Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024

[E. Bryant]

The link is to an "Opinion" article. All valid considerations. The one thing the American's can't seem to accept if the FED Reserve is now just one more fish in a big ocean. Hundreds of opinions on what the FED should do. Probably the best thing for middle class American's is for the FED to simply disappear.... Poof ! .... Wake up tomorrow morning the there is no FED Reserve. Allow the World Markets to get the human race out of this mess.
JMHO

The Federal Reserve is in an impossible position, and now has yet another complicating factor

The Fed wants to avoid the perception of politics playing a role in its policy. So how does it handle two rate decisions before the November elections?

www.marketwatch.com

There was a crazy old guy who ran for president a few times on a platform that included "End The Fed", but too many Republicans didn't like him because he didn't want to spy on Americans or bomb enough foreign countries or reduce taxes in precisely the right way to keep rich people happy. So we didn't get this guy as president, despite the fact that hindsight has proven correct virtually every one of his core positions. What a wasted opportunity.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Ford and GM keep blaming these "one-off" quarterly hiccups on inventory carrying costs, but by my calcs, it's costing them "only" ~$125 million/quarter to finance that WIP. Ford is talking about a hit of $1 billion this quarter. What accounts for the rest? If it's concessions that are being made to suppliers to deal with inflation, then this isn't going to magically reverse by Q4.

This should be interesting to watch over the coming weeks. The Q3 earnings call should be a few days before Halloween, which might be appropriate timing.

I pulled one line from your thoughts.
If it's concessions that are being made to suppliers to deal with inflation, then this isn't going to magically reverse by Q4.

What is scaring the big fund managers is this = What IF this becomes the norm?

 

[E. Bryant]

I pulled one line from your thoughts.
If it's concessions that are being made to suppliers to deal with inflation, then this isn't going to magically reverse by Q4.

What is scaring the big fund managers is this = What IF this becomes the norm?

Then combine the increased input costs with a loss of pricing power caused by the double-whammy of higher interest rates and a general economic slowdown. That takes $12 billion/year down to $0 pretty quickly.

 

[bluegrasspicker]

There was a crazy old guy who ran for president a few times on a platform that included "End The Fed", but too many Republicans didn't like him because he didn't want to spy on Americans or bomb enough foreign countries or reduce taxes in precisely the right way to keep rich people happy. So we didn't get this guy as president, despite the fact that hindsight has proven correct virtually every one of his core positions. What a wasted opportunity.

Are you talking about the guy who was damned and called crazy because he was taking votes away from the MIC-supporting dude that the media told everyone to vote for? The guy who thought that everyone should be free do what they wanted so long as it didn't negatively affect others?

Maybe sometimes when solutions are obvious, we don't see them. I truly don't know. That he wasn't embraced is a mystery to me, and it somewhat pisses on my hopes that we can move forward out of this mess.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/20/investing/earnings-economy-corporate-america-recession/index.html

 

[E. Bryant]

Are you talking about the guy who was damned and called crazy because he was taking votes away from the MIC-supporting dude that the media told everyone to vote for? The guy who thought that everyone should be free do what they wanted so long as it didn't negatively affect others?

Maybe sometimes when solutions are obvious, we don't see them. I truly don't know. That he wasn't embraced is a mystery to me, and it somewhat pisses on my hopes that we can move forward out of this mess.

Yes, we're talking about the same guy, and yes, the fact that conservative voters rejected him in favor of guys like McCain and Romney (who those same voters now shit on without any self-reflection of their own role in elevating those men) gives me very little hope for the future.

 

[E. Bryant]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/20/investing/earnings-economy-corporate-america-recession/index.html

Cue the talking heads saying "the odds of an earning recession are already priced into the market" just before things really nose over into a free fall.

 

[Bigfatcock]

Cue the talking heads saying "the odds of an earning recession are already priced into the market" just before things really nose over into a free fall.

I’ve been saying for awhile that all bullish analysts are wrong or lying. They are so removed from mainstream America, that they have no clue.

It’s still taking longer than I expected, but $5 gas definitely did what I expected it to do and there is no stopping consequences now.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

‘Inflation is a terrible thing,” Icahn says, pointing to how it led to the downfall of the Roman Empire. ‘You can’t cure it.’​

Icahn blamed federal outlays for the country’s current fiscal woes. “”We printed up too much money, and just thought the party would never end. And the party’s over,” he said.

Carl Icahn to investors: 'The worst is yet to come'

The billionaire investor also has some suggestions for where people should invest now.

www.marketwatch.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

No soft landing in any of the forecast from the experts.
I think the motor has died and the landing will be "Dead Stick".. FED will glide as long as possible while calling for help.
Steelcase plans job cuts on 'lower-than-expected return-to-office trends'

The Fed's forecast for rising unemployment signals recession ahead. Or does it?

The U.S. has never vanquished high inflation without a major increase in layoffs and unemployment, but the Federal Reserve is hoping to pull it off.

www.marketwatch.com

 

[NoDopes]

Walmart Seasonal Hiring Plans Down 75% vs Last Year

Walmart plans to hire 40,000 employees for the upcoming holidays, a 75% drop from the retailer’s 150,000-worker target from last year.

www.pymnts.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Fed will tolerate a recession, and 5 other things we learned from Powell's presser

The Fed will tolerate a recession and x other things we learned from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference on Wednesday.

www.marketwatch.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Worldwide

Bank of England hikes by 50 basis points, says UK may already be in recession

The Bank of England voted to raise its base rate to 2.25% from 1.75% Thursday, lower than the 0.75 percentage point rise that had been expected by many traders.

www.cnbc.com

Swiss National Bank exits negative rates era with 0.75% hike

Switzerland exited the era of negative interest rates on Thursday when its central bank joined others around the world in tightening monetary policy more aggressively to combat resurgent inflation.

www.reuters.com

Hong Kong c.bank raises rate, HSBC and Standard Chartered follow

Hong Kong on Thursday raised its base rate by 75 basis points (bps) to 3.5%, prompting the largest commercial banks operating in the territory, including HSBC , to increase their best lending rates.

www.reuters.com

U.S. mortgage interest rates reach 6.25%, highest level since October 2008

The average interest rate on the most popular U.S. home loan climbed to its highest level since October 2008, Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) data showed on Wednesday.

www.reuters.com

https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-09-22/snb-to-use-snb-bills-and-repo-transactions-to-absorb-liquidity-maechler

 

[KZP]

Spain plans temporary tax on big fortunes for two years

The Spanish government wants to slap a temporary tax on the wealthiest 1% of the country's population starting next year amid soaring inflation, Budget Minister Maria Jesus Montero said on Thursday.

www.reuters.com

 

[RUTGERS95]

funny, it's never cut back on spending but tax more

 

[babyguppy]

Spain plans temporary tax on big fortunes for two years

The Spanish government wants to slap a temporary tax on the wealthiest 1% of the country's population starting next year amid soaring inflation, Budget Minister Maria Jesus Montero said on Thursday.

www.reuters.com

ahhh, do you think spain will 'remove' the 'temp tax'?

Temporary Taxes That Never Die: Short Term Levies Have Lived to Hit Taxpayers - AAF

When city officials in the nation’s Capitol sought to coax the struggling Montreal Expos to Washington, D.C., a free (taxpayer-funded) stadium was an enticing carrot for a franchise that had literally been playing in a crumbling structure1. Instead of letting billionaire owners and millionaire...

www.americanactionforum.org

 

[KZP]

 

[E. Bryant]

So is that $600k house still worth $600k, or is it now only worth $392k? We'll find out soon enough, but I know where I'm placing my bet...

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Charging more for less.... No let up with inflation:
FedEx (FDX) – FedEx remains on watch this morning after announcing a 6.9% increase in shipping rates and plans to cut another $4 billion in annual costs. FedEx fell 3.2% in the premarket.

 

[E. Bryant]

Annual shipping rate increases aren't really anything new, and the real joy are the various surcharges.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Annual shipping rate increases aren't really anything new, and the real joy are the various surcharges.

You have just described what is becoming the "Norm". American's accepting rate increases is nothing more than inflation... Paying more and getting less. As discussed, this is a cycle that can not go on much longer. Wages are not keeping up with inflation.. Worldwide
___________________________________
What is the average wage increase in 2022?


New data released by Salary.com, a software company that provides compensation data and analytics, found that the median pay increase of 4% is continuing an upward trend that began in 2022. Sep 8, 2022

Say goodbye to the 3% raise and hello to 4% or more

The annual pay raise for workers in the U.S. continues to climb, according to Salary.com.

fortune.com

 

[KZP]

 

[gigamortis]

Let's see if the county property tax assessor will ever reduce the tax bill when those sky high selling prices deflate back down to reality.......

 

[KZP]

Not sure if banks are really going to collapse, but stuff is moving fast. I suggest getting some cash out before other people get the same idea.

 

[KZP]

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Have a sip of Koolaid as you learn more about Raphael Bostic, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

Raphael Bostic is married to Jeffrey Taylor. Bostic is the first African-American and first openly gay person selected to lead a regional Federal Reserve bank. He has no children with his husband. Bostic was named as a potential candidate for Secretary of the Treasury.
In 2020, Bostic wrote an essay for the FRB Atlanta entitled, "A Moral and Economic Imperative to End Racism."[7] In it he wrote that systematic racism drags on the economy.[

Atlanta Fed President Bostic expects job losses but says there’s a really good chance to get to 2% inflation without killing the economy

Raphael Bostic, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, signaled optimism for the Fed's policies to temper inflation.

www.cnbc.com

 

[lariat]

Have a sip of Koolaid as you learn more about Raphael Bostic, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
View attachment 7963389
Raphael Bostic is married to Jeffrey Taylor. Bostic is the first African-American and first openly gay person selected to lead a regional Federal Reserve bank. He has no children with his husband. Bostic was named as a potential candidate for Secretary of the Treasury.
In 2020, Bostic wrote an essay for the FRB Atlanta entitled, "A Moral and Economic Imperative to End Racism."[7] In it he wrote that systematic racism drags on the economy.[

Atlanta Fed President Bostic expects job losses but says there’s a really good chance to get to 2% inflation without killing the economy

Raphael Bostic, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, signaled optimism for the Fed's policies to temper inflation.

www.cnbc.com

Sure it does. But the question is WHO is engaging in racism.

If we as a society are pushing for diversity instead of ability that hurts the economy through reduced GDP. Additionally, it hurts all communities being favored as they are allowed to market their otherwise poor skill sets and get jobs that they have no business having. Not imposing the standards of skills creates a situation where the undeveloped communities - regardless of race- do not have to improve themselves or their children. That is the real problem. It contributes to the decline of America through standards that are much closer to third world countries than a country that believes in discipline and aptitude.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

In some of our discussions here, the question arises about how can millions of people simply stop working?
There is no hunger in America. We all understand the unemployment benefits and food stamps. But, what about all the people who don't qualify ? Well, believe it or not the US Government (Dept of Agriculture) is feeding them via the "Food Banks". The numbers are staggering. Once again, it is your tax dollars at work... LOL
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) provides billions of meals to our neighbors facing hunger each year. The USDA purchases food from farmers and delivers the food to food banks for distribution in their communities. The USDA’s programs are among the most reliable food sources for food banks, providing 2.5 billion meals last year.
Just one example.

U.S. Hunger Relief Organization | Feeding America

Feeding America is a nonprofit network of 200 food banks leading the fight against hunger in the United States. Learn how you can help end hunger in America.

www.feedingamerica.org

 

[KZP]

 

[E. Bryant]

Not sure if banks are really going to collapse, but stuff is moving fast. I suggest getting some cash out before other people get the same idea.

So, either investors don't like easy money, or they think CS has made material misstatements about the book value of the business. I'll leave it to the audience to determine which is more likely.

For extra credit, choice whether you think this is limited to CS or that it applies more broadly to the banking segment in general.

 

[KZP]

China directs State Banks to buy stocks

While the rest of the globe was bidding farewell to the deadly pandemic, China continued to impose lockdowns that seemed.......

watcher.guru

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Finally, someone had the back bone to print what we have been discussing for months.
Here is how they plan to force Americans to use up their "resources".
__________
The new aim appears to be for a so-called growth recession: A prolonged period of meager growth and rising unemployment. The pain is sharper and lasts longer than that of a soft landing, but a “growth” recession doesn’t pull the entire economy into contraction the way a proper recession would. It looks like a recession, and feels like a recession, but it isn’t a recession — at least not officially.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/26/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

 

[Hobo Hilton]

History is repeating:

https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-FCIC/pdf/GPO-FCIC.pdf

 

[KZP]

UK’s cost of borrowing on international markets overtakes Greece and Italy

Five-year British government bonds fall dramatically as traders price in higher risk of default on debt

www.theguardian.com

 

[DarnYankeeUSMC]

I am waiting for the Fed to open that tool box of things that @Choid said they have. Cuz all I am seeing is the same ol same ol of raising the interest rate.

 

[DarnYankeeUSMC]

Ohh yeah almost forgot.
Anyone remember the Dod Frank and the stress test for banks? How about banks not lending money to unqualified people to buy housing at inflated prices.
Seems like we're repeating the same shit except it's been remodeled to conform to the new rules. Big difference this time is the $32,000,000,000.00 hanging overhead.
Soft landing? Bwaaaahahaha .

Heard on the radio today that the EU can expect a 173% increase in utilities this winter. Estimate is utilities will be over 30% of the average person's expenses. Add in the USA's blowing up Nord Stream and those numbers may be tame.
Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I am waiting for the Fed to open that tool box of things that @Choid said they have. Cuz all I am seeing is the same ol same ol of raising the interest rate.

You might as well get comfortable. The wait is going to be long and painful to the American middle class..... The lower class will not experience any change in their day to day activities (food stamps, free medical care, stocked food pantries, feed the children programs, free transportation to appointments, free cell phones with government apps, etc).... The upper class and mega rich will be making money off of the fiasco.... The career politicians are focused on getting re-elected.

Plan accordingly.

 

[Bradu]

Ohh yeah almost forgot.
Anyone remember the Dod Frank and the stress test for banks? How about banks not lending money to unqualified people to buy housing at inflated prices.
Seems like we're repeating the same shit except it's been remodeled to conform to the new rules. Big difference this time is the $32,000,000,000.00 hanging overhead.
Soft landing? Bwaaaahahaha .

Heard on the radio today that the EU can expect a 173% increase in utilities this winter. Estimate is utilities will be over 30% of the average person's expenses. Add in the USA's blowing up Nord Stream and those numbers may be tame.
Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice

I can't help but laugh at what banks are willing to loan for people with shit credit or no credit. I guess they know they will be bailed out so why miss the opportunity to take everyone's money.

On a side note, I was completely fucking amazed at how many banks wouldn't lend me money for an 11 year old corvette with an 830 credit score.

 

[DarnYankeeUSMC]

I am wondering when the street swan dive competition will start. Some of those were pretty epic in 08. If the market continues the long slow downward slide instead of a cliff dive it may not be bad. But I have my doubts to the slide happening. There's too many things waiting for the dog pile to kick the economy off the cliff. Nevermind the regime doing everything possible to ensure it.

You might as well get comfortable. The wait is going to be long and painful to the American middle class..... The lower class will not experience any change in their day to day activities (food stamps, free medical care, stocked food pantries, feed the children programs, free transportation to appointments, free cell phones with government apps, etc).... The upper class and mega rich will be making money off of the fiasco.... The career politicians are focused on getting re-elected.

Plan accordingly.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Worldwide

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/27/business/nightcap-uk-pound-mortgage-rates/index.html

 

[DarnYankeeUSMC]

That's part of skirting the rules. They have a work around to make the home loans look good. They have a work around to finance you a $75K new Chevy, Ford, Ram but not a used anything. That's the way it is when the auto union, government and manufacturing are sharing the same pillow at night.
Go to the dealership and see if they won't finance you for 84 months on a new vehicle.

I can't help but laugh at what banks are willing to loan for people with shit credit or no credit. I guess they know they will be bailed out so why miss the opportunity to take everyone's money.

On a side note, I was completely fucking amazed at how many banks wouldn't lend me money for an 11 year old corvette with an 830 credit score.

 

[KZP]

I'm converting a lot of my cash into hard assets as they fall in price. Pretty sure we are going to see Cyprus style bail-ins next year or sooner. Either direct confiscation with loose promises attached or the illusion of you keeping your money, but the setting of minimum balance thresholds for N period of time. Someone has $50k in their savings, but they only let them withdraw down to $45k. Effectively confiscating their money.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

That's part of skirting the rules. They have a work around to make the home loans look good. They have a work around to finance you a $75K new Chevy, Ford, Ram but not a used anything. That's the way it is when the auto union and manufacturing are sharing the same pillow at night.
Go to the dealership and see if they won't finance you for 84 months on a new vehicle.

And then they feed Americans some propaganda...

 

[DarnYankeeUSMC]

Add in the utilities prediction and they are in trouble.
Payback for Brexit?

Worldwide

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/27/business/nightcap-uk-pound-mortgage-rates/index.html

 

[DarnYankeeUSMC]

Sheep gonna sheep

And then they feed Americans some propaganda...

 

[Bradu]

That's part of skirting the rules. They have a work around to make the home loans look good. They have a work around to finance you a $75K new Chevy, Ford, Ram but not a used anything. That's the way it is when the auto union, government and manufacturing are sharing the same pillow at night.
Go to the dealership and see if they won't finance you for 84 months on a new vehicle.

That's no shit. I know people that have shit credit that are driving $40-50k vehicles and paid very little for a down payment. It's going to get bad for a lot of people the way things are going.

 

[DarnYankeeUSMC]

Bankruptcy. The bankruptcy lawyers will have twice as many TV ads as the ambulance chasing lawyers. Those people are upside down on everything and will walk away from all that debt. There's going to be some good deals on used vehicles, boats, the repo housing and the other excesses that people have indulged in.

That's no shit. I know people that have shit credit that are driving $40-50k vehicles and paid very little for a down payment. It's going to get bad for a lot of people the way things are going.

That's if there's anything salvageable of the country when it hits bottom. Like I said earlier.... $32 trillion is a big difference this time around

 

[KZP]

Bankruptcy. The bankruptcy lawyers will have twice as many TV ads as the ambulance chasing lawyers. Those people are upside down on everything and will walk away from all that debt. There's going to be some good deals on used vehicles, boats, the repo housing and the other excesses that people have indulged in.

That's if there's anything salvageable of the country when it hits bottom. Like I said earlier.... $32 trillion is a big difference this time around

Are there enough people to actually go after debtors this time around? I can't imagine a normal process is going to unfold if the majority of loans go under. Especially with the attitude people have in current year. It will be politically classified as racist-homo-trans-pedo-phobic repossession.

The government shut down evictions of deadbeat tenants for the past few years. Seems like they will carry that over to other financed items if tons of people are about to go broke.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Add in the utilities prediction and they are in trouble.
Payback for Brexit?

It keeps getting better,

IMF sounds alarm on UK tax cut plans

The UK government proposals will work at "cross purposes" with the cost-of-living fight, the IMF says.

www.bbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Bullard Leads Fed Speakers Pushing Hikes, Defending Credibility

(Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve officials said they needed to keep raising interest rates to restore price stability, with St. Louis Fed chief James Bullard warning that their credibility was on the line.Most Read from BloombergGermany Suspects Sabotage Hit Russia’s Nord Stream PipelinesPutin’s...

ca.finance.yahoo.com