Stock Market

[SilentStalkr]

All gains in last year wiped out in a few days. Thanks Donny.

Well, I just made a pretty siginificant investment. I wish I could have bought more but am keeping some aside for more opp as I don’t think this is the end. It may pull back another half before it’s over. Regardless, the next few weeks, months, possibly years ain’t going to be for the week at heart.

 

[AZLong]

Oh my god....you should sell everything now....

I guess you missed this...

There's a plan.
I dumped equities 3 days post inauguration. If you are holding, not many options now...

 

[Malum Prohibitum]

All gains in last year wiped out in a few days. Thanks Donny.

Two days is not a few. It is a couple.

 

[lariat]

But there ARE options. Setting a sell price was one of them. This is still the case. Buy and hold is great when the market is going up. But when it is going down…

If you held the s&p in the early 2000’s while it dumped it wasn’t until 2015 or so that you got back to break even. If you account for inflation it was almost or right at 2020 that you managed that. And that was through some serious money printing, not real value that was generated by corporations. It created the same malinvestment that we saw in the late 90’s and 2000 (pets.com or peapod.com for example). The Covid pump made it even worse. If you think AI isn’t following the same pattern as the dot com investment bubble I got news for you.

The big/smart money/c-level officers have been leaving the market for a year or more. That only leaves the retail investors, their fund managers (who want to make a commission), pension managers and CTAs (computer trading algorithms). It’s a big clue, along with the technical and economic data that were forecasting this, even if tariffs didn’t speed up the process.

The debt market is still the elephant in the room. Especially the use of debt to buy stocks, which is at a historically high level. When/if that goes sideways it’s going to be a first-class shitshow. The muni and junk bond market, holy hell…

 

[Gwak06]

But there ARE options. Setting a sell price was one of them. This is still the case. Buy and hold is great when the market is going up. But when it is going down…

If you held the s&p in the early 2000’s while it dumped it wasn’t until 2015 or so that you got back to break even. If you account for inflation it was almost or right at 2020 that you managed that. And that was through some serious money printing, not real value that was generated by corporations. It created the same malinvestment that we saw in the late 90’s and 2000 (pets.com or peapod.com for example). The Covid pump made it even worse. If you think AI isn’t following the same pattern as the dot com investment bubble I got news for you.

The big/smart money/c-level officers have been leaving the market for a year or more. That only leaves the retail investors, their fund managers (who want to make a commission), pension managers and CTAs (computer trading algorithms). It’s a big clue, along with the technical and economic data that were forecasting this, even if tariffs didn’t speed up the process.

The debt market is still the elephant in the room. Especially the use of debt to buy stocks, which is at a historically high level. When/if that goes sideways it’s going to be a first-class shitshow. The muni and junk bond market, holy hell…

It had recovered by 07 and fell again.

 

[lariat]

It had recovered by 07 and fell again.

Except when you account for inflation.

 

[SilentStalkr]

Some of you guys are funny…

 

[AZLong]

Well, I just made a pretty siginificant investment. I wish I could have bought more but am keeping some aside for more opp as I don’t think this is the end. It may pull back another half before it’s over. Regardless, the next few weeks, months, possibly years ain’t going to be for the week at heart.

I wasn't claiming money cannot be made. Just Donny's path to the land of milk and honey. Seems to be via severe economic pain for many.

 

[lariat]

I wasn't claiming money cannot be made. Just Donny's path to the land of milk and honey. Seems to be via severe economic pain for many.

You aren’t getting it. The tariffs don’t matter. It is what the consumer is willing to pay for any good or service. If it is too high they will move to secondary options. In the short term there will be an attempt to increase prices - it won’t work in this economic environment. The companies will have to take the margin squeeze. This has been going on for at least a year. Tariffs are not the cause of this, they haven’t even hit yet. Much of what we are seeing is now the backdraft hangover from the Covid stimulus, which also affected the amount of retail investor money hitting the stock market - that is Biden’s doing. Now that M2 is getting jiggy the results are fairly easy to predict.

Economic activity (velocity of money) is determined by money supply AND what people are willing to pay.

 

[Bigfatcock]

Bring on the deflation!

 

[lariat]

Bring on the deflation!

I get the sarcasm but Bro, no. You don’t want that. Disinflation yes.

 

[Bigfatcock]

I get the sarcasm but Bro, no. You don’t want that. Disinflation yes.

It wasn’t sarcasm.

 

[lariat]

It wasn’t sarcasm.

Deflation portends the literal destruction of the US economy and the reserve status of the USD. Yeah, I’m out on that at a macroeconomic level.

 

[Bigfatcock]

Deflation portends the literal destruction of the US economy and the reserve stays of the USD. Yeah, I’m out on that at a macroeconomic level.

Likely.

 

[Haney]

It's fun to watch the poors pretend.

 

[lariat]

Likely.

Yeah, that’s a national security issue. I’m out on that.

 

[AZLong]

You aren’t getting it. The tariffs don’t matter.

Actually, this proves YOU don't get it.

It is what the consumer is willing to pay for any good or service. If it is too high they will move to secondary options.

And those options are what? Please list all the US manufacturers of appliances, televisions, etc. There are none. The vast majority of semiconductors are made outside the US, they are in nearly every device you use.

In the short term there will be an attempt to increase prices - it won’t work in this economic environment.

An ATTEMPT??? Wow, you sure drank the Kool-Aid. There will be no choice but to raise prices. You think importers are just going to eat 25+%

The companies will have to take the margin squeeze.

Nobody can eat 25%

This has been going on for at least a year. Tariffs are not the cause of this, they haven’t even hit yet.

Why does every economist every where at every minute of the day blame tariffs for the market crash? That is what is being discussed, here.

Much of what we are seeing is now the backdraft hangover from the Covid stimulus, which also affected the amount of retail investor money hitting the stock market - that is Biden’s doing. Now that M2 is getting jiggy the results are fairly easy to predict.

Economic activity (velocity of money) is determined by money supply AND what people are willing to pay.

You are in a fantasy land.

 

[AZLong]

Deflation portends the literal destruction of the US economy and the reserve status of the USD. Yeah, I’m out on that at a macroeconomic level.

And that is the path Donny has us on. Bravo.

 

[NoDopes]

Wait, so a 30+% inflation over the last few years just sorta sucks but a -5% deflation is the end of the world as we know it? Not buying that at any price.

 

[steve123]

I pulled profit of $5500 on Bitcoin four years ago after 8 months of a $20,000 investment which got me started. Then bought metals which have increased, one quite a lot lately.

A friend told me in November to buy XRP crypto when it was .58 cents and I thought no I'm not sure I want to go the crypto route anymore because it's so volatile, but when he told me it was up to $3.00 a couple months ago I got interested. His $2000 turned into a nice amount of value if he sold it but he's just gonna hold it.

Two days ago I bought XRP/Ripple at $1.96 and it's up to $2.12. This crypto has utility because it's 1000 times faster and 1000 times cheaper to use than SWIFTCOIN for the space of digital funds transfer and XRP is constantly innovating into new ways to make transactions more efficient and soon ETF's will be made to sell. A bunch of financial experts believe it'll be the next Bitcoin and will be adopted by many banks, ect.

It's one of those things that one could put a 1% investment of your portfolio and it could be worth 10 times that in a year or two, or half as much, but I'm taking the chance.
Eh, look up XRP/RIPPLE because it's got a strong following and is staving off fear sentiment well compared to much the stock market.

I have no idea what I'm doing but have been pretty fortunate so far. Just the last few months I decided to try to learn more on investing but it's a slow process. Buy low and sell high?!, lol.

 

[lariat]

Actually, this proves YOU don't get it.



And those options are what? Please list all the US manufacturers of appliances, televisions, etc. There are none. The vast majority of semiconductors are made outside the US, they are in nearly every device you use.



An ATTEMPT??? Wow, you sure drank the Kool-Aid. There will be no choice but to raise prices. You think importers are just going to eat 25+%



Nobody can eat 25%



Why does every economist every where at every minute of the day blame tariffs for the market crash? That is what is being discussed, here.


You are in a fantasy land.

The consumer has been tapped out for a while. Raising prices isn’t going to cause them to spend. This isn’t hard to figure out. Corporations will have to lower prices to get customers to buy. They will either take the margin hit or not make sales. That’s the reality.

Dollar general, target, Wal-mart and others have already stated this in their earnings over the last three quarters. This has been in the works for a while, well before anything related to tariffs. It started in the Biden administration. The customer holds the key to everything. What we are looking at is a restructuring of pricing models and cessation of malinvestment along with the consumer’s overall proclivities for unnecessary purchases, which has been a long time coming. This has been and will continue to be reflected in stock prices moving forward. We aren’t getting out of the situation that was set up a long time ago. We are going into a recession.

 

[Bigfatcock]

Time to get some deals on some shit.

 

[Graywolf.260]

What’s your price point?

I have orders for nvda in at 85.15 and 76.25, we’ll see

 

[SilentStalkr]

I have orders for nvda in at 85.15 and 76.25, we’ll see

Went ahead and bought some Friday at $94 and some change. If it goes lower I’ll buy some more. This week gonna be interesting.

 

[culater]