Inflation.......... ?

[Gommer]

This is a non-scientific study by one old guy on a fixed income.

Without quoting government statistics or giving specific information. Since the first of 2021, how much more are things costing ?

My example is how much I pay for pelleted chicken feed. My cost is up 3.5% since 1/1/2021.

Hobo

Corporations do pricing in various ways. Annual, semi-annual, quarterly, contract volume, etc.

I have seen a very large retailer accept price increases on high volume products much higher than 3.5% with more planned increases throughout the year.

It’s coming.

 

[E. Bryant]

Corporations do pricing in various ways. Annual, semi-annual, quarterly, contract volume, etc.

I have seen a very large retailer accept price increases on high volume products much higher than 3.5% with more planned increases throughout the year.

It’s coming.

In automotive, it's customary to quote work with annual cost reductions over the first four or so years of a contract (3% per year is typical). I'm gonna guess there will be some vigorous negotiations on this point in the coming months, and the term "force majeure" will be used more frequently than normal.

 

[E. Bryant]

They, (the commies and republicans) want inflation. It promotes their $15/hr minimum wage.

Eh, that may be a bonus, but I don't think it's the main driver. It appears that deflation (which increases the cost of repaying past debt in nominal terms) is so scary to the people in charge that they will tolerate any level of inflation that doesn't send the cost of acquiring future debt through the roof.

Now, because fed.gov is now on the hook for $28 trillion, this is a much trickier line to walk than when Obama took office with "only" $10 trillion in debt to service. But the government both owns a printing press and has the most powerful military in the world, so we're afforded a certain level of freedom to set monetary policy.

 

[DarnYankeeUSMC]

Not even a bonus. It's a cover-up. The majority of the population has no clue as to what has happened to the financial system in the country over the last 12 years. $12/hr is just to keep the stupid, ignorant and uninformed on their blissful path.
It's simple. You can't print 20 trillion dollars in 12 years without paying the band. You can listen to the mumbojumbo garbage that chode cut and paste from some finance articles or open your eyes to what has happened in many other countries that have gone down this path. Do you remember when we had one thousand dollar bills? They stopped printing them because of the cocaine trade back in the 70's - 80's. They will be bringing them back so you can buy bread.
Someone earlier used japan's gdp to debt ratio as an example to say that it's not a big deal. Japan doesn't have 60% of their population collecting a govt check.
Every modern country on earth is working on a digital currency, including the USA. The modern monetary system is facing a paradigm shift.

Eh, that may be a bonus, but I don't think it's the main driver. It appears that deflation (which increases the cost of repaying past debt in nominal terms) is so scary to the people in charge that they will tolerate any level of inflation that doesn't send the cost of acquiring future debt through the roof.

Now, because fed.gov is now on the hook for $28 trillion, this is a much trickier line to walk than when Obama took office with "only" $10 trillion in debt to service. But the government both owns a printing press and has the most powerful military in the world, so we're afforded a certain level of freedom to set monetary policy.

 

[chrome]

Now is the time for a 'great reset'

The changes we have already seen in response to COVID-19 prove that a reset of our economic model is possible. Professor Klaus Schwab outlines how to achieve it.

www.weforum.org

Look at the “young leaders”

blue line Fudds led to slaughter

View attachment 7607477

I'd rather risk the outcome of sticking my dick into a wood chipper than receive advice from this group of click city millennials.

 

[Choid]

Eh, that may be a bonus, but I don't think it's the main driver. It appears that deflation (which increases the cost of repaying past debt in nominal terms) is so scary to the people in charge that they will tolerate any level of inflation that doesn't send the cost of acquiring future debt through the roof.

Now, because fed.gov is now on the hook for $28 trillion, this is a much trickier line to walk than when Obama took office with "only" $10 trillion in debt to service. But the government both owns a printing press and has the most powerful military in the world, so we're afforded a certain level of freedom to set monetary policy.

Mild inflation being preferable to deflation has been standard doctrine since the 30s. This is hardly anything new, and again, by decade, the last ten years have been unbelievably mild, as have the last twenty. Simply repeating that we have had high inflation doesn't make it so. Likewise, though we have seen a small uptick in rates for long term treasury, market players don't seem, at all, to be buying the line of thinking you are selling. It certainly doesn't look like we are forcing it on them at the point of a sword. And frankly, given that it is 1.5% cheaper for us to borrow now than in early 2009, it doesn't look like a trickier line to walk than when Obama took office.

Things could certainly change, but you are talking about them as being what you think they ought to be, when in fact they aren't that way. They might get that way, but that's a different argument.

 

[Bender]

I'd rather risk the outcome of sticking my dick into a wood chipper than receive advice from this group of click city millennials.

You’re not wrong. This is the NWO plan. An assigned number to participate in the official economy is coming. I promise.

 

[Gommer]

You’re not wrong. This is the NWO plan. An assigned number to participate in the official economy is coming. I promise.

No number assignment until you've received your vaccination and demonstrated you are a good citizen of the NWO.

You must also denounce your whiteness.

One of us. One of us.

 

[Bender]

No number assignment until you've received your vaccination and demonstrated you are a good citizen of the NWO.

You must also denounce your whiteness.

One of us. One of us.

Exactly

 

[Bender]

THE BEST plan of action is to live away from big cities and be debt free as much as possible. Have a variety of marketable skills, build a local trustworthy network and be very weary of outsiders, especially if they are overly motivated out of the blue and you know nothing of their history. be the grey man. Smile and wave.

 

[davesa]

if you mean 2% a year as low inflation ( minus food/energy... because that's volatile and we don't want to include that ) - it still 20% in 10 years...40% in 20 so your 100k has 60k of buying power even with "low" inflation. I think the point is that while your 60k house in 2000 is definitely a 100k house now in 2021 I am not sure your 60k job in 2000 is now a 100k job in 2021.

 

[DarnYankeeUSMC]

I find it funny that financial people and bullshitters say that it's not bad when they compare debt to gdp. To start with GDP is basically a fictitious number that can and is manipulated. The reality is that you and everyone else get rated by your debt to income ratio. So the reality check is that USA has a debt to income ratio of about 10 to 1. 31 trillion plus in debt with an income of 3.3 trillion and expenses that are 4.8 trillion per year. Take that to the bank and see if they laugh at you.

 

[Choid]

I find it funny that financial people and bullshitters say that it's not bad when they compare debt to gdp. To start with GDP is basically a fictitious number that can and is manipulated. The reality is that you and everyone else get rated by your debt to income ratio. So the reality check is that USA has a debt to income ratio of about 10 to 1. 31 trillion plus in debt with an income of 3.3 trillion and expenses that are 4.8 trillion per year. Take that to the bank and see if they laugh at you.

I'll do that the next time they give me a money printing press, Milton.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

We have watched real estate prices skyrocket due to bidding wars and cash sales. Food related commodities are heading down the same path. Coming down to how bad the high bidder wants the commodity.

Basic food commodities:
Corn
Wheat

 

[Choid]

We have watched real estate prices skyrocket due to bidding wars and cash sales. Food related commodities are heading down the same path. Coming down to how bad the high bidder wants the commodity.

Basic food commodities:
Corn
Wheat

Riddle me this, what were corn and wheat prices in 1996. Yes, there has been a big recent spike, but a one year chart of commodity prices right now is clown world level argument. Commodity prices tanked a year ago, so y/y comparisons are not very good. And these prices are all lower than they were from 2008-2013. That is not a really great argument for inflation.

Does it mean that it isn't a harbinger of inflation? No, but wheat prices are up 65% over 50 years, and corn prices are up 50% over 50 years.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I'll admit, it could just be a seasonal run up but these are some very high percentage daily increases.​

​

​

Corn Commodity​

6.38+0.13+2.08%

10:15:00 AM
MI Indication

Wheat Commodity​

236.75+4.00+1.72%

10:10:00 AM
MI Indication

 

[Choid]

I'll admit, it could just be a seasonal run up but these are some very high percentage daily increases.​

​

​

Corn Commodity​

6.38+0.13+2.08%

10:15:00 AM
MI Indication

Wheat Commodity​

236.75+4.00+1.72%

10:10:00 AM
MI Indication

It's not seasonal run up. The question is more whether it is inflation or trading noise. Momentum traders are a huge part of the commodities markets.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

a 250 ft roll of 10/3 went up 48 bucks overnight, then anouther 30 something th e following day.
theyre killing us

And here is a glimpse into the future:
Copper is 'the new oil' and could reach $15,000 by 2025 as the world transitions to clean energy, Goldman Sachs says. ... By 2025, the metal could be priced at $15,000 per ton, a rise of 66%. Demand for copper will surge, but the market is facing a supply crunch.Apr 14, 2021

 

[NoDopes]

China controls a very large portion of "rare earth metals". They can cause us a world of hurt if they want to with that alone. There was a massive deposit of it discovered in Afghanistan, early on in our occupation. I have a feeling this is a big reason we stayed there for so long to control that access and supply.

 

[sheepdog697]

Terrible across the board. I’m in the electrical industry, and we are losing quite a bit money on jobs we bid 4 months ago and starting now because of wire prices.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Terrible across the board. I’m in the electrical industry, and we are losing quite a bit money on jobs we bid 4 months ago and starting now because of wire prices.

After I made the above post, I had to run into town to the PO. I travel past a small electrical contractor's place (DJ's Electric). When I went by he had several van trucks with with I call "Romex", on pallets, being unloaded with his forklift and going into his storage warehouse. I'm sure his business is good right now but it looked like he was stocking up while the current price held. A sign of the times.
______________________________________

BULLETIN >>​

Copper closes at its highest price in more than 9 years

 

[Choid]

After I made the above post, I had to run into town to the PO. I travel past a small electrical contractor's place (DJ's Electric). When I went by he had several van trucks with with I call "Romex", on pallets, being unloaded with his forklift and going into his storage warehouse. I'm sure his business is good right now but it looked like he was stocking up while the current price held. A sign of the times.
______________________________________

BULLETIN >>​

Copper closes at its highest price in more than 9 years

So you saw something, and not knowing the reality, overlayed your beliefs onto it and then saw it as a confirmation of your beliefs? Madness.

 

[E. Bryant]

This doesn't look like reversion to the mean.

I had to build my dad a wheelchair ramp last month, and damn near was forced to liquidate some primers to pay the lumber bill.

 

[Bigfatcock]

I’ve actually started making items out of higher end woods from boutique millers. Might as well use walnut from a small Miller when poplar at the big store is damn near the same price.

It helps that I buy it in slabs and do all the milling, but it’s quite funny.

Example: I make a lot of shop jigs for hand tool workers. Stuff like shooting boards, bench hooks, etc. Normally I would use quarter sawn oak from Lowe’s because it’s flat, already dimensioned, and ready to work. Wasn’t worth buying rough sawn for that stuff. Now it’s cheaper to use walnut, beech, ash, etc that’s rough sawn.

Just a small, anecdotal perspective.

 

[Sean the Nailer]

I’ve actually started making items out of higher end woods from boutique millers. Might as well use walnut from a small Miller when poplar at the big store is damn near the same price.

It helps that I buy it in slabs and do all the milling, but it’s quite funny.

Example: I make a lot of shop jigs for hand tool workers. Stuff like shooting boards, bench hooks, etc. Normally I would use quarter sawn oak from Lowe’s because it’s flat, already dimensioned, and ready to work. Wasn’t worth buying rough sawn for that stuff. Now it’s cheaper to use walnut, beech, ash, etc that’s rough sawn.

Just a small, anecdotal perspective.

I hear you. I've seen pallets come out of the Phillipines that were made out of solid Mahogany. I've set aside a few 'good sized' pieces of oak that were salvaged out of shipping braces and cribbing and whatnot. Our "premium stuff" is their "run-of-the-mill" stuff at times.

 

[rafiki76]

This doesn't look like reversion to the mean.View attachment 7611756

I had to build my dad a wheelchair ramp last month, and damn near was forced to liquidate some primers to pay the lumber bill.

This looks more like a Wiener process of simple diffusion rather than an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck which would fluctuate around a mean. Unfortunately prices do not look like they would stabilize anytime soon. But if compared with 2020 data, it could be argued we are at or approaching the maximum and we will see a gradual rollover.

 

[Alpine 338]

So, after reading about unavailability, and high costs, I decided to prepare for my building project where I left off last fall when snow stopped my building.

Let me regress first. Last year, while starting on all my underground utilities, I found PVC pipe and conduit were hard to get, and for some reason, the elbows were never available. I had to special order all my large sweep electric conduit (gray PVC) elbows, and it literally took weeks to get them.

Apperarantlly, even though most of the PVC pipe and conduit we use in the USA, is actually made here or in Canada, most of the base chemicals to make PVC come from China.

So, not to be cut short or delayed again, and try to avoid climbing prices, I decided to be proactive, and start stocking up. I went to Ace Hardware yesterday, since the closest Home Depot is four hours away, and the electrical supply outfits in town are always more expensive.

Cleaned them out on 1-1/4" and 2" conduit, and the last roll of 12/2 Romex. They were completely out of 2-1/2" conduit.

We're still about a month out from the start of building season here, but shortages are already here. Oh, and the PVC conduit has doubled in price since last Summer. Thank God Ace Hardware offers a military discount.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

So, after reading about unavailability, and high costs, I decided to prepare for my building project where I left off last fall when snow stopped my building.

Let me regress first. Last year, while starting on all my underground utilities, I found PVC pipe and conduit were hard to get, and for some reason, the elbows where never available. I had to special order all my large sweep electric conduit (gray PVC) elbows, and it literally took weeks to get them.

Apperarantlly, even though most of the PVC pipe and conduit we use in the USA, is actually made here or in Canada, most of the base chemicals to make PVC come from China.

So, not to be cut short or delayed again, and try to avoid climbing prices, I decided to be proactive, and start stocking up. I went to Ace Hardware yesterday, since the closest Home Depot is four hours away, and the electrical supply outfits in town are always more expensive.

Cleaned them out on 1-1/4" and 2" conduit, and the last roll of 12/2 Romex. They were completely out of 2-1/2" conduit.

We're still about a month out from the start of building season here, but shortages are already here. Oh, and the PVC conduit has doubled in price since last Summer. Thank God Ace Hardware offers a military discount.

View attachment 7611964

What you have there is "Money In The Bank".....
My philosophy, for the next few months is to Simply "maintain" what I already have.

 

[Dunraven]

Talked to a liberal woman 2 days ago. Rising gas prices came up. Her solution: Just stay home. Brilliant, aren't they?!

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Talked to a liberal woman 2 days ago. Rising gas prices came up. Her solution: Just stay home. Brilliant, aren't they?!

As the downfall becomes obvious, many people retreat to "The World of Denial".... We must leave them there.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Wheat and corn, both up over 3% for the day. That is filtering down into the food chain. Albertsons (ACI) is on the decline as shopper's start to stretch their USD's at some other stores.

 

[Fig]

Now is the time for a 'great reset'

The changes we have already seen in response to COVID-19 prove that a reset of our economic model is possible. Professor Klaus Schwab outlines how to achieve it.

www.weforum.org

Look at the “young leaders”

blue line Fudds led to slaughter

View attachment 7607477

No fucking thanks.

 

[Fig]

The inflation index doesn't include food or fuel...because nobody uses those...

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The inflation index doesn't include food or fuel...because nobody uses those...

I think that must be an "American Trend".....
Historically:
Genesis 41:48 Joseph collected all the food produced in those seven years of abundance in Egypt and stored it in the cities. In each city he put the food grown in the fields surrounding it. Grain has been found in Egyptian pyramids, that had been there for 3,000 years, it was planted, it germinated, sprouted and grew.

 

[Choid]

The inflation index doesn't include food or fuel...because nobody uses those...

Yes it does you unmitigated fool. They are major components.

 

[Bigfatcock]

Even the prices of hookers are up.

 

[Jgunner]

Even the prices of hookers are up.

You mean it cost more to wine/dine them? Cause they are all hookers....

 

[Doc68]

Went to lowes to by 10 2×4s and 6 sheets of plywood.

Spent 450 bucks.....fucking rediculous.

With Military discount.....

Doc

 

[Alpine 338]

Yeah, late last Summer when the prices went up, and we starting to see limited 2x4's in stock, I had to go through a whole bunk just to get 10-each 2x4's that were usable. Most everything else was twisted, warped, checked, and/or one edge was bark. Worst quality I've seen in years, and that was for Grade 2 and better.

I bought a full bunk of select grade 2x4s, and most of it was really grade 2, and a few had to be culled to be later cut and used as shorter pieces. At least that bunk I only paid $3 per, as later in the Summer it went up two to three times the cost for worse grade wood.

 

[Bigfatcock]

Funny part is timber prices haven’t followed milled lumber prices.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Funny part is timber prices haven’t followed milled lumber prices.

There are some other commodities that are reacting the same way. May have something to do with the export markets.

 

[Alpine 338]

Was speaking with a lumber industry guy last year. He said more lumber/wood is exported to Japan than you'd ever expect, and the Japan market demands high quality lumber. So in a crunch, we are stuck with the left overs.

 

[plong]

Funny part is timber prices haven’t followed milled lumber prices.

Yeah... it’s just another “because we can...” capitalism, doncha know...

 

[D̷e̷v̷i̷l̷D̷o̷c̷A̷Z̷]

Does inflation mean I don’t need to look at KBB when selling a car?

 

[Bigfatcock]

Does inflation mean I don’t need to look at KBB when selling a car?

Good luck buying a replacement. Selling vehicles and houses right now is pretty dumb unless you plan on replacing it with a pinto and living in the hood.

 

[Alpine 338]

There are some used autos/trucks priced and selling for almost as much as a new 2021 model. An example. I've been looking for a Toyota Tacoma Truck for about a year or so now, and I'm seeing four or five year old models with mileage between 50-70K selling for as much as $33-36K. You can buy a new one for $35-36K, and that's matching feature for feature. Yes I know, there a cult following with Tacos, but it makes no sense to me.

Makes more sense to me to buy a new one with zero miles for an extra $2K.

 

[Powder_Burns]

There are some used autos/trucks priced and selling for almost as much as a new 2021 model. An example. I've been looking for a Toyota Tacoma Truck for about a year or so now, and I'm seeing four or five year old models with mileage between 50-70K selling for as much as $33-36K. You can buy a new one for $35-36K, and that's matching feature for feature. Yes I know, there a cult following with Tacos, but it makes no sense to me.

Makes more sense to by a new one with zero miles for an extra $2K to me

I was in the market for a used manual 4x4 taco about 7 years ago, they were more $ than a new tundra. Ended up buying a pre-leased tundra for dirt cheap in comparison.

 

[sheepdog697]

So you saw something, and not knowing the reality, overlayed your beliefs onto it and then saw it as a confirmation of your beliefs? Madness.

Contractors are buying it in bulk now to keep up with demand in my area. If they don’t buy it now, it can take up to several months for the orders. He’s not wrong. We order components before submittals get approved or we will be fu**ed. More fu**ed than If we order the material and the submittal gets denied.

 

[Choid]

Contractors are buying it in bulk now to keep up with demand in my area. If they don’t buy it now, it can take up to several months for the orders. He’s not wrong. We order components before submittals get approved or we will be fu**ed. More fu**ed than If we order the material and the submittal gets denied.

Buying in bulk in anticipation of demand is different from buying to warehouse because of the assumption of higher prices. I don't doubt that you are buying because you think demand will be high, and that will push prices up if it ends up being that way. But that is the opposite cycle of information from what he is saying. What you are saying makes perfect sense, what he is saying does not.

 

[DarnYankeeUSMC]

Do you ever choke on your own dick?

Buying in bulk in anticipation of demand is different from buying to warehouse because of the assumption of higher prices. I don't doubt that you are buying because you think demand will be high, and that will push prices up if it ends up being that way. But that is the opposite cycle of information from what he is saying. What you are saying makes perfect sense, what he is saying does not.