Inflation.......... ?

[chrome]

"The debt would grow to 102 percent of GDP by the end of 2021, to 107 percent by 2031, and 202 percent by 2051..."

"It also predicted that by 2051, the federal government will be SPENDING MORE THAN A QUARTER OF ITS ANNUAL BUDGET JUST TO PAY INTEREST ON THE PRINCIPAL. But those estimates came before the $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief bill was passed."

-CBO/CRFB

 

[WaltHer]

3.61?

You behind enemy lines?

Montucky, brother. Freedom isn't free...

 

[KYAggie]

In 2013 I bought a new stripped Jeep Wrangler (roll up windows, auto, freedom top) for 26K. Last week I traded it (83K miles) for 18K = 1K depreciation/yr. Lots of dollars chasing too few goods.

In February 2020, I bought a used Toyota 4 Runner TRD Pro with 21,900 miles on it for $37,500. Today, my same vehicle with 29,000 miles routinely lists for over $45,000. That’s the first time I’ve bought a used vehicle and had its value go up ever. Meanwhile, I keep getting emails from my Toyota dealer who services my 2017 Tundra that they want to buy it from me for about $3000 less than I paid for it four years ago; it has 25,000 miles on it. My wife hasn’t faired so well with her 2017 Volvo XC90......it’s street value is about half what she paid for it, and I bet the cost of a new one is mind bending. Crazy times we live in.

 

[Dolomite_Supafly]

Food supply/shortage is what is scary to me. Been watching the shelves around me slowly, over the last year or so, dwindle. Nothing important yet but there are a lot more things sold out today than a year ago. I ask and get told they are on order with no delivery date set. Also, prices on food are skyrocketing and fast.

We had a fridge start to go three days before Christmas. I lucked out and bought a beat up floor model for full price. Took two days of searching before I could find one. As I was buying mine off the floor an older gentleman was inquiring about his fridge he ordered in June. They told him it would be at least until March but likely at least another year. He sold his old fridge the the day before his new one was to be delivered.

Try finding a plain white T shirt right now. Been needing a few packs for a few months but no stores in my area have anything other than extra small and XXXXXXXXXL.

Every single industry is being affected by this. And every single industry is suffering shortages, either from lack of funds to buy or just lack of materials. I believe we are about to see some very, very dark times indeed.

 

[Bigfatcock]

In February 2020, I bought a used Toyota 4 Runner TRD Pro with 21,900 miles on it for $37,500. Today, my same vehicle with 29,000 miles routinely lists for over $45,000. That’s the first time I’ve bought a used vehicle and had its value go up ever. Meanwhile, I keep getting emails from my Toyota dealer who services my 2017 Tundra that they want to buy it from me for about $3000 less than I paid for it four years ago; it has 25,000 miles on it. My wife hasn’t faired so well with her 2017 Volvo XC90......it’s street value is about half what she paid for it, and I bet the cost of a new one is mind bending. Crazy times we live in.

Vehicle prices are nuts. I got an oil change for my 2014 Nissan Titan Pro-4x with 120,000 miles, and the dealership offers me $15,500 as is on it. That’s a 7 year old vehicle.

My last 4Runner oil change the dealer offered me $30,500 for my 2019 4Runner. That’s only $500 less than I paid for it new!

The issue is, to replace those vehicles I’d be in the High $50k arena for the Titan, and the high $30k-$40k arena for the 4Runner.

Ridiculus.

Shit, try buying a decent house not in the hood right now. Once again, nuts. I haven’t seen houses selling for cash over the appraisal price in the south east since 2007.

Luxury items are hard to find and prices are up there too!

Food is higher, and the only places to get yield on your money is the stonk market and real estate.

ETA: $5 gas in the south east again should cause the meltdown everyone is waiting for. Problem with vehicles is that cash for clunkers took so many used vehicles off the market, that you have to pay through the nutsack for used vehicles too.

 

[DarnYankeeUSMC]

This is from a couple weeks ago. You want to drive inflation up? This will do it. It was an increase of about 60 cents at the time.

 

[E. Bryant]

Every single industry is being affected by this. And every single industry is suffering shortages, either from lack of funds to buy or just lack of materials. I believe we are about to see some very, very dark times indeed.

This here is the problem. Supply chain disruptions are no longer just a direct side effect of Covid-19. What we're seeing now appears to be the result of breaking fragile systems that are not easily fixed.

Now, maybe this turns out to be something that looks like the ramp-up in oil prices in 2007, which many mistook for Peak Oil. But maybe we're also simultaneously hitting the carrying capacity of multiple segments of the economy - not because we've found actual resource limits in terms of labor/material/energy, but rather because we've misallocated so much capital over the past decade and now it's time to pay the price.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Is there any "Safe Haven" to put our spare money into? I'm not seeing the stock market as a safe haven. Cryptocurrency, to me, is not a safe haven. In fact, if I can't be in physical possession, it is not a safe haven. Historically precious metals have been one of the safe havens but we have witnessed uncertain times with metals. With this administrations idea of taxing large corporations, that will be an across the board increase in anything they produce or sell. Having a safe deposit box full of cash is somewhat safe but that will not keep up with inflation.

I too am watching the food commodities. Bill Gates has become the largest owner of "farm land" in America. He is investing heavily into plant based meat alternatives. There seems to be more and more "Government Regulations" on livestock (cattle, hogs, chickens, etc) as well as seeds. Saving a potato from last years garden, letting it go to seed and transporting it to the garden of one of our children is against the law. Only "certified" potatoes can, supposedly, be sold commercially. We are encouraged to go green and raise a garden while at the same time raising a garden can be in violation of Government Regulations.

I'm sure there is many a Native American speaking of the US Government and saying "We told you"....

Open for suggestions / comments.

Hobo

 

[KYAggie]

My last 4Runner oil change the dealer offered me $30,500 for my 2019 4Runner. That’s only $500 less than I paid for it new!

Used Toyota’s are like gold right now, especially with low miles. They last forever thank goodness and are easy to maintain which is why they retain their value so well, especially compared to a “luxury” vehicle like a Volvo. There’s a reason the tertorists run Toyotas until they get blown up.

I agree, $5 gas coupled with the inflation of other critical items should put an end to this nonsense for a while. When the music is going to stop is a guessing game though. I need my truck until this fall, after that, I don’t need it and I’m seriously thinking about selling in this high market.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in March, resulting in the largest annual gain in 9-1/2 years, fitting in with expectations for higher inflation as the economy reopens amid an improved public health environment and massive government funding.

U.S. producer inflation heats up in March as prices increase broadly

U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in March, resulting in the largest annual gain in 9-1/2 years.

www.cnbc.com

 

[kortik]

Is there any "Safe Haven" to put our spare money into?

Open for suggestions / comments.

Hobo

It's a very tough question to answer...

 

[Bigfatcock]

Is there a safe Haven for your money? No. There never has been, which is why DCA and time in the market are important.

Right now the search is for yield. With bonds being shit, bank interest rates being shit, you have to be in equities or real estate to get yield on your money.

The saddest part is savers are getting hosed. If your money is sitting in a bank, you’re losing buying power over time.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

It's a very tough question to answer...

Yes Sir, it is...
I have a couple of neighbors who were picking up old trucks and some farm equipment. They thought they had items of value in the back field. They recently died and the scrap iron haulers have been in there hauling stuff to the scrap yard. Kids are saying once it is cleaned down to the dirt, they are going to sell the place. But again, prices for land are inflated. I have seen land prices run in a cycle, just like everything else.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Corn over the past 12 months. Sobering

 

[E. Bryant]

Corn over the past 12 months. Sobering

There might be more to this price movement than monetary inflation:

If I understand the Twitter rumblings, China is experiencing food shortages... or rather, is ramping up imports in expectations of shortages late this year/early next. I may need to be fact-checked on this. If this is true, watch for skyrocketing pork and chicken prices next.

The average consumer won't care if these increased prices are caused by supply/demand or monetary inflation; they just know that shit is getting more expensive. If this turns into actual wage pressure ( - yeah, I know, that feels unlikely, but with 4% unemployment, maybe something happens?), then perhaps we do see the kick-off of a classic wage/price spiral. Still feels unlikely, given the past two decades.

What does feel likely is that these "completely unpredictable" events are going to become the new normal, because we've had this creeping movement towards centralized planning but without any competency being developed at the governmental level. And frankly, private industry isn't much better; what little competency does exist in supply chain management is almost solely devoted to the cult of just-in-time delivery, because avoiding that little bit of inventory cost is so much more important than ensuring that goods are actually available when needed. It's kinda funny watching the automakers deal with the ramifications of this (it's a reckoning that has been coming for almost 30 years), but it's gonna suck way worse when this turns into shit we need to live. Hang on tightly - it may be a bumpy ride.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

E. Bryant​

I agree..... Watched the video of Fed Chairman Powell over the weekend. He is struggling to "Lie With a Straight Face".... He avoids talking about $$$... He defaults to "The Virus"..... as do many other elected officials. Kind of like talking about the weather. Most forecasters are wrong but that has been accepted by society.

If a man has any extra money... Now is the time to invest it in himself. Learn to blacksmith, weld, frame with alternate materials (other than wood and steel), basic auto maintenance / repair, electrical basics. Look around at what you possess that you can not maintain and alter the situation. Skills will become an inflation fighter in themselves.

Back to the topic of "Inflation"...

I have noticed the cost for the little packages of seeds (Burpee, Ferry-More, Johnny's, Renewable Resources, etc) going up. Also noticing that the quantity of seeds won't plant as long of a row this year as in the past.

 

[chrome]

 

[Bender]

Thanks boomers.
All it takes for evil to prevail is for good men to do nothing.

 

[chrome]

Thanks boomers.
All it takes for evil to prevail is for good men to do nothing.

Fucking. This.

When you do the root cause analysis on this, today's current situation is driven by a bunch of fucking pearl clutching boomers who forced our society to reorganize itself because these old cunts might die at the age of 79 as opposed to 85 because of the asymmetrical COOF-19 IFR rate for older people.

In short, this inflation we see today, is largely driven by the elderly's fear of death and losing their wealth.

We have sacrificed millions of young life years in the name of preserving a fraction of elderly population's years.

 

[D̷e̷v̷i̷l̷D̷o̷c̷A̷Z̷]

Thanks boomers.
All it takes for evil to prevail is for good men to do nothing.

They inherited EVERYTHING and still fucked it up being greedy twats.

Good thing is they won’t live forever despite their best efforts.

History will remover them as “The Greediest Generation”

 

[Hobo Hilton]

With inflation heating up, retailers are being forced to make some tough choices. Closing grocery stores puts a hardship on those customers who do not have an automobile, those who are disabled and the folks on a fixed income. I spent time in Long Beach and know those communities. Not a big deal to those on Ocean Boulevard but 2 or three blocks inland and it's a different world for both grocery store workers as well as customers.
______________________________

Retail chain Kroger closed two California stores Saturday after Long Beach City approved a coronavirus "hero pay" ordinance.


Hero pay ordinances bump pay for workers in retail stores and pharmacies with 300 or more workers due to the hazards of the COVID-19 pandemic. In Long Beach, eligible workers have seen a $4 per hour increase in their wages.

Democratic Mayor Robert Garcia approved the ordinance in January. Other cities in California have taken similar measures, with Los Angeles approving "hero pay" in March at $5 an hour.

Kroger closes 2 Southern California stores over $4 per hour 'hero pay' ordinance

Retail chain Kroger closed two California stores Saturday after Long Beach City approved a coronavirus "hero pay" ordinance.

www.foxbusiness.com

 

[charliehorse27]

With inflation heating up, retailers are being forced to make some tough choices. Closing grocery stores puts a hardship on those customers who do not have an automobile, those who are disabled and the folks on a fixed income. I spent time in Long Beach and know those communities. Not a big deal to those on Ocean Boulevard but 2 or three blocks inland and it's a different world for both grocery store workers as well as customers.
______________________________

Retail chain Kroger closed two California stores Saturday after Long Beach City approved a coronavirus "hero pay" ordinance.


Hero pay ordinances bump pay for workers in retail stores and pharmacies with 300 or more workers due to the hazards of the COVID-19 pandemic. In Long Beach, eligible workers have seen a $4 per hour increase in their wages.

Democratic Mayor Robert Garcia approved the ordinance in January. Other cities in California have taken similar measures, with Los Angeles approving "hero pay" in March at $5 an hour.

Kroger closes 2 Southern California stores over $4 per hour 'hero pay' ordinance

Retail chain Kroger closed two California stores Saturday after Long Beach City approved a coronavirus "hero pay" ordinance.

www.foxbusiness.com

Seems like they aren’t quite thinking through the long term, “unintended” effects of such actions.

 

[Choid]

With inflation heating up, retailers are being forced to make some tough choices. Closing grocery stores puts a hardship on those customers who do not have an automobile, those who are disabled and the folks on a fixed income. I spent time in Long Beach and know those communities. Not a big deal to those on Ocean Boulevard but 2 or three blocks inland and it's a different world for both grocery store workers as well as customers.
______________________________

Retail chain Kroger closed two California stores Saturday after Long Beach City approved a coronavirus "hero pay" ordinance.


Hero pay ordinances bump pay for workers in retail stores and pharmacies with 300 or more workers due to the hazards of the COVID-19 pandemic. In Long Beach, eligible workers have seen a $4 per hour increase in their wages.

Democratic Mayor Robert Garcia approved the ordinance in January. Other cities in California have taken similar measures, with Los Angeles approving "hero pay" in March at $5 an hour.

Kroger closes 2 Southern California stores over $4 per hour 'hero pay' ordinance

Retail chain Kroger closed two California stores Saturday after Long Beach City approved a coronavirus "hero pay" ordinance.

www.foxbusiness.com

This is a really good example of policy based inflation from which a store cannot escape. If it were monetary based inflation, the reaction would likely be significantly different, as the assumption would be that the store would retain pricing power. In fact, not being able to raise prices to keep the store open is an argument against widespread inflation. A lot of the current inflation -- gas, food etc, is as much policy based as anything, which is why you are seeing it in a new administration when increases in the money supply have been rather constant.

 

[vinniedelpino]

2019 the gov raked in about $3.5 trillion. Let that sink in. They just passed 1.9 trillion in stimulus this past year 2x, correct? Which means they are spending way more than they are taking in. Yes? I’m no an economics guy but I don’t see how this can continue. I think we are literally one more stimulus from full collapse.

Not quite, but I still don't see this playing out well. Japan's national debt is 234% of GDP. That's twice our ratio. The purge hasn't started over there yet.

 

[plong]

Seems like they aren’t quite thinking through the long term, “unintended” effects of such actions.

Never do...

 

[Choid]

Not quite, but I still don't see this playing out well. Japan's national debt is 234% of GDP. That's twice our ratio. The purge hasn't started over there yet.

They have very different demographics as well. Much older than we have, but on the other hand, more stable than ours. Certainly Japan has to be another example of why we can't claim to know much on the subject these days.

 

[chrome]

https://www.usdebtclock.org/

 

[E. Bryant]

View attachment 7607064

https://www.usdebtclock.org/

But, no, really, the Dow is at 34k because of organic corporate growth and favorable macroeconomic conditions.

 

[chrome]

I think citizens should be allowed to opt out of paying into social security, given the absolute extreme inability for our government to demonstrate they can save/spend money smartly

I can outperform SS any week of the year with my own investment strategy, and to continue to give the government 9k a year is like continuing to give heroin addicts a speedball every weekend.

 

[Choid]

View attachment 7607082

But, no, really, the Dow is at 34k because of organic corporate growth and favorable macroeconomic conditions.

I'm not sure you will find much correlation between increases in the national debt and increases in the Dow, other than that they are both increasing. Almost inarguably, the majority of inflation we have seen to date is asset inflation, but fiscal policy is such a vanishingly small influence on that that it is not even worth mentioning. Of course, the corollary to that is that fiscal policy, as seen by stimulus multiplier and immediate impact on inflation, is almost a joke when it comes to influencing anything. Nearly everything is done on the monetary policy side. If you are wondering, and you probably aren't, that is why I push back so hard on this thread. Other than preferences as to who gets the money, the difference between now and the Trump years is nil, with Trump himself having been the most pro expansion player in DC, as far as monetary policy. So why is the Hide worried now? Two reasons, one is that there is a real fear of energy prices being driven up, and the other is that they don't like the fiscal policy of the new administration because of its social aims. But only one of those points to any inflation, so where the fuck has this thread been the last four years?

This is, purely, a thread about thinking inflation comes from the guy we don't like in the white house.

 

[E. Bryant]

I think citizens should be allowed to opt out of paying into social security, given the absolute extreme inability for our government to demonstrate they can save/spend money smartly

I can outperform SS any week of the year with my own investment strategy, and to continue to give the government 9k a year is like continuing to give heroin addicts a speedball every weekend.

Bush Jr. proposed that, and it was immediately shot down by both sides. Those in opposition understood reality; SS immediately collapses under the weight of its obligations if it cannot continue soaking current wage earners. There is no "lockbox"; our dollars go straight to current recipients, and hopefully there are still some wage earners in the future to support future recipients. I plan on receiving nothing of value from this program - Millennials and Zoomers aren't going to tolerate spending that much money to support a bunch of us apathetic Gen Xers.

Some wage inflation would actually help in the short- to middle-term. The government could use that to gain larger revenue (in nominal dollars) and play bigger fuck-fuck games with CPI to gradually unwind the commitments to future recipients. Demographics and the lack of wage growth in the last two decades have not been kind.

 

[chrome]

Those in opposition understood reality; SS immediately collapses under the weight of its obligations if it cannot continue soaking current wage earners.

 

[Jgunner]

a 250 ft roll of 10/3 went up 48 bucks overnight, then anouther 30 something th e following day.
theyre killing us

250’ of 12-3 at home depot was like 80~ bucks give or take and is now $235 as of yesterday. 12-2 was $125 iirc.

 

[oneshot86]

250’ of 12-3 at home depot was like 80~ bucks give or take and is now $235 as of yesterday. 12-2 was $125 iirc.

I just bought 1 inch schedule 80 pipe and socket weld 90s and unions. Should have been around 275 ish...
Nope, almost 600

 

[BuildingConceptsllc]

I'm not sure you will find much correlation between increases in the national debt and increases in the Dow, other than that they are both increasing. Almost inarguably, the majority of inflation we have seen to date is asset inflation, but fiscal policy is such a vanishingly small influence on that that it is not even worth mentioning. Of course, the corollary to that is that fiscal policy, as seen by stimulus multiplier and immediate impact on inflation, is almost a joke when it comes to influencing anything. Nearly everything is done on the monetary policy side. If you are wondering, and you probably aren't, that is why I push back so hard on this thread. Other than preferences as to who gets the money, the difference between now and the Trump years is nil, with Trump himself having been the most pro expansion player in DC, as far as monetary policy. So why is the Hide worried now? Two reasons, one is that there is a real fear of energy prices being driven up, and the other is that they don't like the fiscal policy of the new administration because of its social aims. But only one of those points to any inflation, so where the fuck has this thread been the last four years?

This is, purely, a thread about thinking inflation comes from the guy we don't like in the white house.

The biggest difference (though I don't necessarily disagree with the premis) is that Trump didn't have much of any control on what was spent. The situation with Congress (who actually does have control of spending) for Trump is vastly different than biden. You are leaving out this rather large fact, but the energy cost part is absolutely a huge factor.

 

[Blutroop]

Nah, they'll just drop the veneer and show their true colors. And the "good folks" will cheer them on as they do it. Cause "only the groups we don't like will be affected". Already started:
Kentucky state Senate bill 211 just passed in the state senate.

Aren’t officers supposed to be of a moral fiber that would preclude them of resorting to violence because of words directed at them? Then how can that me a legal measuring stick? Or do they actually intend to make a legal back door we’re cops can be triggered to violence by someone’s insults thus not responsible for their excessive force used in “subduing and arresting”

 

[Choid]

The biggest difference (though I don't necessarily disagree with the premis) is that Trump didn't have much of any control on what was spent. The situation with Congress (who actually does have control of spending) for Trump is vastly different than biden. You are leaving out this rather large fact, but the energy cost part is absolutely a huge factor.

My point is that if you set aside spending, which has a small effect on inflation, and look at monetary policy, which has a substantially larger effect on inflation, Trump was the most pro inflation President we have ever seen. He own words were that if you were paying back debt, it was stupid to raise interest rates. That is true, if you are a real estate developer, but it is not necessarily true if you are in charge of a country. He consistently tried to get Powell to lower rates, which is the most powerful inflationary policy in existence.

So what I am saying is two things. One is that Biden's policy preferences suck, and the other is that they are not major drivers of inflation when compared to monetary policy. His policy on energy is very inflationary, but not from a demand side (spending) but from a supply side. And it will be problematic, probably, but it isn't a spending issue. I don't like spending, but from what we can see over the last decades, it isn't much correlated to anything, good or bad.

 

[BuildingConceptsllc]

My point is that if you set aside spending, which has a small effect on inflation, and look at monetary policy, which has a substantially larger effect on inflation, Trump was the most pro inflation President we have ever seen. He own words were that if you were paying back debt, it was stupid to raise interest rates. That is true, if you are a real estate developer, but it is not necessarily true if you are in charge of a country. He consistently tried to get Powell to lower rates, which is the most powerful inflationary policy in existence.

So what I am saying is two things. One is that Biden's policy preferences suck, and the other is that they are not major drivers of inflation when compared to monetary policy. His policy on energy is very inflationary, but not from a demand side (spending) but from a supply side. And it will be problematic, probably, but it isn't a spending issue. I don't like spending, but from what we can see over the last decades, it isn't much correlated to anything, good or bad.

Yes I understand your point, and as I said, I don't necessarily disagree with the premis. My point, was that Congress is who controls spending and they are to blame for most of obvious inflation. Trump definitely liked to spend, but only on things that got us something in return, he was strong armed by his own party into these major spending bills that he absolutely was not in favor of. These other creatures like to spend because it lines their own pockets.
(major difference ). You frame things up as if "biden and trump both are to blame for spending" and that just isn't the whole story.". pubs and dems are both to blame" is accurate . However, it's more akin to driving off a cliff at 10mph vs at 100mph,then of course the absolutely insane policy of the biden bunch makes it all so much worse. Trump spent, but also did some major things that structurally helped our economy, even while being sabotaged by both sides the Entire time. Very few have an issue with criticism of trump, but to frame it up the way you have is disingenuous, and I know that you know that.


And trumps comments on the interest rate were always specifically as it relates to the rest of the world. He was right. If the rest of the world is going to play this game, why should we handicap ourselves??? There's lots more to this, of course but trump got the USA back in action. Fact. Biden is now ruining it and Congress is just pathetic and has been for some time.

 

[Choid]

Yes I understand your point, and as I said, I don't necessarily disagree with the premis. My point, was that Congress is who controls spending and they are to blame for most of obvious inflation. Trump definitely liked to spend, but only on things that got us something in return, he was strong armed by his own party into these major spending bills that he absolutely was not in favor of. These other creatures like to spend because it lines their own pockets.
(major difference ). You frame things up as if "biden and trump both are to blame for spending" and that just isn't the whole story.". pubs and dems are both to blame" is accurate . However, it's more akin to driving off a cliff at 10mph vs at 100mph,then of course the absolutely insane policy of the biden bunch makes it all so much worse. Trump spent, but also did some major things that structurally helped our economy, even while being sabotaged by both sides the Entire time. Very few have an issue with criticism of trump, but to frame it up the way you have is disingenuous, and I know that you know that.


And trumps comments on the interest rate were always specifically as it relates to the rest of the world. He was right. If the rest of the world is going to play this game, why should we handicap ourselves??? There's lots more to this, of course but trump got the USA back in action. Fact. Biden is now ruining it and Congress is just pathetic and has been for some time.

I don't fault Trump much for his spending, for many reasons, but basically I think his fiscal policy was sound, his tax cuts responsible and his priorities in order. I do fault Biden for pushing outrageous spending bills. No doubt. It is easy to say spending is on congress, because the Constitution says so, but in reality, major spending is set in stone, and anything additional comes at the behest of the administration, and generally during their early legislative window. It's not that congress isn't at fault, as much as they have abdicated their duty.

As far as interest rates, Trump may have been right, but rates are the most clear driver of inflation, so if you don't want inflation, lower than Taylor Rule interest rates aren't going to be right. I think Trump did do a lot to increase American competitiveness, but most of that was in the corporate tax cutting arena, renegotiating some bad deals, and in jaw boning companies. I think the rates helped offset the damage of his tariffs, and were necessary, in a way for that, but I think eventually they were as bad as any other tariffs.

But my bottom line point is, again, spending doesn't drive inflation nearly as much as low rates. It is putting the emphasis on the wrong syllable.

Also, I don't think I have framed it unfairly to Trump. I have consistently said that I preferred his spending priorities to Bidens. Overall, for economic policy, I'd give him a B+/A-. I just think, as I said, that fiscal policy has been shown to be pretty inept in driving economic activity. Let me put it in a more traditionally conservative frame. The Obama stimulus package was basically a failure in driving recovery, right? Why? For that reason, that fiscal stimulus (spending) is weak sauce. I personally am anti pretty much all spending, but mainly because I think it creates perverse incentives as far as work, behavior, planning for the future, etc. I just don't think, in the end, it drives inflation as much as monetary policy does.

Again, i don't think I really disagree with anybody here, other than that I think if we get major inflation, it is going to be because of 20 years of loose monetary policy rather than a year of bad fiscal policy. But, as I have said above, even the link between monetary policy and inflation is not as clear as we all thought it was back in school.

 

[BuildingConceptsllc]

I don't fault Trump much for his spending, for many reasons, but basically I think his fiscal policy was sound, his tax cuts responsible and his priorities in order. I do fault Biden for pushing outrageous spending bills. No doubt. It is easy to say spending is on congress, because the Constitution says so, but in reality, major spending is set in stone, and anything additional comes at the behest of the administration, and generally during their early legislative window. It's not that congress isn't at fault, as much as they have abdicated their duty.

As far as interest rates, Trump may have been right, but rates are the most clear driver of inflation, so if you don't want inflation, lower than Taylor Rule interest rates aren't going to be right. I think Trump did do a lot to increase American competitiveness, but most of that was in the corporate tax cutting arena, renegotiating some bad deals, and in jaw boning companies. I think the rates helped offset the damage of his tariffs, and were necessary, in a way for that, but I think eventually they were as bad as any other tariffs.

But my bottom line point is, again, spending doesn't drive inflation nearly as much as low rates. It is putting the emphasis on the wrong syllable.

Also, I don't think I have framed it unfairly to Trump. I have consistently said that I preferred his spending priorities to Bidens. Overall, for economic policy, I'd give him a B+/A-. I just think, as I said, that fiscal policy has been shown to be pretty inept in driving economic activity. Let me put it in a more traditionally conservative frame. The Obama stimulus package was basically a failure in driving recovery, right? Why? For that reason, that fiscal stimulus (spending) is weak sauce. I personally am anti pretty much all spending, but mainly because I think it creates perverse incentives as far as work, behavior, planning for the future, etc. I just don't think, in the end, it drives inflation as much as monetary policy does.

Again, i don't think I really disagree with anybody here, other than that I think if we get major inflation, it is going to be because of 20 years of loose monetary policy rather than a year of bad fiscal policy. But, as I have said above, even the link between monetary policy and inflation is not as clear as we all thought it was back in school.

I'm with you here on pretty much every point. However, the increasing of M1 at the level and rate that has been done in the last year is a massively unusual situation and absolutely is the main driver of the inflation we are seeing right now. So I am agreeing and disagreeing with on that one point, but doing so at the same time. However, loose monetary policy of theist few decades as you said, is also a major factor.

 

[RGStory]

This is, purely, a thread about thinking inflation comes from the guy we don't like in the white house.

You have good well informed points that I appreciate you taking the time to illustrate. I disagree with this one.
I humbly request you refrain from lumping us all into the same boat. I am ill equipped to defend some of the ideas that have been stated here by others.

 

[Powder_Burns]

 

[DarnYankeeUSMC]

They, (the commies and republicans) want inflation. It promotes their $15/hr minimum wage.

 

[Choid]

You have good well informed points that I appreciate you taking the time to illustrate. I disagree with this one.
I humbly request you refrain from lumping us all into the same boat. I am ill equipped to defend some of the ideas that have been stated here by others.

Probably fair.

 

[Bender]

Seems like they aren’t quite thinking through the long term, “unintended” effects of such actions.

Bull

Shit

They know exactly what would happen. Fukin Fudds think they are stupid? They FUCKING STOLE THE COUNTRY!!! You really think they are stupid? We are at fucking war and some on here want to talk how to save their 401k? It’s all gone. You Fudds are the stupid fuckers. We all got played and will pay the toll. I didn’t mean to go off on you personally, but it’s attitudes like this that brought us to this doorstep. And they think it was by accident? Who is the stupid one now??? We are 30years behind on their plan. But hey! That 401k sure looks great!

 

[BuildingConceptsllc]

Yeah, I have to agree, they damn well know exactly what they are doing. They can ride right along with it though, as they stuff their own pockets and that of their families, it's us who will pay the piper, and they know it!

 

[chrome]

View attachment 7607082

But, no, really, the Dow is at 34k because of organic corporate growth and favorable macroeconomic conditions.

Remember when our debt was only single digit trillions?

 

[SilentStalkr]

Bull

Shit

They know exactly what would happen. Fukin Fudds think they are stupid? They FUCKING STOLE THE COUNTRY!!! You really think they are stupid? We are at fucking war and some on here want to talk how to save their 401k? It’s all gone. You Fudds are the stupid fuckers. We all got played and will pay the toll. I didn’t mean to go off on you personally, but it’s attitudes like this that brought us to this doorstep. And they think it was by accident? Who is the stupid one now??? We are 30years behind on their plan. But hey! That 401k sure looks great!

So what’s the plan? How can you realistically combat this when it’s so far gone? As you know most of us here agree with you, but what I fail to see is the end game. Even the commies surely have to know that if America goes the entire world goes. Seriously. We could literally devolve into some tribal 3rd world shithole over night. I really don’t see anyone winning in this scenario. If the ones with the resources aKA the elites and politicians think they come out on top in this scenario then they are sadly very mistaken. The same ones they claimed to help who they think they have bought off will come after them, quite literally.

 

[Bender]

So what’s the plan? How can you realistically combat this when it’s so far gone? As you know most of us here agree with you, but what I fail to see is the end game. Even the commies surely have to know that if America goes the entire world goes. Seriously. We could literally devolve into some tribal 3rd world shithole over night. I really don’t see anyone winning in this scenario. If the ones with the resources aKA the elites and politicians think they come out on top in this scenario then they are sadly very mistaken. The same ones they claimed to help who they think they have bought off will come after them, quite literally.

The Great Reset.

the great reset - Google Search

 

[Bender]

Now is the time for a 'great reset'

The changes we have already seen in response to COVID-19 prove that a reset of our economic model is possible. Professor Klaus Schwab outlines how to achieve it.

www.weforum.org

Look at the “young leaders”

blue line Fudds led to slaughter