In the meantime, the federal government has to work with the tools at its disposal. That means it should enact a program of universal mandatory testing once the outbreak has receded—i.e., require that everyone get tested for the virus. Only, then, when testing shows that they are not infectious, can they end their practice of social isolation and distancing. Everyone found to be uninfected or immune after being infected and recovering could receive a certificate authorizing them to return to work and congregating with others so certified.
While a few legal experts may question the government’s authority to make testing mandatory, the government clearly has powers to promote people’s safety on a mandatory basis, from legally enforceable clean air standards and child labor laws to the requirements to use safety belts.
All Americans will fall into one of three groups: Group 1: the millions of people who have contracted the coronavirus and recovered. Of course, scientists are not yet fully certain that those people will develop immunity, but there is some basis for optimism. The CDC has
said that people infected with a similar coronavirus, MERS, were highly unlikely to be re-infected after recovering. Other researchers
report that the Covid-19 virus does not mutate easily, a prerequisite for the antibody response that would make people immune to reinfection.
There is less evidence, however, about whether those who have recovered are unable to infect others. But we can derive a reasonable answer from undertaking a round of mass tracking. The United States, China, Italy, Spain and many other countries need to start collectively tracking recovered coronavirus patients to see how many, if any, show up re-infected or have infected others.
If two-sided immunity holds, those recovered from the infection would be the first wave to return to work and community life. In Germany, scientists from the Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research are
conducting a pilot program along these lines, testing 100,000 people for Covid-19 antibodies and issuing “immunity certificates. ”What about everyone else? They fall into Groups Two and Three.
Group Two would be the majority of people who have not been infected and are still vulnerable to catching Covid-19. In theory, they also could return to something like normal life—but only if they are protected from contact with those actively infected.
Those people comprise Group Three, current COVID-19 patients, including pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic carriers. They will pose an enormous risk. Once new infections slow, some people actively infected will try to forgo any universal testing and return to work and social life, where they will infect others with the virus. Therefore, the testing regime with require sanctions. One idea: Employers who take back or hire anyone without the requisite certificate would either forgo or have to repay any of the financial support Congress has provided businesses. Those actively infected who try to masquerade as a member of Groups One or Two could be placed in government quarantine and held legally liable for anyone they infected.