Stock Market

[E. Bryant]

Japan's Nikkei index fell 2.66% today. It's now back to the same levels as Jan 1, 1991, and is still down 32% from its all-time high in Oct 1989

I don't think that 33-year bear markets are to be expected for US markets, but never forget that it's an impossibility. Someone who bought into the S&P 500 in Dec 1972 didn't see that same valuation until the summer of 1980, and it took another two years past that point to persistently stay above that value. That's 10 years of going completely sideways.

 

[KZP]

Lots of talk recently (from the talking heads and the FED Reserve) in regard to the strong US Dollar...
I see a lot of propaganda. To a working middle class bread winner, the strength of the USD means very little.
To an old retired guy on a fixed income, it really means nothing. I'm certainly not taking a few of my USD's and buying an item in a foreign country because my currency will buy a bit more than theirs.
After watching events of the past couple of years, how the USD stacks up against a market basket of currencies from a few other token countries carries no weight at all.

Here is an evening headline "The British pound plunged to a record low on Monday"...... So ?

Open for discussion.

Sterling hits record low against the dollar, as Asia-Pacific currencies also weaken

The British pound briefly plunged 4% to a record low against the dollar.

www.cnbc.com

U.S. Dollar Index - 43 Year Historical Chart

Interactive chart of historical data showing the broad price-adjusted U.S. dollar index published by the Federal Reserve. The index is adjusted for the aggregated home inflation rates of all included currencies. The price adjustment is especially important with our Asian and South American...

www.macrotrends.net

Some thoughts....If a few 1st world countries see a currency value collapse that is most likely going to cause financial effects in other countries, including the US. If certain debt payments due are forced to be converted to the stronger currency, the weaker country will have a much larger bill to pay. The pound was at 1.4:1 just a short time back, it's now about 1:1 and still losing value. That's a massive shift. The Euro & Yen are also making quick rapid declines.

Major & rapid valuation changes in financial instruments lead to exposing corruption in the books or poorly designed over leveraged positions. That's one part that makes it scary, we can see some factual aspects of trouble on the horizon as numbers change, but it's the unknown hidden problems that will surprise people causing even more rapid chaos when exposed. There is no way the global financial system is operating on 100% honesty. The big question is what high risk decision made prior that people count on as being "reliable" is waiting to be exposed.

IMO countries in todays environment are not completely isolated from another countries crisis. It's not good to see extreme rapid changes of confidence in currencies like this. If Japan, Europe or the UK currency goes the way of Zimbabwe then those countries will have no effective economy internally. That won't help us or other countries keep on a prosperous pathway.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Japan's Nikkei index fell 2.66% today. It's now back to the same levels as Jan 1, 1991, and is still down 32% from its all-time high in Oct 1989

I don't think that 33-year bear markets are to be expected for US markets, but never forget that it's an impossibility. Someone who bought into the S&P 500 in Dec 1972 didn't see that same valuation until the summer of 1980, and it took another two years past that point to persistently stay above that value. That's 10 years of going completely sideways.

When any situation "goes sideways" for an extended period, it becomes the new norm. Over the past two years events that were front page items have now dropped to the last page or fell off completely. No one seems concerned. Perhaps this is the "New Norm"... IDK

 

[MrSmith]

When any situation "goes sideways" for an extended period, it becomes the new norm. Over the past two years events that were front page items have now dropped to the last page or fell off completely. No one seems concerned. Perhaps this is the "New Norm"... IDK

Yes.

Thank you,
MrSmith

 

[Hobo Hilton]

A strong US dollar sounds good in headlines, but kinda sucks once someone comprends what it does to foreign trade balances. Look at the progress Asia made against the US during the 1980s as an example. It might not carry any meaning for a middle-class person at this moment, but it will once there's a shift of another few hundred billion dollars each year.

A related article below. I read the article and it gave me no insight as to the outcome... Almost a no win situation regardless of where the USD goes from here.

A surging U.S. dollar is creating an ‘untenable situation’ for the stock market, warns Morgan Stanley’s Wilson

Morgan Stanley’s Wilson said every 1% change in the Dollar Index has a negative 0.5% impact on S&P 500 earnings. He also saw an approximate 10% headwind to...

www.marketwatch.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Credit to the American Partisan
______________________________

This is called “normalcy bias” and it’s downright DANGEROUS. Normalcy Bias is why people wait too long to evacuate during hurricanes and fires, and its why people die when denying that a robbery or assault is happening. This 3,000-year-old Tactical Wisdom from the Bible proves it’s been going on forever:


then if anyone hears the trumpet but does not heed the warning and the sword comes and takes their life, their blood will be on their own head.


Ezekiel 33:4

TACTICAL WISDOM: It Will Just Be OK…. - American Partisan

originally appears on Tactical Wisdom and written by my friend […]

www.americanpartisan.org

 

[RUTGERS95]

Japan's Nikkei index fell 2.66% today. It's now back to the same levels as Jan 1, 1991, and is still down 32% from its all-time high in Oct 1989

I don't think that 33-year bear markets are to be expected for US markets, but never forget that it's an impossibility. Someone who bought into the S&P 500 in Dec 1972 didn't see that same valuation until the summer of 1980, and it took another two years past that point to persistently stay above that value. That's 10 years of going completely sideways.

means nothing as the bubble they experienced is unprecedented Imagine the royal grounds being worth more than the state of california for example as they occurred. Japan's nikkei should be much lower

 

[eca7891]

Credit to the American Partisan
______________________________

This is called “normalcy bias” and it’s downright DANGEROUS. Normalcy Bias is why people wait too long to evacuate during hurricanes and fires, and its why people die when denying that a robbery or assault is happening. This 3,000-year-old Tactical Wisdom from the Bible proves it’s been going on forever:


then if anyone hears the trumpet but does not heed the warning and the sword comes and takes their life, their blood will be on their own head.


Ezekiel 33:4

TACTICAL WISDOM: It Will Just Be OK…. - American Partisan

originally appears on Tactical Wisdom and written by my friend […]

www.americanpartisan.org

Reminds me of a post I made last week on some quotes.

Sit down, shut up and know your place.

I’ll guess 99% will comply if not more.

 

[E. Bryant]

A related article below. I read the article and it gave me no insight as to the outcome... Almost a no win situation regardless of where the USD goes from here.

A surging U.S. dollar is creating an ‘untenable situation’ for the stock market, warns Morgan Stanley’s Wilson

Morgan Stanley’s Wilson said every 1% change in the Dollar Index has a negative 0.5% impact on S&P 500 earnings. He also saw an approximate 10% headwind to...

www.marketwatch.com

That's pretty much it - if the dollar is strong it hurts domestic companies (and more so if they are exporters), and if it's weak then it'll likely become so difficult to sell bonds to finance the debt that it may become necessary to print until the dollar collapses. Hell of a conundrum. The Austrian/Mises crowd warned of this back when it was early enough to do something about it, but that was too early for the normies and now we're likely past the point of no return.

 

[KZP]

 

[Dewey7271]

Well, you’ll get your bounce this morning (it’s a trap by the way)
‘And for the ones loving the dollar rally:
https://news.yahoo.com/morgan-stanley-says-dollar-surge-112737044.html

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Well, you’ll get your bounce this morning (it’s a trap by the way)
‘And for the ones loving the dollar rally:
https://news.yahoo.com/morgan-stanley-says-dollar-surge-112737044.html

Tough to go against this trend:

The SPX

 

[Dewey7271]

Tough to go against this trend:
View attachment 7964638
The SPX

True and I don’t. (been positioning short since last October, mainly puts and LEAPS )
Just updating as one poster decided to “educate” me on the dollar the other day.
‘China‘s market made 10 year lows also a day or so ago.
We have a ways to go I believe.

 

[Dewey7271]

Yeah, that’s gonna work.

 

[Dewey7271]

Last sentence is the winner.


Home prices in July cooled at the fastest rate in the history of S&P Case-Shiller Index

Home prices continued to cool at a fast pace in July, though they're still higher than they were a year ago. Prices nationally rose 15.8% over July 2021, and while that is a wide gain, it was well below the 18.1% gain in the previous month, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices.

The 10-City composite rose 14.9% year over year, down from 17.4% in June. The 20-City composite gained 16.1%, down from 18.7% in the previous month. July's year-over-year gains were lower compared with June in each of the cities covered by the index.

"July's report reflects a forceful deceleration," wrote Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI in a release, noting the difference in the annual gains in June and July. "The -2.3% difference between those two monthly rates of gain is the largest deceleration in the history of the index."


From CNBC

 

[culater]

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Too little, too late from the Bank of England. Going to be painful, worldwide.
_____________

"It wouldn't be a huge surprise if another problem in the financial markets popped up before long. Either way, the downside risks to economic growth are growing."

Bank of England steps in to calm markets

The Bank says it will buy government bonds to prevent a "material risk to UK financial stability".

www.bbc.com

How Europe’s Energy Disaster Will Cripple the U.S. Economy

Europe’s vital Russian energy imports have ended. Brandon Smith of Alt-Market.us explains how this will fatally disrupt the global economy…

www.birchgold.com

 

[culater]

Too little, too late from the Bank of England. Going to be painful, worldwide.
_____________

"It wouldn't be a huge surprise if another problem in the financial markets popped up before long. Either way, the downside risks to economic growth are growing."

Bank of England steps in to calm markets

The Bank says it will buy government bonds to prevent a "material risk to UK financial stability".

www.bbc.com

How Europe’s Energy Disaster Will Cripple the U.S. Economy

Europe’s vital Russian energy imports have ended. Brandon Smith of Alt-Market.us explains how this will fatally disrupt the global economy…

www.birchgold.com

The Markets have shrugged of the BOE QE and are heading lower. Much LOWER.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I guess when you are playing with other people's money, there is not much risk to make a move like this:

Cathie Wood snaps up $32 million worth of Tesla shares after sell-off​

__________________
The difference a day makes... Down 6%+ in a few days
Edit:

TSLA

Tesla Inc

233.94

-15.5

-6.21

 

[Hobo Hilton]

What an embarrassment:
The Biden administration is preparing new export controls on semiconductors and the machines to make them, the latest push in its effort to deny China the ability to make the fastest, most cutting-edge circuitry possible, according to people familiar with the situation.

After years of educating the Chinese (an other's), financing their failing countries, fighting their wars, healing their sick, buying their junk they have overtaken America...

White House prepping new export restrictions for semiconductors

The Biden administration is preparing new export controls on semiconductors and the machines to make them, the latest push in its effort to deny China the...

www.marketwatch.com

 

[Graywolf.260]

What an embarrassment:
The Biden administration is preparing new export controls on semiconductors and the machines to make them, the latest push in its effort to deny China the ability to make the fastest, most cutting-edge circuitry possible, according to people familiar with the situation.

After years of educating the Chinese (an other's), financing their failing countries, fighting their wars, healing their sick, buying their junk they have overtaken America...

White House prepping new export restrictions for semiconductors

The Biden administration is preparing new export controls on semiconductors and the machines to make them, the latest push in its effort to deny China the...

www.marketwatch.com

Better late than never

 

[Hobo Hilton]

According to research posted this summer on the Social Science Research Network (SSRN), the internet leads investors to think they know more than they really do, and the resulting overconfidence in turn causes their portfolios to perform less well.

The internet is making you a worse investor

How the 'Google effect' affects retirement

www.marketwatch.com

 

[E. Bryant]

WHO DID THIS?!?

 

[E. Bryant]

There is substantial volume of cringe in this clip:

 

[scotty2hotty]

I guess when you are playing with other people's money, there is not much risk to make a move like this:

Cathie Wood snaps up $32 million worth of Tesla shares after sell-off​

__________________
The difference a day makes... Down 6%+ in a few days
Edit:

TSLA

Tesla Inc

233.94

-15.5

-6.21

Down tu $200 weee

 

[S3th]

I thought this thread was dead. I haven’t received any notifications in weeks lol.

 

[Bigfatcock]

There is substantial volume of cringe in this clip:

These people need a lesson on honoring stops, and having an exit strategy.

 

[E. Bryant]

I thought this thread was dead. I haven’t received any notifications in weeks lol.

I was getting concerned about you - welcome back! Looking forward to your perspective.

 

[Graywolf.260]

I was going to say it looks like treasuries are firming today, there may be a dead cat bounce coming but it looks like the bounce is already over

 

[Graywolf.260]

That's pretty much it - if the dollar is strong it hurts domestic companies (and more so if they are exporters), and if it's weak then it'll likely become so difficult to sell bonds to finance the debt that it may become necessary to print until the dollar collapses. Hell of a conundrum. The Austrian/Mises crowd warned of this back when it was early enough to do something about it, but that was too early for the normies and now we're likely past the point of no return.

One effect of the dollar surge is the opportunity to buy foreign assets/stocks at a discount (when the time is right). I am keeping an eye on Credit Suisse.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

One effect of the dollar surge is the opportunity to buy foreign assets/stocks at a discount (when the time is right). I am keeping an eye on Credit Suisse.

This shake out will go well into next year.... Keep your powder dry.

 

[rjacobs]

My old man was asking me why PM's were down and I said the dollar is WAY WAY up so nobody is buying precious metals.

Wait till the dollar crashes and PM's will rocket up.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

My old man was asking me why PM's were down and I said the dollar is WAY WAY up so nobody is buying precious metals.

Wait till the dollar crashes and PM's will rocket up.

Every day countries around the world buy gold. Some days they buy more than other days. They "Dollar Cost Average".

Top 10 Central Bank Gold Holdings (Updated 2022)

Global central banks own about one-fifth of all the gold ever mined, with reserves topping 35,500 metric tons (MT). They acquired the vast majority in the last decade, when they became net buyers of the metal.Central banks purchase gold for a number of reasons: to mitigate risk, to hedge against...

investingnews.com

What Is Dollar Cost Averaging?

Investing set amounts at regular intervals over time—also known as dollar cost averaging—can help you manage timing risk and stick to your long-term plan.

intelligent.schwab.com

 

[rjacobs]

Every day countries around the world buy gold. Some days they buy more than other days. They "Dollar Cost Average".

Thats not really my point...

In the USA when the dollar is strong PM's are typically down and vice versa. My dad was like "well with everything going to shit, I figured gold and silver would be on a tear"... nope because you can get good guaranteed returns from other things when the dollar is high. He's been buying TIPS all year and making 9% on 1 year TIPS...LOL

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I'm not a big fan of using the DXY (USD$) as an indicator. But comparing the USD to the S+P 500 it becomes obvious that these two have momentum to continue moving in opposite directions. Perhaps when they cross there will be a light at the end of the tunnel.... JMHO

 

[S3th]

I'm not a big fan of using the DXY (USD$) as an indicator. But comparing the USD to the S+P 500 it becomes obvious that these two have momentum to continue moving in opposite directions. Perhaps when they cross there will be a light at the end of the tunnel.... JMHO
View attachment 7975188

Of course. As America continues to raise rates faster than foreign central banks and Europe has threat of war the Dollar will continue to strengthen as a safe haven. Additionally, higher rates discount future cash flows significantly. Therefore, it’s expected that we will continue to see PE compression and valuations fall.

 

[S3th]

So... how low does the market go once nuclear WW3 kicks off?

 

[Graywolf.260]

So... how low does the market go once nuclear WW3 kicks off?

They will probably buy it up on hopes the fed will stop, nuclear pivot

 

[Hobo Hilton]

BlackRock profit falls 16% as market volatility spooks investors

(Reuters) -BlackRock Inc on Thursday posted a 16% drop in third-quarter profit as volatile global markets pressured fee income and sent assets under management further below the $10 trillion mark hit last year. The threat

www.oann.com

 

[E. Bryant]

So... how low does the market go once nuclear WW3 kicks off?

Given what we've seen during the pandemic, buy that dip. Cruise line and movie theater stocks should be a good choice, especially if you can coordinate a pump-and-dump on a popular message board.

 

[E. Bryant]

BlackRock profit falls 16% as market volatility spooks investors

(Reuters) -BlackRock Inc on Thursday posted a 16% drop in third-quarter profit as volatile global markets pressured fee income and sent assets under management further below the $10 trillion mark hit last year. The threat

www.oann.com

Assuming they're not playing fuck-fuck games, those results actually look pretty damn good.

 

[E. Bryant]

Ouch:

 

[S3th]

The only stock I am purchasing right now. (In my HSA, I did add to Tesla, Palantir, and Intel on Friday.)

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The only stock I am purchasing right now. (In my HSA, I did add to Tesla, Palantir, and Intel on Friday.)

View attachment 7977051

Interesting... Cathie Wood seemed a bit "anxious" after her last buy of TSLA last week... It's going to have to at least plateau for a month before anyone thinks it's going to simply "pop" up... What do your tea leaves say about the index funds, in general ?

 

[S3th]

Interesting... Cathie Wood seemed a bit "anxious" after her last buy of TSLA last week... It's going to have to at least plateau for a month before anyone thinks it's going to simply "pop" up... What do your tea leaves say about the index funds, in general ?

Earnings are going to come out soon. Depending on that financial picture a pop could happen. Especially if they are well capitalized and announce a share buyback. I think Tesla has a lot in the works to weather this environment better than other technology companies. The only risk to Tesla is demand falling off a cliff. Which, they have a lot of margin to play with to lower prices if needed to meet demand + EV incentives.

Indexs are going to continue to trade down until rate hikes stop. If a recession is "officially" announced and the FED stops hikes, could see a large upswing in the broader market.

I am also keeping my eye on my beloved Enphase. I sold about 15% of my position above $275. I'll be happy to start buying back in soon. But given how the stock trades, if I can grab for under $180, I'll be a happy camper. This whole Russian Ukraine war has started and will push the transition to renewables + LNGs much quicker. I think we may be seeing a 10-15 years increase in transition spend and demand as long as Europe doesn't go belly up haha.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Together, BlackRock and Vanguard own 18% of Fox, 16% of CBS, 13% of Comast — which owns NBC, MSNBC, CNBC, and the Sky media group, 12% of CNN, and 12% of Disney — which owns a number of subsidiaries.
According to Marketwatch, there is currently around $40 trillion in circulation around the world — which means BlackRock manages a quarter of the world’s money. Forget Tesla and Amazon and their eccentric, space-faring CEOs; BlackRock and its comparatively reclusive CEO are the biggest players on the global financial stage.

BlackRock is the Biggest Company You've Never Heard of - Innovation & Tech Today

BlackRock Inc. is the biggest company you’ve probably never heard of. BlackRock was formed by founder and CEO Larry Fink in 1988 in New York City as

innotechtoday.com

 

[S3th]

Tesla reports Q3 Earnings.

Q3 FCF of 3.3B with $2.2B increase to cash and cash eqv.

17.2% operation margin, 27.9% GAAP automotive margin.

Record energy storage deployments.

Will go to Board for authorization to repurchase $5B-$10B shares.

Just now diving in...

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Earnings are going to come out soon. Depending on that financial picture a pop could happen. Especially if they are well capitalized and announce a share buyback. I think Tesla has a lot in the works to weather this environment better than other technology companies. The only risk to Tesla is demand falling off a cliff. Which, they have a lot of margin to play with to lower prices if needed to meet demand + EV incentives.

Indexs are going to continue to trade down until rate hikes stop. If a recession is "officially" announced and the FED stops hikes, could see a large upswing in the broader market.

I am also keeping my eye on my beloved Enphase. I sold about 15% of my position above $275. I'll be happy to start buying back in soon. But given how the stock trades, if I can grab for under $180, I'll be a happy camper. This whole Russian Ukraine war has started and will push the transition to renewables + LNGs much quicker. I think we may be seeing a 10-15 years increase in transition spend and demand as long as Europe doesn't go belly up haha.

Tesla Inc. Chief Executive Elon Musk suggested the electric-vehicle maker could repurchase up to $10 billion worth of its stock Wednesday, as shares declined following a third-quarter revenue miss and his CFO brought down delivery expectations for the full year. He predicted that Tesla would be worth as much as the two most valuable companies in the world, Apple Inc. AAPL, +0.08% and Saudi Arabian Oil Co. 2222, +1.14%, combined. Both companies have market capitalizations topping $2 trillion.

Elon Musk teases massive Tesla stock buyback as CFO trims forecast for annual deliveries and stock falls

Tesla Inc. produced less revenue than expected despite record deliveries in the third quarter, but earnings beat analysts' estimates.

www.marketwatch.com

 

[S3th]

Tesla Inc. Chief Executive Elon Musk suggested the electric-vehicle maker could repurchase up to $10 billion worth of its stock Wednesday, as shares declined following a third-quarter revenue miss and his CFO brought down delivery expectations for the full year. He predicted that Tesla would be worth as much as the two most valuable companies in the world, Apple Inc. AAPL, +0.08% and Saudi Arabian Oil Co. 2222, +1.14%, combined. Both companies have market capitalizations topping $2 trillion.

Elon Musk teases massive Tesla stock buyback as CFO trims forecast for annual deliveries and stock falls

Tesla Inc. produced less revenue than expected despite record deliveries in the third quarter, but earnings beat analysts' estimates.

www.marketwatch.com

Without a doubt.

 

[E. Bryant]

If Tesla spends $5-10B on share repurchases instead of new factories, investment in product, and building out its supply chain, they're done with this whole "growth stock" story and become just another low-/mid-volume luxury manufacturer. I don't get this relentless pursuit of further share price increases when the stock has already priced in a bunch of miracles that aren't going to happen without boatloads of capital.