I work for one of the largest Wholesale Building Product Distribution companies in the US. Have been here for over 20 years. In my time I have seen the lumber and panel markets come and go. I went though the screaming market from 04-06 when you didn't have to be a salesman to sell, just needed material. Then went through the housing bubble in 07-08 and the terrible years that followed.
I have never seen anything like what we are going through now. With housing inventories at all time lows, Canadian tariffs, Chinese tariffs then Covid, its truly a perfect storm.
Supply is the issue, as bad as Covid got in the US, South America, where we get a huge supply of our building products, is still raging, Im sure you see the news reports. Only about 3% of the population has been vaccinated and healthcare is not even close to what the US has. With China being pretty much cut off because of tariffs, production had to move to other SE Asian countries, when Covid hit travel restrictions stopped this from happening. Now they are able to travel spool up times for these new mills are extremely slow.
The largest factor now is Ocean freight and the clogging of all our ports. Last year we were importing millwork for $2000 per container, now its $12,000. Not to mention transportation in the US has gone up exponentially as well.
The days of $5 7/16 OSB and $3 studs is over. I believe we are in a new normal on pricing. Will it come down again? Certainly but not back to the cheap levels everyone is used to. Its going to take some time for a market correction and I don't see that happening until late 2022.
Just my 2 cents
