Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024

[fpgt72]

You can add dollar general, dollar tree and other low end retailers to that list.

I would say the above may be better indicators. I’m my area Walmart looks high end to dollar general.

Dollar General is not cheap, it is handy. For me I can make a 30min one way trip to a "real" grocery store, or 10min to the $ general. But the prices at the $general are always....as in ALWAYS higher and in most cases smaller. If we need something right then we have few options.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Still not seeing anything moving downward in my local, prices still high, and builder's are still booked out two to three years, with excavation and foundations sitting without any more work being done.

However, I'm seeing inventory starting to increase, not only homes, but vacant lot's.

One weird thing, a new listing popped up down the road for me. Half acre lot for $70K, and it's in a hole. Saw a lot of people pulling over and looking at it this last weekend.

We are in agreement. In my AO there is building going on around the "Bedroom Communities". People want to live in Big Sky Country but still must commute an hour (one way) to work in the Big City.
Hoarding vacant lot's is just a cheap way to hedge bet's on when the recession will end and the next boom will start. Buying a lot is a good move for a young couple renting while paying off debts and climbing the corporate ladder.
There are a lot of greedy people thinking their shit is worth a lot more than "market value". In the long run, the market decides value. The old saying of "It's only worth what someone is willing to pay for it" holds true.
Movement of real estate is regional.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Dollar General is not cheap, it is handy. For me I can make a 30min one way trip to a "real" grocery store, or 10min to the $ general. But the prices at the $general are always....as in ALWAYS higher and in most cases smaller. If we need something right then we have few options.

Similar to the Mega Cities where the grocery stores in the ghetto were burned and looted. People still live there and can go to the local market or travel away from the ghetto to shop at a Big Box grocery store.
We are reverting back to "Tribal Customs".

 

[fpgt72]

Unfortunately, the gold option is more viable than most others suggested. I'm very short on storage space, so buying more guns and ammo isn't going to work, as I sold a bunch of stuff when I downsized homes. Didn't realize how much crap I owned until it was time to move it.

I read an article years ago, during the Yugoslavia break up about people trying to survive in all that mess. The article was about a guy that was able to refill disposable lighters and make them work again. When you get down to nothing fire is pretty high on the list of must haves. He and his family did not go hungry or want for fresh water, it was all on a barter system. One thing that had very little value was gold. And it kinda rings true, what is it good for if you are freezing and starving while being shelled in your basement.....not much. He was more interested in a chicken then gold.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I read an article years ago, during the Yugoslavia break up about people trying to survive in all that mess. The article was about a guy that was able to refill disposable lighters and make them work again. When you get down to nothing fire is pretty high on the list of must haves. He and his family did not go hungry or want for fresh water, it was all on a barter system. One thing that had very little value was gold. And it kinda rings true, what is it good for if you are freezing and starving while being shelled in your basement.....not much. He was more interested in a chicken then gold.

Yep, it all goes hand in hand with what a person's perception of the future looks like. No one has all of the bases covered.

 

[Alpine 338]

I read an article years ago, during the Yugoslavia break up about people trying to survive in all that mess. The article was about a guy that was able to refill disposable lighters and make them work again. When you get down to nothing fire is pretty high on the list of must haves. He and his family did not go hungry or want for fresh water, it was all on a barter system. One thing that had very little value was gold. And it kinda rings true, what is it good for if you are freezing and starving while being shelled in your basement.....not much. He was more interested in a chicken then gold.

Yes, totally agree. I read the article also, several times.

My biggest fear where I live is wildfire, outside of that, if we had an economic collapse, invasion, zombie apocalypse, etc, my next biggest fear is starving to death. Winter here lasts a long time, so living off the land can only go so far. Yes, I can trap or shoot the occasional Grouse, but outside of that it's slim pickens. I have some food stores, but then it goes back to how much room you have to store it, and in my case not much.

Outside of that, I'm pretty well set for fire, water, shelter, heat, etc.

The other thing that worries me, we all get older, more fragile. Let's say I break my leg in the middle of Winter, hunting will come to a standstill, and even simple tasks like going outside to get some logs for wood burner would be a daunting task.

 

[fpgt72]

Yes, totally agree. I read the article also, several times.

My biggest fear where I live is wildfire, outside of that, if we had an economic collapse, invasion, zombie apocalypse, etc, my next biggest fear is starving to death. Winter here lasts a long time, so living off the land can only go so far. Yes, I can trap or shoot the occasional Grouse, but outside of that it's slim pickens. I have some food stores, but then it goes back to how much room you have to store it, and in my case not much.

Outside of that, I'm pretty well set for fire, water, shelter, heat, etc.

The other thing that worries me, we all get older, more fragile. Let's say I break my leg in the middle of Winter, hunting will come to a standstill, and even simple tasks like going outside to get some logs for wood burner would be a daunting task.

That is the thing I think about.....not as young as I once was and I don't move all that well. And then we get to the point I will flat die without specific meds.

Had lunch with an 80+yr old yesterday. He was on the Iowa in the 50's. Told him I would trade places with him in a minute. He said it is looking like he might have been born at the right time.

 

[E. Bryant]

Leading indicators blah blah blah:

Target earnings miss by a mile amid 'significant change in consumer shopping patterns'

Target missed the bullseye by a wide margin in the third quarter as the discount retailer felt the brunt of a consumer spending slowdown in more discretionary merchandise.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Leading indicators blah blah blah:

Target earnings miss by a mile amid 'significant change in consumer shopping patterns'

Target missed the bullseye by a wide margin in the third quarter as the discount retailer felt the brunt of a consumer spending slowdown in more discretionary merchandise.

finance.yahoo.com

I guess that CEO was not reading the OP here on Feb 1, 2022.......
Read the CEO's bio's and you will see that Target got exactly what they bargained for... A man who has been a "Rolling Stone" for his entire working career.
Brian Cornell is 64 years old and has been "Socially Promoted" through out the leading corporations of America. A guy who figured out how to make more on the severance package than on a salary....
No wonder the mid terms went the way they did... One more dumb American who did not study history.

Brian Cornell - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Zuul]

There is definitely some rumbling in the tummy of the economy as the precursor of what’s to come. It may be a massive wet shit or just a stinky fart but something is brewing. Unemployment is the missing key to the house of cards, it’s starting but the question is will we see 2008 levels of layoffs.

I work at a hotel/resort, occupancy has been 100%+ since the rice rabies reopening and is forecasted to continue through the first quarter of 2023. $350 a night, airfare to Hawaii, and all the other vacation costs. I’m sure a majority of people put that shit on credit (the “fuck it, let’s have a good time” approach). If/when the pendulum swings the other way a lot of people are not going to be in a good way financially, it has the possibility to make 2008 look like a good time.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Appearing the UK is a bit ahead of America as far as the recession and dealing with the recession.
A very general summarization of Jeremy Hunt's plan: Pay much more in taxes and get much less in Government services (Pay more / Get less)
Sound familiar?

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-63591754

 

[eca7891]

This will indirectly impact us.

https://www.americanpartisan.org/20...essive-discontent-ahead-of-winter-power-cuts/

Imo how Germany goes so does Europe, save England.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Bench mark...

Average 401(k) balances drop below $100,000: Fidelity

Retirement investors at Fidelity have seen the average 401(k) balance slip below $100,000 and the rate of saving has slowed.

www.foxbusiness.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

This will indirectly impact us.

https://www.americanpartisan.org/20...essive-discontent-ahead-of-winter-power-cuts/

Imo how Germany goes so does Europe, save England.

Briefed a few of the "Financial Disaster Plans" for a few different countries. Obviously the people formulating the plans have never, actually lived through or survived a financial disaster. The burden will be placed on the working middle class of every country, worldwide.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Well Jerome.... Time flies.

Household debt surpasses $16.5T in Q3 amid inflation, rising demand: NY Fed report

Total household debt increased by more than $300 billion across credit cards, mortgages and more in the third quarter of 2022, according to the latest New York Fed report. Here's what you can do if you're struggling with debt

www.foxbusiness.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Coming to America

Brits face sharpest fall in living standards on record as government tightens its belt

As the U.K. government announces a £55 billion ($65.5 billion) program of tax hikes and spending cuts, the country faces its sharpest fall in living standards since records began.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Home sales fell for the ninth straight month in October, as higher mortgage rates scared off potential buyers

Home sales weakened for the ninth straight month in October, weighed down by higher mortgage rates.

www.cnbc.com

 

[babyguppy]

Coming to America

Brits face sharpest fall in living standards on record as government tightens its belt

As the U.K. government announces a £55 billion ($65.5 billion) program of tax hikes and spending cuts, the country faces its sharpest fall in living standards since records began.

www.cnbc.com

POLITICS

Brits face sharpest fall in living standards​

Just need more migrants -

Should UK increase immigration to boost economic growth?​

Should UK increase immigration to boost economic growth? POLL

Liz Truss is due to reform migration later this year to help businesses fill job vacancies.

www.express.co.uk

Leaders all over the word seem to suggest that increasing welfare support migrants will increase productivity.

 

[lariat]

POLITICS

Brits face sharpest fall in living standards​

Just need more migrants -

Should UK increase immigration to boost economic growth?​

Should UK increase immigration to boost economic growth? POLL

Liz Truss is due to reform migration later this year to help businesses fill job vacancies.

www.express.co.uk

Leaders all over the word seem to suggest that increasing welfare support migrants will increase productivity.

Which is just stupid. It will actually DECREASE product availability and increase consumption, which will further increase price. They won't work, they have no marketable skills and they will pull in welfare benefits and cause crime to increase.

During the aftermath of the black plague there was an economic boom - fewer people, more resources. You would think that an island nation would be able to figure this out. Unless something else is afoot, like getting rid of the Japhetites, which seems to be a global phenomena.

 

[E. Bryant]

Which is just stupid. It will actually DECREASE product availability and increase consumption, which will further increase price. They won't work, they have no marketable skills and they will pull in welfare benefits and cause crime to increase.

Yep. It'd be different if Britain actually had any industry that required labor. But I can't think of any product from the UK that I actually need, other than a .300WM AI AXMC bolt.

 

[Lightning8]

I actually bid today on a collectable vehicle, and got outbid quickly. It's unreal how much collectable vehicles are selling for.

Do you watch Bring A Trailer (BAT)? It is insane watching collector car prices (and even what is considered a collector car).

 

[Lightning8]

Bench mark...

Average 401(k) balances drop below $100,000: Fidelity

Retirement investors at Fidelity have seen the average 401(k) balance slip below $100,000 and the rate of saving has slowed.

www.foxbusiness.com

Meanwhile no one except government employees have pensions any more.

 

[Alpine 338]

Do you watch Bring A Trailer (BAT)? It is insane watching collector car prices (and even what is considered a collector car).

Yup, I watched this yesterday, I've always wanted an 80-series Land Cruiser, but it's just getting out of hand, $127,500 is crazy.


No Reserve: 1997 Toyota Land Cruiser VX FZJ80 5-Speed for sale on BaT Auctions - ending November 18 (Lot #91,082) | Bring a Trailer

No Reserve: 1997 Toyota Land Cruiser VX FZJ80 5-Speed

Bid for the chance to own a No Reserve: 1997 Toyota Land Cruiser VX FZJ80 5-Speed at auction with Bring a Trailer, the home of the best vintage and classic cars online. Lot #91,082.

bringatrailer.com

 

[rlarsen462]

Yup, I watched this yesterday, I've always wanted an 80-series Land Cruiser, but it's just getting out of hand, $127,500 is crazy.


No Reserve: 1997 Toyota Land Cruiser VX FZJ80 5-Speed for sale on BaT Auctions - ending November 18 (Lot #91,082) | Bring a Trailer

No Reserve: 1997 Toyota Land Cruiser VX FZJ80 5-Speed

Bid for the chance to own a No Reserve: 1997 Toyota Land Cruiser VX FZJ80 5-Speed at auction with Bring a Trailer, the home of the best vintage and classic cars online. Lot #91,082.

bringatrailer.com

Just wait until they ban gas cars entirely...

I've been selectively buying high HP manual transmission vehicles with cash when feasible...They will be worth a fortune.

Having been into cars my entire life, even today I'm shocked by the stratospheric rise in the price of desirable manual transmission vehicles that are out of production (or even still in production but difficult to get) in relation to the same vehicle automatic or dual clutch version.

Prime example, before I had the resources I had the opportunity to buy a used gated 6 speed manual Ferrari F430 for about $135K. Take a gander at what those command now...

 

[Lightning8]

Just wait until they ban gas cars entirely...

I've been selectively buying high HP manual transmission vehicles with cash when feasible...They will be worth a fortune.

Having been into cars my entire life, even today I'm shocked by the stratospheric rise in the price of desirable manual transmission vehicles that are out of production (or even still in production but difficult to get) in relation to the same vehicle automatic or dual clutch version.

Prime example, before I had the resources I had the opportunity to buy a used gated 6 speed manual Ferrari F430 for about $135K. Take a gander at what those command now...

 

[Alpine 338]

Just wait until they ban gas cars entirely...

I've been selectively buying high HP manual transmission vehicles with cash when feasible...They will be worth a fortune.

Having been into cars my entire life, even today I'm shocked by the stratospheric rise in the price of desirable manual transmission vehicles that are out of production (or even still in production but difficult to get) in relation to the same vehicle automatic or dual clutch version.

Prime example, before I had the resources I had the opportunity to buy a used gated 6 speed manual Ferrari F430 for about $135K. Take a gander at what those command now...

Almost wants me to go out and buy another Toyota Tacoma with manual transmission just as a backup/spare. Bought my 2021 new almost 18-months ago, and the same thing in the used market is now another $10-15K higher. New 2022 models are unobtainable, especially with a manual.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I think Loretta Mester would get us out of this recession quicker than Jerome Powell.

Fed's Mester wants more progress on inflation before ending interest rate hikes

While acknowledging that recent data has been encouraging, the central bank official told CNBC that the progress is only a start.

www.cnbc.com

 

[babyguppy]

View attachment 8002423

used gated 6 speed manual Ferrari F430 for about $135K
that's a bit steeper than the 3 on the tree that I learned on.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

There have been many "job hoppers" who worked their way up to a good paying salary.
What so very few never consider is their employer can lower their wage as needed. The big companies have a full staff of lawyers who write in the fine print in your employee hand book. Don't get too comfy in that cushy new job... Look at the shake ups in Disney and Twitter as the economy winds down.

One more example... worldwide

JD.com to cut senior executives salaries by 10-20%

BEIJING (Reuters) - China's JD.com said on Tuesday it would cut the salaries of its senior managers by 10-20% next year to help pay for an effort to convert more contractors to salaried staff and

www.oann.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I don't think the market has bottomed, as a whole. Maybe a sector or two has bottomed. I'd look for the SPX to go down to 3600 (again).... May bounce along and form "W" bottom or build a base there and wait out the FED in 2023.

Stocks Have Already Bottomed. How We Know.

There are mounting signals that the stock market has already marked its low point. That doesn't mean upside from here will be easy, however.

www.marketwatch.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The link in the post above seems to have the opinion that the markets have bottomed.
When I see this , I doubt the bottom has been hit:


HP Inc. announced on Tuesday that it will lay off thousands of workers over the next three years, becoming the latest tech company to significantly downsize staffing amid a souring economic climate.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/22/tech/hp-layoffs/index.html

 

[Hobo Hilton]

No bottom in sight.
_________
“Headwinds to consumer strength have started to emerge. Strong incomes have thus far helped consumers, particularly lower-wage workers, cope with high inflation,” Hsu said in a statement. “However, their perceptions of weakening labor markets could make them pull back their spending in the future. Wealthier households are experiencing declining stock markets and home values, which would also produce drag on their willingness to spend.”

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/23/economy/us-consumer-sentiment-final-november/index.html

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Some have written 2023 off....

Get ready for a prolonged downturn that’s worse than 2000 or 2008, billionaire VC Doug Leone says

Sequoia Capital partner Doug Leone warned today's economic downturn was "more difficult and more challenging" than recessions in 2000 and 2008.

www.cnbc.com

 

[lariat]

MSN

www.msn.com

 

[softcock]

MSN

www.msn.com

B of A, They just fishing for some of that 2+ Trillion-$$$ borrowed, that is still sitting ripe for the taking .
.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Cutting back on office help....

Delivery service DoorDash is laying off 1,250 corporate workers as part of a continued cost-cutting effort, driven by tapering growth and overhiring, CEO Tony Xu said in a message to employees on Wednesday.

DoorDash lays off 1,250 employees

Doordash became the latest tech company to lay off staff, with CEO Tony Xu announcing that over 1200 workers would be laid off as part of broad cost cuts.

www.cnbc.com

 

[rlarsen462]

used gated 6 speed manual Ferrari F430 for about $135K
that's a bit steeper than the 3 on the tree that I learned on.

I didn't word it great but it was way out of my reach at the time at that price. Would buy it in a heartbeat now if it were still that price though.

Also continuing the evidence of underground manual love, a manual 2000 Iduzo Rodeo single owner popped up the next town over the other day, wanted to see if my daughter wanted it as her first car (she's saved $3500 and that's what it was priced at) but needed to wait for her to get off work.

Guy sold it to multiple (like 6) offers well over asking within hours.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Funny......... Propaganda kept saying "We are not seeing a recession". So, 1,000 lay off's here and a 1,000 lay off's there and soon there will be a panic because "We are in a recession"..... That will come from the forward thinking analysis and career politicians who were wrong... You had plenty of warning.

The visionary of the Hide - @Bigfatcock

Crypto exchange Kraken lays off 1,100 employees

Kraken, one of the world's largest crypto exchanges, announced it is laying off 1,100 workers, or 30% of its headcount.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Bigfatcock]

Funny......... Propaganda kept saying "We are not seeing a recession". So, 1,000 lay off's here and a 1,000 lay off's there and soon there will be a panic because "We are in a recession"..... That will come from the forward thinking analysis and career politicians who were wrong... You had plenty of warning.

The visionary of the Hide - @Bigfatcock

Crypto exchange Kraken lays off 1,100 employees

Kraken, one of the world's largest crypto exchanges, announced it is laying off 1,100 workers, or 30% of its headcount.

www.cnbc.com

All bullish analysts are wrong or lying.

I will say that this recession is interesting. Seems almost targeted at only low income and low middle class people. Everyone I know are still making and spending money like crazy.

Kind of makes sense though since all the pandemic spending did was bolster the pockets of traditional low income people.

Interesting indeed.

 

[Lightning8]

My broken record - the advances in AI/ML/"robots" is leading to the "white collar" layoffs - SKYNET is coming. Only good news is it is reducing jobs outsourced to India, etc. too. Your next call about your extended car warranty will have an AI accent mimicking an Indian national

 

[Hobo Hilton]

All bullish analysts are wrong or lying.

I will say that this recession is interesting. Seems almost targeted at only low income and low middle class people. Everyone I know are still making and spending money like crazy.

Kind of makes sense though since all the pandemic spending did was bolster the pockets of traditional low income people.

Interesting indeed.

I like Elon... He may be off base with this one but we will have to wait and see.

Elon Musk thinks a recession is coming and worries the Federal Reserve’s attempts to bring down inflation could make it worse.
In a tweet early Wednesday, the Tesla CEO and Twitter owner called on the Fed “to cut interest rates immediately” or risk “amplifying the probability of a severe recession.”

Elon Musk says the Fed must cut rates ‘immediately’ to stop a severe recession

In a tweet early Wednesday, Musk called on the Fed "to cut interest rates immediately" or risk "amplifying the probability of a severe recession."

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Today:

Inflation​

“The pace of price increases slowed,” the Beige Book said, in response to weaker demand and easing supply-chain bottlenecks. Retailers in particular had to cut price in some cases to sell off an excess of goods.
Prices also fell for some commodities such as lumber while rent and home prices grew more slowly.
Further progress was likely to be slow, however. “Inflation was expected to hold steady or moderate further moving forward,” the survey said.
The increase in U.S. inflation in the 12 months ended in October stood at 7.7%. That’s down from a 40-year high of 9.1% in June.

Inflation slows, Fed's Beige Book finds, but recession worries grow

The U.S. economy grew steadily through the fall and inflation eased a bit, a Federal Reserve survey found, but many businesses expressed "greater uncertainty...

www.marketwatch.com

 

[Lightning8]

All bullish analysts are wrong or lying.

I will say that this recession is interesting. Seems almost targeted at only low income and low middle class people. Everyone I know are still making and spending money like crazy.

Kind of makes sense though since all the pandemic spending did was bolster the pockets of traditional low income people.

Interesting indeed.

Seems like fast food restaurants etc. finally have some staffing - suspect that the "Covid" stimulus checks etc. have run out and people finally have to work

 

[lariat]

MSN

www.msn.com

 

[Romeo458]

Yup, I watched this yesterday, I've always wanted an 80-series Land Cruiser, but it's just getting out of hand, $127,500 is crazy.


No Reserve: 1997 Toyota Land Cruiser VX FZJ80 5-Speed for sale on BaT Auctions - ending November 18 (Lot #91,082) | Bring a Trailer

No Reserve: 1997 Toyota Land Cruiser VX FZJ80 5-Speed

Bid for the chance to own a No Reserve: 1997 Toyota Land Cruiser VX FZJ80 5-Speed at auction with Bring a Trailer, the home of the best vintage and classic cars online. Lot #91,082.

bringatrailer.com

And I thought the 20 year old Ford Ranger selling at the dealership for 20k was ridiculous. I wonder what my freshly restored TJ would get

 

[Hobo Hilton]

MSN

www.msn.com

First he marks to market losses on loans and securities created during 2020 and 2021, for the impact of this year’s Fed rate hikes.

Wow, been a long time since I heard anyone say "Mark to Market"...... I thought they were just letting all that debt slide like the FED's are doing.

MSN

www.msn.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Hope is not a Plan:
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made investors very happy on Wednesday. US stocks popped after the central banker gave a speech strongly indicating that the Fed would ease the historically-high pace of interest rate rises at its next policy meeting in December. But investors who are expecting a full pivot may be putting the cart before the horse. Powell’s admission that “the path ahead for inflation remains highly uncertain” means that rate hikes could be here for a while.
What’s happening: Investors have been closely watching for any clues that the Fed might slow or pause its painful path of rate hikes, intended to fight persistent inflation. But their search for signs has led to a hopeful distortion of facts: Powell says “moderate” and investors hear “pivot.”

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/01/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Drink some more Koolaid.

Key inflation measure that the Fed follows rose 0.2% in October, less than expected

The core personal consumption expenditures price index was expected to rise 0.3% in October and 5% from a year ago, according to Dow Jones estimates.

www.cnbc.com

 

[lariat]

Drink some more Koolaid.

Key inflation measure that the Fed follows rose 0.2% in October, less than expected

The core personal consumption expenditures price index was expected to rise 0.3% in October and 5% from a year ago, according to Dow Jones estimates.

www.cnbc.com

"Inflation rose in October about in line with estimates, sending a sign that price increases at least are stabilizing, the Commerce Department reported Thursday." I hope by now everyone here can plainly see the bullshit in that statement.

"Food inflation increased 0.4% while energy goods and services prices rose 2.5%."

This article is all over the map, throwing out data but doing nothing with the implications other than trying to throw out good vibes.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Identical sales grew by 6.9%,..... Inflation has not gone away nor is it showing a "leveling off"..

Kroger hikes forecast after stronger grocery sales top estimates

Kroger raised its forecast after its earnings topped expectations, with inflation pushing up the prices that shoppers pay for groceries.

www.cnbc.com