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Not looking good

Dead Eye Dick

Command Spec 4 (formally known as Wiillk)
Full Member
Minuteman
Supporter
May 18, 2020
4,146
13,170
North Louisiana
Cat 2 before she hits the coast. Getting everything ready.

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Don't they usually push right across to the pacific when they hit that low? Be nice if it hooked up and pushed some moister to CO. We are dryer than a popcorn fart.
This was not your normal storm. Most, develop as lows in the African Sahara, travel with the trade winds in equatorial Atlantic and then enter the Caribbean IF, a pressure system does not turn them north. Then they can enter the Gulf after crossing florida or go up the east coast or die in the middle of the Atlantic.

Those storms that enter the Caribbean do as you say, push across Mexico or Central America or they turn north and enter the Gulf where if Shear or a previous hurricane has not stolen the heat, become REAL Powerhosues. (Read Camille, second strongest storm to ever hit mainland US)

However, Francine is much like Audrey. Actually Francine started as a low pressure system just off the Texas Louisiana coast. Hung around for a few days and got us all really wet. Then, the low pressure moved south, staying over the water. As systems often do, over warm water, with a lack of shear, they get organized and do some hurt.

Audrey of 1957 basically developed out of nothing in the Gulf, early in the season. She developed into a Cat 4 storm, and “stormed ashore much sooner than expected, basically destroying Cameron Parish with multiple loss of life.

Francine is now expected to come ashore as a cat 2, and with the abilities of modern forecasting, the only real loss of life will be by people who do not heed warnings.


Camille. Before Camille, it was always thought that small hurricanes were weak hurricanes. A few hours before she was to make landfall, a hurricane hunter penetrated her eye. What they found was frightening. Her pressure was in the 800 millibar range and winds of 200mph were found. They radioed back that information and an emergency evacuation saved thousands. Everyone thinks Katrina was bad and it did have a large storm surge, but Camille, she was a heart breaker.

Sorry for the hurricane primer. At 7 years of age, Audrey scared the shit out of me and I have studied the things ever since.
 
Canyon Lake, and Edwards aquifer too…
One computer model has it going up Texas along what appears to be the College Station / Tyler line. (Approximately). Still too far east to do much for the hill country. Thanks to a rare summer cold front and the beginning of Francine last week, we have more water in Caney Creek Lake in the month of September than I can ever remember in my30+ years of living here. (Grass is green as grass too, that’s VERY unusual for September)
 
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I live in Florida and do absolutely nothing for a cat one…. The media is hysterical as usual.

Of course if you live in a low area you will have to worry about flooding.
Agreed. Plus I’m 47 miles from the coast. The grocery stores are slammed. Places are out of fuel. We’re working tomorrow and Thursday lol
 
Sally wasn’t much of a hurricane. So little that I gave no thought to our 26 foot boat, on her trailer which both boat and trailer were securely anchored at her parking space. Totally wrecked her. Like you say, cat one isn’t much till it puts a pine tree though the middle of your house. Or floods your home.

We are two hundred miles from the coast but the area received major damage from both Rita and Laura, who were both still cat 1 storms when they came though. Which leads me to think, if North Dakota is nice this time of year. (My worry, our son is on the coast in NW Florida and my aged sister lives on the West Bank across from New Orleans.) Our son bogies out when storms approach, my sister is a “Won’t Budger” Talked to her this morning, she isn’t leaving.

Guess Brenda and I will have a hurricane party tomorrow which from the track, might mean a good day to go shooting.
 
Hope everyone stays safe.

With that said you know climate fear porn is working when cat 2 gets everyone worked up...

Its like "feels like" temperatures and the changes to the temperature gradiant they use on the news.

Shit,...now high 80's is bright ass kill you red with 90's some sort of nuclear-glow magenta/red shit...
 
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I live in Florida and do absolutely nothing for a cat one…. The media is hysterical as usual.

Of course if you live in a low area you will have to worry about flooding.


Category 1 is equivalent of a strong Northeast winter storm which can easily produce sustained 74+mph wind in NYC along with 3" of snow an hour, and 86+mph on coastal Rhode Island with a lot of beach erosion and storm surge. Cat 1 strength winter storms are actually far more dangerous than the hurricane counterpart due to wind chill factor. At 26-30°F ambient, 74mph winds will equal -12°F, like a restaurant kitchen's blast chiller unit. People leaving snow-stalled cars during these storms and trying to walk somewhere have been found frozen to death afterward. Very dangerous even with layers on.

With a hurricane of any strength, flooding is the major killer. Rain plus storm surge can turn any low lying area into a temporary sea for days. Sandy was less than a Cat 1 when it hit NYC and NJ but brought about 16 feet of seawater to every coastal and riverfront neighborhood in the Big Apple. The flood absolutely wrecked the N/R local subway line from DeKalb Ave in Brooklyn to City Hall in Manhattan. The entire section of that line was completely submerged.
 
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Yeah, I watched the live feed from Lumcon in Cocodrie. Wasn’t pretty. Had about 4-5’ of surge when the live feed stopped working. Reaching out to my buddies down the bayou