostly day trading since and leaving my long positions to grow.

It’s just damn weird.

 

[Nik H]

My attitude is not going over well with my wife and due to my current upper respiratory tract infection of non specific origin she is considering me with suspicion.

Better keep one eye open when sleeping

 

[Nik H]

This market makes absolutely no sense right now. I caught the first bottom, dumped at near the high, and caught the second bottom. Have been mostly day trading since and leaving my long positions to grow.

It’s just damn weird.

It is scary when none of the fundamentals or news has any impact. However, I did learn a long time ago that the market is 99.999% efficient and has discounted any information before we ever see it.

Maybe that is all the explanation necessary.

That being said, it would imply that the support levels are where we see them today and I am not so sure.

I am not sure about anything anymore.

Well i am sure that I still like girls and shooting my AIs

 

[Mr.BR]

This market makes absolutely no sense right now. I caught the first bottom, dumped at near the high, and caught the second bottom. Have been mostly day trading since and leaving my long positions to grow.

It’s just damn weird.

Its not really a market anymore but some soviet style central planing shitshow.

 

[E. Bryant]

This market makes absolutely no sense right now.

/thread

 

[Mr.BR]

Funny when cheap fuel is suddenly bad
And if Saudi oil is on its way to US its because someone bought it

Flotilla of Saudi Oil Threatens to Worsen U.S. Supply Glut

A fleet of tankers full of Saudi oil is slowly making its way to the U.S. Gulf Coast, threatening to worsen an already historic oversupply of crude.

www.wsj.com

 

[308pirate]

That would screw the US economy.

Can you explain how?

As long as that move isn't driven by government fiat, it won't.

 

[308pirate]

All the political bullshit aside, let's face it; we're watching the world economy begin to change from being driven by oil/petroleum. What that new dominant market driver will be is unclear, but oil is ending it's reign of controlling world markets. Even the Saudi"s know it (they have been frantically trying to move their economy away from oil for years now).

Just like when the Venetians cornered the world market on salt in the 1500's, the Saudi's have enjoyed a bountiful time; but everything eventually comes to an end when technology mitigates a strangle hold that someone holds on the world's economies...kind of like when the Chinese figured out how to make brine wells for cheap, inexpensive salt.

Tokamak, pinch, Z-pinch; they're all coming down the pike...

Yep, mastering self sustaining fusion will break petroleum and the entire middle east for good.

We will most likely hold the entire world by the balls for a while

 

[vh20]

It's possible that this all blows over in a month or two, and that we'll be back to Dow 30k by summer. But man, I remember similar predictions in 2008, and the "rational optimists" got their faces ripped off by what followed.

I do agree with your rationale for uncertainty. However I will point out that in the example listed above we had a President at the time who pretty much did everything he could to prevent that recovery (whether intentional, or through sheer agenda-driven incompetence).

 

[E. Bryant]

I do agree with your rationale for uncertainty. However I will point out that in the example listed above we had a President at the time who pretty much did everything he could to prevent that recovery (whether intentional, or through sheer agenda-driven incompetence).

Yes, I agree - GW Bush did not handle the 2008 meltdown well.

 

[vh20]

Yes, I agree - GW Bush did not handle the 2008 meltdown well.

You well know that was not my point. You want to blame the meltdown on him, I won't argue. He had nothing to do with the recovery though. He was out of office. Your response is knowingly misleading.