Well, they both may think they have their victory plans assured...
But, to steal from Patton, who stole from Moltke who stole from Clausewitz, who probably stole from Sun Tzu... who probably stole it from some Egyptian... : "No plan survives after the first shot." Hey, at least I am citing who I stole from!
If this thing kicks off as a land war, think Iran Iraq war with huge human wave and infantry attacks once the 'tech weapons' are expended.
If it start with with popping a nuke... (and Pakistan, based on the religion of peace) has a "First Use" policy that they are willing to use their nukes in a first strike against a nuclear-armed enemy. And their government is unstable enough to do it...
Well, if that happens, we'll be witness to some real history! And carnage like never seen before. Both have a lot of cannon fodder as both have some 60 percent of their population under 30. For India this means some 400,000,000 men. For Pakistan it's about 80 million men under 30. Pakistan can't stand that kind of overmatch in a ground slug-out. So bring on the nukes.
And since neither has really accurate nukes and a tactical exchange is not going to be helpful.... The Populations in Indian and Pakistan's major cities probably become the targets:
Pakistan:
Kararachi | 18,868,021(+26.49%) | | | | | | |
Lahore | 13,004,135(+16.88%) | | | | | | |
Faisalabad | 3,691,999(+15.20%) | | | | | | |
Rawalpindi | 3,357,612(+60.02%) | | | | | | |
Gujranwala | 2,511,118 (+23.88%) | | | | | | |
India:
| | | | |
Mumbai | 12,442,373 | | | |
Delhi | 11,034,555 | | | |
Bengaluru | 8,443,675 | | | |
Hyderabad | 6,993,262 | | | |
Ahmedabad | 5,577,940 | | | |
^^^ And there are a dozen more in India with populations between 5 million and 2 million...
If things go nuclear, the whole 'living will envy the dead' scenario will be very real. Since there will be no resources or care or medicine... that can deal with the aftermath on those scales. Not in the whole world put together. Nothing anyone will be able to do except to watch and wail... and assign blame.
And if they do go nuclear, the "Blame Trump" freak show will turn up to 11... blaming him for the war. And saying it is all USA's fault. The Muzzies will rally around Pakistan even if they fire first.
Best thing that can happen if they "Release the hounds" is that the world quarantines them both and says... "Your mess, you clean it up." And doesn't give either side one cent for recovery. Not that there enough resources. Though I am sure CBS News will be on the ground with reporters in lead suits crying... and Doctors Without Borders (or scruples) will irradiate a few socialist MD's to try and make a point.
Both of them are playing a really, really dangerous game of FAFO. But if there is 'going' to be a nuclear war eventually, having two minor powers (in relative terms) go at it in an isolated area (in relative terms) may wake folks up to stop with the FAFO shit. Before two countries that 'matter' think it's a good idea.
Not that we will as a human race. Because it's what we do. And, remember, the Paks may be the 'religion of peace' and committed to a first use policy. But the Indians have a long view of history being about destruction and rebirth... and accepting destruction and its aftermath is in their DNA, too. Plus they have a billion plus pieces of cannon fodder. And might also be crazy and Xenophobic enough to go for a preemptive strike.
Well, on the bright side, together they don't have enough megatons to create global armageddon. That is unless Pakistan decides that they will pop one in Haifa Harbor using some ready-to-be-dismantled cargo ship from Alang... to try and bring in the rest of the Arabs on their side. That would get ugly real fast. Or if China invaded South and West... Or if Putin used the excuse to grab back some 'Stans.
Scenario generation is always interesting, isn't it? Lots of ways things can go. And I am sure that in ThinkTanks and General Staff HQ's they are doing exactly these same brain games... Which will come up with all kinds of great scenarios that will be totally valiid.
Until the first shot is fired.
Buy more ammo! And stock up on Basmati rice if you are so inclined. And don't have any problems with electronics that require a call center. Because, well, pressing 1 for English may well get you someone in Kansas, soon. Not Rawnalpindi!
Wonder how long it takes to rebuild car parts and cheap electronics industries back in the USA? Because getting Range Rover and tractor parts may get kind of tough for a while. Aren't you glad you have a Mahindra now?
Sirhr