Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024

[Inifinty]

“What we are very concerned [about] is the unexpected,” Georgieva said.

'Think of the unthinkable': IMF chief warns world is a very different place after crises like Covid

IMF Managing Director Georgieva Kristalina said that, in the "shock-prone" world we live in, people need to be more agile and "think of the unthinkable."

www.cnbc.com

She is talking about an accelerated rinse and repeat action where they use corruption to subvert economies and people so that they can turn around and swoop up more assets, money, and power.

This cycle should be pretty obvious to anyone paying attention this time around.

Eat bugs.

 

[babyguppy]

She is talking about an accelerated rinse and repeat action where they use corruption to subvert economies and people so that they can turn around and swoop up more assets, money, and power.

This cycle should be pretty obvious to anyone paying attention this time around.

Eat bugs.

"“We are not where we should be in being good stewards of our planet for our children,” Georgieva added."
- aka, getting ready for MORE TAXES...... due to climate change.. and eat the bugs
it's for the children
it's for the planet

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Wholesale prices rose 0.7% in January, more than expected fueling inflation increase

www.cnbc.com

 

[babyguppy]

MSN

 

[Hobo Hilton]

MSN

For those who have 1) a warehouse and 2) future building projects under contract.... Now is the time to stock up.
I'm not seeing my local building materials places stocking up their storage yards. Maybe they know something... IDK
Lumber futures are a lagging indicator of home building There is a disconnect between futures of lumber and physical prices of lumber Demand for homes still under construction ...

Lumber chart - 1 year

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Consumer debt hits record $16.9 trillion as delinquencies rise as well

Debt across all categories totaled $16.9 trillion as balances rose across all major categories.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The average American income is not keeping pace with inflation. This chart says it all. Take a look at that chart. The brief positive blip in 2020 is attributable to the combined effect of people reducing their expenses by staying at home and receiving the veritable helicopter drop of economic stimulus checks. But since then, we’ve been collectively blindsided by inflation.


Do not expect inflation to get back under 5% for a decade or more. The Federal Reserve”s recent credit tightening has been insufficient to stem the flood of inflation. If the U.S. Dollar becomes disfavored on the Forex, then we could see a flip-over into mass inflation. All that it would take is a net outflow of foreign investment, to trigger that.

A Word Of Warning On Preserving Your Wealth by James W. Rawles

A Word Of Warning On Preserving Your Wealth by James W. Rawles. As of 2019, there were more than $14 billion in $100 Dollar bills in circulation.

survivalblog.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Watch the trend line. It does not lie.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

This rolling recession is like "Musical Chairs" with a steam roller added. When the music stops and the roller is on top of you.... How's it working out ?
________________________________
Rolling Recession:
“Rolling recessions” has become a popular term these days for what the U.S. has faced since a slowdown that started in early 2022. The term connotes that while the economy may not meet an official recession definition, there will be sectors that will feel very much like they are in contraction.

Covid's 'legacy of weirdness': Layoffs spread, but some employers can't hire fast enough

Retail sales and other economic data has been positive, despite inflation and rising interest rates.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. existing home sales dropped to a more than 12-year low in January, but the pace of decline slowed, raising cautious optimism that the housing market slump could be close to reaching a bottom.
Existing home sales fell 0.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million units last month, the lowest level since October 2010, the National Association of Realtors said on Tuesday. That marked the 12th straight monthly decline in sales, the longest such stretch since 1999.
Sales fell in the Northeast and Midwest, but rose in the South and West. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast home sales rising to a rate of 4.10 million units.
Home resales, which account for a big chunk of U.S. housing sales, plunged 36.9% on a year-on-year basis in January.
"Home sales are bottoming out," said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun.
The housing market has been the biggest casualty of the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hiking campaign. Residential investment has contracted for seven straight quarters, the longest such stretch since 2009.
______________________________________

Like every other form of commerce in America. government has it's "finger's in the figures"......
Selling fewer houses at inflated prices keeps the "Holy Grail of Government numbers" looking great.
Meanwhile the middle income class is earning less and paying more, for everything.
A cycle that can not continue.
Snug your seat belt. No soft landing in sight. If this makes you squeamish..
Go watch a streamed movie and cover up with your soft blankie.

https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-02-21/u-s-existing-home-sales-fall-in-january-but-pace-slowing

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Best get what you need while it is still available.

Walmart and Home Depot are getting ready for a consumer slowdown

Walmart and Home Depot gave full-year outlooks that disappointed some investors, as shoppers contend with inflation.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Alpine 338]

Best get what you need while it is still available.

Walmart and Home Depot are getting ready for a consumer slowdown

Walmart and Home Depot gave full-year outlooks that disappointed some investors, as shoppers contend with inflation.

www.cnbc.com

Yeah, I've been seeing this pattern here locally.

Walmart - no engine oil on the shelf other than some odd viscosities, that few use. Not much better selection at the auto parts stores, who are traditionally 20% higher priced. Less and less choices for oil/air filters for popular models.

NAPA, AutoZone, O'Reilly, etc. - Out of stock on most types of engine coolants.

Local and Online Tire stores - limited sizes on tires, with some brands not even available from their distributor anymore. Need to go up/down in tire size just to get a set of tires that fit your requirements.

I've started to stock (some call it hoard) oil, filters, and grease for all my vehicles, as they typically don't have a shelf life. Will start doing the same with belts and hoses. Sad times we're living in, and it's getting worse day by day.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Yeah, I've been seeing this pattern here locally.

Walmart - no engine oil on the shelf other than some odd viscosities, that few use. Not much better selection at the auto parts stores, who are traditionally 20% higher priced. Less and less choices for oil/air filters for popular models.

NAPA, AutoZone, O'Reilly, etc. - Out of stock on most types of engine coolants.

Local and Online Tire stores - limited sizes on tires, with some brands not even available from their distributor anymore. Need to go up/down in tire size just to get a set of tires that fit your requirements.

I've started to stock (some call it hoard) oil, filters, and grease for all my vehicles, as they typically don't have a shelf life. Will start doing the same with belts and hoses. Sad times we're living in, and it's getting worse day by day.

What I have also noticed while shopping for some good quality grease refill cartridges.......
What is left on the shelves is what I term "Scraping the bottom of the barrel".......
"QUALITY" is getting more difficult to find, by the day.
No one is coming.
Read the note at the bottom !

 

[Emerson0311]

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. existing home sales dropped to a more than 12-year low in January, but the pace of decline slowed, raising cautious optimism that the housing market slump could be close to reaching a bottom.
Existing home sales fell 0.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million units last month, the lowest level since October 2010, the National Association of Realtors said on Tuesday. That marked the 12th straight monthly decline in sales, the longest such stretch since 1999.
Sales fell in the Northeast and Midwest, but rose in the South and West. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast home sales rising to a rate of 4.10 million units.
Home resales, which account for a big chunk of U.S. housing sales, plunged 36.9% on a year-on-year basis in January.
"Home sales are bottoming out," said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun.
The housing market has been the biggest casualty of the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hiking campaign. Residential investment has contracted for seven straight quarters, the longest such stretch since 2009.
______________________________________

Like every other form of commerce in America. government has it's "finger's in the figures"......
Selling fewer houses at inflated prices keeps the "Holy Grail of Government numbers" looking great.
Meanwhile the middle income class is earning less and paying more, for everything.
A cycle that can not continue.
Snug your seat belt. No soft landing in sight. If this makes you squeamish..
Go watch a streamed movie and cover up with your soft blankie.

https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-02-21/u-s-existing-home-sales-fall-in-january-but-pace-slowing

Sad but true. My wife has a single mother friend on welfare, bad choices of course although she didn’t have much of a chance, but very organized and no addictions. She and her daughter are literally starving without help, due to inflation. Fuck Ukraine. We will do what we can for her until we are in the same spot.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Posturing for the "Long Haul".

Wells Fargo
laid off hundreds of mortgage bankers this week as part of a sweeping round of cuts triggered by the bank’s recent strategic shift, CNBC has learned.

The layoffs were announced Tuesday and ensnared some top producers, including a few bankers who surpassed $100 million in loan volumes last year and who recently attended an internal sales conference for high achievers, according to people with knowledge of the situation.

Wells Fargo lays off mortgage bankers days after rewarding some with California retreat

Some Wells Fargo bankers were successful enough last year to be flown to a resort in Palm Desert, California, for a company-sponsored conference this month.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Feb 22 (Reuters) - Intel Corp (INTC.O) on Wednesday cut its dividend payout to its lowest in 16 years and decided to scale back big investments to save cash amid slowing demand for its chips used in personal computers and data centers.

Once a leading chipmaker, Intel is now racing to catch up with rivals such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd (2330.TW) on manufacturing technology, while looking to grow its foundry business at the cost of lower margins.

Intel cuts dividend to lowest since 2007 to save cash

Intel Corp on Wednesday cut its dividend payout to its lowest in 16 years and decided to scale back big investments to save cash amid slowing demand for its chips used in personal computers and data centers.

www.reuters.com

 

[IronSkillet]

Things that don't add up, The Federal Reserve Chairman keeps raising interest rates to slow down the economy ( it is not good for us to spend) but on the other hand the government cannot give money away quick enough, Ukraine and the trickle down to state gov. get handouts for pet projects. The new Congress has done nothing to pump the brakes. Pelosi was simply replaced by another Commiefornia scammer. As others have said I believe now is a good time to invest in XYZ around the house because cost factoring and availability in the future is questionable. With the growing season starting, our surplus vegetables in the past went on a table at the end of the driveway "FREE". With todays Walmart run I plan on purchasing 3x dozen mason jars, to can surplus veggies for future needs.

Costco has not had 'Prime" beef since the new year and if they do like last Saturday's shopping trip it was only 3 not so good looking steak packages @ $24. perlbs. If they can't get it whatz-up-yo!

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Things that don't add up, The Federal Reserve Chairman keeps raising interest rates to slow down the economy ( it is not good for us to spend) but on the other hand the government cannot give money away quick enough, Ukraine and the trickle down to state gov. get handouts for pet projects. The new Congress has done nothing to pump the brakes. Pelosi was simply replaced by another Commiefornia scammer. As others have said I believe now is a good time to invest in XYZ around the house because cost factoring and availability in the future is questionable. With the growing season starting, our surplus vegetables in the past went on a table at the end of the driveway "FREE". With todays Walmart run I plan on purchasing 3x dozen mason jars, to can surplus veggies for future needs.

Costco has not had 'Prime" beef since the new year and if they do like last Saturday's shopping trip it was only 3 not so good looking steak packages @ $24. perlbs. If they can't get it whatz-up-yo!

You have identified challenges facing the working middle class.
A large percentage of people residing in America (Legal, Illegal, Green Card VISA's, etc) never experience what you are seeing because they are "on the dole".
Free money is given to those on the "Baby Machine" band wagon. Free housing, medical care,transportation and an IPhone to get more free programs.
The biggest "robbery without a gun" is happening to worker's 401k, pensions, retirement accounts. This money is being invested by "Investment Experts" into the riskiest programs ever invented. There will be monumental losses and those folks will have nothing to fall back on when they turn 65.... They will work until they die.

Canning and stocking will get a person by for a while, a long term, sustainable homestead is the answer. But, a person must have the mindset to defend the homestead.
Going to be a tough row to hoe.
_____________________________________________
You folk's in the CalPers take note. This is your retirement money.

The $6.7 billion Blackstone Tactical Opportunities Fund II and the Tactical Opportunities Fund III, which raised $4.09 billion, had generated a net internal rate of return of 14.1% and 11.7%, respectively, as of June last year, according to the California Public Employees' Retirement System.

Exclusive: Blackstone set to raise as much as $10 billion for tactical opportunities

Blackstone Inc , the world's largest private equity firm, is set to raise as much as $10 billion for its tactical opportunities strategy, which gives it versatility to invest in a range of assets, people familiar with the matter told Reuters.

www.reuters.com

 

[Tempest 455]

My son manages the lumber dept at major national store for contractors building homes. 2 months ago he was told by corporate not to buy and lumber or concrete until further notice. Transfer from other warehouses.

Their biz is very strong and consistent. We are in one of the strongest housing markets in the US. He said Feb is tracking to be half of what Jan was.

I'm seeing same volume erosion in my biz.

 

[babyguppy]

Question -
What happened to the U7 unemployment rate. I went to look it up and it no longer exists on the BLS website.
I thought I might have been crazy, thinking that I might of misremembered.
but, no, PBS had it out there for 2012.
It appears it has been scrubbed. It was an accurate number, and now, BLS only goes U1 - U6.
From article

According to the modestly titled “Solman Scale,” our all-inclusive un- and underemployment number, U7, rose again in July and is back up to 17 percent. But the more important punchline may be the reminder of just how incomplete our picture of the U.S. labor market actually is.​

U7 Unemployment Rises Again: How Little We Know

Viewed on a computer screen, jobless veterans take a class at the new Workforce1 Veterans Career Center on July 31 in New York City. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate for all veterans in June was 7.4 percent. Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images. According to the...

www.pbs.org

It appears the BLS is in full minipulation mode

Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Tumble Again: Sixth Straight Week Below 200,000​

Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Tumble Again: Sixth Straight Week Below 200,000

The Fed's policy stance increased looks like it is "insufficiently restrictive" to rein in demand for labor. | Economy

www.breitbart.com

 

[Alpine 338]

I know it's a regional thing, but more and more homes are coming on the market here in my area (Rocky Mountain West), but they're still priced as if it was late 2021. I think people are realizing they got in over their heads, and are having second thoughts of living the dream in the mountains, or owning a second home, but obviously it hasn't gotten bad enough for them to drop their prices to get out of their investments.

The other thing that's astonishing is all the home builders and excavators here are all still booked out two and three years.

So obviously, there's people with wealth that are still not hurting.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Question -
What happened to the U7 unemployment rate. I went to look it up and it no longer exists on the BLS website.
I thought I might have been crazy, thinking that I might of misremembered.
but, no, PBS had it out there for 2012.
It appears it has been scrubbed. It was an accurate number, and now, BLS only goes U1 - U6.
From article

According to the modestly titled “Solman Scale,” our all-inclusive un- and underemployment number, U7, rose again in July and is back up to 17 percent. But the more important punchline may be the reminder of just how incomplete our picture of the U.S. labor market actually is.​

U7 Unemployment Rises Again: How Little We Know

Viewed on a computer screen, jobless veterans take a class at the new Workforce1 Veterans Career Center on July 31 in New York City. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate for all veterans in June was 7.4 percent. Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images. According to the...

www.pbs.org

It appears the BLS is in full minipulation mode

Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Tumble Again: Sixth Straight Week Below 200,000​

Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Tumble Again: Sixth Straight Week Below 200,000

The Fed's policy stance increased looks like it is "insufficiently restrictive" to rein in demand for labor. | Economy

www.breitbart.com

Anything that is a "negative indicator" is being removed from the Internet. My indicators are cost to fuel my truck, cost of a weeks worth of groceries, cost of my property tax and home owner's insurance. None of which is paid by the "government"...

 

[fpgt72]

Yeah, I've been seeing this pattern here locally.

Walmart - no engine oil on the shelf other than some odd viscosities, that few use. Not much better selection at the auto parts stores, who are traditionally 20% higher priced. Less and less choices for oil/air filters for popular models.

NAPA, AutoZone, O'Reilly, etc. - Out of stock on most types of engine coolants.

Local and Online Tire stores - limited sizes on tires, with some brands not even available from their distributor anymore. Need to go up/down in tire size just to get a set of tires that fit your requirements.

I've started to stock (some call it hoard) oil, filters, and grease for all my vehicles, as they typically don't have a shelf life. Will start doing the same with belts and hoses. Sad times we're living in, and it's getting worse day by day.

I am building a loft in my shop, the normal stuff OSB, 2x6, posts..... I had to make some changes in my order as some of the stuff was just not available.

What I can't get are the prices, Sutherland has an item for $36, while Home Depot and Lowes has it for $21. That I don't understand.

Some places also had stuff while others did not. Needed unistrut for a hoist. Had to go to two different places to find it, and they had just enough to finish what I wanted to do.

I don't think it is going to be good.

 

[Alpine 338]

I am building a loft in my shop, the normal stuff OSB, 2x6, posts..... I had to make some changes in my order as some of the stuff was just not available.

What I can't get are the prices, Sutherland has an item for $36, while Home Depot and Lowes has it for $21. That I don't understand.

Some places also had stuff while others did not. Needed unistrut for a hoist. Had to go to two different places to find it, and they had just enough to finish what I wanted to do.

I don't think it is going to be good.

Yeah, Speaking of unistrut, I couldn't find any in stainless steel locally. Lot of dealers offered to special order it, except no-name brand stuff that was probably made in China. Trying to go through official unistrut dealership was just going nowhere. Ended up ordering it from a big distributor in Ohio, and that cost me a small fortune.

 

[Alpine 338]

I am building a loft in my shop, the normal stuff OSB, 2x6, posts..... I had to make some changes in my order as some of the stuff was just not available.

What I can't get are the prices, Sutherland has an item for $36, while Home Depot and Lowes has it for $21. That I don't understand.

Some places also had stuff while others did not. Needed unistrut for a hoist. Had to go to two different places to find it, and they had just enough to finish what I wanted to do.

I don't think it is going to be good.

Unfortunately, I think Sutherland's is a failing company, they've closed most of their stores local to me. I remember shopping exclusively with them for electrical supplies because they had better prices than most other's, and at the time they were the only ones outside of exclusive electric supply houses to actually carry Made in USA stuff, like switches, outlets, etc.

I'm finding Menards offers better products, and better prices than most (Home Depot, Lowes, etc.). Unfortunately, the closest one to me is in Cheyenne Wyoming.

 

[fpgt72]

Unfortunately, I think Sutherland's is a failing company, they've closed most of their stores local to me. I remember shopping exclusively with them for electrical supplies because they had better prices than most other's, and at the time they were the only ones outside of exclusive electric supply houses to actually carry Made in USA stuff, like switches, outlets, etc.

I'm finding Menards offers better products, and better prices than most (Home Depot, Lowes, etc.). Unfortunately, the closest one to me is in Cheyenne Wyoming.

I like Menards as well, but like you the most close one is over an hour away.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I am building a loft in my shop, the normal stuff OSB, 2x6, posts..... I had to make some changes in my order as some of the stuff was just not available.

What I can't get are the prices, Sutherland has an item for $36, while Home Depot and Lowes has it for $21. That I don't understand.

Some places also had stuff while others did not. Needed unistrut for a hoist. Had to go to two different places to find it, and they had just enough to finish what I wanted to do.

I don't think it is going to be good.

First... These are just the opinion's of one old retired guy.

The "price spread" is resulting from the cost of an item a retailer has in stock. Many misjudged the situations and stocked the shelves when prices were very high. They have to sell at that high price because that is what they paid for it.

Some places have stuff because they have a cheap warehouse to store inventory. Many retailers have cleaned out that "Rented Warehouse" because the warehouse owners are raising the rent because their operating expenses are going up (taxes, employee wages, insurance, etc).

What is becoming more and more evident is the Government and the so called analysist keep painting a rosy picture to keep commerce going. They are lying through their teeth.

I know of some regional Electrical Contractor's who bought the vacant lot next to their business and are putting up a quickie metal building shell simply to stock 'run of the mill" electrical supplies like conduit and Romex.... They can't bulk buy like Home Depot but can take advantage of surplus items coming available.

No, it won't be good for many. The flip side to that is the older American's who weathered 3 - 4 recessions know exactly what moves to make in order to keep a small business afloat. Similar to the stock market.. For one man to make money, another man has to lose money.

Snug your seat belt...

No refunds

 

[Hobo Hilton]

If you or any of your family has a retirement next egg in BlackStone... Consider moving it somewhere else. They are getting high returns on some of the riskiest investments on the face of the Earth.

Retirees lost 23% of their 401(k) savings in 2022, Fidelity says

Retirement 401(k) account balances lost nearly one-quarter of their value in 2022, according to Fidelity Investments, the largest 401(k) provider in the U.S.

www.cnbc.com

BXMIX | Blackstone Alternative Multi-Strategy Fund

Blackstone BXMIX is a core alternative solution providing a diversified blend of alternative strategies and managers in a single daily liquid mutual fund.

bxmix.blackstone.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

"Slower consumer spending over the last few months of 2022 contributed to a downward revision in estimated real GDP for Q4, consistent with Morning Consult's findings that showed elevated price sensitivity and trading down behavior among U.S. adults during that period," Kayla Bruun, an economic analyst at decision intelligence company Morning Consult, said in a statement. "Today's report also showed signs of improvement for household finances, potentially providing some breathing room for inflation-weary consumers heading into 2023."

U.S. fourth quarter GDP estimate lowered as consumer spending slows

GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.7% in the fourth quarter of 2022 after rising 3.2% in the third quarter, according to the second estimate from the BEA.

www.foxbusiness.com

 

[NoDopes]

With runaway inflation.... GDP will always look "good".

 

[Hobo Hilton]

With runaway inflation.... GDP will always look "good".

It's not what they are telling you...
It's what they are not telling you.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Reality is setting in:

U.S. stocks fell sharply Friday after the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge showed a stronger-than-expected increase in prices last month.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 386 points, or 1.1%. The S&P 500
and Nasdaq Composite slid 1.4% and 1.8%, respectively.
The core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred measurement of inflation, rose 0.6% in January and 4.7% from the prior year, coming above economists’ expectations.
The report added to worries that the Fed may have to keep rates higher for longer to quell inflationary pressures.

Dow drops more than 300 points as a hot inflation report rattles Wall Street: Live updates

Investors continue to worry about the pace of future interest rate hikes in the face of contradictory economic signals.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Ericsson to lay off 8,500 workers as part of cost-cutting plan

The layoffs will affect roughly 8% of Ericsson's staff of 105,529 worldwide.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Fed's Mester says she has hope that inflation can be brought down without a recession

In a CNBC interview, Mester said she sees the central bank's benchmark interest rate having to rise above 5% and stay there for a while.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

We’re looking at higher than normal price increases, certainly through 2023 and probably through much of 2024, as well.
William Luther
director of the American Institute for Economic Research’s Sound Money Project

As new data shows inflation rose in January, here's what consumers can expect next

Price growth will likely stay higher this year, and the Federal Reserve is poised to continue to hike interest rates.

www.cnbc.com

 

[babyguppy]

As new data shows inflation rose in January, here's what consumers can expect next

Price growth will likely stay higher this year, and the Federal Reserve is poised to continue to hike interest rates.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

“We find no instance in which a central-[bank]induced disinflation occurred without a recession,” said the paper, co-authored by economists Stephen Cecchetti, Michael Feroli, Peter Hooper and Kermit Schoenholtz.

Fed can't tame inflation without 'significantly' more hikes that will cause a recession, paper says

The Federal Reserve is unlikely to be able to bring down inflation without having to push rates considerably higher, according to a research paper.

www.cnbc.com

 

[babyguppy]

“We find no instance in which a central-[bank]induced disinflation occurred without a recession,” said the paper, co-authored by economists Stephen Cecchetti, Michael Feroli, Peter Hooper and Kermit Schoenholtz.

Fed can't tame inflation without 'significantly' more hikes that will cause a recession, paper says

The Federal Reserve is unlikely to be able to bring down inflation without having to push rates considerably higher, according to a research paper.

www.cnbc.com

key words
no instance in which a central-[bank]induced disinflation occurred without a recession,”

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Analysts have long expected a slowdown in the US labor market, but for the past 10 months, the data has come in better than expected.
That may sound like a good thing for the economy, but as the Federal Reserve attempts to fight inflation, the still-hot jobs market is signaling that more painful interest rate hikes could be ahead.
But lately, some economists have begun to worry that the data on which Fed officials rely is becoming increasingly inaccurate. The number of people responding to labor market and inflation surveys has been declining for years, and the pandemic accelerated that slowdown. That causes more volatility in the incoming data and hence more volatility in markets, economists say.

Why the Fed is increasingly flying blind on the economy

Analysts have long expected a slowdown in the US labor market, but for the past 10 months, the data has come in better than expected.

www.cnn.com

Jim Cramer says the Fed can't calm a market where 'nothing is predictable'

"Nothing in this economy is working like it's supposed to, nothing is predictable"," said CNBC's Jim Cramer.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Lightning8]

Analysts have long expected a slowdown in the US labor market, but for the past 10 months, the data has come in better than expected.
That may sound like a good thing for the economy, but as the Federal Reserve attempts to fight inflation, the still-hot jobs market is signaling that more painful interest rate hikes could be ahead.
But lately, some economists have begun to worry that the data on which Fed officials rely is becoming increasingly inaccurate. The number of people responding to labor market and inflation surveys has been declining for years, and the pandemic accelerated that slowdown. That causes more volatility in the incoming data and hence more volatility in markets, economists say.

Why the Fed is increasingly flying blind on the economy

Analysts have long expected a slowdown in the US labor market, but for the past 10 months, the data has come in better than expected.

www.cnn.com

Jim Cramer says the Fed can't calm a market where 'nothing is predictable'

"Nothing in this economy is working like it's supposed to, nothing is predictable"," said CNBC's Jim Cramer.

www.cnbc.com

I do not believe the labor numbers. People make more money sitting at home on government dole - so why work. Unemployment numbers assume people want or need to work. Never had a situation in US in past with so many people who can work who do not work. New situation for the market. That is why they are dragging out COVID 19 emergency as so many are using the "emergency" to get freebies.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Too little, too late... 12 more months of inflation pushes us well into 2024 with a hard landing.

CNBC Daily Open: Markets reeled as Fed officials confirmed commitment to high interest rates

Hawkish sentiment from Fed officials and higher manufacturing prices weighed on stocks and buoyed Treasury yields, giving markets a bad start to March.

www.cnbc.com

 

[babyguppy]

Too little, too late... 12 more months of inflation pushes us well into 2024 with a hard landing.

CNBC Daily Open: Markets reeled as Fed officials confirmed commitment to high interest rates

Hawkish sentiment from Fed officials and higher manufacturing prices weighed on stocks and buoyed Treasury yields, giving markets a bad start to March.

www.cnbc.com

but they promised a SOFT landing

 

[Hobo Hilton]

but they promised a SOFT landing

"THEY" have a Golden Parachute.... You and I have that military, non-padded, jump seat.
Facing forward with no seat belt.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The brokerage expects the U.S. economy to tip into recession by the third quarter of 2023.

Real Time Precious Metal Quotes and Charts

 

[Hobo Hilton]

CFOs prepare to face a turbulent economy

Finance leaders share what they learned while navigating past crises and what CFOs can do to keep their organizations resilient.

www.journalofaccountancy.com

 

[babyguppy]

The brokerage expects the U.S. economy to tip into recession by the third quarter of 2023.

Real Time Precious Metal Quotes and Charts

so........
which definition of 'Recession' are they using this time or will it be redefined?

 

[Hobo Hilton]

so........
which definition of 'Recession' are they using this time or will it be redefined?

They will be redefining it 10 years after it is over. Look at how they changed definitions of the previous 5 - 6 recessions.
Selling snake oil is their profession.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Amazon to close eight Go convenience stores in cost-cutting move

Amazon has been reevaluating its brick-and-mortar presence as it looks to cut costs.

www.cnbc.com

 

[IronSkillet]

Amazon to close eight Go convenience stores in cost-cutting move

Amazon has been reevaluating its brick-and-mortar presence as it looks to cut costs.

www.cnbc.com

Side Bar; it appears the new distribution center under construction in Tallahassee is moving along at a snails pace, makes me wonder if they are reevaluating the needs of the company.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Side Bar; it appears the new distribution center under construction in Tallahassee is moving along at a snails pace, makes me wonder if they are reevaluating the needs of the company.

Puzzling... As smart as those people are, how is it they did not see this recession coming and adjust ... ??
Maybe they drank the Kool-Aid.