Stock Market

[E. Bryant]

That is not a convincing view point; every company can miss future earnings. Majority will have missed earnings and negative YoY growth in 2023.

Yes, every company can miss earnings, and so that's why most people look at either trailing earnings or some type of discount on forward earnings to account for risk. The arguments in favor of a higher share price for TSLA based upon forward PE don't ever seem to discount for risk; it's simply taken as granted that earning will automatically increase 50-100% next year and the PE will thus drop to a level that's supposedly too low at current valuations (despite still being much higher than any peer). This is speculation, no matter what past performance might suggest.

It's too early to say if this is a bump in the road or a bursting bubble. Given the ratio of whining to buying, Tesla bulls are showing signs that they're scared that the emperor has no clothes.

 

[S3th]

 

[Graywolf.260]

buy Japanese yen now and hold for at least a few months

Bank of Japan makes surprise policy tweak

The Bank of Japan has slightly loosened the shackles on its 10-year yield target and said it will review the operation of its yield-curve control policy, surprising financial markets and sending the yen sharply higher.

www.reuters.com

 

[S3th]

 

[E. Bryant]

"Sergio Statistic" I love it. How many investors recognize the reference?

 

[Hobo Hilton]

View attachment 8026713View attachment 8026712View attachment 8026714

Vanguard... Largest holder of TSLA stock....... I'm sure Vanguard is hoping 2023 will be an improvement over 2022.

 

[S3th]

 

[Hobo Hilton]

View attachment 8026809

"Small Longs"..... Translated to his view of 2023 - A "Definite Maybe". He is playing with other peoples money. Maybe even your money.

 

[E. Bryant]

Musk gets it:



His statement about "not guaranteed" should be noted.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Musk gets it:



His statement about "not guaranteed" should be noted.

Tesla sends Shanghai boss and aides to jumpstart US output

Tesla Inc's China chief Tom Zhu and a team of his reports has been brought in to troubleshoot production issues in the United States, fueling talk among colleagues he is being groomed for a bigger role at a time when Chief Executive Elon Musk has been distracted by Twitter.

www.reuters.com

 

[Graywolf.260]

Watch China now it’s a big experiment. We’ll see what happens with opening and Covid starts ripping through the huge poorly vaccinated population.

 

[NoDopes]

They'll just give everybody Ivermectin, just like India did.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Watch China now it’s a big experiment. We’ll see what happens with opening and Covid starts ripping through the huge poorly vaccinated population.

Well, there are 50,000 babies born each day in China. Replacements are plentiful.
Seems when I was in elementary school one lesson taught was that China could march an Army, 100 men wide, off of a cliff every day and never run out of replacements.

No, I did not fact check.

 

[S3th]

Musk gets it:



His statement about "not guaranteed" should be noted.

The true message

 

[E. Bryant]

The true message

At the time of the Twitter acq, TSLA had a trailing PE of 60+ and NDX had a PE of about 22. If Gary Black does not understand why those two would have a different response to the Fed target rate, then perhaps people should not take advice from him.

 

[S3th]

At the time of the Twitter acq, TSLA had a trailing PE of 60+ and NDX had a PE of about 22. If Gary Black does not understand why those two would have a different response to the Fed target rate, then perhaps people should not take advice from him.

As Gary said, if Tesla's performance was a direct result of the federal funds rate which Elon is blaming here, NDX would not be down 1%.

 

[E. Bryant]

As Gary said, if Tesla's performance was a direct result of the federal funds rate which Elon is blaming here, NDX would not be down 1%.

Why is Gary comparing two entirely different things? NASDAQ has an implied annual rate of return of a touch less than 4% and Tesla was around 1.3%. When discounting for forward risk and comparing to a Fed target rate of 4%, it should be obvious one of those was far more likely to make a big move.

None of this matters since Gary's just throwing dust in the air and pretending this is about "Twitter overhang", because it's an easier lift than it is to make an optimistic argument based upon fundamentals or technical analysis. About 61% of the drop from Tesla's 52wk high came before the Twitter acq, and Tesla started the first leg down from its ATH right around the same time that the NASDAQ and several other stocks rolled over in anticipation of Fed tightening, worsening macro conditions, etc. Tesla has dropped further than many peers, but that's most likely because it was propped up further on hopes and dreams.

In other news, oof:



For those who are not engineers, what you just heard is Elon declaring that Twitter needs to be torn down and then implicitly admitting that he doesn't know why this needs to happen because he can't provide even a high-level understanding of how the code is built beyond calling it a "crazy stack" (which is probably true from the perspective of a guy who doesn't write code). Trust me, this is far more damaging to his reputation than any collections of his comments that have annoyed the Left.

 

[Lightning8]

Well, there are 50,000 babies born each day in China. Replacements are plentiful.
Seems when I was in elementary school one lesson taught was that China could march an Army, 100 men wide, off of a cliff every day and never run out of replacements.

No, I did not fact check.

Not anymore. China has birth rate issues

 

[E. Bryant]

Not anymore. China has birth rate issues

Yep - China, Japan, South Korea, Russia, most of western Europe all will experience problems with shrinking populations. Combine this with natural resource shortages and it's not hard to imagine what sort of thing kicks off the next big mix-'em-up.

 

[S3th]

For those who are not engineers, what you just heard is Elon declaring that Twitter needs to be torn down and then implicitly admitting that he doesn't know why this needs to happen because he can't provide even a high-level understanding of how the code is built beyond calling it a "crazy stack" (which is probably true from the perspective of a guy who doesn't write code). Trust me, this is far more damaging to his reputation than any collections of his comments that have annoyed the Left.

When listening to the longer conversation, it seems like Elon has a pretty great understanding of the stack and server issues. But honestly, what do I know.

 

[atepointer]

Wow Tesla really starting to auger in now down 9.5% today on very large volume of 124m shares

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Wow Tesla really starting to auger in now down 9.5% today on very large volume of 124m shares

Figure out when the "Dead Cat Bounce" will happen.... Make 10% - 20% in a few days and then "Get the hell out of Dodge"..... Call it a good year.
Volume like never before.

 

[atepointer]

Figure out when the "Dead Cat Bounce" will happen.... Make 10% - 20% in a few days and then "Get the hell out of Dodge"..... Call it a good year.
Volume like never before.

No growth names for me I just took note as a couple of members on one of the subscription services I subscribe to who have been short Tesla were gloating and closed out today.

 

[atepointer]

Vol now 60m over avg day... this stock is going much lower coming soon ...

I don't know if it is or not. Interesting to watch the luster come off the EV climatopia world.

On the other end of the spectrum I added to EPD, ET, AM and MMP today. Midstream/LNG. The demise of fossil fuels is um....over exaggerated.

 

[Lightning8]

Wow Tesla really starting to auger in now down 9.5% today on very large volume of 124m shares

My fault. I bought some Tesla yesterday.

 

[atepointer]

My fault. I bought some Tesla yesterday.

That's a running joke on my text string of fellow self-managed portfolio pals.....'hey I'm getting ready to put an order in for XYZ so hold off if you are looking.....should go down 5% shortly'.

 

[S3th]

I am a kid in a candy shop catching falling knifes. I believe I have increased my Tesla position this week by probably 30%.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I am a kid in a candy shop catching falling knifes. I believe I have increased my Tesla position this week by probably 30%.

Reminder:
You have a wedding to pay for.

 

[Lightning8]

I am a kid in a candy shop catching falling knifes. I believe I have increased my Tesla position this week by probably 30%.

Is Tesla falling due to fundamentals or the new hate for all things Musk as he exposes the Democrats/MIC/DOD/FBI .....

 

[S3th]

Reminder:
You have a wedding to pay for.

I have the cash set aside but luckily have been cash flowing it. The total wedding should be around $4,000. We are keeping it to 60 people which is going to make many people upset but it is what it is. Her grandma and aunt and my mother will be making all of the food; which they have decided to pay for.

 

[S3th]

Is Tesla falling due to fundamentals or the new hate for all things Musk as he exposes the Democrats/MIC/DOD/FBI .....

Fundamentals, no. Fundamentals have never been better.

I believe macro is playing a much larger part than Twitter but Twitter is for sure not helping the situation. DCF and recession fears are weighing on profitability and growth expectations. I don't believe there has been much if any impact on brand value. & at the end of the day, I believe and continue to believe that Tesla is a long-term investment and that the market is a reflection of emotions. I believe Tesla is still at the starting line of its first s-curve.

 

[lariat]

MSN

 

[S3th]

MSN

Bullish

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I have the cash set aside but luckily have been cash flowing it. The total wedding should be around $4,000. We are keeping it to 60 people which is going to make many people upset but it is what it is. Her grandma and aunt and my mother will be making all of the food; which they have decided to pay for.

Grandma, Aunt and Mom.......... You got to love that Southern hospitality.
Who is boiling the crawfish / shrimp for the rehearsal dinner?.... Or will it be Jambalaya ?

 

[S3th]

Grandma, Aunt and Mom.......... You got to love that Southern hospitality.
Who is boiling the crawfish / shrimp for the rehearsal dinner?.... Or will it be Jambalaya ?
View attachment 8027515View attachment 8027519

I am thinking Jambalaya and fried Catfish.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I am thinking Jambalaya and fried Catfish.

Out of all of your "picks" during 2022...... The best one was picking a "Southern Girl".....

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Tesla short sellers have collected nearly $14 billion since Elon Musk agreed to buy Twitter, making Tesla the most profitable short of 2022

Tesla Inc. shares plunged to a fifth consecutive daily decline Thursday, adding more to short sellers' returns from betting against the electric-vehicle maker.

www.marketwatch.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

 

[atepointer]

I totally believe him this time! Elon is a rock and man of his word....probably, definitely and probably all in 2 sentences. Going to put the egg timer on the counter real quick...

• "I won't sell stock until I don't know probably two years from now. Definitely not next year under any circumstances and probably not the year thereafter," Musk said.

Tesla up 2% afterhours as CEO Elon Musk says he will pause share sales (NASDAQ:TSLA)

Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk said on Thursday he will not sell any more Tesla stock for about two years. While speaking in a Twitter Spaces audio chat, Musk said he...

seekingalpha.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

"Bring a Trailer"........ LOL......... That has been my plan of action for the past 55 years.... I have lost count....

Online car market Bring a Trailer closing out year with record $1.35 billion in sales

Online car market Bring a Trailer says a record $1.3 billion of cars were sold on its site this year as collectors took to buying classic and pre-owned cars.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Heading for the exit......

Equity funds suffer largest ever weekly outflows: BofA Global

Investors withdrew billions of dollars from equity funds at a record pace in the days after the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and European Central...

www.marketwatch.com

 

[Lightning8]

"Bring a Trailer"........ LOL......... That has been my plan of action for the past 55 years.... I have lost count....

Online car market Bring a Trailer closing out year with record $1.35 billion in sales

Online car market Bring a Trailer says a record $1.3 billion of cars were sold on its site this year as collectors took to buying classic and pre-owned cars.

www.cnbc.com

I have a 1970 Boss 302 - I watch BaT daily and it is amazing! I suspect that a number of high wealth individual have abandoned the stock market to invest/speculate in the collector car market

 

[Graywolf.260]

Heading for the exit......

Equity funds suffer largest ever weekly outflows: BofA Global

Investors withdrew billions of dollars from equity funds at a record pace in the days after the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and European Central...

www.marketwatch.com

Makes me feel better about buying a few stocks. But shorting China through YANG.

 

[E. Bryant]

As Gary said, if Tesla's performance was a direct result of the federal funds rate which Elon is blaming here, NDX would not be down 1%.

Gary Black's latest:



Things sure changed in the last 48 hours

BTW, if selling price drops 10% as he predicts, there is no way that margin drops only 2%.

 

[RUTGERS95]

I have a 1970 Boss 302 - I watch BaT daily and it is amazing! I suspect that a number of high wealth individual have abandoned the stock market to invest/speculate in the collector car market

pics!

 

[Graywolf.260]

A senior health official in Qingdao China reported half a million new covid cases today. The report was later retracted and the national health agency reported about 4100 cases for the entire country today with no new deaths.

Chinese city seeing half a million Covid cases a day – local health chief — Guardian US

The figures reported by Qingdao’s municipal health chief were in stark contrast to official statistics from the central government

apple.news

 

[E. Bryant]

A senior health official in Qingdao China reported half a million new covid cases today. The report was later retracted and the national health agency reported about 4100 cases for the entire country today with no new deaths.

Chinese city seeing half a million Covid cases a day – local health chief — Guardian US

The figures reported by Qingdao’s municipal health chief were in stark contrast to official statistics from the central government

apple.news

I read elsewhere an estimate that about 250 million have been infected in the last ten days. If true, then this wave of infection burns out by the Chinese New Year, and that removes a large overhang for 2023. Does this improve the supply chain enough that we'll generally see an end to various shortages and thus turn into a deflationary pressure, or will sometime else pop up to replace it, or was the impact of China's zero-Covid policy overstated all along? Only one way to find out.

 

[E. Bryant]

Consider this your occasional reminder that things can still get worse.

 

[Graywolf.260]

As

I read elsewhere an estimate that about 250 million have been infected in the last ten days. If true, then this wave of infection burns out by the Chinese New Year, and that removes a large overhang for 2023. Does this improve the supply chain enough that we'll generally see an end to various shortages and thus turn into a deflationary pressure, or will sometime else pop up to replace it, or was the impact of China's zero-Covid policy overstated all along? Only one way to find out.

This is a huge natural experiment, it could go extremely different ways. But short term at least I am betting that Chinese stocks retrace their recent gains.

 

[atepointer]

As

This is a huge natural experiment, it could go extremely different ways. But short term at least I am betting that Chinese stocks retrace their recent gains.

This will be interesting to follow: Tesla loyals say nothing to it, bears waiting to see Q4 numbers. Listening to a caller on FoxBiz yesterday something around 250k new wuflu cases last week alone. Got a hunch this is going to throw a hitch in the giddy up of everyone

Tesla halts production in Shanghai as part of year-end break (NASDAQ:TSLA)

Tesla (TSLA) suspended production at its Shanghai plant on Saturday, according to Reuters. Read more details on the Tesla production halt.

seekingalpha.com