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Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024
- Thread starter Hobo Hilton
- Start date
Interesting read for a Saturday morning, the first day of the last quarter. Sensing a bit of panic from the writer.
________
Markets entered a perilous new phase in the past week,..... “The Fed is breaking things,”...... Bank of England was forced to prop up the market...
... two broad categories of concern right now... The Fed is “learning in real time”
www.cnbc.com
________
Markets entered a perilous new phase in the past week,..... “The Fed is breaking things,”...... Bank of England was forced to prop up the market...
... two broad categories of concern right now... The Fed is “learning in real time”
‘The Fed is breaking things’ – Here’s what has Wall Street on edge as risks rise around the world
The Fed's efforts to tame inflation are rippling around the world, with potentially unforeseen consequences for investors.
World Container Index
Our detailed assessment for Thursday, 29 September 2022
- The composite index decreased by 10% this week, the 31st consecutive weekly decrease, and has dropped by 61% when compared with the same week last year.
- The latest Drewry WCI composite index of $4,014 per 40-foot container is now 61% below the peak of $10,377 reached in September 2021, but it remains 8% higher than the 5-year average of $3,714.
- The average composite index for the year-to-date is $7,597 per 40ft container, which is $3,884 higher than the five-year average ($3,714 mentioned above).
World Container Index - 02 Feb
02 Feb 2023: Drewry’s World Container Index decreased by 1% to $2,033.70 per 40ft container this week. Read the detailed assessment:
It seems the "Blame Game" has shifted from Putin to the USD... One thing for sure there is very little "Logic" in the blame Game.
www.mining.com
Commodities tumble with surging dollar hitting raw materials
Gold slid to the lowest in more than two years as tighter Fed policy and Europe’s worsening energy crisis has pushed up the US currency.
www.mining.com
Saw this comment but can't find any articles.
"In Germany and Austria, the taxation of silver coins was changed overnight. On average, the ounce was 3 euros more expensive. The system wobbles enormously."
"In Germany and Austria, the taxation of silver coins was changed overnight. On average, the ounce was 3 euros more expensive. The system wobbles enormously."
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Been that way a long time. Nothing has changed except the perception of American's.
Gold coins were first struck on the order of King Croesus of Lydia (an area that is now part of Turkey), around 550 BC. They circulated as currency in many countries before the introduction of paper money.
Money and Gold | World Gold Council
Money and gold have been related for thousands of years with the first gold coin minted around 700BC. Explore the history of gold as money here.
keep your gold; ammo, rice, butter and water will be worth far more
If shtf, I won’t trade one round of ammunition. Only an idiot would do that.
I deal in a lot of "used" mechanical stuff"... Even an 8 ounce can of "3 in 1 oil" could become priceless in the right situation. Amazing how a large piece of equipment that has been stored in a damp building will have some minor part that is stuck and just needs a few drops of oil.
Could be fake news. IMO stuff like this will start appearing in news headlines claiming "out of nowhere XYZ has started rapid decline". Guessing if people knew in advance they would be yanking money out of "investments".
The good news is that just about any oil works for that task, especially if mixed with a bit of solvent (like kerosene). Where people are going to have a bad day is when they learn just how much technical wizardry is involved with making the modern world turn.
Can 1 oz silver bars be used as brake pads, or am I going to have a bad day if I find myself in that situation?
Pretty sure that it's possible to lay in enough 22LR that one could trade away 90% of the supply for goods and services and still have enough for generations of subsistence hunting. The primary downside is weight, so nomads need not apply.
I feel pretty good right now relative to a lot of other schmucks, but failure to stick to my convictions (which have taken a beating over the past few years) resulted in more downside in parts of my portfolio than would have occurred with better execution. Put another way, I got caught straddling the fence. Not a big deal and I'm hoping to make it up when the market rebounds, because there will be a lot of normies sitting on the sidelines by the time that happens.
If there wasn't a looming recession, it would likely already be time to dip a couple toes back into the water. But I think doing so at this moment would result in losing those little piggies to alligator bites. Best to exercise some patience, wait to see how the macro situation evolves (we all know that it's bad, but how bad and where remains to be seen), and then see if/when the Fed capitulates.
There are several small countries that are more "nimble" than America. Many of them are too small for the Blackstone's of the financial world to even think of even investing in them. For a small player there will be some investment opportunities. I liken America's situation to the man in the story below. Everyone around him, similar to small countries, survived. He got himself into a bad situation, just as the United States has.
Man drowns in Spring Meadow Lake after getting stuck in mud
A man drowned at Spring Meadow Lake on the west side of Helena Wednesday afternoon according to the Lewis and Clark County Sheriff’s Office.
www.ktvh.com
Martin Armstrong says nothing is going to get better by the end of 2022, and he is still forecasting “chaos” coming in 2023.
www.zerohedge.com
ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
I think now is a good time to buy bond funds as the flight to quality will be great, despite the FED actionsMartin Armstrong says nothing is going to get better by the end of 2022, and he is still forecasting “chaos” coming in 2023.
ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
I’m not really sure what to call what we are experiencing
Lots of help wanted signs, lots of folks buying shit, but negative GDP and inflation no doubt
Sadly if the government wouldn’t have fucked the world with hysterically overreacting to the wuhan engineered virus, none of this would be happening
Lots of help wanted signs, lots of folks buying shit, but negative GDP and inflation no doubt
Sadly if the government wouldn’t have fucked the world with hysterically overreacting to the wuhan engineered virus, none of this would be happening
Martin Armstrong says nothing is going to get better by the end of 2022, and he is still forecasting “chaos” coming in 2023.
ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
Has zerohedge ever had a good news article?
If by good you mean positive, as in "everything is looking great! buy more TSLA", then no, no they haven't.
Might be a good time to have some fear.
Some say "Everything is good"... "Could not be better"....
IDK
Zero Hedge - Wikipedia
Things ain’t perfect, never will be
But look at how pathetic people are now, I mean after covid everyone is a germphobe, post 9/11 everyone must be a terrorist, etc etc
Folks are damn near scared of their own farts
Always work on making things better, no doubt, but the sky ain’t always falling, some peeps needs to learn the fine art of chill
True... I find myself spending more time on my homestead rather than going to big gatherings. Gettin' more difficult to find "like minded" individuals. I worked on firewood today and my garden is about done for the season. Not that I'm scared but two things are high on my priority list is to have a full belly and stay warm this winter. After that I'll just take each day in stride.
Attachments
The Germans were the first to know back in 2008.. I think it was Deutsch Bank that hedged its risks before the rest did.
Edit to add:
Classic scene. In this scene the unspoken decision has already been made by the BOD and shareholders and Jeremy Iron's character has been told his left and right limits. Wish they had that scene in here and traced how it came to be.
Not sure these are accurate numbers... Government generated:
The level of job openings plunged by more than a million in August, providing a potential early sign that the massive U.S. labor gap is beginning to close.
Available positions totaled 10.05 million for the month, a 10% drop from the 11.17 million reported in July, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics release Tuesday. That was also well below the 11.1 million FactSet estimate.
www.cnbc.com
The level of job openings plunged by more than a million in August, providing a potential early sign that the massive U.S. labor gap is beginning to close.
Available positions totaled 10.05 million for the month, a 10% drop from the 11.17 million reported in July, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics release Tuesday. That was also well below the 11.1 million FactSet estimate.
Job openings plunged by more than 1.1 million in August
Available positions totaled 10.05 million for the month, a 10% drop from the 11.17 million reported in July.
just the beginning as more openings are being shut as inventories build up.
Been watching prices on about 40 different used 2500 Cummins. Just today they almost all dropped 2-3k.
In the financial world "Inventory" has become the focus. Similar to a game of musical chairs. Wonderful to have a bunch of widgets on the shelf that are selling at cost plus 50%..... Until the consumer stops buying them. When the music stops the inventory just sits on the shelf. The only choice for the seller is to lower the price, clear out inventory and not get stuck with widgets that no one needs or can afford.
Cash will be King.
Read the tea leaves... You may get a have opinion than the "Talking Heads"....
Has inflation been used to boost the numbers ?
www.marketwatch.com
Has inflation been used to boost the numbers ?
GDP set to turn positive again due to shrinking U.S. trade deficit and end 'rule-of-thumb' recession
The trade deficit fell in August to a 15-month low of $67.4 billion, paving the way for a resumption of growth in U.S. gross domestic product in the third...
www.marketwatch.com
Disappointment.... Hmmmm
_____________
President Joe Biden "is disappointed by the shortsighted decision by OPEC+ to cut production quotas while the global economy is dealing with the continued negative impact of Putin's invasion of Ukraine," said a White House statement on Wednesday from National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and top economic adviser Brian Deese. "In light of today's action, the Biden Administration will also consult with Congress on additional tools and authorities to reduce OPEC's control over energy prices," the statement also said. In addition, the statement said Biden will continue to direct Strategic Petroleum Reserves releases "as appropriate to protect American consumers and promote energy security," and he is directing the Energy Department's secretary to "explore any additional responsible actions to continue increasing domestic production in the immediate term."
________________
Disappointment is what American's feel when they fuel up to go to work.
www.marketwatch.com
_____________
President Joe Biden "is disappointed by the shortsighted decision by OPEC+ to cut production quotas while the global economy is dealing with the continued negative impact of Putin's invasion of Ukraine," said a White House statement on Wednesday from National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and top economic adviser Brian Deese. "In light of today's action, the Biden Administration will also consult with Congress on additional tools and authorities to reduce OPEC's control over energy prices," the statement also said. In addition, the statement said Biden will continue to direct Strategic Petroleum Reserves releases "as appropriate to protect American consumers and promote energy security," and he is directing the Energy Department's secretary to "explore any additional responsible actions to continue increasing domestic production in the immediate term."
________________
Disappointment is what American's feel when they fuel up to go to work.
Biden 'disappointed' by OPEC+ production cut, White House says
President Joe Biden "is disappointed by the shortsighted decision by OPEC+ to cut production quotas while the global economy is dealing with the continued...
www.marketwatch.com
Fed trying to play up the numbers UP before election.Read the tea leaves... You may get a have opinion than the "Talking Heads"....
Has inflation been used to boost the numbers ?
GDP set to turn positive again due to shrinking U.S. trade deficit and end 'rule-of-thumb' recession
The trade deficit fell in August to a 15-month low of $67.4 billion, paving the way for a resumption of growth in U.S. gross domestic product in the third...
"The “third” estimate of GDP released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the decrease in real GDP was also 0.6 percent." link
Official Q3 release is Oct 27 link
Edit - Fed might release positive news, but expect a 'readjustment' after the election. RE - Obama vs POS Mitten in debate. Obama touted how Unemployment went down, turns out the GOV forgot to add in CA. After the fact, unemployment was higher than reported. People who spoke out on initial release were crusified by media.
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It has started. We will see a lot more of this:
Were moving and have lots of free stuff under
carport on side of house. Please don't take
garage door or opener or fence boards. Thanks.
Were moving and have lots of free stuff under
carport on side of house. Please don't take
garage door or opener or fence boards. Thanks.
Free stuff, moving and it's all free - free stuff
Were moving and have lots of free stuff under carport on side of house. Please don't take garage door or opener or fence boards. Thanks. Just come and take what you like. No need to come to door....
missoula.craigslist.org
could be a pissed EX; trying to screw the guy one more time with a false advertisementIt has started. We will see a lot more of this:
Were moving and have lots of free stuff under
carport on side of house. Please don't take
garage door or opener or fence boards. Thanks.
Free stuff, moving and it's all free - free stuff
Were moving and have lots of free stuff under carport on side of house. Please don't take garage door or opener or fence boards. Thanks. Just come and take what you like. No need to come to door....missoula.craigslist.org
There is significant cost-saving opportunity for complex supply chains by optimizing inventory levels, positively impacting inventory turnover, for every part in the system. It is tempting to focus on avoiding shortages because of how chaotic and costly they are, but improvement in the long term requires a deep dive into improving inventory turnover, which means you need to reduce inventory levels and costs across the board.
One thing for sure about the future. You will not get what you want, when you want it at an affordable price.
www.oann.com
One thing for sure about the future. You will not get what you want, when you want it at an affordable price.
Honda to cut car output at two Japanese plants in October
TOKYO (Reuters) - Honda Motor Co said on Thursday it would reduce car output by up to 40% at two Japanese plants for the rest of October from its earlier plans, as the company battles
www.oann.com
Amazon said it’s hiring full-time, seasonal and part-time workers who can pick, pack, store and ship items in its warehouses.
pick, pack, store and ship........ pick, pack, store and ship........... pick, pack, store and ship
www.cnbc.com
pick, pack, store and ship........ pick, pack, store and ship........... pick, pack, store and ship
Amazon plans to hire 150,000 workers for the holidays
The hiring ramp comes ahead of Amazon's "Prime Early Access Sale" next week.
The IMF has lowered its global growth forecast for 2022 and 2023 to 3.2% and 2.9%, respectively, a global recession may be imminent. The World Economic Forum's Chief Economists Outlook for September 2022 surveyed economic leaders from around the world to collect insights on their reading of the global economic situation. The outlook is grim, with 73% of respondents believing that a global recession is either somewhat likely or extremely likely.
Stagflation
www.cnbc.com
Wharton's Jeremy Siegel says today's biggest threat isn't inflation — it's recession
Siegel said he was one of the first to warn of the Fed's "inflationary policies" in 2020 and 2021, but "the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction."
Hang on to your HATS.. It's double speak time.
Low Unemployment -
www.breitbart.com
High jobless claims
www.breitbart.com
Labor Participation chart says what?
www.macrotrends.net
Low Unemployment -
The U.S. Economy Added 263,000 Jobs in September, Unemployment Rate Fell to 3.5%
Economists had expected the economy to add 250,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.7 percent. | Economy
www.breitbart.com
High jobless claims
New U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims in Unexpected Surge
The number of Americans filing fresh claims for jobless benefits jumped by the most in four months last week.
www.breitbart.com
U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate 1991-2024
Labor force participation rate for ages 15-24 is the proportion of the population ages 15-24 that is economically active: all people who supply labor for the production of goods and services during a specified period.
www.macrotrends.net
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