I'm adding to positions I've held for numerous years, some are from the early 90's. Most all are established names paying above 3% dividends. I typically only buy companies who's products/services I rely on or those that have obvious advantages going forward in their sector.
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- Thread starter pmclaine
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I will never pay off my house...no need
The key is to always have the means to payoff your house. I have a 30 year fixed at 3%. That is free money pure and simple
I have said it before....liquidity is a gift ignore it at your own peril
A month ago or so on another thread I said that 2020 is going to be a year to make money. The Dow was 29330.
What is happening this week is a gift with BIG TITS. BIG TITS!!
My retirement accounts are 40% in bonds and they've been doing quite nicely with this latest sell off. Gonna be cashing in bond shares for equities here before long. Gonna wait another week or so before I start trading with plans to buy in smaller amounts on the way down as I suspect panic selling will continue as long as Chinese factories are shut down. Also looking at maxing out mine and the wife's Roth in the next week or two. Some great buying opportunities right now...
Doesn't make sense to pay off a house when you can use that same money to make greater returns elsewhere.
Yup there are a ton of people losing their shirts right now with short sightedness. My time horizon is 30 years and good companies with good balance sheets, proper use of leverage and proven dividend coverage don't concern me with a drop in share price b/c they keep on paying monthly or quarterly. I'm not focused on growth/momentum and have lived in the value space for 9 years now and seeing the prices the last week gave me a chance to take more bites was more than I thought we'd see this year. Was out shooting and hunting last night and received a nice surprise of a position filled on a preferred share I have been after for 10 months.....filled!
Christmas in February.....hope your week was filled with big big titties. Building dry powder for this correction started when the momentum stocks pushed us into the kind of multiple expansion that historically says 'time for a hair cut'. Didn't really see it happening until we were closer to November, but I'll take it!
Nice thing about it is that it really has nothing to do with the market unless you consider stretched, tenuous supply lines a market fundamental.
Im hoping nationally it means a few more domestic materials manufacturers.
Great point and if we learn nothing else from this event it's our dependence outside the borders is just too great.
Its a bad time to be investing in the market election years are dicey and the market has been high for years.
The highs at least have something to do with the market.
There isn't an avowed communist running the country.
There is a real effort to deregulate markets.
There is a real effort to remove some of the letter agency restrictions that stifle the market.
There is a real effort to actual achieve some equity in our trade policies.
The tax code has been changed to benefit the market.
Did prices exceed the actual policy changes - sure - but I think there is still a pent up boner.
This is a risky year.
The market is wondering are we going communist or will we continue as capatilists.
Big money Dem donors don't want communism. They want the crony capitalism that marked the Bill Clinton/Bush/Obama years. Keep paying the political party in power, donate to their pet causes as expected, get left alone to do what you want, have the senate make legislation that either excuses you from rules or will allow you to conduct business in a manner that increases your profit but fucks the country without censure.
Corona virus I predict will be forgotten about in two weeks. Election season really kicks off Wednesday and it will suck all the air out of the room.
Markets will watch to see if a communist is running.
The Dem party will be in disarray.
The markets will watch to see if the Dems fuck Bernie.
If they do they need to go to someone not on the current bench to run. None of the present candidates has a better chance than Bernie.
Will the country accept a "shadow candidate". The markets will watch to see.
Chamber of Commerce doesn't really want Trump but he is the lesser of two evils. They find Trumps desire to put the Country above business a bit distasteful but its better than nationalizing their businesses.
If Trump is elected there is upside for the market.
He will have the mandate to...
Unfuck health care - get that burden off the back of people that want to buy cars and boats instead of perscriptions.
Make middle class tax cut permanent.
Phase II trade deals.
Cutting Dept of Defense commitments overseas.
More border security eliminating the slave labor pool which should increase workers wages.
An infrastructure bill.
More business investment in country.
Hang the coup plotters.
We will have a responsibility too......expect to and demand to pay more for American goods. Support US manufacturing but demand durable quality. Currently we get cheap crap with expected cheap performance. Sell this as a "green new deal".
I bought an Otte Gear jacket this week. There shit looks like it has good features but their prices are huge. There shit is made in Corona Virus land. The too items of theirs I own were only purchased because they had a "sale" that put the gear at about 1/3 its retail cost. Anyway the multi cam softshell that arrived this week is labled as "Material made in USA, Assembled in Vietnam".
So we will pay an oil burning cargo ship two way travel for something as simple to make as a jacket? Where is the AOC outrage? Not only is the travel not green but the jacket was probably sewn by someone being paid food for labor, probably not in an ISO 9001 facility, probably under conditions OSHA would have a shit fit about and the factory probably dumps its waste into the Pacific.
Trumps policies are the only ones that may correct that providing better goods, better environment, and a better strategic footing.
There is only one way to achieve upside this year. Its a black and white election.
Expect violence. Buy more ammo.
That would be the smart long-term decision for a company which is sitting on $200 billion in cash and currently struggling with a fragile supply chain. But investors won't reward that with a temporary bump in the share price, so buybacks it is!
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That's only half the problem.
The bigger issue is that the leaders don't really mind China winning.
Special economic zones and Mao suits appeal to them.
Never happen...that ship has sailed. American labor is too costly. American environmental regulations are much too volatile and subject to the whim of the elected class which can change every 4 years. And what security is this that you speak. There is no security in the US...that ship has sailed as well. Travel has collapsed borders.
Supply chain stability and Asian reform to ensure that is an ongoing part of the global economy. China would never let that change and neither would the Donald.
Mitigation of risk is being established through the build of new manufacturing centers in places like Vietnam and other tier 2 Asian countries. Who knows...Putin might even try for a peace of the pie.
Our govt needs a manufacturer of strategically important electronic devices either as a means to secure IP or to prevent sabotage.
Crazy to let the fox keep the hens.
The leaders of our country care as much about this issue as does the voters. Judging by the shit that person is willing to buy if the price is right, the voters clearly don't give a shit. Some of us even doubled-down by making investments in companies that exported jobs, and donated to politicians who support "free trade". And then there are those of us who worked in management at companies who either bought parts from overseas suppliers to save money, or actively moved work to foreign factories.
Flat-out, we have only ourselves to blame.
If we're going to continue running a federal budget deficit of $1 trillion/year, I'd like a bit of that to go towards securing key strategic manufacturing competencies. Not holding my breath on that one.
Sorry for the following long response....
Not that I have a crystal ball. I actually got out of all equities in 2018. I took my profit and smiled. In my opinion, the market was being driven by emotion and nothing else. Almost like a rifle shooter who figures success is guaranteed by purchasing the most expensive equipment. The market fundamentals that everyone used historically to determine value, were useless and people continued to expect that fiscal policy would continue so that earnings would continue to grow and provide the continued increase in the price of equities.
I had built a portfolio that with minor changes to account for changes in monetary policy did a damn good job tracking the S&P 500. It made me an excellent return from 2016-2018. It actually outperformed the S&P by a visible amount. It actually began to work poorly after mid 2018. It didn't lose money but in no way did it track the S&P. I had no real recourse but to take my profit and sit on the sidelines until I figured it out. A few months ago I synthesized a different portfolio of ETFs that has been tracking well. Mind you, I have not invested real money. I just have been tracking its performance. I have felt that I have missed out on a lot of increase. The Dow hit 29300 at the end of January and I have been waiting for the correction. This portfolio dropped 8% over this week versus the 14% for the Dow. I am happy.
Most people believe corrections are fueled by some magical change in fiscal policy or government. It seldom has anything to do with any of it. The correction this week is a result of nothing more than the same HYPER sensitivity that has driven people to accept the bloated price to earnings that has been fueling the markets ridiculous valuation and drive. The virus pandemic is a realization that earnings will be affected. Investors aren't rationally determining revised price valuations. They are looking at the projected earnings drop through a magnifying glass and the resulting correction is as abnormal as the hyper growth that we have experiencing over the last two years.
It isn't over yet. I, for one, will be getting back in and will ride it up and get back out like I have done before.
Intuition is a great thing
Almost as good as a big pair of fucking tits....
I've worked in manufacturing for the past 25 years. The reasons you state above are excuses, nothing more.
I do agree that "the ship has sailed" to a large extent. We're getting to the point where a lot of manufacturing expertise is being lost simply due to retirement. Some industries haven't seen any fresh bodies come in for a couple of generations - and why would a bright kid enter a field that we clearly don't care about sustaining?
They are not excuses and I have run businesses for a long time. You are viewing this from the standpoint of being a widget-maker and not from the perspective of a businessman seeking to placate a Board of Directors with continued growth in earnings and profit.
The expertise that you speak of in terms of skilled individuals that are Tier 1 manufacturing engineers is gone and absent in our educational system...too easy for young kids in college to make way more money in other areas. How many people do you see graduating as "Manufacturing" engineers? What colleges even offer it as a curriculum. How many kids are going to vocational school to learn an honorable trade any longer. It is viewed in a negative way. That is why we are fucked and the ship has sailed.
American labor fucked itself MANY years ago. Much like how the economy got used to a dual income household. At first, it was amazing...now both people working is, essentially, required to have any type of lifestyle. The "I want this and that" union mentality fucked American labor. The Chinese want it WAY more. The Vietnamese even more so. And don't start on the quality. The Asians are actually better at it than we are. You just need to pay them more for it. I have seen a lot of top shelf, complex electronics coming from Asia. I'm not talking consumer electronics either.
You're making some really poor assumptions about my perspective and my experience. Although now I'm tempted to put down "widget maker" the next time I'm asked for my job title - it's a hell of a lot more honorable than some of the things I've been called.
Nice bounce, but still think there are more buying ops this year. Would be shocked if we didn't retest the lows.....keep dry powder on hand if ya can.
Old adage; "Republicans spend the dividends, Democrats spent the Capital", now they're broke, and they want to tax your dividends...
It's all just for the children; to send them all to Disneyland...
Every time I see Democrats out in force, it reminds me of Disneyland; perpetually oversold, with the constantly lingering scent of overloaded sewers.
Greg
It's all just for the children; to send them all to Disneyland...
Every time I see Democrats out in force, it reminds me of Disneyland; perpetually oversold, with the constantly lingering scent of overloaded sewers.
Greg
I have no doubts the days of qualified dividends are coming to a close......hopefully not b/f I die!
My first mortgage was 6.25, a rate I thought historically not bad.
I told myself if I could ever get below 5 that would be so cool.
Im at 3.25 now.
I know the sound idea of maintaining a mortgage and we will do so on the rental but I want the primary paid off.....the sooner the better.
You cant make this shit up...LoL.
Biden win gives Dow second best point gain ever
www.foxbusiness.com
Biden win gives Dow second best point gain ever
Biden win gives Dow second best point gain ever
2020 latest: Bloomberg bails leaving Biden, Bernie and Warren to duke it out.
This is a very astute summation. Not sure I agree with all of it, but well thought out sir.
So the S&P is up 67% since Nov 1 2016. Add in compounded dividends and it's chunk higher.
If you don't want to pick stocks, it's been a good ride.
If you don't want to pick stocks, it's been a good ride.
Looking for some December pull backs b/f legs higher hope to do some more buying b/f 2021 only have 1 more new position on wish list, but would like to add more to what I already own and like.
Preface, make no mistake, the election sucks.
That said, I feel pretty good about the S&P moving forward. I expect the gov't to print and spend, I think that will drive it like it has been.
I'm in about 80%, the remaining parked looking for something. Market looks expensive now, - but it has been looking expensive all along and keeps climbing.
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