That's fair, and. I understand what you are saying, but comparing the last 20 years to this last year period is not correct. M1 has gone from about 4trillion to over 18 trillion, in ONE YEAR! The only thing that's comparable to is Zimbabwe
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Inflation.......... ?
- Thread starter Hobo Hilton
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That's fair, and. I understand what you are saying, but comparing the last 20 years to this last year period is not correct. M1 has gone from about 4trillion to over 18 trillion, in ONE YEAR! The only thing that's comparable to is Zimbabwe
To be fair, this whole debate started this morning be my pointing out just that.
I agree with you... This is a scary thought for many American's.... We are witnessing "Atlas Shrugged"....
That is conflation my friend... you would have us believe that low interest rates are mostly responsible for this, and I would say the printing press or other actions taken (initiated by government mind You) that produce the same effect are what's mainly responsible, though easy money is always inflationary of course. We are on the verge of semantics here really, since the line between bogus fed and bogus govt has become so blurry and intertwined.
What do you consider using the "printing press" if not for loose monetary policy and other extreme Federal Reserve actions? That is pretty much the colloquial definition. It doesn't generally include fiscal policy. And yes, I am saying that fiscal policy has not proven to be very inflationary, even when it is used to reflate the economy. That's not to say it cannot be, but it is weak sauce compared to changing interest rates and other backstopping policies.
Exactly. Basically, we have thought for a long time, or at least most people have to some degree, that in a recession we have monetary (fed) and fiscal (congress) tools. Through guys like Milton Friedman and then John Taylor, we kind of started to understand that Keynesian fiscal policy was BS, but we didn't KNOW it was BS until we tried it one last time in '09*. OK, we knew it was BS, but we tried it anyway. And it was really impotent. That left one lever of policy -- monetary. But without any extra ammo there, I don't know how we deal with crisis.
*the impotence of the '09 stimulus should be instructive to everybody. Not just for analysing future stimulus policy, but also for understanding that fiscal policy has less influence in most environments than we thought.
I'm saying that just because the Fed technically releases money, the govt is who has really done it "this time" . I'm also saying that there is no longer such a thing as "fiscal vs fed" spending. They have merged. Literally and figuratively.
I picked up some flooring last week at the warehouse of one of the largest flooring suppliers in my area. The guy's there said the warehouse was busing at the seams with inventory... Contractors are ordering, paying for it and letting it sit in a local ware house until it's needed... That is one way to make sure material is there when it is needed. Some warehouses are now charging storage. All of this adds to the cost of houses and commercial buildings.
I'm sorry, but that just isn't the way it works. Like somebody above with an llc said, this is literally my business, and it doesn't work that way.
Yeah that was me. It did work that way "this time" and I suspect it will work that way in the future too. All kinds of foolishness is being played.
Sometimes the fed is going to have similar goals as the "government" and sometimes it is not. During a crisis, it is more likely they will be in concert, but that is different from what you are saying. I don't think anybody thinks the fed should have been tight during the last year, because they should not have. But in the year before that, Trump was constantly jawboning them to be way looser than situations dictated, and Trumps supporters were accusing Powell of trying to sabotage Trump's election. Looking back on it, thank God he had some room to move.
New home builders in Texas are seeing lumber packages go up 50 percent or more. They are letting buyers under contract walk away if they cant swing the surcharge
In my line of work, we see cost of electronics going up ten to twenty percent and delays of months on stuff we used to get in days.
On the plus side, some of our vendors just signed five year fixed deals for basic utility services so they could ensure cash flow for some of their fixed assets.
In my line of work, we see cost of electronics going up ten to twenty percent and delays of months on stuff we used to get in days.
On the plus side, some of our vendors just signed five year fixed deals for basic utility services so they could ensure cash flow for some of their fixed assets.
Yep, the 5 year fixed deals could be the double edged sword.... But, it does add some stability to financial projections for a few more years. Interesting concept.
Well I'm not going to continue this, but I'd encourage you to go seek out info of what actually happened instead of relying on what used to be the case and applying it here. I know you understand information, so go look (including Steve M's actions with the Fed) then we can pick this up once you've found some information. This isn't meant to be an insult at all btw. With respect.
It's everywhere, and it's gone up way more than that in a years time. I'm shipping one house's package to a barn to prevent it happening further so we can store it until we are ready to frame. Absolutely crazy times but half of it is simply certain folks sticking it to us, and the other half is inflation + supply chain.
People on this site sure spend a lot of time telling me to learn about what "really" happened, instead of what I think happened. It's amazing I have gotten through to this point.
Why? I mean that seriously? Why would I preference the "alternative information" I find in the politics section of a gun message board over information sources I've cultivated over decades working in the field, on top of years of academic work. If something seems worth investigating here, I do. I mean, I wouldn't call my lawyer and ask for load data or info on shoulder bumping. I feel the same way about info here that I do about the papers. Don't trust, but verify if interesting...
Food inflation is world wide.
www.aljazeera.com
Lebanese forced to cut back on Ramadan Iftar meal as prices soar
Prices have increased dramatically by as much as 300 percent for some basic food items over the past year.
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I feel as though this is being done with everything. The wife and I have done the same on several products. People and companies are just loading up. It like the TP scarce has made us all nuts!
We are even doing it with projects at work....the backlog is crazy. Get in line!
The demand is so high to get shit done we can charge double what we did two years ago.
News reporting this morning nation wide chlorine shortages. No Summer pool parties, unless you like swimming in the green slime.
Lots of municipality water treatment plants, large resorts, large hotels, etc. all use large quantities of chlorine based chemicals.
Expect your city water bill to go up.
Lots of municipality water treatment plants, large resorts, large hotels, etc. all use large quantities of chlorine based chemicals.
Expect your city water bill to go up.
I am considering buying a little bit of silver every paycheck. Maybe a small bag of 90% coins or a handful of ounces of bullion. Does anyone have a recommendation on who has the best prices?
I too would like to stock up on some 90% coins, but haven't had time to do much research.
For years, I've been throwing all the copper pennies that end up in my pocket in a jar. Have a few pounds of those so far. With the projected price of copper, a copper penny may be worth 5¢ here shortly.
For years, I've been throwing all the copper pennies that end up in my pocket in a jar. Have a few pounds of those so far. With the projected price of copper, a copper penny may be worth 5¢ here shortly.
I might suggest at this point, you might be better served, if trying to protect against inflation, by making sure you have all your durable goods and household appliances, house and vehicle stuff in order. Updated and such so that you could survive not being able to afford replacement stuff for a very long time.
Any hobby stuff you want and shooting stuff, if you can find it at great prices, add to your collection.
All that stuff is probably going to inflate in price faster than the precious metals will.
Silver and gold currently are near pretty high peaks and nearly historic spreads between paper and physical. I think there is a good chance for a bit of a correction in those prices over the next year or two and that would be a good time to get some.
Thanks. The reason I asked the question is that I have already taken care of the things you mentioned. I could run what I currently have for the next 20 to 40 years.
Biden has also had historical high levels of spending and the national debt will likely keep the Fed from making any serious adjustments to interest rates. Stagflation.. and I still think gold will be a way to protect against the massive devaluation that is already in progress.
Tools, tools and more tools.
I've never regretted a tool purchase. An old southbend lathe and bridgeport mill would be nice.
I've never regretted a tool purchase. An old southbend lathe and bridgeport mill would be nice.
Just curious, if someone had space and could store a lumber house package, could you make a buck or two on the storage? Is it a commercial deal or a friend helping another out?
On a different note, if you decide lumber is too high and you are just going to get a mill and saw your own, Cooks Sawmill is 62 weeks out for a delivered mill. Glad I have a local sawyer with a fair price.
You are spot on for the home use. Home lumber has to be dried and stamped. I'm referring to the farmer that needs a barn or someone with land and standing timber that's sawing for the neighbors that are building sheds and chicken coops.
I have a bout 10 acres of 25 year pines I need to thin. I was going to buy a mill and keep on the farm and go get a couple of trees a day and saw and sell.
I am thinking about loading the big trailer with a bunch of sawed pine that I really don't need and heading to the farmers market to see if I can sell it. I will park between the turnip guy and the goat soap lady.
You definitely could if you'd done it months ago. It's so high now that it's assumed to be the top basically.
Yeah, but we thought that three months ago too...
! I cringe every Friday afternoon when the week’s Random Lengths report lands in my inbox... $1.40 / BF... oh my... would never have believed we’d see $0.90... Ugh!
Yeah, but we thought that three months ago too...
Yeah some did think that then, but it's already slowing down a lot because of prices so I don't think it will go up anymore to an extent you'd make money on storing it.
Good idea..... Ignore what ever the "spot price" is going for. If you can find "junk silver" locally just suck it up and pay what ever they are asking..... #1 priority is to get it in your hand. With that said, you have world wide competition for silver as we speak. Supply and demand situation. Ignore the bench marks from the past... We are in uncharted waters for "metals"....
When the premiums to actually get the silver in hand are this size, with a spot price that's very middle of the road, you know somethings up...
a few years ago when paper silver was close to the $11 or so mark, physical pretty much was stuck at about $20 to $25 minimum.
Yeah they play their games with paper, but countries around the world are. Circling their asset wagons... they can manipulate and hold it down, but they can't hold it down completely, and when a few countries start pulling in the opposite direction things will get interesting.
All I know is a year or so ago I found myself without a job after some layoffs at a company I had been at for a long time. Luckily I was picked up by another in a matter of weeks. Of course, when the salary thing came up I was a bit worried cause I needed the work and I actually low balled myself. Lucky for me they came back with a reasonable offer that was a wee bit more than I was expecting. However, this was on the premise that I would be working from home.
Before then wages had been pretty stagnant and still are for the most part. I was ok with my salary while working from home or a few days a week from home but I live an hour away each way from my office. With now having to go in everyday and gas going up and the price of goods going up and so on, you can see my issue with my current salary. All was well when gas was reasonable, cars were somewhat reasonable and plentiful, bacon wasn’t $12 a pack and so on, but now we are getting into a situation where it’s just not going to work at my current pay rate.
See everyone can adjust their pricing and so forth except the guy at the end of the line, aKA the workers/consumers. We are just left with figuring it out which generally means we either have to watch spending which ain’t going to help the economy, or we have to work more jobs which ain’t going to help the family unit, not that you can find much extra right now anyways with the supply chains being fucked up and so on. So what is going to happen? I don’t see any good way out of our situation. People are going to get where they just can’t make things work and the entire economy is going to crash at some point as a result.
Everyone can raise their prices except the common man just earning a living. I mean if you in biz for yourself you can raise your pricing, but if you work for someone else even if they raise their pricing that rarely trickles down to the employee. Gov don’t care cause they will just raise taxes, farmers raise their price to meet their needs and then the grocery store raises theirs to offset and so on. You get the deal, but what does the regular consumer do when he doesn’t get any wage increase? There are only so many possibilities and none of them are good.
Before then wages had been pretty stagnant and still are for the most part. I was ok with my salary while working from home or a few days a week from home but I live an hour away each way from my office. With now having to go in everyday and gas going up and the price of goods going up and so on, you can see my issue with my current salary. All was well when gas was reasonable, cars were somewhat reasonable and plentiful, bacon wasn’t $12 a pack and so on, but now we are getting into a situation where it’s just not going to work at my current pay rate.
See everyone can adjust their pricing and so forth except the guy at the end of the line, aKA the workers/consumers. We are just left with figuring it out which generally means we either have to watch spending which ain’t going to help the economy, or we have to work more jobs which ain’t going to help the family unit, not that you can find much extra right now anyways with the supply chains being fucked up and so on. So what is going to happen? I don’t see any good way out of our situation. People are going to get where they just can’t make things work and the entire economy is going to crash at some point as a result.
Everyone can raise their prices except the common man just earning a living. I mean if you in biz for yourself you can raise your pricing, but if you work for someone else even if they raise their pricing that rarely trickles down to the employee. Gov don’t care cause they will just raise taxes, farmers raise their price to meet their needs and then the grocery store raises theirs to offset and so on. You get the deal, but what does the regular consumer do when he doesn’t get any wage increase? There are only so many possibilities and none of them are good.
We are all in this boat together, in one form or another......... Kind of like being on that airplane and the pilot gets on the PA and broadcast to the stewards / stewardesses..... Stow all gear, take a seat and brace for a hard landing...... Well shit..... The reality is "it is coming".... Any body's guess as to when or hard of a landing, say a prayer, get ready, hang on.
News reported this morning that new car sales are now selling higher than sticker price. Shortages everywhere.
I'm locked in on a price, $200 lower than sticker on a new truck that's scheduled to be built on the 2nd of June.
So far, the chip shortage hasn't slowed down Toyota Tacoma production, but the dealer said 4-Runners are impacted, along with another line, which I can't remember now?
I'm locked in on a price, $200 lower than sticker on a new truck that's scheduled to be built on the 2nd of June.
So far, the chip shortage hasn't slowed down Toyota Tacoma production, but the dealer said 4-Runners are impacted, along with another line, which I can't remember now?
Copper (commodity) has moved above $5.00 / lb
Copper LIVE QUOTE
| 10,025.50 USD Last | 34.00 +/- | 0.34% % |
|---|---|---|
| Trade Time Official Close 5/6/2021 | Previous Close 9,991.50 |
The average monthly costs of groceries in March increased 3.3% from March 2020, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In every month since April 2020, the price increase has roughly ranged between 3% and 5% from the same point one year earlier.There might be more to this price movement than monetary inflation:
View attachment 7602686
If I understand the Twitter rumblings, China is experiencing food shortages... or rather, is ramping up imports in expectations of shortages late this year/early next. I may need to be fact-checked on this. If this is true, watch for skyrocketing pork and chicken prices next.
The average consumer won't care if these increased prices are caused by supply/demand or monetary inflation; they just know that shit is getting more expensive. If this turns into actual wage pressure (- yeah, I know, that feels unlikely, but with 4% unemployment, maybe something happens?), then perhaps we do see the kick-off of a classic wage/price spiral. Still feels unlikely, given the past two decades.
What does feel likely is that these "completely unpredictable" events are going to become the new normal, because we've had this creeping movement towards centralized planning but without any competency being developed at the governmental level. And frankly, private industry isn't much better; what little competency does exist in supply chain management is almost solely devoted to the cult of just-in-time delivery, because avoiding that little bit of inventory cost is so much more important than ensuring that goods are actually available when needed. It's kinda funny watching the automakers deal with the ramifications of this (it's a reckoning that has been coming for almost 30 years), but it's gonna suck way worse when this turns into shit we need to live. Hang on tightly - it may be a bumpy ride.
Why are grocery prices going up? New inflation data rekindles burning question
The monthly inflation index on food prices increased 0.4% in May
www.marketwatch.com
I've seen a greater increase in grocery prices in my local. Pre-covid, my weekly grocery bill was just under $100, but now it's around $140+
Same here, a big increase for me over the past year.
Since I pretty much rigidly buy the same stuff each week, it's easy to see.
That and many options of what I used to buy are no longer in stock and have been replaced with more expensive and junkier options.
Good planning on the part of Toyota.
_______________________
The shortage prompted top U.S. automaker General Motor Co to extend production cuts at three North American plants last week, while Honda Motor and Nissan Motor were set to sell a combined 250,000 fewer cars in the current financial year.
Meanwhile, Toyota shrugged off the issue in its quarterly report last week and said it has up to a four-month stockpile of chips, with no immediate hit to production expected.
“We believe the shortage should ease or even be resolved in the second half of 2021 as suppliers boost production for automotive clients,” Fitch said.
Japan's Toyota, Honda can likely cope with global chip shortage: Fitch
The global semiconductor chip shortage is not likely to significantly affect the financial profiles of Japan's Toyota Motor Corp or Honda Motor Co, ratings agency Fitch said in a statement on Wednesday.
www.reuters.com
It's more than just that, it is that people then have to use the money for consumption rather than to build back personal balance sheets, etc. But you are right, and you hit at the crux of the issue. Fiscal policy only works if people are unaware it is happening, because as a surprise, it doesn't create perverse incentives. If people know what is happening, they react based on their future assumptions given the change in policy. To wit, they might tighten their belt and save because they fear that stimulus will be followed by tax increases. Banks are not immune to this, especially after having just fucked up royally, and in the 2009 case, being told that they were going to be evaluated for solvency every so often by the government's own black box metrics. So yes, you are correct. Arguably, there is a function that will describe the increase in information speed and how it has a negative effect on purposeful government actions as opposed to when only some people could read, and they had to read a newspaper.
Holy Shit!?!?!? You see markdowns and your analysis is that it is because of inflation? Markdowns are literally deflation before your very eyes. I guess to a man with a hammer and all. You realize that pricing power is a prerequisite of consumer inflation, and that markdowns are evidence of lack of pricing power, which is much more in keeping with what you would expect given today's awful employment report.
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