Inflation.......... ?

[Hobo Hilton]

“This inflation is here to stay,” said JPMorgan Asset & Wealth Management CEO Mary Callahan Erdoes.

Unilever CEO Alan Jope said on CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on September 6, “We’re not seeing an easing off in our landed costs. So, any early optimism that inflation has peaked is misplaced.”

Nineteen percent of CFOs now say they expect a recession in the fourth quarter of this year, up from 13% in Q2.

Inflation has yet to peak, CFOs say, and recession is already here or soon to hit

A majority of CFOs surveyed by CNBC said they do not think inflation has peaked, and some expect a recession for the economy sooner than previously forecast.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Drought is drying up the crucial US water artery. That means less room for vessels shipping out corn and soybeans, the biggest US crops. Barge rates reached $49.88 per ton on Tuesday, the highest on record and up nearly 50% from a year ago, according to a government report released Thursday.

Drought Pushes Mississippi River Grain Shipping Rate to a Record

(Bloomberg) -- American farmers face yet another supply-chain headache just as harvest season moves into high gear: Not enough barges on a shrinking Mississippi River. Most Read from BloombergMacKenzie Scott Files for Divorce From Science Teacher HusbandMeta to Cut Headcount for First Time...

ca.finance.yahoo.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

German Inflation Hits Double Digits for First Time in Euro Era

(Bloomberg) -- German inflation reached double digits for the first time since the euro was introduced more than 20 years ago, surging more than anticipated after temporary government-relief measures ended and Europe’s energy crisis worsened.Most Read from BloombergApple Ditches iPhone...

nz.news.yahoo.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

High prices and rising interest rates are putting used cars out of reach for a growing number of car shoppers.
That’s bad news for CarMax, the nation’s largest used car dealer. CarMax reported Thursday that its earnings plunged 54% as the number of cars it sold in the quarter fell 6.4% compared to a year ago.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/29/business/used-cars-unaffordable/index.html

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Aluminium and nickel prices rose sharply on Thursday as traders fretted about supply shortages after the London Metal Exchange announced that it was considering banning new Russian metals from entering the market. The exchange is deciding whether to publish a discussion paper about how to deal with Russian material, according to its chief executive Matthew Chamberlain. Market participants with knowledge of the plan said the paper would include the possibility of banning new Russian metal from entering the market. While the UK and Europe have imposed sanctions on Russian oil and coal, no equivalent measures have been taken for metals. Russia accounts for about 20 per cent of global nickel production outside China, and 13 per cent of aluminum production outside China.

Subscribe to read

www.ft.com

 

[KZP]

Aluminium and nickel prices rose sharply on Thursday as traders fretted about supply shortages after the London Metal Exchange announced that it was considering banning new Russian metals from entering the market. The exchange is deciding whether to publish a discussion paper about how to deal with Russian material, according to its chief executive Matthew Chamberlain. Market participants with knowledge of the plan said the paper would include the possibility of banning new Russian metal from entering the market. While the UK and Europe have imposed sanctions on Russian oil and coal, no equivalent measures have been taken for metals. Russia accounts for about 20 per cent of global nickel production outside China, and 13 per cent of aluminum production outside China.

Subscribe to read

www.ft.com

"Why do we need Russian metals when we have digital stuff like Bitcoin?" - Author of paper

 

[RUTGERS95]

block metals and all hats are off on inflation and availability of goods

 

[lariat]

block metals and all hats are off on inflation and availability of goods

It’s already happening in a sense. An aluminum and a steel plant have shut down in the US, a steel mill in Germany was mothballed due to electricity concerns and metals coming out of Russia have been reduced for some time. Right now if I want to buy 416 stainless it’s at a huge price over what it was. 6061-t6 bar is through the roof, and if you want it in 12” diameter good luck. Obviously pushing Russia out will increase costs more, but the prices have increasing for some time. I’m not sure some businesses can keep absorbing the costs.

 

[DarnYankeeUSMC]

Russia, the biggest threat to the WEF/NWO. They are willing to deal with total economic collapse and all things related to it in order to fuck Russia.

Aluminium and nickel prices rose sharply on Thursday as traders fretted about supply shortages after the London Metal Exchange announced that it was considering banning new Russian metals from entering the market. The exchange is deciding whether to publish a discussion paper about how to deal with Russian material, according to its chief executive Matthew Chamberlain. Market participants with knowledge of the plan said the paper would include the possibility of banning new Russian metal from entering the market. While the UK and Europe have imposed sanctions on Russian oil and coal, no equivalent measures have been taken for metals. Russia accounts for about 20 per cent of global nickel production outside China, and 13 per cent of aluminum production outside China.

Subscribe to read

www.ft.com

The number of people living in ignorant bliss are going to have a bad surprise. Bread and circuses or should I say Facebook Twitter TICTOC and McDonald's.

 

[E. Bryant]

But metal is everywhere - what do you mean we can't just get whatever we want whenever we want it? I'm an American, damnit.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

But metal is everywhere - what do you mean we can't just get whatever we want whenever we want it? I'm an American, damnit.

Repurposing.
We may see the return of "The Village Blacksmith"...

The Village Blacksmith

Under a spreading chestnut-tree

poets.org

 

[devildog93]

Repurposing.
We may see the return of "The Village Blacksmith"...

The Village Blacksmith

Under a spreading chestnut-tree

poets.org

Wouldn't that be neat. People with actual skills being elevated in status. Guys that can fabricate/cannibalize/re-purpose will get their due. Seems like that would be one upside to things turning bad. People with very few skills are going to struggle.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Wouldn't that be neat. People with actual skills being elevated in status. Guys that can fabricate/cannibalize/re-purpose will get their due. Seems like that would be one upside to things turning bad. People with very few skills are going to struggle.

Montana Tech blacksmith club gives students training under fire

Ashbaugh started the Blacksmith and Caster Club in 2019 to give students a chance to apply what they’ve learned by using high heat, anvils, and hammers to forge tools.

www.kpax.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Act surprised.

Fed's preferred gauge shows inflation accelerated even more than expected in August

The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy rose 0.6% for the month after being flat in July.

www.cnbc.com

 

[RUTGERS95]

rate of growth is slowing which is good and I suspect we'll start to see this come down. don't forget, the hurricane is going to bite in consumption although that will be factored in. The real issue is supply of goods and services from raw materials which is a key driver. What a mess the FED and gov't has created

 

[Hobo Hilton]

rate of growth is slowing which is good and I suspect we'll start to see this come down. don't forget, the hurricane is going to bite in consumption although that will be factored in. The real issue is supply of goods and services from raw materials which is a key driver. What a mess the FED and gov't has created

Just a personal thought I have had as this fiasco developed.
America has been a strong leader for all of my lifetime. A "Made in America" sticker was a sign of pride. That has changed.
The rest of the civilized world has been lead down this "Rabbit Hole" by America.
Those countries and their people will suffer in the future due to this.
For the rest of our lifetime, the world will be very reluctant to "follow America".
This will be a handicap on our children, grand children and great grand children. Tough to overcome.

JMHO

 

[E. Bryant]

What a fucking hack

 

[RUTGERS95]

Just a personal thought I have had as this fiasco developed.
America has been a strong leader for all of my lifetime. A "Made in America" sticker was a sign of pride. That has changed.
The rest of the civilized world has been lead down this "Rabbit Hole" by America.
Those countries and their people will suffer in the future due to this.
For the rest of our lifetime, the world will be very reluctant to "follow America".
This will be a handicap on our children, grand children and great grand children. Tough to overcome.

JMHO

noting wrong with MAGA term and yet the left decries it. America first, all else 99

 

[Hobo Hilton]

DETROIT – Ford Motor is increasing the starting price of its electric F-150 Lightning pickup by $5,000 for the 2023 model year, citing rising costs and supply chain issues.
The new price of the 2023 Lightning Pro, an entry-level model meant for commercial and business customers, will be $51,974 – up nearly 11% from previous pricing and a 30% increase from the original $39,974 price in May 2021.

Ford hikes starting price of electric F-150 Lightning for second time in less than two months

Ford is increasing the entry-level price of its electric F-150 Lightning pickup by $5,000 for the 2023 model year due to rising costs and supply chain issues.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Ison]

Seniors are the only age group with more poverty. Here's why — USA TODAY

A million more seniors fell into poverty last year, the only age group to see a rise. Analysts say it's only going to get worse as inflation soars.

apple.news

Pay around 40% or more of your salary in taxes your whole life and live in poverty as a senior. I’m counting all taxes paid (Federal, State, SS, sales tax, property tax, capital gains, ect..). I’m sure these numbers will get much worse in the future.... Slaves to the system.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Seniors are the only age group with more poverty. Here's why — USA TODAY

A million more seniors fell into poverty last year, the only age group to see a rise. Analysts say it's only going to get worse as inflation soars.

apple.news

Pay around 40% or more of your salary in taxes your whole life and live in poverty as a senior. I’m counting all taxes paid (Federal, State, SS, sales tax, property tax, capital gains, ect..). I’m sure these numbers will get much worse in the future.... Slaves to the system.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

As the end of 2022 approaches, consumers are starting to get those annual or bi-annual bills. They have seen the inflation growing weekly at the gas station or grocery store. Now, they will be able to see how much larger those annual bills are going up. No relief in sight. Never mind what the "Government Numbers" are showing.
____________
Ahead of the release of the latest consumer price index reading this week, Allianz Chief Economic Adviser Mohamed El-Erian told CBS’ “Face The Nation” Sunday that he predicts headline inflation “will probably come down to about 8%,” but that core inflation “is still going up.”

Allianz Chief Economic Adviser El-Erian believes core inflation 'is still going up'

Allianz Chief Economic Adviser Mohamed El-Erian said he predicts headline inflation "will probably come down to about 8%," but that core inflation "is still going up."

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The Government is removing "Trade Services" from PPI... I wonder why that is being done ?

Trade in services

Trade in services records the value of services exchanged between residents and non-residents of an economy, including services provided through foreign affiliates established abroad.

data.oecd.org

Wholesale prices rose 0.4% in September, more than expected as inflation persists

The producer price index was expected to rise 0.2% in September, according to Dow Jones estimates.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Gwak2006]

The Government is removing "Trade Services" from PPI... I wonder why that is being done ?

View attachment 7974974

Trade in services

Trade in services records the value of services exchanged between residents and non-residents of an economy, including services provided through foreign affiliates established abroad.

data.oecd.org

Wholesale prices rose 0.4% in September, more than expected as inflation persists

The producer price index was expected to rise 0.2% in September, according to Dow Jones estimates.

www.cnbc.com

Can we do this in PRS? I would be a lot better if we didn't count the bad shots.

 

[NoDopes]

Seniors are the only age group with more poverty. Here's why — USA TODAY

A million more seniors fell into poverty last year, the only age group to see a rise. Analysts say it's only going to get worse as inflation soars.

apple.news

Pay around 40% or more of your salary in taxes your whole life and live in poverty as a senior. I’m counting all taxes paid (Federal, State, SS, sales tax, property tax, capital gains, ect..). I’m sure these numbers will get much worse in the future.... Slaves to the system.

It has to be higher than 40%. Don't forget, you pay into SS your entire life.. then when you start getting a little bit back.. They TAX IT AGAIN

 

[Ison]

It has to be higher than 40%. Don't forget, you pay into SS your entire life.. then when you start getting a little bit back.. They TAX IT AGAIN

Probably around 50% but I was being conservative.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

If the Government is willing to give up 8.7% you can bet inflation is way more than that number.

Amid record high inflation, Social Security beneficiaries will get an 8.7% increase to their benefits in 2023, the highest increase in 40 years.
The Social Security Administration announced the change on Thursday. It will result in a benefit increase of more than $140 more per month on average starting in January.

Social Security cost-of-living adjustment will be 8.7% in 2023, highest increase in 40 years

High inflation will prompt a record Social Security cost-of-living increase in 2023. Here's what that means for benefits.

www.cnbc.com

 

[E. Bryant]

Inflation increased 0.4% in September, more than expected despite rate hikes

The consumer price index was expected to increase 0.3% in September, according to Dow Jones estimates.

www.cnbc.com

+0.4 in September, 8.2% year-over-year (0.6% and 6.6% excluding food and energy). Completely shocking to anyone who doesn't do his own shopping.

Given the market's response to this, I'm struggling to believe the narrative that rate hikes are already priced into the market. Capitulation hasn't yet occurred.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Inflation increased 0.4% in September, more than expected despite rate hikes

The consumer price index was expected to increase 0.3% in September, according to Dow Jones estimates.

www.cnbc.com

+0.4 in September, 8.2% year-over-year (0.6% and 6.6% excluding food and energy). Completely shocking to anyone who doesn't do his own shopping.

Given the market's response to this, I'm struggling to believe the narrative that rate hikes are already priced into the market. Capitulation hasn't yet occurred.

I'm not seeing any factors to change these pattern's between now and the end of 2022. Recession wise, we are well into 2023.... The 8.7% increase in Social Security validates these inflated prices are here to stay.... Seeing the "New Norm".... Plan accordingly.

 

[babyguppy]

If the Government is willing to give up 8.7% you can bet inflation is way more than that number.

Amid record high inflation, Social Security beneficiaries will get an 8.7% increase to their benefits in 2023, the highest increase in 40 years.
The Social Security Administration announced the change on Thursday. It will result in a benefit increase of more than $140 more per month on average starting in January.

Social Security cost-of-living adjustment will be 8.7% in 2023, highest increase in 40 years

High inflation will prompt a record Social Security cost-of-living increase in 2023. Here's what that means for benefits.

www.cnbc.com

my shocked faced.. knowing it's a HELL OF A LOT HIGHER.
Stalin told the news reporter, to rewrite their article. "People are NOT starving; they are suffering the effects of malnutrition."

It doesn't matter who they vote for, they always vote for us.​

​

Joseph Stalin​

 

[lariat]

I'm not seeing any factors to change these pattern's between now and the end of 2022. Recession wise, we are well into 2023.... The 8.7% increase in Social Security validates these inflated prices are here to stay.... Seeing the "New Norm".... Plan accordingly.

The increase was never going to decrease. Inflation may slow but there is no intention to stop it. If anyone has been thinking otherwise they have not been paying attention.

 

[Gwak2006]

The increase was never going to decrease. Inflation may slow but there is no intention to stop it. If anyone has been thinking otherwise they have not been paying attention.

This is the truth. It was the plan from the beginning

 

[Hobo Hilton]

No one expected the Federal Reserve to be able to smother inflation swiftly. But after seven months of rapidly rising interest rates, the central bank has hardly made a dent.
Thursday’s look at the September consumer price data shows we’re not much better off now than we were in March, when the Fed began its aggressive monetary tightening. Back then, overall consumer prices were up 8.5% year over year. Now, they’re up 8.2%.
Core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy categories and are widely seen as a more reliable barometer of underlying inflation, hit 6.6% annually in September — their highest since 1982.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/13/business/fed-interest-rates-inflation-nightcap/index.html

 

[RUTGERS95]

cpi is a lagging indicator and won't show for 6ish mos

 

[NoDopes]

https://kolozeg.org/?p=629451

The major deficit problem has been rising prices for imported gas and oil, and products such as aluminum and fertilizer requiring heavy energy inputs for their production. And as the euro’s exchange rate declines against the dollar, the cost of carrying Europe’s US-dollar debt – the normal condition for affiliates of U.S. multinationals –rises, squeezing profits.

This is not the kind of depression in which “automatic stabilizers” can work to restore economic balance. Energy dependency is structural

Predicts a decade of pain.

 

[NoDopes]

Coming soon to America.

Empty Shelves in German Supermarkets as Inflation Hits Food Products

Supermarkets are being left with empty shelves throughout Germany, as inflation renders the sale of a wide variety of products unprofitable.

www.breitbart.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Coming soon to America.

Empty Shelves in German Supermarkets as Inflation Hits Food Products

Supermarkets are being left with empty shelves throughout Germany, as inflation renders the sale of a wide variety of products unprofitable.

www.breitbart.com

Can't say we were not warned.

 

[jrhtx]

Just had to have 2 HVAC systems installed. 2 different counties, 2 different contractors. Both told me systems were up 40% from last year and quality is poor and availability is spotty. Compressors and evaporator coils failing at very high rates. One contractor said a customer just waited 5 weeks for a warranty replacement coil. I waited 7 weeks to have the system installed at the ranch due to equipment and their work load. This contractor has 4 install crews working 5 days/week. Other contractor had a crew/equipment available the next day but I have been a customer for many years. These are Trane and Lenox systems.

 

[Alpine 338]

But somehow people still have lots of money, and keep spending it. Local home builder contractors are all booked out two to three years here.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

But somehow people still have lots of money, and keep spending it. Local home builder contractors are all booked out two to three years here.

I am seeing that, also. Seems the people with a lot of money in the bank are converting it to "housing"... That tells me, in the future they think a house is a better hedge against inflation than "money in the bank".

 

[Bigfatcock]

I am seeing that, also. Seems the people with a lot of money in the bank are converting it to "housing"... That tells me, in the future they think a house is a better hedge against inflation than "money in the bank".

I’ve been screaming this since 2020.

 

[E. Bryant]

The cheap money is still being spent. Fed tightening takes many months to take effect, so give it time.

BTW, this isn't some sort of rational investment. People are just spending for the sake of spending because they see other people spending. If this was rational behavior, they'd understand that their big investment purchased with 3% rates will have a substantially lower value at 8% rates, and they'd park money elsewhere. But parking money elsewhere doesn't look as good as four bedrooms, three stalls, and a fancy outdoor kitchen.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Interesting. As people leave the shit holes the rent is dropping. A half hearted attempt to down play inflation.

Rent got cheaper in September—here are the 10 U.S. cities where it dropped the most

The cost of rent dipped slightly in September, the first decrease in several months.

www.cnbc.com

 

[NoDopes]

 

[SilentStalkr]

But somehow people still have lots of money, and keep spending it. Local home builder contractors are all booked out two to three years here.

This is what I can’t figure out. Where are they getting it?

 

[Bigfatcock]

This is what I can’t figure out. Where are they getting it?

Credit cards and HELOCs

 

[Earnhardt]

Credit cards and HELOCs

For housing?
Not here…
The majority of It’s Boomer retirement/pensions, investments, real estate sales, inheritance, etc…

Cash in hand and very few mortgages/refinancing

 

[Hobo Hilton]

This is what I can’t figure out. Where are they getting it?

There were billions of USD's $$$ handed out during the pandemic..... "Free Money"........ A lot of this free money is building mansions for the CEO's and Business Owners who took the money..... There has been virtually no reconciliation of the billions of USD's. It would look bad on the Government if they started investigating and prosecuting.

 

[babyguppy]

remember 2008(ish)
HELOC's - housing prices doubled, everyone ran out and got equity on there house, that 250k house; now worth 400 - 500K. bubble pops, your house is now worth 150K. Uh o, chapter 10, dump it and start again.
Good news, all that furniture you bought, you get to keep

 

[Hobo Hilton]

remember 2008(ish)
HELOC's - housing prices doubled, everyone ran out and got equity on there house, that 250k house; now worth 400 - 500K. bubble pops, your house is now worth 150K. Uh o, chapter 10, dump it and start again.
Good news, all that furniture you bought, you get to keep

Deja Vu