Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024

[Bradu]

And their impact on client’s spending decisions are huge. $10/hr more buys a lot of experience.

One thing that amuses me about the company I'm with now is that it's an esop company and how much they talk it up. They always make a point about how much the higher up people that make considerably more and have been there 30 years have in their retirement. Funny part is, as of a couple years ago, they employed about 1500 people and only 150 were vested. That's a huge red flag to me for a few reasons...


I'm not saying esop is a bad thing but when they announce how much money the company made for the year, people realize how much profit there is. That's when people start questioning why they are making shit wages.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

“Yep, the probabilities in this economy tell you batten down the hatches,” Bezos said in a comment attached to a clip of Solomon’s “Squawk Box” interview.

Jeff Bezos is the latest to warn on the economy, saying it's time to 'batten down the hatches'

Amazon founder Jeff Bezos has become the latest corporate leader to warn about the state of the economy.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

America is feeling the "ripple effect".
"Countries around the world are facing rising costs, driven by Putin's illegal war in Ukraine, and we know this is affecting people here in the UK," he said.
"That is why we have taken decisive actions to hold down bills this winter through the Energy Price Guarantee and provided at least £1,200 of additional cost-of-living support to eight million of the most vulnerable households."

People delay turning heating on as UK inflation soars

Cost of living increases by 10.1% in year to September as BBC survey suggests concern is rising.

www.bbc.com

 

[Fig]

"When the American economy gets a cold the rest of the world gets pneumonia."

We are driving this world recession/depression by cutting off American energy, period. When the President cancels pipelines, refineries, and cuts off access to Federal lands it hurts our economy and when combined with massive spending creates inflation, but when Blackrock and giant investment and pension funds cut off the American energy sector from investment because of their woke, religious reasons it is fucking fatal. It isn't JUST Biden's horrible policies of strangling our economy and American business, it's also Wall Street's wokeness and "Social Investing" that is tanking our economy and the world economy.

The most important thing we could do would be to hold those who did this to account when we get through it. Oddly enough (not), Jamie Diamon of The Goldman Sachs is going the other way. Guess which stock you should buy... Go woke and go broke is about to get supersized, and all the government employees who's pensions are with Blackrock are going to get completely fucked. I would rather die than see all you fucking morons get bailed out with my tax dollars. You absolutely deserve this, because you know exactly what they are doing to us all and you do nothing about it when it's your fucking money!!!! Fuck you in your dead eye socket!

 

[E. Bryant]

It's everything coming home to roost at once. Energy policy? Yep. Stupidly low interest rates causing misallocation of capital into nonproductive assets? Yep. Excessive supply chain fragility driven by an obsession with marginal efficiency gains? Sure thing. Decades of unwise outsourcing? Certainly. Gross neglect of the workforce in favor of directing cash flows to ownership and investors? More than a bit of that. Unsustainable fed.gov debt caused by 20 years of unrestrained spending on forever wars and feel-good social programs? It's a factor.

Truing any subset of these problems won't fix the problem. Everything needs to be addressed simultaneously - hence the opportunity for leftists to execute The Great Reset. The only real counterstrike is the Austrian school, but since the right has been up Keynes' butthole for decades, they can't even comprehend making this shift.

 

[Fig]

The next administration is going to have to have straight up austerity for as long as politically tenable.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Fed officials in Washington acknowledge their fight to reduce high inflation could spawn a recession.

Inflation still high but easing Fed's Beige Book finds, as recession fears grow

Inflation eased a bit in the early fall, a Federal Reserve survey found, but prices were still rising rapidly while higher interest rates socked the economy...

www.marketwatch.com

 

[E. Bryant]

The next administration is going to have to have straight up austerity for as long as politically tenable.

Agreed, but this is politically unacceptable for both parties, and so it won't happen until forced by external events (like a currency collapse). We crossed this Rubicon long ago.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The plan is working:
Sharply higher mortgage rates are causing an abrupt slowdown in the housing market. The average rate on the 30-year fixed home loan is now just over 7%, after starting this year around 3%. That is making an already pricey housing market even less affordable.

Existing home sales fall to a 10-year low in September, as mortgage rates soar

Sales of previously owned homes fell 1.5% in September from August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.71 million units.

www.cnbc.com

 

[BAMAboy18]

The housing bubble of 08 put me out of the swimming pool business, went back to school, nuclear tech. Got divorced and moved further from Plant Farley, I'm not willing to travel 2hrs each way. I've been doing industrial maintenance for 8 years with current co. They treat production employees like shit, place is a rotating door of temps, many underaged immigrants. I'm close to topping out and feel like they are nudging all us older white guys to leave. Usual MO is they put them on night shift and they quit, I've been on nights for 6 years, to include every weekend for the last 2, I'm so lucky, I get to do every Monday morning start up!
I'm being interviewed next Tuesday by a company that will appreciate & pay me for my knowledge, wish me luck!

 

[Bigfatcock]

The housing bubble of 08 put me out of the swimming pool business, went back to school, nuclear tech. Got divorced and moved further from Plant Farley, I'm not willing to travel 2hrs each way. I've been doing industrial maintenance for 8 years with current co. They treat production employees like shit, place is a rotating door of temps, many underaged immigrants. I'm close to topping out and feel like they are nudging all us older white guys to leave. Usual MO is they put them on night shift and they quit, I've been on nights for 6 years, to include every weekend for the last 2, I'm so lucky, I get to do every Monday morning start up!
I'm being interviewed next Tuesday by a company that will appreciate & pay me for my knowledge, wish me luck!

Good luck!

 

[Hobo Hilton]

After reading this I get the feeling that inflation will continue through 2023.

Elon Musk says a global recession could last until the spring of 2024

Tesla founder Elon Musk thinks the global economic contraction can last for another year and a half.

www.cnbc.com

 

[babyguppy]

75% layoffs

Elon Musk vows to fire 75 PERCENT of Twitter's workforce

Elon Musk told prospective investors in his $44 billion deal to buy Twitter that he plans to get rid of three-quarters of its 7,500 workers, which would leave the company with just 2,000 employees.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[BAMAboy18]

After reading this I get the feeling that inflation will continue through 2023.

Elon Musk says a global recession could last until the spring of 2024

Tesla founder Elon Musk thinks the global economic contraction can last for another year and a half.

www.cnbc.com

Yeah, I accepted the fact Elon is way smarter than I. I like him, so far he seems very genuine in his quest to better mankind. But I'll never own an EV, other than my golf cart, even he recognizes that they are not for everyone.

 

[babyguppy]

Yeah, I accepted the fact Elon is way smarter than I. I like him, so far he seems very genuine in his quest to better mankind. But I'll never own an EV, other than my golf cart, even he recognizes that they are not for everyone.

I'd buy a Hybrid in a second.
Audi Q8 diesel hybrid, over 120 mpg. yup, in a big vehicle. USA doesn't want them here, probably because they are too damn efficient.
Audi and VW also has some 93 mpg diesel 'cars' - smaller cars.. but at 93mpg.. go boy!

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Appearing that Japan is simply playing the game of "Who will tap out first"....

Many market players doubt whether Tokyo can reverse the yen's downtrend with solo intervention, even with Japan's $1.33 trillion in foreign reserves.

https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-10-22/japan-intervened-buying-yen-in-foreign-exchange-market-late-friday-sources

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Like the ECB and the Bank of England, the Fed is operating in an environment of extraordinary uncertainty.

Tightening Monetary Policy Will Put a Hole in the Fed’s Balance Sheet

The Fed and other central banks are operating in an environment of extraordinary uncertainty. The balance-sheet implications need more attention, writes...

www.marketwatch.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

‘It’s acts of God’: Mississippi River shrivels, leaving many to pray for rain

The extremely low river has threatened the supply chain and drinking water supplies. Emergency dredging operations have been deployed and an underwater levee is being built.

www.theadvocate.com

 

[babyguppy]

‘It’s acts of God’: Mississippi River shrivels, leaving many to pray for rain

The extremely low river has threatened the supply chain and drinking water supplies. Emergency dredging operations have been deployed and an underwater levee is being built.

www.theadvocate.com

Hank Williams Jr been saying, "the preacher man's been saying Mississippi river is going dry"; since 1982
....

 

[lariat]

Who didnt see this coming for those who refuse to return to work?

MSN

www.msn.com

 

[babyguppy]

Who didnt see this coming for those who refuse to return to work?

MSN

www.msn.com

as in a real recession recession or one of those 'redefined' recession recessions.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Who didnt see this coming for those who refuse to return to work?

MSN

www.msn.com

Who didnt see this coming for those who refuse to return to work?

MSN

www.msn.com

WFH was never supposed to be a permanent fix.... Only a Band-aid to get through the, so called, pandemic. Pealing the Band-aid off is always painful.... Especially if it is left on way too long. Historically, seems like more people relocate during a recession than during the boom times...
Link shows the moves during 2021.... We may see a reversal during 2023.
JMHO

Here Are the States Americans Don’t Want to Live In Anymore (2022) – Zippia

www.zippia.com

 

[lariat]

Be careful before 'quick quitting' and joining the Great Resignation. Your employer may hand you a bill for your job training.

 

[E. Bryant]

Who didnt see this coming for those who refuse to return to work?

MSN

www.msn.com

The lazy shitheads will be punished. But the companies who can't (or won't) give their best employees options will find themselves without those employees. This has been a long time coming.

 

[Snipe260]

Good luck!

Sammie’s go go?

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Who didnt see this coming for those who refuse to return to work?

MSN

www.msn.com

Along those same lines... Remote Learning did not work out either.

Nation's Report Card shows historic drop in academic scores

The Nation's 2022 Report Card indicates all children were vulnerable to academic disruption from the pandemic

www.kpax.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Interesting cycle... People save for years to buy a house. Just when they are about there, the market moves away from them. So, what do they do ? They take that saved up nest egg and spend it on a new car, boat or other toy. 6 months pass and the bottom falls out of the housing market. Next they attempt to sell off that car, boat or toy to get enough cash to put a down payment on a house that becomes "affordable"..... LOL

Mortgage demand from homebuyers is now nearly half what it was a year ago

Sharply higher mortgage rates caused mortgage demand to drop to the lowest level since 1997.

www.cnbc.com

 

[lariat]

Interesting cycle... People save for years to buy a house. Just when they are about there, the market moves away from them. So, what do they do ? They take that saved up nest egg and spend it on a new car, boat or other toy. 6 months pass and the bottom falls out of the housing market. Next they attempt to sell off that car, boat or toy to get enough cash to put a down payment on a house that becomes "affordable"..... LOL

Mortgage demand from homebuyers is now nearly half what it was a year ago

Sharply higher mortgage rates caused mortgage demand to drop to the lowest level since 1997.

www.cnbc.com

If one cannot see the layoffs coming, especially in trades that deal with home building they are blind or in denial.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Here are another 3,000 who will not be house hunting in 2023.

Seagate will cut 3,000 employees in latest sign of major PC and cloud slowdown

Hard drive maker Seagate Technology said on Wednesday it plans to cut 8% of its global workforce, or about 3,000 employee.

www.cnbc.com

 

[E. Bryant]

If one cannot see the layoffs coming, especially in trades that deal with home building they are blind or in denial.

Well, that pretty describes the vast majority of consumers nowadays, so...

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Central banks must continue raising interest rates to hit ‘neutral’ level: IMF chief - National | Globalnews.ca

Central banks have to bring rates up because "when inflation runs high, that undermines growth, it hits the poorest parts of the population the hardest," says Kristalina Georgieva.

globalnews.ca

 

[Hobo Hilton]

A 'catastrophe' is coming for the economy, but it's not recession or inflation, says Secretary of Labor Marty Walsh

Department of Labor Secretary Marty Walsh says jobs will grow despite a slowing economy, but without immigration reform, a bigger 'catastrophe' is coming.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

With the high stakes in mind, both markets and lawmakers will be listening closely to Powell’s post-meeting news conference next Wednesday, which will come six days before the election.

Powell again is facing political pressure as worries mount over the economy

No stranger to political pressure, the Fed chief this week found himself the focus of concern in a letter from Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

GDP is up due to posting inflation related numbers.

“Overall, while the 2.6% rebound in the third quarter more than reversed the decline in the first half of the year, we don’t expect this strength to be sustained,” wrote Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics. “Exports will soon fade and domestic demand is getting crushed under the weight of higher interest rates. We expect the economy to enter a mild recession in the first half of next year.”

U.S. GDP accelerated at 2.6% pace in Q3, better than expected as growth turns positive

Gross domestic product was expected to grow at a 2.3% annualized pace in the third quarter, according to Dow Jones.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Millions of Americans are living 'paycheck-to-paycheck' — as savings plunge to lowest level since Great Recession

'Americans’ monthly expenses have outpaced their personal income growth,” one expert said.

www.marketwatch.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Signs of an impending U.S. recession keep piling up, and now another widely followed bond-market measure is starting to flash its own warning.
It’s the spread between yields on the 3-month Treasury bill TMUBMUSD03M, 4.031% and the 10-year note TMUBMUSD10Y, 3.938%, which started going negative on Tuesday and drifted in and out of inversion as of Thursday morning. It finished Wednesday’s U.S. trading session below zero for the first time since March 2, 2020, at the onset of the U.S. Covid-19 pandemic, according to Tradeweb.

Recession ahead? This bond-market indicator is flashing a 'code orange' warning.

Another key measure of the yield curve is inverting, sending a recession warning.

www.marketwatch.com

 

[lariat]

US Mortgage Rates Soar Past 7% for the First Time Since 2002

 

[E. Bryant]

I don't like the way that the Y-axis label ranges are established on this chart (that's some USA Today-level bullshit), but it does drive home a point about the strength of the American consumer:

Just wait until these people are tapped-out and begin to capitulate. I think the major question is "when?" - before the Christmas shopping season, or after.

Keep some cash handy for the bargain shopping opportunities.

 

[lariat]

I don't like the way that the Y-axis label ranges are established on this chart (that's some USA Today-level bullshit), but it does drive home a point about the strength of the American consumer:

View attachment 7987038

Just wait until these people are tapped-out and begin to capitulate. I think the major question is "when?" - before the Christmas shopping season, or after.

Keep some cash handy for the bargain shopping opportunities.

The indentured servitude people are putting themselves under outside of inflationary pressures is staggering. IMO it speaks to a very real addiction to a materialistic lifestyle that is never satisfied. The emotional crises that will be coming about is going to be huge. All because of an inability to be satisfied with life in the most prosperous country in the world.

 

[E. Bryant]

The indentured servitude people are putting themselves under outside of inflationary pressures is staggering. IMO it speaks to a very real addiction to a materialistic lifestyle that is never satisfied. The emotional crises that will be coming about is going to be huge. All because of an inability to be satisfied with life in the most prosperous country in the world.

Holy shit - did you just sit in on the same Sunday morning sermon that I did?

I'd be lying if I claimed to be immune to such pressure; I'm simply fortunate enough that I'm valuable enough to make decent money and disciplined enough to keep my expenditures less than my income. That puts me in the top few percent of middle-class consumers, but the big guy upstairs is probably not happy with the number of guns in my safe and cars in the garage. I mean, just look at my posts in this thread where I'm stating my intention to purchase "distressed assets", when I should instead be thankful that I'll hopefully be in a position to give freely at a time when others cannot.

Fortunately for my community, my wife is much better at this than I am.

Thanks for the dose of reality this morning

 

[lariat]

Holy shit - did you just sit in on the same Sunday morning sermon that I did?

I'd be lying if I claimed to be immune to such pressure; I'm simply fortunate enough that I'm valuable enough to make decent money and disciplined enough to keep my expenditures less than my income. That puts me in the top few percent of middle-class consumers, but the big guy upstairs is probably not happy with the number of guns in my safe and cars in the garage. I mean, just look at my posts in this thread where I'm stating my intention to purchase "distressed assets", when I should instead be thankful that I'll hopefully be in a position to give freely at a time when others cannot.

Fortunately for my community, my wife is much better at this than I am.

Thanks for the dose of reality this morning

Well, the topic was on my mind, so I was probably armed for bear when your post popped up. Right after that I went and taught my Sunday School class out of Isaiah and we discussed the weakness and puffed up pride that materialism can cause when prosperity is only used to serve one’s desires. Not the funnest study but one that lands square into our society today. Seems like the hardest thing to be these days is happy and grateful. Those that can do that tend to escape a lot of traps in this world.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I don't like the way that the Y-axis label ranges are established on this chart (that's some USA Today-level bullshit), but it does drive home a point about the strength of the American consumer:

View attachment 7987038

Just wait until these people are tapped-out and begin to capitulate. I think the major question is "when?" - before the Christmas shopping season, or after.

Keep some cash handy for the bargain shopping opportunities.

The chart forecast "The Perfect Storm".... While the chart does not portray a large portion of the American people... There is going to be the "ripple effect" that will impact every American...

 

[Hobo Hilton]

As long as the "Free Money" flows.... Inflation will increase.

“The big question will be, given the resilience the economy has had to interest-rate increases so far, whether that will actually be sufficient,” said former Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren. “The risks are they’re going to have to do a bit more than they’re suggesting.”

U.S. households still have around $1.7 trillion in savings they accumulated through mid-2021 above and beyond what they would have saved if income and spending had grown in line with the prepandemic economy, according to estimates by Fed economists. Around $350 billion in excess savings as of June were held by the lower half of the income distribution, or around $5,500 per household on average.

Cash-Rich Consumers Could Mean Higher Interest Rates for Longer

Consumers and businesses buoyed by pandemic-fueled savings are proving less sensitive to tighter credit, which means more work for the Fed.

www.wsj.com

 

[gigamortis]

Don’t discount the role the media plays in keeping the economic outlook looking rosy enough to help sway elections. Just look at the chaos they created and perpetuated with the chyna virus. The populace ate it up like candy.

Back in 2008, the media sure did lead the way to make the populace lose faith in the economy so it would crash in order to usher in the Kenyan.

 

[E. Bryant]

Man, who could have predicted this?

Housing expert: Homeowners are locked in by their low mortgage rate

The housing market is in the midst of a major shift as the Federal Reserve continues to hike interest rates to tame inflation.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Man, who could have predicted this?

Housing expert: Homeowners are locked in by their low mortgage rate

The housing market is in the midst of a major shift as the Federal Reserve continues to hike interest rates to tame inflation.

finance.yahoo.com

This describes my housing / mortgage situation. I'm not complaining.... Long ago, I was locked in on a 5 year with a "Balloon"......

 

[devildog93]

This describes my housing / mortgage situation. I'm not complaining.... Long ago, I was locked in on a 5 year with a "Balloon"......

We paid ours off this year and had planned on moving up, but now I think that may be a ways off. Circling the wagons it is.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

CEO Soren Skou said the “exceptional results” this year were driven by a continued rise in ocean freight rates, but said it was clear that these have peaked and will begin to normalize in the fourth quarter amid falling demand and an easing of supply chain congestion. Skou flagged that earnings in Maersk’s ocean operations will come down in the coming months.

World’s largest container shipping firm Maersk, a barometer for global trade, warns of 'dark clouds on the horizon'

Maersk, the world's largest shipping container firm, on Wednesday posted record profit for the third quarter on the back of high ocean freight rates.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Wages overall rose 7.7% from a year ago, down just slightly from the September pace............. ?

Private payrolls rose 239,000 in October, better than expected, while wages increased 7.7%, ADP says

Companies added 239,000 positions in October, ahead of the Dow Jones estimate of 195,000, ADP reported Wednesday.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Jerome Powell, today:

Powell: ‘No one knows if there is going to be a recession or not’​

Powell says a soft landing is still possible but path has narrowed​

Powell: My main message is Fed has ‘a ways to go’ to get rates up to bring inflation down​

Powell says Fed wants wages to go up, but at a sustainable pace​

Powell: It may take some time to get inflation down​

Powell: It is ‘very premature’ to be thinking about pausing interest-rate hikes​

My take on this is "You people are screwed for the entire year of 2023.