Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024

[Hobo Hilton]

MSN

That is a timely article.
Jerome Powell has said he will push America into a recession in an effort to lower inflation. The old guy's here have been through that a time or two. We knew it was coming, just as America knows today. We tightened our purse strings, did not try to keep up with the Jones's, continued to work at that crappy job with no appreciation, drove some 20 year old cars, clipped grocery store coupons and survived being a one income family. We learned a lot. There were very few $1,200 mobile phones in use at $3 / minute. When it was all over, we picked ourselves up, dusted the dust off and continued with life. I don't remember any Death Certificates that listed COD as Recession. In all fairness, this recession will last longer than the previous 3 or 4...

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Getting more and more difficult to ignore the wolf at the door.
A U.S. recession is “quite likely” next year as persistent inflationary pressures force the Federal Reserve to shift interest rates higher than expected, former Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren said Tuesday.

U.S. likely headed for mild recession in 2023, former Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren says

A U.S. recession is "quite likely" next year as persistent inflationary pressures move the Federal Reserve to shift interest rates higher, Eric Rosengren said Tuesday.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Protocol reported earlier on the cuts, saying that they could affect up to 2,500 employees. One person familiar with the matter said Salesforce let go of fewer than 1,000 people on Monday. At the end of January it employed 73,541 people. In August Salesforce said in a filing that headcount rose 36% in the past year “to meet the higher demand for services from our customers.”

Salesforce cut hundreds of employees on Monday

Deal cycles have been lengthening as top executives weigh in to be more careful about spending, Salesforce co-CEO Marc Benioff said in August.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Looking like the "Make Believe World" is getting ready to meet the "Real World" for many.

Meta laying off more than 11,000 employees: Read Zuckerberg's letter announcing the cuts

Meta is laying off 13% of its staff, or more than 11,000 employees, CEO Mark Zuckerberg told employees on Wednesday.

www.cnbc.com

Bank of England Chief Economist Suggests Pandemic QE a Mistake

Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill suggested that officials made a mistake in continuing their stimulus program through the pandemic, saying the money-printing has contributed to rocketing inflation.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Won't be hearing "Going to Disneyland" as much.

Disney stock's worst day in 2 1/2 years cuts nearly 80 points off the Dow's price

Shares of Walt Disney Co. undefined tumbled 11.8% in morning trading, putting them on track to suffer their worst day in 2 1/2 years, after the media and...

www.marketwatch.com

 

[babyguppy]

Won't be hearing "Going to Disneyland" as much.

Disney stock's worst day in 2 1/2 years cuts nearly 80 points off the Dow's price

Shares of Walt Disney Co. undefined tumbled 11.8% in morning trading, putting them on track to suffer their worst day in 2 1/2 years, after the media and...

www.marketwatch.com

from what I hear.......
parents can't afford groomer land and the smart ones don't want to support a groomer corporation.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

from what I hear.......
parents can't afford groomer land and the smart ones don't want to support a groomer corporation.

You got to give it to Disney.... They were ahead of the pack with those little Mouseketeers.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I guess I should not describe myself as "one of the Poor's". I'll call myself a "cash strapped shopper".

CEO Ethan Brown called the results “disappointing” in the press release. Cash-strapped shoppers are skipping Beyond’s burger, sausage and chicken substitutes and instead buying cheaper proteins, according to Brown.

Beyond Meat reports wider-than-expected loss, falling revenue

Beyond Meat reported a wider-than-expected loss as demand for its meat substitutes tumbled.

www.cnbc.com

 

[lariat]

I guess I should not describe myself as "one of the Poor's". I'll call myself a "cash strapped shopper".

CEO Ethan Brown called the results “disappointing” in the press release. Cash-strapped shoppers are skipping Beyond’s burger, sausage and chicken substitutes and instead buying cheaper proteins, according to Brown.

Beyond Meat reports wider-than-expected loss, falling revenue

Beyond Meat reported a wider-than-expected loss as demand for its meat substitutes tumbled.

www.cnbc.com

Yeah, no shit. Maybe if you added those super tasty bugs. Nope.

 

[E. Bryant]

By shedding half its value in the past 12 months, I believe that Amazon is the first ever company to lose a full $1 trillion off its market cap. And even after all that, it still carries a PE ratio of 89.

Oops, looks like I was a few days early and a few billion short with this proclamation last week.

Amazon Becomes World’s First Public Company to Lose $1 Trillion in Market Value

Amazon.com Inc. is the world’s first public company to lose a trillion dollars in market value as a combination of rising inflation, tightening monetary policies and disappointing earnings updates triggered a historic selloff in the stock this year.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[babyguppy]

Oops, looks like I was a few days early and a few billion short with this proclamation last week.

Amazon Becomes World’s First Public Company to Lose $1 Trillion in Market Value

Amazon.com Inc. is the world’s first public company to lose a trillion dollars in market value as a combination of rising inflation, tightening monetary policies and disappointing earnings updates triggered a historic selloff in the stock this year.

www.bloomberg.com

100 billion + or - is close enough for government work

 

[Hobo Hilton]

“We have got to get inflation behind us,” Powell said. “I wish there were a painless way to do that. There isn't.” Powell's remarks followed another substantial three-quarters of a point rate hike — its third straight — by the Fed's policymaking committee. Sep 22, 2022
_______________________________________________________________

The president of the Cleveland Federal Reserve welcomed “some easing” in U.S. inflation, but she also said the central bank needs to keep raising interest rates until price pressures dissipate more rapidly.
“Given that inflation has consistently proven to be more persistent than expected and there are significant costs of continued high inflation, I currently view the larger risks as coming from tightening too little,” said Loretta Mester in a speech at Princeton University.
Mester did not indicate whether she would back a smaller increase in interest rates when senior Fed officials hold their next big meeting in December.

Mester says Fed needs to keep interest rates higher for longer to cool inflation

The chief of the Cleveland Federal Reserve welcomed "some easing" in U.S. inflation, but she also said the central bank needs to keep raising interest rates...

www.marketwatch.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

America is following the UK down this rabbit hole.

House repossessions rise 15% in three months amid high mortgage rates

Increased borrowing costs coupled with higher energy bills and general inflation could lead to more forced home sales, experts say.

www.thisismoney.co.uk

 

[Alpine 338]

I'm constantly looking at Zillow, Realtor.com, etc. Mostly out of curiosity, but also looking for another small place in Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, or Idaho. I'm see more and more properties listed as "Auction" which equates to foreclosure. It's coming, just a matter of how quickly or slowly it will happen.

 

[Oldloser]

How is this for an indicator?

https://patriots.win/p/16ZDh7mo8f/wells-fargo-reported-a-ninety-pe/c/

Banks fell all over themselves to finance an expansion of our house just two weeks ago. The loan officer calls us every two days to see if we got the permits approved so the contractor can start the draws. Loan guy said business is very slow and banks are scrambling to fill enough loans to meet their EOY goals.

 

[Lightning8]

I'm constantly looking at Zillow, Realtor.com, etc. Mostly out of curiosity, but also looking for another small place in Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, or Idaho. I'm see more and more properties listed as "Auction" which equates to foreclosure. It's coming, just a matter of how quickly or slowly it will happen.

I swear this feels like 2008 again

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I swear this feels like 2008 again

Similar to 2008... What I see here is how much "warning" we are getting in this situation. In 2008 the "House of Cards" collapsed rather quickly as did the S&L crash of the late 80's / early 90's. When the Government went to dolling out free money it was obvious that someone was going to have to Pay the Piper. We will be paying.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

75% layoffs

Elon Musk vows to fire 75 PERCENT of Twitter's workforce

Elon Musk told prospective investors in his $44 billion deal to buy Twitter that he plans to get rid of three-quarters of its 7,500 workers, which would leave the company with just 2,000 employees.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Elon has a natural talent to have good people working for him.
Here is one: Gwynne Shotwell
I like what she said.

President of Elon Musk's SpaceX: ‘You don’t learn anything from success, but you learn a lot from your failures’

Gwynne Shotwell joined CEO Elon Musk at SpaceX in 2002 and became president six years later. Today, the company is valued at nearly $28 billion.

www.cnbc.com

 

[lariat]

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

That little bump up in the markets this week was prompted by nothing more than "Hope"... No one is perceiving this is the bottom.
2023 is going to be a long and financially painful year...
Hope is not a plan.

 

[Lightning8]

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Bet the layoffs are in the "white collar" area and not the drivers. Notice all the "tech" company layoffs. Rise of the "robots" as AI/ML eliminates white collar jobs.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Bet the layoffs are in the "white collar" area and not the drivers. Notice all the "tech" company layoffs. Rise of the "robots" as AI/ML eliminates white collar jobs.

That is one more thing to note that is different about this recession.
The middle to lower class Americans working in the "Leisure and Hospitality" are simply pigeon holed into their skills / jobs / dwellings / education / etc. Appearing the first segment of the "White Collar" workers is the disappearance of the male workers who are being replaced by females. A White Collar male being forced down to a blue collar job is not a happy camper. They have no skill / trade, the Journeymen Craftsmen will not work for them since they can't perform the job they expect him to do. That group is between a rock and a hard place.

More and more I am hearing the phrase "The world is changing"... When you hear that, pause, look around and note the changes.
Survival of the Fittest...

 

[Hobo Hilton]

With odds of a split U.S. Congress rising, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that lawmakers’ failure to raise the statutory limit on U.S. debt posed a “huge threat” to America’s credit rating and functioning of U.S. financial markets.



Debt Ceiling

Exclusive: As split Congress odds increase, Yellen warns of need to lift debt ceiling

By David Lawder NUSA DUA, Indonesia (Reuters) - With odds of a split U.S. Congress rising, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that lawmakers' failure to raise the statutory limit on U.S. debt posed a "huge

www.oann.com

 

[Lightning8]

With odds of a split U.S. Congress rising, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that lawmakers’ failure to raise the statutory limit on U.S. debt posed a “huge threat” to America’s credit rating and functioning of U.S. financial markets.



Debt Ceiling
View attachment 7997585

Exclusive: As split Congress odds increase, Yellen warns of need to lift debt ceiling

By David Lawder NUSA DUA, Indonesia (Reuters) - With odds of a split U.S. Congress rising, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that lawmakers' failure to raise the statutory limit on U.S. debt posed a "huge

www.oann.com

Note "raise the debt limit" not "reduce spending to within the limit"

 

[Lightning8]

That is one more thing to note that is different about this recession.
The middle to lower class Americans working in the "Leisure and Hospitality" are simply pigeon holed into their skills / jobs / dwellings / education / etc. Appearing the first segment of the "White Collar" workers is the disappearance of the male workers who are being replaced by females. A White Collar male being forced down to a blue collar job is not a happy camper. They have no skill / trade, the Journeymen Craftsmen will not work for them since they can't perform the job they expect him to do. That group is between a rock and a hard place.

More and more I am hearing the phrase "The world is changing"... When you hear that, pause, look around and note the changes.
Survival of the Fittest...

Corporate America wants to raise their ESG (spelling?) scores - quickest solution is laying off the older workers to make room for younger and more diverse employees (often at lower salaries)

 

[gigamortis]

The ingredients for a stock market crash have been in place for quite a while, except the media (gov propaganda arm) hasn't steered everyone in the markets to run for the exits yet. If an undesireable was still president during these midterms, the stock market value would have already been cut in half.

Then again, with manufactured ballots at their fingertips, engineering a market crash may not be necessary anymore to sway the masses to vote for who the establishment wants in power.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

A large number of Twitter’s contract workers discovered they were suddenly terminated this weekend after they lost access to Slack and other work systems, according to internal communications shared with CNBC by full-time Twitter employees.
An estimated 4,400 of its 5,500 contract workers were cut, according to Platformer, which first reported on the cuts. CNBC has not confirmed the total number.

Twitter cuts a large number of contract workers without giving internal teams a heads up

Since Elon Musk acquired Twitter, the social media business has implemented mass layoffs and now steep cuts to its contract workforce.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Oatly Misses Earnings, Plans to Cut Headcount

The oat-milk company adjusts full-year revenue guidance to $700 million to $720 million, a sharp drop from previous guidance of $800 million to $830 million.

www.marketwatch.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The FED Reserve will drag their feet on rate increases and make this recession very painful through 2023.

“I think what’s really important to emphasize is we’ve done a lot but we have additional work to do both on raising rates and sustaining restraint to bring inflation down to 2% over time,” Brainard said.

........ over time..........

Fed Vice Chair Brainard says it may 'soon' be appropriate to move to slower pace of rate hikes

"I think it will probably be appropriate soon to move to a slower pace of rate increases," she told Bloomberg News in a live interview.

www.cnbc.com

 

[NoDopes]

Amazon reportedly plans to lay off about 10,000 employees starting this week

Amazon plans to lay off approximately 10,000 employees in corporate and technology roles beginning this week, according to a report from The New York Times.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Lightning8]

Amazon reportedly plans to lay off about 10,000 employees starting this week

Amazon plans to lay off approximately 10,000 employees in corporate and technology roles beginning this week, according to a report from The New York Times.

www.cnbc.com

• Amazon is planning to lay off approximately 10,000 employees in corporate and technology roles beginning this week, according to a report from The New York Times.
• The cuts would be the largest in the company’s history and would primarily impact Amazon’s devices organization, retail division and human resources, according to the report.

AI/ML = white collar jobs lost; SKYNET is coming

 

[aam]

This guy is pretty good at explaining things in layman terms.

 

[E. Bryant]

Amazon stock has a trailing PE of about 91. Walmart's is a touch over 27. Amazon had best be damn careful they don't lose the growth-stock narrative at the wrong moment, or else this will be some very expensive cost-cutting.

 

[eca7891]

Ok so this gets a bit self serving at the end but…..

I can’t help but wonder how much truth there is in this.

https://www.americanpartisan.org/20...t-the-coming-recession-and-china-is-watching/

Imo the US dollars world dominance is coming to an end. What the future holds I can’t tell but it will not be good for the US citizens.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Walmart said Tuesday that sales rose by nearly 9% in the fiscal third quarter, as Americans across income levels bought the company’s low-priced groceries.

Every day I am being told "The World is changing". After hearing that for an extended length of time I now say "The World Changed".... This "Changed World" is now the norm. Question: When things are great for Walmart, are things great for America ?

Walmart raises outlook as groceries boost sales, inventory glut recedes

Walmart, the nation's largest grocer, benefited from food sales, as apparel and electronics sales slowed.

www.cnbc.com

 

[eca7891]

You can add dollar general, dollar tree and other low end retailers to that list.

I would say the above may be better indicators. I’m my area Walmart looks high end to dollar general.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Ok so this gets a bit self serving at the end but…..

I can’t help but wonder how much truth there is in this.

https://www.americanpartisan.org/20...t-the-coming-recession-and-china-is-watching/

Imo the US dollars world dominance is coming to an end. What the future holds I can’t tell but it will not be good for the US citizens.

One key word in your statement - "Dominance"....
Several years ago I was in a discussion with some older folks. Two things they were very emphatic about were 1) the Petrodollar and 2) the FED Reserve could never raise the interest rate because then they could not service the debt.
The world changed.
Oil is being traded all over the world with no mention of the USD / Petrodollar and interest rates have risen as well as the national debt.

You are correct about not only the USD but the ability of America to dominate anything on the world's playing field.

So, what is the best position to take in this situation ?

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Household debt soars at fastest pace in 15 years as credit card use surges, Fed report says

Households increased debt during the third quarter at the fastest pace in 15 years due to hefty increases in credit card usage and mortgage balances.

www.cnbc.com

 

[E. Bryant]

This is a pretty spicy take considering the source:

Jeff Bezos' top tips for managing the economic downturn

Amazon founder Jeff Bezos recently warned consumers and businesses they should consider postponing large purchases in the coming months as the global economy contends with a downturn and faces a possible recession.

amp.cnn.com

I don't know if he's really trying to say "hold off on buying that pickup truck so that you can buy a few Kindles from me instead" or if indeed this is some sort of sincere advice. If the latter, it's a fascinating development.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

This is a pretty spicy take considering the source:

Jeff Bezos' top tips for managing the economic downturn

Amazon founder Jeff Bezos recently warned consumers and businesses they should consider postponing large purchases in the coming months as the global economy contends with a downturn and faces a possible recession.

amp.cnn.com

I don't know if he's really trying to say "hold off on buying that pickup truck so that you can buy a few Kindles from me instead" or if indeed this is some sort of sincere advice. If the latter, it's a fascinating development.

I'm seeing some of these quotes as a bit of a hedge. If / when shit goes really bad, their PR people will pull out these old quotes and label them as "forward looking" (ie: I told you so)... But, as of today they will all admit, no one has a crystal ball. The forward thinkers have thrown out their old play book and are formulating the 2023 Play Book. Has anyone noticed how quiet all of those "Think Tanks" have been for the past 6 months ?

 

[eca7891]

Worthy of being posted in a few places.



I will say that this will tie into thing completely at sone point in the near future. How far out I can not say.

 

[Alpine 338]

Questions for you guys. With money becoming more worthless day by day, and not having a crystal ball to look into the future, should I...?

Have the opportunity to purchase a really nice used SUV for well below market value, it's a 2021 with 35K miles. Really don't need another vehicle, but hate seeing my money becoming worthless. I would like to invest in some real estate, but finding something that fits some of my criteria, and still allows me to pay cash is not happening as those properties I'm looking for are still highly inflated from Covid.

 

[NoDopes]

Vegas, hookers, new rifle or two, 20oz of gold.
All better options than an SUV you don't need.

 

[Nbmonte]

Questions for you guys. With money becoming more worthless day by day, and not having a crystal ball to look into the future, should I...?

Have the opportunity to purchase a really nice used SUV for well below market value, it's a 2021 with 35K miles. Really don't need another vehicle, but hate seeing my money becoming worthless. I would like to invest in some real estate, but finding something that fits some of my criteria, and still allows me to pay cash is not happening as those properties I'm looking for are still highly inflated from Covid.

buy more ammo

 

[Alpine 338]

Unfortunately, the gold option is more viable than most others suggested. I'm very short on storage space, so buying more guns and ammo isn't going to work, as I sold a bunch of stuff when I downsized homes. Didn't realize how much crap I owned until it was time to move it.

 

[Alpine 338]

I actually bid today on a collectable vehicle, and got outbid quickly. It's unreal how much collectable vehicles are selling for.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Questions for you guys. With money becoming more worthless day by day, and not having a crystal ball to look into the future, should I...?

Have the opportunity to purchase a really nice used SUV for well below market value, it's a 2021 with 35K miles. Really don't need another vehicle, but hate seeing my money becoming worthless. I would like to invest in some real estate, but finding something that fits some of my criteria, and still allows me to pay cash is not happening as those properties I'm looking for are still highly inflated from Covid.

I understand your dilemma. I have seen this same situation in the previous 3 or 4 recessions. In every case there have been folks who just sat on their nest egg and other's who grew impatient and spent it on other things. Real estate runs in a cycle.. You old guy's have seen it.
The world has changed. I am compiling myself a "New Rule Book". One of the first Rules I added was "You will never be able to buy anything at the pre-pandemic price". If you can accept that rule, continue to build your nest egg and be patient.... That property will present itself.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

For all you folks needing (not wanting) to get a house, 2023 is going to present some opportunities to get a "fair house at a fair price".....
Get over "waiting for the price to drop"... It ain't happening. Get over "waiting for the interest rate to drop"...
Somehow, gather up all the loose cash you can find and put it in the local savings and loan bank... Why ? Because those funds must be locked somewhere traceable, for at least 30 - 60 days, before you just jump up and make an offer on a house. Mortgage underwriters don't like a buyer to get money from any "untraceable sources" at the last minute. Yep, I know... Money sitting in the bank is being eaten by inflation. So what ?... You need a house and there is going to be a lot of pain to get it. Suck it up.

Here is my sobering motivation. If, by the close of 2023 you do not own a house, you will be renting your residence for the rest of your life.

Homebuilder sentiment drops to a decade low, as builders add more incentives

Higher costs and lower demand caused homebuilder sentiment to drop to a decade low.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Black Friday is coming... In more ways than one

A team update from Dave Limp

The message below was shared with the Devices & Services organization earlier today.

www.aboutamazon.com

Amazon lays off some devices employees: Read the memo from hardware chief Dave Limp

Amazon is laying off members of its devices and services team, according to a memo from hardware chief Dave Limp.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Alpine 338]

For all you folks needing (not wanting) to get a house, 2023 is going to present some opportunities to get a "fair house at a fair price".....
Get over "waiting for the price to drop"... It ain't happening. Get over "waiting for the interest rate to drop"...
Somehow, gather up all the loose cash you can find and put it in the local savings and loan bank... Why ? Because those funds must be locked somewhere traceable, for at least 30 - 60 days, before you just jump up and make an offer on a house. Mortgage underwriters don't like a buyer to get money from any "untraceable sources" at the last minute. Yep, I know... Money sitting in the bank is being eaten by inflation. So what ?... You need a house and there is going to be a lot of pain to get it. Suck it up.

Here is my sobering motivation. If, by the close of 2023 you do not own a house, you will be renting your residence for the rest of your life.

Homebuilder sentiment drops to a decade low, as builders add more incentives

Higher costs and lower demand caused homebuilder sentiment to drop to a decade low.

www.cnbc.com

Still not seeing anything moving downward in my local, prices still high, and builder's are still booked out two to three years, with excavation and foundations sitting without any more work being done.

However, I'm seeing inventory starting to increase, not only homes, but vacant lot's.

One weird thing, a new listing popped up down the road for me. Half acre lot for $70K, and it's in a hole. Saw a lot of people pulling over and looking at it this last weekend.