Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024

[Hobo Hilton]

Hang on to your HATS.. It's double speak time.
Low Unemployment -

The U.S. Economy Added 263,000 Jobs in September, Unemployment Rate Fell to 3.5%

Economists had expected the economy to add 250,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.7 percent. | Economy

www.breitbart.com

High jobless claims

New U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims in Unexpected Surge

The number of Americans filing fresh claims for jobless benefits jumped by the most in four months last week.

www.breitbart.com

Labor Participation chart says what?

U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate 1991-2024

Labor force participation rate for ages 15-24 is the proportion of the population ages 15-24 that is economically active: all people who supply labor for the production of goods and services during a specified period.

www.macrotrends.net

The plan is to keep the rats (We the People) in the maze until we run out of resources (food, water, money,fuel,security, etc)....
Propaganda is their weapon.

 

[308pirate]

The IMF has lowered its global growth forecast for 2022 and 2023 to 3.2% and 2.9%, respectively, a global recession may be imminent. The World Economic Forum's Chief Economists Outlook for September 2022 surveyed economic leaders from around the world to collect insights on their reading of the global economic situation. The outlook is grim, with 73% of respondents believing that a global recession is either somewhat likely or extremely likely.

Are economic headwinds blowing in the direction of a global recession? Economists answer | World Economic Forum

So your only economic analysis skill is copy/paste?

Does anyone pay for your analysis, or are you one of those who pretends to know what they're talking about because they read something on the internet?

 

[babyguppy]

So your only economic analysis skill is copy/paste?

Does anyone pay for your analysis, or are you one of those who pretends to know what they're talking about because they read something on the internet?

Hobo posts news articles. Saves people from having to chase them down. I post what I find as well; that is relevant to this thread.
cliff notes - it's bad and going to get worse.
Now, if you're working for the potatoe, you are looking at one of the greatest economies the USA has ever seen; and I'll redefine anything to prove it.
High Gas prices - GREAT, get rid of fossil fuels, don't worry about China not following. We'll buy their stuff.
Nuclear - BAD, too cheap, so, lets regulate the hell out of hit, and make it expensive and tell everyone it's dangerous
EV vehicles - GREAT - even though we don't have enough minerals to meet world demand and then run on fossile fuels produced somewhere else. the rich and elite will finally have the roads to themselves. Is there traffic in North Korea?
HI Energy costs - Well Obama did warn us that the above, would contribute to this, but damn it, your suffering is worth saving the planet
CARBON TRADING - thanks Al Gore, your carbon trading scheme forced upon countries have made your friends millions of dollars.
Money - Don't worry about that, government has you covered. Earn credits and insert the plastic. Movies about this for the last 100 years, but nobody believes it till it's real.
Inflation - greatest thing since sliced bread, who doesn't love watching their dollar buy less. Just means you have to go get another job and earn more.
Rising Oceans - Yup, and I'll buy a house on Martha's Vineyards to watch it rise cause I'm worried.
Enjoy, and they'll redefine what happiness is as well as the Amercian dream.

don't worry, CNN tells me

 

[308pirate]

Hobo posts news articles. Saves people from having to chase them down. I post what I find as well; that is relevant to this thread.
cliff notes - it's bad and going to get worse.
Now, if you're working for the potatoe, you are looking at one of the greatest economies the USA has ever seen; and I'll redefine anything to prove it.
High Gas prices - GREAT, get rid of fossil fuels, don't worry about China not following. We'll buy their stuff.
Nuclear - BAD, too cheap, so, lets regulate the hell out of hit, and make it expensive and tell everyone it's dangerous
EV vehicles - GREAT - even though we don't have enough minerals to meet world demand and then run on fossile fuels produced somewhere else. the rich and elite will finally have the roads to themselves. Is there traffic in North Korea?
HI Energy costs - Well Obama did warn us that the above, would contribute to this, but damn it, your suffering is worth saving the planet
CARBON TRADING - thanks Al Gore, your carbon trading scheme forced upon countries have made your friends millions of dollars.
Money - Don't worry about that, government has you covered. Earn credits and insert the plastic. Movies about this for the last 100 years, but nobody believes it till it's real.
Inflation - greatest thing since sliced bread, who doesn't love watching their dollar buy less. Just means you have to go get another job and earn more.
Rising Oceans - Yup, and I'll buy a house on Martha's Vineyards to watch it rise cause I'm worried.
Enjoy, and they'll redefine what happiness is as well as the Amercian dream.

don't worry, CNN tells me

Believe it or not, most of us don't need idiot savants to tell us what's going on.

 

[vinniedelpino]

So your only economic analysis skill is copy/paste?

Does anyone pay for your analysis, or are you one of those who pretends to know what they're talking about because they read something on the internet?

At this point I'm convinced that high level macroeconomic analysis is all bullshit, regardless of the analysts accolades and credentials.

Quantitative easing only came into widespread application after the 2007/2008 recession. Our current economic situation is unprecedented, and there are far too many moving parts to wrap one's head around with world economies being intertwined the way they are.

Arguing about macro in today's day and age is akin to arguing about aliens or the origins of the universe. As far as I'm concerned, our lust for short term gratification has put us on an uncharted path at 100mph with a blindfold on.

Does anyone really know what's on the horizon? I seriously doubt it. It's all based on theory, not proven models nowadays.

 

[babyguppy]

At this point I'm convinced that high level macroeconomic analysis is all bullshit, regardless of the analysts accolades and credentials.

Quantitative easing only came into widespread application after the 2007/2008 recession. Our current economic situation is unprecedented, and there are far too many moving parts to wrap one's head around with world economies being intertwined the way they are.

Arguing about macro in today's day and age is akin to arguing about aliens or the origins of the universe. As far as I'm concerned, our lust for short term gratification has put us on an uncharted path at 100mph with a blindfold on.

Does anyone really know what's on the horizon? I seriously doubt it. It's all based on theory, not proven models nowadays.

It can go two ways and both outcomes stink.

1) Mad Max 2 (I love the blue healer)​

2) 1984​

maybe 3 if you want to toss in the hunger game, which appears to be 1+2 = 3​

 

[devildog93]

It can go two ways and both outcomes stink.

1) Mad Max 2 (I love the blue healer)​

2) 1984​

maybe 3 if you want to toss in the hunger game, which appears to be 1+2 = 3​

I'm going with option 3, hunger games. It seems the closest to following what we are going through.

 

[lariat]

At this point I'm convinced that high level macroeconomic analysis is all bullshit, regardless of the analysts accolades and credentials.

Quantitative easing only came into widespread application after the 2007/2008 recession. Our current economic situation is unprecedented, and there are far too many moving parts to wrap one's head around with world economies being intertwined the way they are.

There were two dudes - Greenspan and Bernake. "Helicopter Ben" was his name for a reason. QE4 isn't anything new, its just being used AGAIN. Its has been used before and called other names. Its an old game.

GREENSPAN: QE Has Not Worked

The former Fed chair said during the FOMC meetings.

www.businessinsider.com

Greenspan on QE2, Greece and the Debt Ceiling

We have closed out the second quarter and first half of 2011. Today also marks another very important day: the end of QE2. Many unknown factors leave Wall Street wondering: what's next from the central bank? In a CNBC Exclusive, Maria Bartiromo sat down with former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan...

www.cnbc.com

QE2: Fed pulls the trigger

Here's the news Wall Street has been waiting for: In its latest move to jumpstart the sluggish economy, the Federal Reserve will pump billions into the economy.

money.cnn.com

No Chance of Default, US Can Print Money: Greenspan

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan on Sunday ruled out the chance of a US default following S&P's decision to downgrade America's credit rating.

www.cnbc.com

Don't Trust Ben Bernanke On Helicopter Money

Ben Bernanke earned the sobriquet “Helicopter Ben” for his observations in a 2002 speech that “the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost”, that the...

www.forbes.com

"In Bernanke’s model, if people believe that some policy will cause inflation, then inflation will indeed occur—because people will immediately charge more for what they sell (business owners will put up prices, workers will demand higher wages). In other words, the belief itself—that inflation will be caused by the policy—actually causes the inflation. People do this because they all use the same model for predicting the future course of the economy, and in this model there is a direct relationship between changes in the money supply and increases in prices."

 

[babyguppy]

Damn, I missed reading a few of those, much appreciated.
I love this part

if people believe that some policy will cause inflation, then inflation will indeed occur​

 

[lariat]

Believe it or not, most of us don't need idiot savants to tell us what's going on.

While I agree with this to a degree, the amount of idiot savants at the helm of the Fed is staggering.

 

[babyguppy]

While I agree with this to a degree, the amount of idiot savants at the helm of the Fed is staggering.

They seem to be serving their masters pretty well.

 

[lariat]

Damn, I missed reading a few of those, much appreciated.
I love this part

if people believe that some policy will cause inflation, then inflation will indeed occur​

Yup. Inflation is OUR fault because WE caused it. That's what was said essentially. We are too dumb to understand that its not the extra money sloshing around, its US. Those of us with degrees in this subject matter know better. And I strongly suspect they do too, and what Bernake did was show his elitist ass.

 

[rtB]

It is interesting that there are never ending "news stories" about FED policy errors, FED underestimating this, FED overestimating that, FED moving too slow, FED jumping the gun etc etc. Yet month after month, year after year the same group of elitists get richer and the middle class gets squeezed harder, and the poor get a little poorer. Weird.

 

[vinniedelpino]

There were two dudes - Greenspan and Bernake. "Helicopter Ben" was his name for a reason. QE4 isn't anything new, its just being used AGAIN. Its has been used before and call other names. Its an old game.

GREENSPAN: QE Has Not Worked

The former Fed chair said during the FOMC meetings.

www.businessinsider.com

Greenspan on QE2, Greece and the Debt Ceiling

We have closed out the second quarter and first half of 2011. Today also marks another very important day: the end of QE2. Many unknown factors leave Wall Street wondering: what's next from the central bank? In a CNBC Exclusive, Maria Bartiromo sat down with former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan...

www.cnbc.com

QE2: Fed pulls the trigger

Here's the news Wall Street has been waiting for: In its latest move to jumpstart the sluggish economy, the Federal Reserve will pump billions into the economy.

money.cnn.com

No Chance of Default, US Can Print Money: Greenspan

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan on Sunday ruled out the chance of a US default following S&P's decision to downgrade America's credit rating.

www.cnbc.com

Don't Trust Ben Bernanke On Helicopter Money

Ben Bernanke earned the sobriquet “Helicopter Ben” for his observations in a 2002 speech that “the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost”, that the...

www.forbes.com

"In Bernanke’s model, if people believe that some policy will cause inflation, then inflation will indeed occur—because people will immediately charge more for what they sell (business owners will put up prices, workers will demand higher wages). In other words, the belief itself—that inflation will be caused by the policy—actually causes the inflation. People do this because they all use the same model for predicting the future course of the economy, and in this model there is a direct relationship between changes in the money supply and increases in prices."

Japan pioneered quantitative easing in the early 2000s. We picked up that ball and ran with it in 2007.

There is no QE1, QE2, QE3 etc. It's all a single, drawn out experiment in economics that's been going on for the last 20 years.

Once the fed deflates its balance sheet and we come out on the other side OK a precedent will have been set, and we'll at least have some idea whether or not QE is a viable strategy going forward.

Until then, every analyst/economist that takes part in this experiment is either speculating (at best) or completely talking out of their ass (at worst.)

It's probably the single biggest economic gamble in the history of civilization and the assholes in charge are wagering the prosperity of several generations throughout the entire world.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

It is interesting that there are never ending "news stories" about FED policy errors, FED underestimating this, FED overestimating that, FED moving too slow, FED jumping the gun etc etc. Yet month after month, year after year the same group of elitists get richer and the middle class gets squeezed harder, and the poor get a little poorer. Weird.

We are not hearing any complaints from the "Poor".. The Government has placed several safety nets under the "Poor"... Notice how there are no more stories of "Hunger in America" ?... The Government is, basically, feeding the people. The largest contributor to Food Banks is the USDA. When a person runs out of Unemployment qualifications, they roll over to the local food bank for their meals. If they have a child in the house, more Government funds roll in. The list of qualifications for Government subsistence gets longer by the day. When winter rolls around there will be no one in America freezing to death because there will be Government programs to keep the heat on in the homes of the poor. Watch the government in Europe keep people warm... One way or another.

The plan is working. Total dependence on the Government.

 

[lariat]

Japan pioneered quantitative easing in the early 2000s. We picked up that ball and ran with it in 2007.

There is no QE1, QE2, QE3 etc. It's all a single, drawn out experiment in economics that's been going on for the last 20 years.

Once the fed deflates its balance sheet and we come out on the other side OK a precedent will have been set, and we'll at least have some idea whether or not QE is a viable strategy going forward.

Until then, every analyst/economist that takes part in this experiment is either speculating (at best) or completely talking out of their ass (at worst.)

It's probably the single biggest economic gamble in the history of civilization and the assholes in charge are wagering the prosperity of several generations throughout the entire world.

You didn't read those other articles did you?

What are the differences between QE1, QE2 and QE3?

Last week, when discussing what QE3 could look like I indicated that were the Federal Reserve to start expanding its balance sheet, QE3 will see interest rate caps after a pause and period of refle…

creditwritedowns.com

https://www.federalreserve.gov/Events/conferences/2012/cbc/confpaper1/confpaper1.pdf

Did the Bush Economic Stimulus Package Work?

President George Bush launched an economic stimulus package in 2008 to head off a recession. What were the pros and cons of the plan, and did it work?

www.thebalancemoney.com

George W. Bush: Stimulus President | Demos

One aggravating element of today's economic debate is how conservatives oppose stimulus spending even as they trumpet the economic record of past Republican presidents.

www.demos.org

CNN.com - First rebate checks sent to taxpayers - July 20, 2001

1992, HW Bush


1993, Clinton

https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1993/03/19/house-passes-clinton-plan-economic-stimulus-package/efcaf36d-b5b1-4c63-a01b-3e5a26620b5b/

"Yesterday, Treasury Secretary Lloyd Bentsen had to ask Congress to raise the federal government's debt ceiling to $4.37 trillion from the current $4.145 trillion. He said the Treasury would reach the current limit on April 7 and he asked lawmakers to act by March 26 to "avoid unnecessary uncertainty in financial markets."

The House budget resolution calls for overall spending to grow from $1.5 trillion in fiscal 1994 to $1.78 trillion in 1998, largely as the result of the mounting costs of Medicare and Medicaid and other entitlement programs."

Clinton has proposed new "investment" spending for education, job training, social services, health, science and technology and community development totaling $231 billion over five years. The budget resolution contains about $4.6 billion in new spending for those purposes in fiscal 1994."

Every single administration has done their version of QE. They called it stimulus, increasing the debt ceiling, tax cuts or some other stupidity. Its how we got to the very idea that QE 1,2 3 and now 4 are legitimate actions. QE is the child of those policies and Keynesian economics being implemented by people with an obvious cocaine and meth habit.

 

[vinniedelpino]

You didn't read those other articles did you?

What are the differences between QE1, QE2 and QE3?

Last week, when discussing what QE3 could look like I indicated that were the Federal Reserve to start expanding its balance sheet, QE3 will see interest rate caps after a pause and period of refle…

creditwritedowns.com

https://www.federalreserve.gov/Events/conferences/2012/cbc/confpaper1/confpaper1.pdf

Did the Bush Economic Stimulus Package Work?

President George Bush launched an economic stimulus package in 2008 to head off a recession. What were the pros and cons of the plan, and did it work?

www.thebalancemoney.com

George W. Bush: Stimulus President | Demos

One aggravating element of today's economic debate is how conservatives oppose stimulus spending even as they trumpet the economic record of past Republican presidents.

www.demos.org

CNN.com - First rebate checks sent to taxpayers - July 20, 2001

1992, HW Bush


1993, Clinton

https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1993/03/19/house-passes-clinton-plan-economic-stimulus-package/efcaf36d-b5b1-4c63-a01b-3e5a26620b5b/

"Yesterday, Treasury Secretary Lloyd Bentsen had to ask Congress to raise the federal government's debt ceiling to $4.37 trillion from the current $4.145 trillion. He said the Treasury would reach the current limit on April 7 and he asked lawmakers to act by March 26 to "avoid unnecessary uncertainty in financial markets."

The House budget resolution calls for overall spending to grow from $1.5 trillion in fiscal 1994 to $1.78 trillion in 1998, largely as the result of the mounting costs of Medicare and Medicaid and other entitlement programs."

Clinton has proposed new "investment" spending for education, job training, social services, health, science and technology and community development totaling $231 billion over five years. The budget resolution contains about $4.6 billion in new spending for those purposes in fiscal 1994."

Every single administration has done their version of QE. They called it stimulus, increasing the debt ceiling, tax cuts or some other stupidity. Its how we got to the very idea that QE 1,2 3 and now 4 are legitimate actions. QE is the child of those policies and Keynesian economics being implemented by people with an obvious cocaine and meth habit.

I did. Ole' Ben is second guessing the long term impact of his monetary policies. And rightfully so.

QE and operating at a deficit aren't one and the same. Hell, our country was founded on debt to France and the Netherlands. Even wealth redistribution by way of tax subsidies dates back to at least the mid 70's when the EITC was introduced. That's another issue altogether.

Quantitative easing involves government acquisition of securities on the open market to manipulate interest rates and (for all intents and purposes) increase the money supply through the wonders of fractional reserve banking. Round 1,2,3 and 4 are all the same thing. QE1 isn't complete until the Fed unwinds its balance sheet. Only then will we know whether or not this approach is viable. The fact that big govt phased in QE under four "rounds" is irrelevant.

No sense in picking the fly shit out of the pepper though. It's all bullshit. I think we're on the same page.

 

[lariat]

I did. Ole' Ben is second guessing the long term impact of his monetary policies. And rightfully so.

QE and operating at a deficit aren't one and the same. Hell, our country was founded on debt to France and the Netherlands. Even wealth redistribution by way of tax subsidies dates back to at least the mid 70's when the EITC was introduced. That's another issue altogether.

Quantitative easing involves government acquisition of securities on the open market to manipulate interest rates and (for all intents and purposes) increase the money supply through the wonders of fractional reserve banking. Round 1,2,3 and 4 are all the same thing. QE1 isn't complete until the Fed unwinds its balance sheet. Only then will we know whether or not this approach is viable. The fact that big govt phased in QE under four "rounds" is irrelevant.

No sense in picking the fly shit out of the pepper though. It's all bullshit. I think we're on the same page.

With this post I now believe that we are essentially in agreement. I don’t think the balance sheet will ever be made whole, just like I strongly suspect that LTC debt was pushed to other banks And then pushed to the Fed in QE1 due the various investment pools that those original banks were also involved in.

 

[lariat]

I did. Ole' Ben is second guessing the long term impact of his monetary policies. And rightfully so.

QE and operating at a deficit aren't one and the same. Hell, our country was founded on debt to France and the Netherlands. Even wealth redistribution by way of tax subsidies dates back to at least the mid 70's when the EITC was introduced. That's another issue altogether.

Quantitative easing involves government acquisition of securities on the open market to manipulate interest rates and (for all intents and purposes) increase the money supply through the wonders of fractional reserve banking. Round 1,2,3 and 4 are all the same thing. QE1 isn't complete until the Fed unwinds its balance sheet. Only then will we know whether or not this approach is viable. The fact that big govt phased in QE under four "rounds" is irrelevant.

No sense in picking the fly shit out of the pepper though. It's all bullshit. I think we're on the same page.

I do believe that we are essentially in agreement. I don’t think the balance sheet will ever be made whole, just like I strongly suspect that LTC debt was pushed to other banks And then pushed to the Fed in QE1 due the various investment pools that those original banks were also involved in. Can’t prove it though.

 

[vinniedelpino]

I do believe that we are essentially in agreement. I don’t think the balance sheet will ever be made whole, just like I strongly suspect that LTC debt was pushed to other banks And then pushed to the Fed in QE1 due the various investment pools that those original banks were also involved in. Can’t prove it though.

Who knows.

However this plays out, I see a massive shift in the distribution of wealth coming over the next few years. Fortunes will be won and lost. The average Joe will take a beating and new elites will emerge from the ashes.

 

[babyguppy]

I saw this and laughed

Jobs Report Could Provoke an Inflation Scare​

so, Inflation must just be worrisome, but a jobs report, might create a scare?

Breitbart Business Digest: Jobs Report Could Provoke an Inflation Scare

The Department of Labor will issue its report on September payrolls, unemployment, and wages on Friday. It may be the most hotly anticipated jobs report in recent memory.

www.breitbart.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Job growth remained strong overall in September, but declines in several sectors led to a slowdown compared to hot readings during the summer.
Leisure and hospitality was the standout sector, growing by 83,000 jobs.
_________
Unfortunately "Leisure and hospitality" will never Make America Great Again.....

Here's where the jobs are for September 2022 — in one chart

Leisure and hospitality and health care saw solid growth in September.

www.cnbc.com

 

[babyguppy]

Job growth remained strong overall in September, but declines in several sectors led to a slowdown compared to hot readings during the summer.
Leisure and hospitality was the standout sector, growing by 83,000 jobs.
_________
Unfortunately "Leisure and hospitality" will never Make America Great Again.....

Here's where the jobs are for September 2022 — in one chart

Leisure and hospitality and health care saw solid growth in September.

www.cnbc.com

all those CRAPPY low paying jobs that nobody wants, because you CAN'T make a living.
Besides, with Gov benefits, it pays to work 1 PT job; that's all you need to qualify (and mom's basement)

 

[vinniedelpino]

all those CRAPPY low paying jobs that nobody wants, because you CAN'T make a living.
Besides, with Gov benefits, it pays to work 1 PT job; that's all you need to qualify (and mom's basement)

$18k and four kids will net you a refund north of $10k on your tax return without messing with your benefits.

If you spread the word, maybe we can get those low paying positions filled.

 

[WaltHer]

So your only economic analysis skill is copy/paste?

Does anyone pay for your analysis, or are you one of those who pretends to know what they're talking about because they read something on the internet?

This thread, as well as a couple others on here, have begun to read as pretty masturbatory in nature. By this time you should have either formed an opinion,:things are f'd- prepare for doomsday-geddon, or things are fine- green colored glasses, please.
Last week, there was an article posted about,"one week left [till The END"]. Same shit JWR has been saying for at least 15 years on Survivalblog...Yet, here we are, virtually unchanged since last week...
At some point, these posts seem like people's attempt to justify their behaviors in the absence of real problems, not as resources to help others make informed decisions. In sum, it feels pretty similar to Elizabeth Claire Profitn and the Church Universal and Triumphant [ https://www.cdamm.org/articles/cut-tsl ]
Like some people need to justify their choices and hope for a worst-case-scenario so they can finally have that "I told you so" moment. I know some people need things to work out for themselves. I hope it all works out for us. Get busy living, or get busy dying.

 

[308pirate]

all those CRAPPY low paying jobs that nobody wants, because you CAN'T make a living.
Besides, with Gov benefits, it pays to work 1 PT job; that's all you need to qualify (and mom's basement)

Such as?

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Drought, low water levels halt barge traffic on Mississippi River

The lowest water levels in the Mississippi River in a decade, caused by a severe Midwest drought, have closed the vital channel to barge traffic at a crucial time of the year for the transport of crops from the nation's heartland.

ksltv.com

 

[babyguppy]

Such as?

server...amazon fulfillment, list goes on.

 

[E. Bryant]

This thread, as well as a couple others on here, have begun to read as pretty masturbatory in nature. By this time you should have either formed an opinion,:things are f'd- prepare for doomsday-geddon, or things are fine- green colored glasses, please.
Last week, there was an article posted about,"one week left [till The END"]. Same shit JWR has been saying for at least 15 years on Survivalblog...Yet, here we are, virtually unchanged since last week...
At some point, these posts seem like people's attempt to justify their behaviors in the absence of real problems, not as resources to help others make informed decisions. In sum, it feels pretty similar to Elizabeth Claire Profitn and the Church Universal and Triumphant [ https://www.cdamm.org/articles/cut-tsl ]
Like some people need to justify their choices and hope for a worst-case-scenario so they can finally have that "I told you so" moment. I know some people need things to work out for themselves. I hope it all works out for us. Get busy living, or get busy dying.

I'll fully admit to carrying a bad case of Confirmation Bias when it comes to this topic, and have repeatedly admitted so.

That being said, I also recall sitting in executive-level meetings back in summer 2008 warning that a massive shit storm was forming on the horizon, and then a few months later being shunned as a pariah when reality began delivering daily beatings with a clue-by-four. So I'm definitely walking around with a bit of a chip on my shoulder.

Fixing the problem begins with identifying it.

All that being said, anyone who is looking at the current situation and pulling their best Chip Diller "Remain calm - all is well" impression is disconnected from reality and suffering from his own logical fallacies.

This video makes several good points:



Two of my takeaways are: 1) just because something hasn't happened in our lifetime doesn't mean that it will never happen again; and 2) these big changes don't necessarily have intrinsic qualities (that is, they are neither "good" nor "bad").

 

[lariat]

This thread, as well as a couple others on here, have begun to read as pretty masturbatory in nature. By this time you should have either formed an opinion,:things are f'd- prepare for doomsday-geddon, or things are fine- green colored glasses, please.
Last week, there was an article posted about,"one week left [till The END"]. Same shit JWR has been saying for at least 15 years on Survivalblog...Yet, here we are, virtually unchanged since last week...
At some point, these posts seem like people's attempt to justify their behaviors in the absence of real problems, not as resources to help others make informed decisions. In sum, it feels pretty similar to Elizabeth Claire Profitn and the Church Universal and Triumphant [ https://www.cdamm.org/articles/cut-tsl ]
Like some people need to justify their choices and hope for a worst-case-scenario so they can finally have that "I told you so" moment. I know some people need things to work out for themselves. I hope it all works out for us. Get busy living, or get busy dying.

Some of the comments are runnecessary and attention seeking. But it’s a free country so I just scroll past without reading them. That being said, the thread can be highly informative for the news articles.

I remember the following: the S&L crisis and crash in the 80s, the 90s recession, lctm, the dotcom bust the Great Recession Lehman and the day oil went negative in the market. That doesn’t even include other countries. I see what is going on today and it has parallels to some things in our recent past. But this thing is on a whole different level. I too was shunned for earning everyone from 2005-2008. Nobody listened and afterward everyone that lost money were angry and wouldn’t speak to mr for a long while. Such is life.

 

[E. Bryant]

It's rather shocking that American workers don't want to work ever-increasing hours for the same or less money (and no security) while management and ownership extract the entire benefits of productivity gains.

Some better sharing of risk and reward over the past forty years sure would be helpful right now, but the people that pocketed those gains have mostly moved onto retirement and are satisfied watching the world burn.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Crude oil prices are set to finish the week on a high note, with WTI rising more than $10 per barrel this week as OPEC+ agreed to slash its production targets for November by 2 million barrels per day.
________
Overnight, AMD stunned investors when it preannounced shockingly bad revenue and margin numbers, making a mockery of its own guidance from August, and signaling that between then and now – i.e., September – the global economy fell off a cliff.

Crude Oil Prices Set To Finish Week With Major Gain | OilPrice.com

Crude oil prices are set to finish the week on a high note, with WTI rising more than $10 per barrel this week as OPEC+ agreed to slash its production targets for November by 2 million barrels per day

oilprice.com

Things Are Starting To Move Fast: FedEx Tumbles After Preannouncing Dismal Results For 2nd Time In 2 Weeks - American Partisan

Original article here. Things are starting to move fast. Overnight, […]

www.americanpartisan.org

 

[NoDopes]

BIDEN ECONOMY: Transpacific Shipping Drops 75% During Peak Season Due to Lack of US Demand

Transpacific shipping is way down thanks to the Biden economy. This is a symptom of the policies that Biden put in place to destroy the US economy. The Biden economy is imploding. Now, only months before the holidays, transpacific shipping is down roughly 75% from 2021. The Wall Street...

www.thegatewaypundit.com

 

[E. Bryant]

It's not just ocean freight volume that's dropping:

Air cargo peak season evaporates on low demand, higher capacity

Air cargo professionals figured business would take off after the summer lull. Turbulent economic conditions and pre-buying have prevented that so far.

www.freightwaves.com

Hanging all the blame for this on Biden glosses over the actual root causes, but I'm sure it generates more clicks for Joe Hoft.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

It's not just ocean freight volume that's dropping:

Air cargo peak season evaporates on low demand, higher capacity

Air cargo professionals figured business would take off after the summer lull. Turbulent economic conditions and pre-buying have prevented that so far.

www.freightwaves.com

Hanging all the blame for this on Biden glosses over the actual root causes, but I'm sure it generates more clicks for Joe Hoft.

While doing my one man survey, I see that the parking lots of Target, Walmart and a few more are full of CONEX shipping containers. I'm guessing they contain Holiday items and possible some spring time clothing.... With so much uncertainty in the world, it was prudent to get the stock to each store before the next big shipping fiasco materializes.

 

[E. Bryant]

While doing my one man survey, I see that the parking lots of Target, Walmart and a few more are full of CONEX shipping containers. I'm guessing they contain Holiday items and possible some spring time clothing.... With so much uncertainty in the world, it was prudent to get the stock to each store before the next big shipping fiasco materializes.

I guarantee that most of those storage containers are chock full of Chinese garbage for the holidays. The inventory build across the country is potentially setting us up for blowout sales on shit nobody needs (or can afford, given current levels of consumer debt). Kinda amusing to watch from a distance, but it's not at all healthy for the economy.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

22% of millennials are going into debt from dating: 'Everything is getting more expensive'

About 22% of millennials and 19% of Gen Zers have dating-related debt, according to an analysis by Lendingtree. Here's how making a budget can help.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

White-collar office workers appear to be feeling the brunt of the Fed’s actions: The financial and business sector saw a large decline in employment last month. Legal and advertising services also experienced drops. Service and construction workers, meanwhile, are still thriving.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/10/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

 

[E. Bryant]

White-collar office workers appear to be feeling the brunt of the Fed’s actions: The financial and business sector saw a large decline in employment last month. Legal and advertising services also experienced drops. Service and construction workers, meanwhile, are still thriving.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/10/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

Yeah, let's see how much longer those service and construction workings keep thriving once all those laid-off white collar workers stop buying $7 coffees and fancy houses.

I'd love to see a recession where the poor don't get fucked, but it ain't gonna happen.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Yeah, let's see how much longer those service and construction workings keep thriving once all those laid-off white collar workers stop buying $7 coffees and fancy houses.

I'd love to see a recession where the poor don't get fucked, but it ain't gonna happen.

Not hearing much about the poor's.... I think the dole has them in a comfortable position to ride this one out.
It's that segment of "working poor's" who are too proud to get on the dole that will suffer.

 

[RUTGERS95]

Yeah, let's see how much longer those service and construction workings keep thriving once all those laid-off white collar workers stop buying $7 coffees and fancy houses.

I'd love to see a recession where the poor don't get fucked, but it ain't gonna happen.

Exactly. Hit the higher tax payer and it trickles down

 

[Jsp556]

Drought, low water levels halt barge traffic on Mississippi River

The lowest water levels in the Mississippi River in a decade, caused by a severe Midwest drought, have closed the vital channel to barge traffic at a crucial time of the year for the transport of crops from the nation's heartland.

ksltv.com

Saw this and asked a friend who works on tugs and barges. Here’s his take.

A lot of these stories are bullshit. I keep seeing a story about a General Mills plant destroyed by a plane crash. Yeah a plane crashed on the property. The plant was not damaged.

I’ll try to copy and paste the video. It shows plenty of traffic.

 

[E. Bryant]

ARK's open letter to the Fed:

ARK Extends An Open Letter To The Fed

Could it be that the unprecedented 13-fold increase in interest rates during the last six months has raised the risks of a deflationary bust?

ark-invest.com

It can best be summarized as "please stop hiking rates because we don't know how to make money without central banks inflating everything-bubbles".

 

[Hobo Hilton]

ARK's open letter to the Fed:

ARK Extends An Open Letter To The Fed

Could it be that the unprecedented 13-fold increase in interest rates during the last six months has raised the risks of a deflationary bust?

ark-invest.com

It can best be summarized as "please stop hiking rates because we don't know how to make money without central banks inflating everything-bubbles".

I would imagine Cathie Wood is well hedged....

 

[E. Bryant]

I would imagine Cathie Wood is well hedged....

Cathie Wood herself is certainly well-hedged. Has she done the same for her clients?

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Cathie Wood herself is certainly well-hedged. Has she done the same for her clients?

Good question. The future will tell.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The nation should expect more than this from its Treasury secretary, and far more from someone as intelligent, competent and well-read as Janet Yellen. Sadly, she is living proof that when financial aptitude is made subservient to ideology, even the talented fall from grace, and no amount of Orwellian word games can offer redemption.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's fall: Not unlike the economy's

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has been reduced to playing Orwellian word games for the Biden administration on inflation, the state of the economy, and expansion of the IRS.

www.foxbusiness.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Jerome Powell can take credit for "Recession-2023" after sitting on his hands for months and not taking action. Going to be a lot of American's using up all their resources to stay afloat financially if this goes on another year.
________
“The worst is yet to come, and for many people 2023 will feel like a recession,” the report said, echoing warnings from the United Nations, the World Bank and many global CEOs.

IMF cuts global growth forecast for next year, warns ‘the worst is yet to come’

IMF downgrades its growth estimate for 2023 and warns ‘the worst is yet to come’ with many people set to experience recession-like conditions.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Biden says he doesn't think there will be a recession, if so it will be 'very slight'

President Joe Biden said he doesn't believe there will be a recession in the near future and if there is, he expects it to be a "slight" economic dip.

www.cnbc.com

 

[NoDopes]

Biden says he doesn't think there will be a recession, if so it will be 'very slight'

President Joe Biden said he doesn't believe there will be a recession in the near future and if there is, he expects it to be a "slight" economic dip.

www.cnbc.com

Most secure election in history.
Words no longer have meaning.