Stock Market

[Hobo Hilton]

Markets will have to adjust​

Free money from the Fed was amazing for the stock market.
Zero percent interest rates depress government bond rates, essentially forcing investors to bet on riskier assets like stocks. (Wall Street even has an expression for this: TINA, which stands for "there is no alternative.")
Higher rates have been a major challenge for the stock market, which had become accustomed to -- if not addicted to -- easy money.
The ultimate impact to the stock market will depend on how fast the Fed raises interest rates -- and how the underlying economy and corporate profits perform going forward.
At a minimum, rate hikes mean the stock market will face more competition going forward from boring government bonds.

What the Fed rate hike means for you

Here's how higher rates will impact you

www.cnn.com

 

[S3th]

Likely a driver for the ENPH pop yesterday.

 

[S3th]

Enphase poised to make a new ATH. My second largest position.

 

[lariat]

Likely a driver for the ENPH pop yesterday.

View attachment 7921310

I find it hard to believe that this will actually occur the way they say. Just like all those "shovel ready" projects.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Apple's profit declines nearly 11%

Even the world's most valuable tech company isn't immune to the more challenging global economic climate.

www.cnn.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

AMZN Up 12%
INTC Down 10%
WTI - $101.40

No one... Not one expert predicted an open like this.
We are in an upside down world

 

[Clark]

I got AMZN for $10/share in 2001, after my little boy told me to.. he saw Bezos talking with Cavuto on fox news.

10 years ago my little boy had grown and was a software engineer at AMZN. I told him not to sell the stock options. He made his first million at age 29.

 

[S3th]

I have been slowly selling off ENPH in this rally. Currently +87% return on the whole position. I have only sold off 5% thus far... not sure how much I intend to sell due to taxes.

Even in this environment. with potential significant industry subsidizes, I don't see ENPH being able to jump from ~2.2B revenue to 5B next year. A lot of time to jump back in... hopefully at lower prices

My automatic brokers have ENPH positions as well but they are well above their allocation so no purchases being made there. If it continues to rally into the $300s I'll likely re-balance those positions back to 10%.

Also with July coming to an end, my NW is back at ATHs... taxable portfolio still needs about another 18%.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Watching the uncharted movements of the markets.
Markets have turned into the "Billionaire's Club". A Club player is playing with other people's money and has a risk tolerance of being able to loose 50% and never flinch. The traps are being set and once locked into a trap, there will be no way out.
The markets will close on a Friday or long weekend (for American's) and experience a catastrophic drop before they re-open. History will repeat.
JMHO

Dividend.com

Events that caused the New York Stock exchange to shut down

www.dividend.com

 

[S3th]

Really great video, esp. the first 4 minutes if short on time.

 

[S3th]

Tesla made a deal with the Mexican state of Nuevo León to get its own express lane at the U.S.-Mexico border. According to Bloomberg, Nuevo León is known for being one of the most 'pro-business' states in Mexico.

The dedicated lane is not for the use of individual Tesla car owners. Instead, it’s reserved for the electric car company’s suppliers as they travel between Mexico and Texas; Tesla has at least six suppliers in Nuevo León. The goal of the lane is to speed up their crossing at the Colombia Solidarity checkpoint.

Nuevo León's Economy Minister Ivan Rivas told Bloomberg that they want a ‘crossing that’s much more expedited and efficient. And maybe there will be a lane for other companies in the future like there is for Tesla.’

However, it looks like the lane will only work for southbound trips. U.S. Customs and Border Protection Public Affairs Officer Rick Pauza told TechCrunch, 'For northbound commercial trucks at the Colombia-Solidarity Bridge, currently there are only the regular cargo lanes and the Free and Secure Trade lane, which is for the exclusive use of companies that are enrolled in the CBP-Trade Partnership Against Terrorism program. There is no separate, dedicated lane for Tesla or any specific company.'

 

[S3th]

Oof, Ford is planning to slash as many as 8,000 jobs, mostly in the unit that builds gas-fueled vehicles, to help pay for the expansion of its electric vehicle offerings. The cuts, to begin this summer, would primarily affect salaried positions throughout the company but center in the internal combustion division, Bloomberg reported, citing anonymous sources. CEO James Farley has said staff reductions are needed to support production of EVs, such as the Mustang Mach-E, which are still losing money because of higher commodity and warranty costs.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Oof, Ford is planning to slash as many as 8,000 jobs, mostly in the unit that builds gas-fueled vehicles, to help pay for the expansion of its electric vehicle offerings. The cuts, to begin this summer, would primarily affect salaried positions throughout the company but center in the internal combustion division, Bloomberg reported, citing anonymous sources. CEO James Farley has said staff reductions are needed to support production of EVs, such as the Mustang Mach-E, which are still losing money because of higher commodity and warranty costs.

Remember........ They did build the Edsel.

 

[Vodoun daVinci]

Bought more Vanguard stuff July 1st with my Wife's Stash which she has held for years waiting for this month - 10% in VWUSX, 55% in VWELX and 35% in VTSAX. $120K - she made roughly $10K in July. Buy Low - Sell High. Still a lot of time to buy now as shit's still in the shitter....I'm gonna roll another $13K out of the 401K from the company I used to work for this month.

Just my perspective. I'm all about buying now.

VooDoo

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The trend is not changing:

Asian markets finished sharply lower today with shares in Hong Kong leading the region. The Hang Seng is down 2.36% while China's Shanghai Composite is off 2.26% and Japan's Nikkei 225 is lower by 1.42%.

 

[S3th]

Tesla is recycling batteries at roughly 50 a week in Nevada & scaling up.

 

[E. Bryant]

View attachment 7926580

Tesla is recycling batteries at roughly 50 a week in Nevada & scaling up.

LOLZ at the fact that someone got paid to make this diagram

 

[Hobo Hilton]

View attachment 7926580

Tesla is recycling batteries at roughly 50 a week in Nevada & scaling up.

Are those being installed in new cars ?

 

[S3th]

Are those being installed in new cars ?

raw materials being used to produce new batteries? yes

 

[Lightning8]

View attachment 7926580

Tesla is recycling batteries at roughly 50 a week in Nevada & scaling up.

Noteworthy that Tesla already has to recycle that many batteries.

 

[NoDopes]

Noteworthy that Tesla already has to recycle that many batteries.

Perhaps people are upgrading to high capacity batteries at a discount?
and/or their early software pushed the battery cycles to high/low which reduced the life. I remember reading a few years back they tweaked the limits on that to extend battery life. Overcharging, leaving batteries at high charge and draining too low greatly reduces their life.
Also, charging in cold weather damages them.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Perhaps people are upgrading to high capacity batteries at a discount?
and/or their early software pushed the battery cycles to high/low which reduced the life. I remember reading a few years back they tweaked the limits on that to extend battery life. Overcharging, leaving batteries at high charge and draining too low greatly reduces their life.
Also, charging in cold weather damages them.

And all those quotes about ampere / hours, length of life, cost per lifetime are studies done under "Optimal Conditions"...
Life is not offering optimal anything.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Yesterday, CNBC (Mad Money) Cramer was pumping DoorDash (DASH).
Could have bought it at the open for 84.16 and watch it sink during the day to close at 79.92....
Experts = No refund
LOL

 

[NoDopes]

You'll probably make more money shorting anything Cramer recommended

 

[Bigfatcock]

You'll probably make more money shorting anything Cramer recommended

Fact.

 

[Lightning8]

Oof, Ford is planning to slash as many as 8,000 jobs, mostly in the unit that builds gas-fueled vehicles, to help pay for the expansion of its electric vehicle offerings. The cuts, to begin this summer, would primarily affect salaried positions throughout the company but center in the internal combustion division, Bloomberg reported, citing anonymous sources. CEO James Farley has said staff reductions are needed to support production of EVs, such as the Mustang Mach-E, which are still losing money because of higher commodity and warranty costs.

European car companies started this - stating will not build ICE in future so slashing their ICE engineers, SMEs, etc. What could go wrong when very few people own/lease/drive EV yet we are already "burning the boats" of the ICE production capability. I bet there will be a huge market for ICE used cars for a very long time.

 

[devildog93]

European car companies started this - stating will not build ICE in future so slashing their ICE engineers, SMEs, etc. What could go wrong when very few people own/lease/drive EV yet we are already "burning the boats" of the ICE production capability. I bet there will be a huge market for ICE used cars for a very long time.

That, and I can imagine a little underground industry springing up of fabricators, cobblers, and redneck engineers cannibalizing cars and parts to keep things going like in Cuba. We are going to see a resurgence of ingenuity and outside the box thinking. The tables are going to flip on the importance hierarchy a bit. Suddenly guys who can farm and put things together are going to go up a few notches. Maybe we'll see country doctors again while the big cities fall apart. Even tragedies seem to have some good parts.

 

[pmclaine]

Here's what Cadillac's new $300,000 electric sedan will look like

The Celestiq marks a pivot for Cadillac into hand-built vehicles, which are typically reserved for high-end sports cars and uber-luxury models.

www.cnbc.com

Fucking ugly ass cars.

I loved the Seville of the 70s with its boxy ass look.

 

[pmclaine]

I think more highly of it than that, but it doesn't move the needle in any appreciable fashion.

The single biggest question about GM's potential for success in the EV marketplace has to do with its pickup truck architecture vis a vis that of Ford's, as well as the general acceptance of this propulsion technology by truck buyers. Almost everything else is noise absent some massive shift in buying habits.

GMs success is based on sucking government cock.

 

[pmclaine]

I’m not gay.

Why so defensive?

“Lady” “Protesteth” “Much”

 

[pmclaine]

Aren't these companies more "socially conscious"? Surely they will not have massive layoffs which will negatively impact their local communities? Can't they just cut into profits until things get better?

ESG is all the rage.

Companies are going to run on negative profit.

Crazy shit that I am one of two purchasers for a company making 100 plus mil a year.

Last year it was “License and registration please” now it’s trying to give a forward looking customer an outlook for 2023.

I am in the petroleum sector but not the part considered “petroleum”.

I think we will be collateral damage.

When all the “oil” industry has been killed our loss will be recognized only by the scarcity of Tupperware.

The world runs on oil and I am staring to think it is not a fossil fuel but a renewable resource and as granny decomposes into the soil she is my gas tank 4-5 weeks later.

 

[E. Bryant]

European car companies started this - stating will not build ICE in future so slashing their ICE engineers, SMEs, etc. What could go wrong when very few people own/lease/drive EV yet we are already "burning the boats" of the ICE production capability. I bet there will be a huge market for ICE used cars for a very long time.

Not to defend the industry's current EV mania, but even if "electrification" wasn't a thing, we'd be seeing a dramatic decrease in IC engine development activities just because we've reached such maturity that it's unreasonable to expect any significant improvements without significant advances in fuel quality, a rethink of the regulatory constraints, or a new paradigm in driving habits and/or what the customer is willing to pay for a new car.

I'm not claiming we've hit some first-principle limitation on BMEP, but we have bumped right up against what can be done with standard grades of pump gas, affordable materials, and the need to balance tailpipe emissions (particularly NOx) vs fuel economy. The advances in CAE and virtual prototyping have been responsible for most of this, optimization of control strategies account for the rest, and throwing more processor cycles at the design of a modern engine won't result in significant gains.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Not to defend the industry's current EV mania, but even if "electrification" wasn't a thing, we'd be seeing a dramatic decrease in IC engine development activities just because we've reached such maturity that it's unreasonable to expect any significant improvements without significant advances in fuel quality, a rethink of the regulatory constraints, or a new paradigm in driving habits and/or what the customer is willing to pay for a new car.

I'm not claiming we've hit some first-principle limitation on BMEP, but we have bumped right up against what can be done with standard grades of pump gas, affordable materials, and the need to balance tailpipe emissions (particularly NOx) vs fuel economy. The advances in CAE and virtual prototyping have been responsible for most of this, optimization of control strategies account for the rest, and throwing more processor cycles at the design of a modern engine won't result in significant gains.

What is the point of diminishing return?

The point of diminishing returns refers to a point after the optimal level of capacity is reached, where every added unit of production results in a smaller increase in output.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

raw materials being used to produce new batteries? yes

Tesla sets Aug 25 as trading day for three-for-one split shares

(Reuters) – Tesla Inc said on Friday trading in its three-for-one split shares will start on Aug. 25, after the electric vehicle maker’s shareholders approved...

www.oann.com

 

[S3th]

Tesla sets Aug 25 as trading day for three-for-one split shares

(Reuters) – Tesla Inc said on Friday trading in its three-for-one split shares will start on Aug. 25, after the electric vehicle maker’s shareholders approved...

www.oann.com

Nice I am going to be 3x richer... oh wait...

 

[CHEYTAC]

Not sure what impact this will have as if I did I would be retired by now
We were informed this week of a 14% energy rate increase in April and another 16% August 1 2023 , that’s right 30%
It may be negotiated down a bit but the fuel riders and solar burn will be severe on the East coast next year and moving forward
When you electric bill is already 6mill a year and goes up 30% in one year
It will have an effect!

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Not sure what impact this will have as if I did I would be retired by now
We were informed this week of a 14% energy rate increase in April and another 16% August 1 2023 , that’s right 30%
It may be negotiated down a bit but the fuel riders and solar burn will be severe on the East coast next year and moving forward
When you electric bill is already 6mill a year and goes up 30% in one year
It will have an effect!

Understood. Not seeing where a wood stove and firewood are the answer. Delivered firewood is 30% higher this year than last. If course, those with harvestable trees can fell and split they will do OK.
Propane, natural gas and the rest are about equal in BTU's / per cost.
My inflation is 20% +

 

[S3th]

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Reinsurance... Catastrophic loss for one man is a gold mine for another.
___________________

Berkshire nevertheless generated nearly $9.3 billion of operating profit, as gains from reinsurance and the BNSF railroad offset fresh losses at the Geico car insurer, where parts shortages and higher used vehicle prices boosted accident claims.

Berkshire Hathaway posts $43.8 billion loss as stock holdings tumble

The slide in U.S. stock prices punished Berkshire Hathaway Inc's bottom line in the second quarter, as the conglomerate run by billionaire Warren Buffett on Saturday reported a $43.8 billion loss.

www.reuters.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

That was a well executed Monday morning "Short Squeeze"... Any idea of how many stops were triggered by that one ?

 

[Hobo Hilton]

View attachment 7864512

What's Elon's plan ?

Musk sells Tesla stock worth $6.9 bln as possibility of forced Twitter deal rises

Tesla Inc Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk sold $6.9 billion worth of shares in the electric vehicle maker, saying the funds could be used to finance a potential Twitter deal if he loses a legal battle with the social media platform.

www.reuters.com

 

[Cardboard55]

Nobody except aspirin rappers and sportsball heroes are gonna spend $300k kor a Cadillac. Looks like a Chrysler 300. Bet it has spinners too. Maybe they generate wind power.

 

[Dewey7271]

Bought more Vanguard stuff July 1st with my Wife's Stash which she has held for years waiting for this month - 10% in VWUSX, 55% in VWELX and 35% in VTSAX. $120K - she made roughly $10K in July. Buy Low - Sell High. Still a lot of time to buy now as shit's still in the shitter....I'm gonna roll another $13K out of the 401K from the company I used to work for this month.

Just my perspective. I'm all about buying now.

VooDoo

Let me know how that works through Sep-Oct

Yesterday, CNBC (Mad Money) Cramer was pumping DoorDash (DASH).
Could have bought it at the open for 84.16 and watch it sink during the day to close at 79.92....
Experts = No refund
LOL

There’s a hedge fund shorts his recommendations, does pretty well

You’re probably in a B wave fwiw. Watch that downtrend line along with the percentage retracement.
if it takes out the downtrend convincingly then you’re ok. Otherwise you’re just bucking the trend and getting a bounce.
On the fundamentals side (which I really don’t care about) I’d love to see how an 8.5% inflation report is bullish.

 

[E. Bryant]

On the fundamentals side (which I really don’t care about) I’d love to see how an 8.5% inflation report is bullish.

No kidding. I don't think the fundamentals matter right now, which is going to set up a lot of people for a painful realization in the future.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

No kidding. I don't think the fundamentals matter right now, which is going to set up a lot of people for a painful realization in the future.

I think they are "kicking the can" towards the 2024 elections so they can blame it on the next president as Biden rides off into the sunset.
Seeing "Bait and Switch" at it's worst. Gas, food, inflation

 

[E. Bryant]

I think they are "kicking the can" towards the 2024 elections so they can blame it on the next president as Biden rides off into the sunset.
Seeing "Bait and Switch" at it's worst. Gas, food, inflation

I don't see any cans getting kicked that far. Past the midterms, maybe, if people keep failing for crap like "8.5% CPI ain't that bad!". But not for another 2+ years if the fundamentals are actually poor.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I don't see any cans getting kicked that far. Past the midterms, maybe, if people keep failing for crap like "8.5% CPI ain't that bad!". But not for another 2+ years if the fundamentals are actually poor.

IDK.. They keep falling for this...

Retirees on Social Security could see monthly benefit rise an average of $159 in 2023 due to inflation, estimate finds

High inflation points to a possible 9.6% Social Security cost-of-living adjustment in 2023, according to a new estimate based on data released on Wednesday.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Appearing the rest of the market basket countries are catching on to the weakness of the USD (DXY).. Down 1.09% today

 

[Graywolf.260]

Appearing the rest of the market basket countries are catching on to the weakness of the USD (DXY).. Down 1.09% today

If the fed rolls over like the market seems to be betting on, then the dollar has a long way to drop. Ironically this would be the time to buy stocks since future prices will be inflated.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I hope Disney thinks all these people will be working and not have time to sit in front of a TV.

Disney on Wednesday lowered its 2024 forecast for Disney+ to 215 million to 245 million subscribers, down 15 million on both the low end and high end of the company’s previous guidance.

Disney lowers longer-term forecast for Disney+ subscribers by 15 million

Disney lowered its Disney+ subscriber guidance to 215 million to 245 million by the end of fiscal 2024.

www.cnbc.com