Stock Market

[Bigfatcock]

Added to my crude short position. Don’t want to add more here. Would like it to go higher so I can end up with an average in the $130’s-$140’s.

I’ll come out and say it. I think all the analysts are wrong. I believe they are so removed from the reality of the situation, that they have no idea how broke as fuck the world is.

Price target is $100 oil by EOY.

This is not financial advice. I could get rekt, lol, but not that bad.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

LOL..... It took CAT long enough to have had enough.

https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-06-14/caterpillar-to-move-global-headquarters-to-texas

 

[Bigfatcock]

Damn, oil is dropping too fast. Didn’t get to build my full position!

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Damn, oil is dropping too fast. Didn’t get to build my full position!

It's just taking a breather on some different news. It is digesting.

Oil Supply Fears Mount As OPEC Underperforms | OilPrice.com

Despite weak demand in China, the oil market is looking increasingly bullish as OPEC fails to hit its production target and Libya struggles with supply disruptions

oilprice.com

 

[SilentStalkr]

Will someone get these fools out of office? I’m bleeding money over here.

 

[E. Bryant]

Will someone get these fools out of office? I’m bleeding money over here.

This is way past the point of fixing with political measures. Nature needs to run its course for a while.

 

[Bigfatcock]

Yeah, the world is pretty fucked. Short.

 

[Haney]

Will someone get these fools out of office? I’m bleeding money over here.

Sweet story bro , no fucking way you have any money .

 

[SilentStalkr]

Sweet story bro , no fucking way you have any money .

Had money!

 

[theLBC]

had the real estate agent over today. think i will sell while people (besides blackrock) still have any savings.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

had the real estate agent over today. think i will sell while people (besides blackrock) still have any savings.

Probably a good idea. At least it will give you a feel for where things are at..
Where are you headed ?

 

[SilentStalkr]

Ignorant statement , Troll.

I hope everyone involved is safe , thoughts are with you guys out there . I know the park area well , this is a bad situation .

Humor much?

had the real estate agent over today. think i will sell while people (besides blackrock) still have any savings.

Yeah, problem is, unless you got a second place or place to go, you’ll have to buy at inflated prices!

 

[S3th]

Humor much?

Yeah, problem is, unless you got a second place or place to go, you’ll have to buy at inflated prices!

Mortgage rates are currently at 6.25%-6.75%... and we aren't even close to stopping. Affordability is getting crushed, forcing more buyers into the smaller housing segments. Soon enough, all homes will start adjusting down to meet demand. Mortgage rates are likely to hit 8%+ by EOY.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

View attachment 7891434

Report: Volkswagen could sell more electric cars than Tesla by 2024

Volkswagen has been saying for years that it intends to, one day, sell more electric cars than Tesla. That could finally happen in 2024, according to a new report from Bloomberg Intelligence. Over the next few years, these two automakers will battle to be the leader in global electric vehicle...

www.cnn.com

 

[S3th]

Report: Volkswagen could sell more electric cars than Tesla by 2024

Volkswagen has been saying for years that it intends to, one day, sell more electric cars than Tesla. That could finally happen in 2024, according to a new report from Bloomberg Intelligence. Over the next few years, these two automakers will battle to be the leader in global electric vehicle...

www.cnn.com

I love Audi and would potentially grab an S5/RS5 Sportsback over a 3/Y. I digress... I doubt they will pass Tesla on fully electric vehicles by 2024. Nothing in the report is of substance and if anything, makes me more bullish on Tesla.

 

[SilentStalkr]

Mortgage rates are currently at 6.25%-6.75%... and we aren't even close to stopping. Affordability is getting crushed, forcing more buyers into the smaller housing segments. Soon enough, all homes will start adjusting down to meet demand. Mortgage rates are likely to hit 8%+ by EOY.

That’s what I’m saying. Not a good time to buy. Even if demand and prices come down rates will be high, as you stated. I don’t see a good buying opp any time soon.

 

[E. Bryant]

Cash buyers will soon find themselves in an attractive market.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

As China gears up, America is gearing down. A few lines from the article:
In the short term, China will continue to maximize the use of coal as it caters to its energy security, Chinese President Xi Jinping said in March.
The energy transition is a long process and China cannot just "slam the brakes" on coal, Xi noted.
In the global market turmoil brought about by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, China is prioritizing energy security to all other goals, including pledges to reduce emissions.

China Sets New Deep Sea Energy Exploration Records | OilPrice.com

China, in its attempt to ensure energy security, set two world records in deep-sea oil and gas exploration this weekend.

oilprice.com

 

[Inifinty]

 

[S3th]

Tesla's 10% staff cuts have kicked off, with ex-employees confirming on LinkedIn that they've been laid off

Insider reviewed 11 LinkedIn posts from Tesla staffers who said they'd been laid off as part of a mass cut of Tesla's salaried staff.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Tesla's 10% staff cuts have kicked off, with ex-employees confirming on LinkedIn that they've been laid off

Insider reviewed 11 LinkedIn posts from Tesla staffers who said they'd been laid off as part of a mass cut of Tesla's salaried staff.

www.businessinsider.com

A sign of the times....... I'd be more concerned with a Mega Corporation that was not cutting dead wood. The "Government" needs to engage in some wood cutting and reduce the head count by 50%........... Start with the 3 letter departments.

 

[Bigfatcock]

Oil short continues to do well.

 

[Graywolf.260]

Oil short continues to do well.

What about home builders, mortgage brokers, etc? Anybody have a favorite inverse ETF to short that industry?

 

[S3th]

As wait times continue to grow Tesla has yet again raised their new car prices!

Model 3 Long Range up $2000
Model Y Long Range up $3000
Model Y Performance up $2000
Model S Long Range up $5000
Model X Long Range up $6000

 

[Bigfatcock]

Cost to borrow is higher too.

 

[E. Bryant]

As wait times continue to grow Tesla has yet again raised their new car prices!

Model 3 Long Range up $2000
Model Y Long Range up $3000
Model Y Performance up $2000
Model S Long Range up $5000
Model X Long Range up $6000

It will be interesting to see how gross margin per unit changes. Historically, the auto industry has done a spectacular job at compressing the margins of suppliers (our contracts typical include yearly cost downs of 2-3%, inflation be damned). But that's not sustainable in the present environment.

On a somewhat-related sidenote, GM raised the base price of the 2023 Corvette... by a whopping 3.7%. That's shockingly low compared to the "official" inflation rate (much less the real rate), and shows what kind of pricing power the OEs wield over their suppliers.

 

[Bigfatcock]

It will be interesting to see how gross margin per unit changes. Historically, the auto industry has done a spectacular job at compressing the margins of suppliers (our contracts typical include yearly cost downs of 2-3%, inflation be damned). But that's not sustainable in the present environment.

On a somewhat-related sidenote, GM raised the base price of the 2023 Corvette... by a whopping 3.7%. That's shockingly low compared to the "official" inflation rate (much less the real rate), and shows what kind of pricing power the OEs wield over their suppliers.

Camaro is going up about 5% for the 2023 model.

 

[RUTGERS95]

What about home builders, mortgage brokers, etc? Anybody have a favorite inverse ETF to short that industry?

good call, agree, not aware of an etf that is the inverse

 

[theLBC]

Probably a good idea. At least it will give you a feel for where things are at..
Where are you headed ?

i think AZ or NV or even KY or TN. I have no clue, but AZ or NV will be closer for visits.
i need some good suggestions

 

[Bigfatcock]

NV went to commie shit once Sandoval left.

 

[SilentStalkr]

i think AZ or NV or even KY or TN. I have no clue, but AZ or NV will be closer for visits.
i need some good suggestions

TN

 

[eca7891]

i think AZ or NV or even KY or TN. I have no clue, but AZ or NV will be closer for visits.
i need some good suggestions

Out of those TN and KY isn’t bad. I would lean towards TN. no state income tax the last I checked.

Be warned the summers are oppressive unless you try to get some elevation in eastern Tn.

 

[eca7891]

This sure feels like capitulation…..

 

[Bigfatcock]

This sure feels like capitulation…..

Not even close. I don’t think we’ll see true capitulation until the S&P 500 hits around $325 where is was in October 2020.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

i think AZ or NV or even KY or TN. I have no clue, but AZ or NV will be closer for visits.
i need some good suggestions

I have some friends that were military for a long, long time. Recently retired out and bought a place in Kentucky / Tennessee area. Had a small homestead , sold it and working on a fixing up a larger one. Livestock, goats, chickens, large garden. Have a newer barn and all utilities, starting to build a house while living in an RV... Not a bad plan.

 

[E. Bryant]

Camaro is going up about 5% for the 2023 model.

If I were involved in supplying parts for that car (which I'm not), I'd probably be going back for price increases based upon the piss-poor sales. It's hard to make money when volumes are less than half of what was quoted.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

This sure feels like capitulation…..

I agree with BFC.... What we are seeing is "movement" in the Market. No one makes any money when a market runs flat. Like an old fashioned hand pump water well.... Up and down produces the product $$$. This is a game for the mega brokerages like Blackstone. Blackstone says they were not buying. I'm sure they are shorting and playing options on this downturn.

 

[RUTGERS95]

there won't be 20k dow, 2500 s&p etc as the central banks will stop that. Not that I agree with it but no way in hell. What I do find of interest is the euro region as everyone feasts off of German fiscal responsibility. I'm waiting for the spreads between italian and german bonds to explode and create a euro crisis as it should be. break them up, better for us

 

[Graywolf.260]

good call, agree, not aware of an etf that is the inverse

One is REK (aptly named)

 

[Bigfatcock]

Finally covered my final cruise line short. I believe there is more meat on the bone to short, but I’ve been holding my short since last year, lol.

The reason I believe there is more meat on the bone to short is because this recession following the scamdemic is going to be the final nail in the coffin. One of the big three will go bankrupt between CCL, RCL, and NCLH. Not sure which though. Will probably see some consolidation in the industry.

Still short oil.

 

[Blackcreek]

I've always been a dollar cost average kind of investor in mutual funds through 401k and Roth ira. Last fall and again early this year was the first time I've ever pulled back and put money into all cash for the short term.

What are your opinions on what the major index's will bottom out at. I think we will have 2-3 years of little to no real growth in the Dow and S&P 500 but I'm wondering what you guys think will be the bottom to get back in. I understand there will be potentially more to go down or possibly missing some returns going up by sitting out for awhile but things just looked real bad to me at the end of last year.

S&P 500 3000 +- 200 points ??
Dow 25,000 +- 1500 points ??
Nas 7,000 +- 500 points ??

 

[Bigfatcock]

I've always been a dollar cost average kind of investor in mutual funds through 401k and Roth ira. Last fall and again early this year was the first time I've ever pulled back and put money into all cash for the short term.

What are your opinions on what the major index's will bottom out at. I think we will have 2-3 years of little to no real growth in the Dow and S&P 500 but I'm wondering what you guys think will be the bottom to get back in. I understand there will be potentially more to go down or possibly missing some returns going up by sitting out for awhile but things just looked real bad to me at the end of last year.

S&P 500 3000 +- 200 points ??
Dow 25,000 +- 1500 points ??
Nas 7,000 +- 500 points ??

My opinion is I don’t care what they bottom at. I am not stopping my normal purchase schedule.

If I were trying to time a bottom on the S&P, I’d start scaling in around $330, and keep adding as it goes down.

This is not financial advice.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I've always been a dollar cost average kind of investor in mutual funds through 401k and Roth ira. Last fall and again early this year was the first time I've ever pulled back and put money into all cash for the short term.

What are your opinions on what the major index's will bottom out at. I think we will have 2-3 years of little to no real growth in the Dow and S&P 500 but I'm wondering what you guys think will be the bottom to get back in. I understand there will be potentially more to go down or possibly missing some returns going up by sitting out for awhile but things just looked real bad to me at the end of last year.

S&P 500 3000 +- 200 points ??
Dow 25,000 +- 1500 points ??
Nas 7,000 +- 500 points ??

NASDAQ has fallen from 16,000 to 10,500 in 8 months
DOW has fallen from 37,000 to 29,000 in 6 months
SP 500 has fallen from 4,800 to 3,666 in 6 months

I will look ahead to the end of the first quarter of 2023 (March / April)

NASDAQ - 5,000 (+/- 1,000)
DOW - 21,000 (+/- 500)
SP 500 - 2,500 (+/- 500)

I see nothing that will break the fall before the end of 2022. Possibly the $$$ printing presses will be shut off on 1/1/2023. That will result in a lot of re-shuffling the deck in the markets during the first quarter 2023.... Reality will set in and the long climb out of the hole will begin. Second and third quarter of 2023 will only be a plateau. Last quarter of 2023 will be the light at the end of the tunnel.

JMHO

 

[SilentStalkr]

Finally covered my final cruise line short. I believe there is more meat on the bone to short, but I’ve been holding my short since last year, lol.

The reason I believe there is more meat on the bone to short is because this recession following the scamdemic is going to be the final nail in the coffin. One of the big three will go bankrupt between CCL, RCL, and NCLH. Not sure which though. Will probably see some consolidation in the industry.

Still short oil.

I hope not! Im still holding some of those. And Norwegian has dropped like a rock!

 

[DIBBS]

Never did understand or care about bitcoin....

However I am guessing some investors likely took it in the shorts as a result of recent events.

Bitcoin drops as much as 17%, falling below $23,000 as $200 billion wiped off crypto market over the weekend

Factors including rampant inflation and an imminent interest rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve, along with an issue at Celsius, are behind the sell-off.

www.cnbc.com

Bitcoin has lost more than 50% of its value this year. Here's what you need to know

Bitcoin's recent plummet looks poised to continue. Here's what experts recommend investors keep in mind.

www.cnbc.com

 

[E. Bryant]

Maybe the LOLZ haven't yet begun?

 

[clcustom1911]

i think AZ or NV or even KY or TN. I have no clue, but AZ or NV will be closer for visits.
i need some good suggestions

Come be my neighbor in ultra conservative boomer central in Havasu . I'm the young-buck in town at 38

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Maybe the LOLZ haven't yet begun?

View attachment 7893265

Isn't it interesting when we hear this recession is totally different from other's... Until you bring it up on some comparison charts.

 

[theLBC]

Come be my neighbor in ultra conservative boomer central in Havasu . I'm the young-buck in town at 38

let me know if you have a realtor i should talk to...

 

[Bigfatcock]

Oil short and copper shorts going well. Waiting for $110 to cover half of my oil short.