... March - April dead cat bounce.. Decling on about a 30 degree slope for the past year.... You are validating my market decline prediction.-
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- Thread starter pmclaine
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... March - April dead cat bounce.. Decling on about a 30 degree slope for the past year.... You are validating my market decline prediction.
Yes... this was a heavy COVID play.
One big variable is that Musk can still walk away (with a 1B penalty). I’m sure everyone at Tesla is telling him to do just that. If it goes through TSLA is at huge risk with the way the deal seems to be structured on margin.
Thinking about it, one possibility is to short them both with a short TWTR stock/long TSLA put strategy. They both have big downside risk, tsla to the deal closing and TWTR to the deal falling apart. Short TWTR stock, with limited risk because it is capped at 54. Use the proceeds to buy puts on TSLA because it can move far either way. Not sure if this pencils out, do your own dd.
For Jack, this deal going through would be like getting his dick out of a vice. A publicly traded company with a 44B valuation can’t really be justified with the earnings projected (less than 1B and no clear plan to increase earnings). Jack doesn’t want to do the Zuckerberg kind of shit necessary for the market cap, Musk is his savior.
20-25% CAGR, high margins, disruptive innovation, and has always been a great experience when I have used the platform
Full disclosure.
I owned tdoc before today. I doubt I add to that.
But if you have money you don’t need and don’t mind losing you could by a little.
I think it’s more of a home run stock bet. But that’s how you get some of those 150% returns.
For me I would never miss the money that I have in there so I’ll let it ride.
New York (CNN)Federal agents arrested Archegos Capital Management founder Sung Kook "Bill" Hwang on Wednesday morning on fraud charges, roughly one year after the investment firm's spectacular meltdown sent shock waves through Wall Street.
Prosecutors are charging both Hwang and Patrick Halligan, the firm's chief financial officer, with racketeering conspiracy, securities fraud and wire fraud offenses as part of schemes allegedly designed to "unlawfully manipulate" the price of publicly traded securities.
The alleged fraud pumped the portfolio of Archegos, a family office, from $1.5 billion to a staggering $35 billion in the span of just one year, according to prosecutors.
www.cnn.com
Prosecutors are charging both Hwang and Patrick Halligan, the firm's chief financial officer, with racketeering conspiracy, securities fraud and wire fraud offenses as part of schemes allegedly designed to "unlawfully manipulate" the price of publicly traded securities.
The alleged fraud pumped the portfolio of Archegos, a family office, from $1.5 billion to a staggering $35 billion in the span of just one year, according to prosecutors.
Investment firm head arrested on charges of multibillion-dollar fraud and racketeering
Federal agents arrested Archegos Capital Management founder Sung Kook "Bill" Hwang on Wednesday morning on fraud charges, roughly one year after the investment firm's spectacular meltdown sent shock waves through Wall Street.
If Elon started selling Tesla shares as part of Twitter deal, we should find out tonight via Form 4. Tonight will provide more certainty what is driving the sale off.
The U.S. dollar index started in 1973, and today is a basket of six currencies—the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc. The euro is, by far, the largest component of the index, making up almost 58 percent (officially 57.6%) of the basket. The weights of the rest of the currencies in the index are—JPY (13.6%), GBP (11.9%), CAD (9.1%), SEK (4.2%), CHF (3.6%). During the 21st century, the index has reached a high of 121 during the tech boom and a low of 71 just prior to the Great Recession.
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Just goes to show how the "Propaganda of the USD" is influencing investors worldwide. If those very investors could come to America and spend some time with the "Man on Main Street" rather than listen to the "Man on Wall Street" They just might invest their funds in their own country's infrastructure and industries. Here are a few reasons why:
- Goods trade deficit increases 17.8% to $125.3 billion
- Goods imports jump 11.5%; exports increase 7.2%
- Retail inventories rise 2.0%; wholesale stocks up 2.3%
- Pending home sales fall 1.2% in March
JMHO
You could just look at what central banks are doing plus the macro environment to understand why the flight to USD.
We will be seeing this frequently. Here is where the "Little Guy" gets crushed.
O'Reilly Automotive Inc. down 10% over night... Look really close at the increase in volume over the last trading day. The insiders sold off in the 715 range.... The rest got left holding the bag with a 10% over night loss.
Beware
O'Reilly Automotive Inc. down 10% over night... Look really close at the increase in volume over the last trading day. The insiders sold off in the 715 range.... The rest got left holding the bag with a 10% over night loss.
Beware
it will be a great trade, assuming that Musk walks away from the twitter deal and accepts the 1B reaming before a cascade of margin calls starts eroding his collateral.
Anybody know anything about Baker Ave wealth management? They've been around for 18 years, but I can't find anything on them review wise on the internet except 1 unhappy customer from a year ago. Seems like a big red flag. They charge 1% fee to do technical trading management on your portfolio.
I was referred to them from my Fidelity account.
I was referred to them from my Fidelity account.
JMHO
There are some of the largest, most powerful corporations in the world taking some 10%, over night, hits.... In fairly stable markets this is not seen.... Call it what you want... Program trading, Earnings results, etc.... I call it panic or uncertainty. When that much money is lost or pulled out and side lined, it won't be coming back until stability returns. I remember in some bad years that a stock price would rise or fall with very little volume... Watch the volume, it will tell the tail. It means that so much money has been sidelined that a lot less money moves the share price.
ca.finance.yahoo.com
There are some of the largest, most powerful corporations in the world taking some 10%, over night, hits.... In fairly stable markets this is not seen.... Call it what you want... Program trading, Earnings results, etc.... I call it panic or uncertainty. When that much money is lost or pulled out and side lined, it won't be coming back until stability returns. I remember in some bad years that a stock price would rise or fall with very little volume... Watch the volume, it will tell the tail. It means that so much money has been sidelined that a lot less money moves the share price.
Amazon stock plunges after company issues disappointing revenue forecast
Amazon reported first-quarter results after market close on Thursday. Here were the main metrics from Amazon's report, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
ca.finance.yahoo.com
This isn’t like buying a yacht or some billionaire indulgence, he is hanging his ass on the line with serious cash for a an enterprise that doesn’t have great cash flow. I wonder how he is going to make it work, I predict that AI and Neuralink together with some next-level trolling will enter the picture soon. Musk is probably the most interesting person stomping on terra firma these days.
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did anyone notice how the stock market goes up a bunch right before payday, then drops like a rock right after? Our 401k get new investments every other Friday, the stock market goes up every other Thursday, and the markets crash the following Monday. Prove me wrong...it's a never ending cycle to FUCK us.
That cycle is "par for the course".... Happens with the DRIP's, ESOP's and every other buy that is completed on a certain predetermined day. Not saying it is right, just how it is.
Agreed.
I like the idea that he generated enough excitement to make the electric car segment viable because he could. He also re imagined why and how to get into space for far less than bloated NASA. And, maybe most importantly, I know a number of people living in very rural America that, for the first time, have viable internet access. In so many ways this materially improves peoples lives in forgotten, unserved, underserved communities.
One may fault him that he is not monetizing it as some might like. However, at least at this time, he seems to care more about achieving his vision regardless of the profit levels.
And certainly more fun to watch than the Kardashians.
Going to be interesting... he obviously deeply believes in his plan and end goal with Twitter. Cannot blame the guy given his success.
That stock moves so much. Taking profits and going back in at a lower price is never a bad call.
Generally speaking.
If you put the DXY on a 6 month chart, it is up only 7%... Nothing more than inflation.
I don't think that is the right way to read DXY. It's comparison of exchange rate against other currencies. Currently more people want dollars than those in the comparison basket. Not sure how inflation of USD would make other currencies less desirable on the exchange.
EDIT: here is the weights for DXY. The USD/YEN looks to be a large contributor for the DXY jump. But others are also losing against the dollar.
- Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight
- Japanese yen (JPY) 13.6% weight
- Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight
- Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight
- Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight
- Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight
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Are you stating the DXY is up because of inflation or not? That's where I'm confused. I was stating facts not a point of view/opinion. The reason DXY chart shows an increase is because of the other currencies are losing value to the dollar. That's what DXY measures factually. Why people desire dollars wasn't in my post.
It is not UP......... It is just not sinking as fast as the other's...... Smoke and mirrors.
An article out this morning "Warren Buffet and Berkshire outperform the Market".... Somewhat true but they both suffered big losses over the past month.... Similar to winning and event at the Special Olympics.
Very, very few safe places to put money since the first of the year.
JMHO
Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway are once again outperforming the stock market. Apple is one big reason but these other 10 stocks also helped
Berkshire has had an excellent 2022, while the broader market has floundered.
www.marketwatch.com
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It is factually up, because it's a measure of other currencies exchanges to the dollar. It's a fixed math formula. I feel like you're not reading what DXY measures. If you are trying to say the "true value" of the dollar is not up, it is for anyone outside the US trying to purchase our exports. They just became more expensive because the exchange rate changed, unless every company outside the US says they are changing their pricing/purchase to split any difference in the rate changes.
If your argument is DXY does not reflect the dollar value increasing compared to other currencies, you need to show some info where countries are increasing their export prices to erase and gains the dollar made in exchange rate.
Debates over exchange rates have been going on for a very, very long time.... It all depends which camp you are in. Appears we are in different camps.
Debates over Exchange Rates: Overview and Issues for Congress
Exchange rates are among the most important prices in the global economy. They affect the price of every country’s imports and exports,...
www.everycrsreport.com
Debates over exchange rates have been going on for a very, very long time.... It all depends which camp you are in. Appears we are in different camps.
Debates over Exchange Rates: Overview and Issues for Congress
Exchange rates are among the most important prices in the global economy. They affect the price of every country’s imports and exports,...
Currency manipulation has almost always been to increase dollar value compared to another countries currency. Some countries are intentionally setting their value lower to the dollar. China is the best example where they openly peg theirs so exports stay cheap. It's been about 1:6 usd/yuan for a long time, was 1:9 before that. You're claim that the USD does not have more purchasing power over lower valued currencies is the topic. To say the DXY does not reflect more buying power over lower valued currencies needs data to show this.
Your currency manipulation argument is backing up the dollar having more buying power of foreign goods when DXY rises.
I don't think there's anything to debate. If the dollar is down 10% relative to some "standard" (maybe it's a basket of commodities, maybe it's my gut feel) but other currencies are down 10% to the dollar, then the DXY will increase and we'll hear that "the dollar is up".
Well known names are pulling back
| VRSN | VeriSign, Inc. Common Stock | 19,879,128,693 | $181.14 | -27.28 | -13.09% |
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| AMZN | Amazon.com, Inc. Common Stock | 1,261,216,092,573 | $2480.0714 | -411.8586 | -14.24% |
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So what happened to the market yesterday?
I am a retired poor so I don't play the market, but appears that there was an adjustment?
I am a retired poor so I don't play the market, but appears that there was an adjustment?
The market is still within the normal swing of things……for now. Some have slipped well into bear markets while others are still within the normal. If we fall below 4100 on a close and stay there then expect more of a downward turn.
The above is worth what you paid for it.
You can go back to the OP in the posting titled "Recession - 2022" (Started Feb 1, 2022) and do some reading to get a better understanding of the situation.
A culmination of events are happening. Events that propaganda can't cover up.
Some factors:
The US Government has been paying people to stay home and not work
A FED Reserve that has a plan titled "Hope".
A President that is writing blank checks to big business and foreign governments.
The printing presses are running 24/7 printing out USD's
USA is a country with a "Service Economy", producing very little and now dependent on foreign countries for commodities
People got tired of working for ass holes, regardless of the pay.
An oppressive government stiffing commerce with Red Tape
Should I go on ?
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