Stock Market

[Hobo Hilton]

The IMF wants more American dollars.

The outlook for the global economy is for continued solid growth and declining inflation, bolstered by stronger-than-expected growth in the United States, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday. In its latest update of its World Economic Outlook, the IMF projected U.S. growth of 2.7% annual rate this year. That’s 0.6 percentage points higher than the forecast in January and 1.2 percentage points above the forecast last October.
The U.S. economy will then cool slightly to a 1.9% rate in 2025, the agency said.
“The strong recent performance of the United States reflects robust productivity and employment growth, but also strong demand in an economy that remains overheated,” said IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, in a blog post accompanying the report.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/imf-projects-sharply-stronger-growth-for-u-s-in-2024-95c2a2b1?mod=bnbh

 

[S3th]

Is Tesla still profitable due to carbon credit markets? Do they actually make money on the card they sell? It has always seemed to to be a Ponzi scheme to me. Elon may be being positioned to become the outsider that “saves” us all. Hint, those plans always end up being assfucking games.

If only Tesla’s financials were public.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

If only Tesla’s financials were public.

ARK’s Cathie Wood Keeps Buying Tesla Stock as It Falls​

 

[Malum Prohibitum]

ARK’s Cathie Wood Keeps Buying Tesla Stock as It Falls​

Why would anybody listen to her given her track record? She loses money and rakes in huge fees.

 

[S3th]

ARK’s Cathie Wood Keeps Buying Tesla Stock as It Falls​

Tesla is likely heading to $120 and under. Which of course will be a market overreaction and the inverse move will be nice.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Play of the Day. The market makers had this figured out last evening over dinner.
Double dipping.... Long on the way up and short on the way down.
Heading out for a 2 pm tee time at the golf course while the peon's jockey for a couple of hours of OT.

 

[Lightning8]

(Reuters) - Tesla shares fell to their lowest in more than a year on Thursday after Deutsche Bank raised concerns over the electric automaker's increasing focus on its autonomous vehicle products when profit is under pressure.

The Elon Musk-led company's shares fell 2.7% to $151.26 after the brokerage downgraded the stock to "Hold" and cut its price target to $123 from $189.

The brokerage's commentary follows Reuters report earlier this month that Tesla decided to cancel its long-promised inexpensive car that investors hoped would drive growth, while continuing to develop Robotaxis on the same vehicle platform.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

(Reuters) - Tesla shares fell to their lowest in more than a year on Thursday after Deutsche Bank raised concerns over the electric automaker's increasing focus on its autonomous vehicle products when profit is under pressure.

The Elon Musk-led company's shares fell 2.7% to $151.26 after the brokerage downgraded the stock to "Hold" and cut its price target to $123 from $189.

The brokerage's commentary follows Reuters report earlier this month that Tesla decided to cancel its long-promised inexpensive car that investors hoped would drive growth, while continuing to develop Robotaxis on the same vehicle platform.

Long ago a very reputable fund manager made this statement... "The industry of building cars is for third world countries". Why are we even building cars in America ? Look at what happened to Detroit. The industry simply relocated. Trying the same thing over and over again and hoping for a different result. This go round was financed by the US Government. Same thing happening to the chip industry. Over and over.

Elon Musk Is Begging Investors To Reinstate $56 Billion Bonus

A judge in Delaware, where Tesla is incorporated, determined in January that part-time CEO Elon Musk’s $56 billion compensation package was against the best interests of the company’s many investors, nullifying the “performance-based” award. The package, which was approved by the crony-packed...

autos.yahoo.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

A "Pull Back"... or... "A Top" ? The MSM is obviously not reporting on things that are of a concern to the working middle class.
Every day brings a new "diversion". History repeating with "Bread and Circus".

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Gold - 2418
WTI - 85.30

Futures down

Stock futures slip as S&P 500 heads for worst week since October: Live updates​

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/18/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

 

[isofahunter]

War is coming.

 

[S3th]

Going to be nice to transition out of SGOV back into equities. Getting juicy.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Going to be nice to transition out of SGOV back into equities. Getting juicy.

But the plane is still circling the airport... Wait for the soft landing.

LOL

 

[pmclaine]

Really @Hobo Hilton

You add a like to the OP first post?

I couldnt have been more wrong and totally blind to just how totally fucked up our political class is.

I totally failed to see the planned mayhem to come.

That was pre George Floyd and CV was something being reported on in the Daily Mail from Chyna.

I'm guessing that was a "sarcasm" like and I deserved it so.

I have absolutely none of that type optimism anymore. It has been thoroughly beat out of me never to return.

I don't even know what any of my 3 401Ks are doing. Moved at least 50% of my two main ones to bonds and that hasn't worked out because they propped up the big guy anyway.

Court in a week and best that could come out of that would be a prison sentence of sorts.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Really @Hobo Hilton

You add a like to the OP first post?

I couldnt have been more wrong and totally blind to just how totally fucked up our political class is.

I totally failed to see the planned mayhem to come.

That was pre George Floyd and CV was something being reported on in the Daily Mail from Chyna.

I'm guessing that was a "sarcasm" like and I deserved it so.

I have absolutely none of that type optimism anymore. It has been thoroughly beat out of me never to return.

I don't even know what any of my 3 401Ks are doing moved at least 50% of my two main ones to bonds and that hasn't worked out because they propped up the big guy anyway. Court in a week and best that could come out of that would be a prison sentence of sorts.

I did not do that as sarcasm.
It was to acknowledge you were correct. Your statement = My thoughts are that the market has needed a correction.
The markets did need a very large correction.
That did not happen. The results have been a bubble that has been inflated for 4 years.
Now look at where we are.
Sorry you took it wrong.

Hobo

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Tesla stock is no longer about cars, market, etc. - it is now about Elon and his leaning to the Right. Tesla will be punished for the sins of Elon.

Tesla recalls Cybertruck over ‘trapped pedal’ issue seen in owner’s viral TikTok video​

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/19/tesla-cybertruck-recalled-over-trapped-pedal-issue-seen-in-viral-video.html

 

[pmclaine]

I did not do that as sarcasm.
It was to acknowledge you were correct. Your statement = My thoughts are that the market has needed a correction.
The markets did need a very large correction.
That did not happen. The results have been a bubble that has been inflated for 4 years.
Now look at where we are.
Sorry you took it wrong.

Hobo

Au contraire my friend.

No offense taken.

I saw some humor in how wrong I had been.

I did not foresee the evil. I did not imagine that this evil would be done to the citizens but even more unreal was that America would take it.

The big let down has been how easily the America people go to their knees.

 

[S3th]

Bearish.

View attachment 8388935

Now I need to think about reentry strategy.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Now I need to think about reentry strategy.

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View attachment 8400670

Take your time, it's got a long way to fall. The traders will be playing the "pump and dump" for a few more months.
See what the new model year brings for the competition and how the clearance sales go during the fall.

 

[S3th]

Take your time, it's got a long way to fall. The traders will be playing the "pump and dump" for a few more months.
See what the new model year brings for the competition and how the clearance sales go during the fall.

I need metrics that trigger a repurchase % event. While I agree, the market does what it does and often leaves most behind

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I need metrics that trigger a repurchase % event. While I agree, the market does what it does and often leaves most behind

You and I just have different perspectives.
You see TSLA as a big fish in a little pond.
I see TSLA as a minnow in the ocean.
Right now that ocean is building up "The Perfect Storm".
We are all watching the barometers. They don't read out in metrics.

 

[S3th]

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Tesla has cut prices by nearly $2,000 across its models in China, after price cuts in the United States, as it grapples with falling sales and an intensifying price war for electric vehicles (EVs), especially against cheaper Chinese EVs.
Elon Musk’s EV maker cut the starting price of the revamped Model 3 in China by 14,000 yuan ($1,930) to 231,900 yuan, its official website showed on Sunday.
Tesla made similar cuts to the Model Y starting price, now 249,900 yuan, the regular version of the Model S to 684,900 yuan and the Model S Plaid to 814,900 yuan. The regular Model X now costs 724,900 yuan and its plaid variant 824,900 yuan.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/21/tesla-cuts-prices-nearly-2000-in-china-in-line-with-us-cuts.html

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I need metrics that trigger a repurchase % event. While I agree, the market does what it does and often leaves most behind

The "metrics" will appear after the Black Swan.

NEW YORK, April 22 (Reuters) - While U.S. financial markets debate the timing of interest rate cuts, one tail-risk hedge fund is warning that investors should make the most of recent economic optimism while it lasts, as a shift to lower rates will signal a dramatic market crash.
"This is a case of be careful what you wish for," said Mark Spitznagel, chief investment officer and founder of Universa, a $16 billion hedge fund specializing in risk mitigation against "black swan" events - unpredictable and high-impact drivers of market volatility.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/black-swan-hedge-fund-says-fed-rate-cuts-will-signal-market-crash-2024-04-22/

 

[Emerson0311]

The "metrics" will appear after the Black Swan.

NEW YORK, April 22 (Reuters) - While U.S. financial markets debate the timing of interest rate cuts, one tail-risk hedge fund is warning that investors should make the most of recent economic optimism while it lasts, as a shift to lower rates will signal a dramatic market crash.
"This is a case of be careful what you wish for," said Mark Spitznagel, chief investment officer and founder of Universa, a $16 billion hedge fund specializing in risk mitigation against "black swan" events - unpredictable and high-impact drivers of market volatility.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/black-swan-hedge-fund-says-fed-rate-cuts-will-signal-market-crash-2024-04-22/

So lower interest rates mean the powers that be have given up trying and walked away?

 

[Hobo Hilton]

So lower interest rates mean the powers that be have given up trying and walked away?

Not at all. Their investment bankers are "running the numbers" for them. Congressmen, their families and cronies will do well as the market reacts to lower rates. They will be well informed of any rate changes long before the public is. They are taking a page out of Pelosi's Play Book.
None will end up like Martha Stewart.

 

[S3th]

 

[S3th]

Sold $170 TSLA and $140 ENPH calls heading into earnings. OTM for roll protection.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Sold $170 TSLA and $140 ENPH calls heading into earnings. OTM for roll protection.

Box spread ?

 

[S3th]

Box spread ?

No outrights.

 

[S3th]

 

[Hobo Hilton]

View attachment 8403191View attachment 8403188View attachment 8403189View attachment 8403190View attachment 8403192

For autonomous to actually function, the highways and roads will have to be designed for the self driving vehicles.
America's highway system has fallen behind the rest of the industrialized countries.

 

[S3th]

For autonomous to actually function, the highways and roads will have to be designed for the self driving vehicles.
America's highway system has fallen behind the rest of the industrialized countries.

It functions today, overwhelmingly well on highways. You should go for a test drive.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

It functions today, overwhelmingly well on highways. You should go for a test drive.

Thank you for the offer. Perhaps after a trip in a Boeing 787 Dreamliner.

 

[NoDopes]

Tesla Soars: Misses Across The Board, But Is "Accelerating" Rollout Of "More Affordable Models" | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

S3, you sold calls into this?

 

[S3th]

Tesla Soars: Misses Across The Board, But Is "Accelerating" Rollout Of "More Affordable Models" | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

S3, you sold calls into this?

Yes. IV spiked so I sold calls with a strike of $170.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Up front, I am not a Jack Dorsey fan. Long ago, Jack is the guy who stole your info so a purchase receipt would magically show up in your email IN BOX. Jack has never backed anything with anything. Another Samuel Benjamin Bankman-Fried,

Jack Dorsey’s payments company, Block, is building its own bitcoin mining system​

Jack Dorsey says that his payments company, Block (formerly Square), is expanding its bitcoin
mining ambitions from designing chips to developing a full bitcoin mining system.
In a post on Tuesday, the global tech firm announced that it had finished the development of its own standalone three-nanometer bitcoin mining chip and was now in the process of working through the design with a “leading global semiconductor foundry.”
Block also unveiled plans to broaden out the scope of its mining project to include system design.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/23/block-formerly-square-building-its-own-bitcoin-mining-system.html

 

[Hobo Hilton]

This is exactly what the Chinese wanted to hear. Next Janet Yellen will be traveling to China to tell the Chinese to slow down their electric auto production.

The stock jumped in extended trading after CEO Elon Musk told investors that production of new affordable EV models could begin sooner than expected.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/23/tesla-tsla-earnings-q1-2024-.html

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The car’s most extraordinary feature, though, is its $9,698 price tag. That undercuts the average price of an American EV by more than $50,000, and is only a little more than a high-end Vespa scooter. Such aggressive pricing by BYD, which surpassed Tesla Inc. in late 2023 to become the world’s largest producer of electric vehicles , is indicative of how Chinese auto manufacturers will likely force US makers to pivot away from mainly producing expensive second cars for the affluent and toward more reasonably priced EVs for Everyman.

Cheap Chinese EVs Are Putting Pressure on Detroit

Plus: The US dollar’s role at the center of global finance is challenged.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Enphase’s stock slumps as outlook miss reflects solar’s ongoing struggles​

Alternative-energy company calls out ‘a further softening in U.S. demand’ that impacted first-quarter results​

 

[Hobo Hilton]

It functions today, overwhelmingly well on highways. You should go for a test drive.

Appears that Elon is not taking his competition seriously.


April 24 (Reuters) - A made-in-China electric vehicle will hit U.S. dealers this summer offering power and efficiency similar to the Tesla Model Y, the world's best-selling EV, but for about $8,000 less.
The EX30 from Volvo Cars (VOLCARb.ST)
, opens new tab, the Swedish luxury brand owned by China's Geely (GEELY.UL) , foreshadows the fierce competitive threat U.S. automakers could face from Chinese EV manufacturers that have surged far ahead of global rivals, especially on affordability.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/how-volvo-landed-cheap-chinese-ev-us-shores-trade-war-2024-04-24/

 

[S3th]

Appears that Elon is not taking his competition seriously.


April 24 (Reuters) - A made-in-China electric vehicle will hit U.S. dealers this summer offering power and efficiency similar to the Tesla Model Y, the world's best-selling EV, but for about $8,000 less.
The EX30 from Volvo Cars (VOLCARb.ST)
, opens new tab, the Swedish luxury brand owned by China's Geely (GEELY.UL) , foreshadows the fierce competitive threat U.S. automakers could face from Chinese EV manufacturers that have surged far ahead of global rivals, especially on affordability.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/how-volvo-landed-cheap-chinese-ev-us-shores-trade-war-2024-04-24/

There it is. The Model Y killer.

 

[S3th]

Sold $170 TSLA and $140 ENPH calls heading into earnings. OTM for roll protection.

Like clockwork, IV dropped off a cliff. Positive on Tesla calls with Enphase calls at 98% profit.

 

[Malum Prohibitum]

Cheap and unsafe EV sets back the image of Chinese cars in Europe by a decade

Automotive Sales Data and Statistics

www.goodcarbadcar.net

Quote:

“Basic safety equipment is completely missing, which becomes particularly evident in the crash test of an offset frontal collision at 64 km/h (40 mph). During this test, the driver’s head and chest hit the steering wheel hard, which in a real world crash would lead to very serious injuries. The passenger would suffer injuries to their knees and legs because of inadequate structural integrities in the dashboard. There are no driver or passenger front airbags nor side airbags in the seats, while the non-existent seat belt tensioners also had a negative impact.”

The pictures after the crash speak for themselves: the steering wheel has moved far into the cabin and the passenger cell has buckled in such a way that the driver’s door can no longer be opened. After the ADAC crash test, the fire brigade has to lend a hand to rescue occupants. In addition, the Suda does not have any protective devices with which the rescue workers can switch off the EV’s high-voltage system, which means rescue workers are at risk of electric shock. Both the hard to open doors and the risk of electric shock result in longer response times for emergency teams to rescue the occupants after a crash.

Even in braking and evasive tests, the Suda has no chance compared to other modern cars. From about 70 km/h (44 mph) the vehicle skidded out of control during the evasive test and could no longer be kept in check by the driver because it lacks an ESP system. Most modern cars with this technology will pass the test with over 90 km/h (56 mph) without breaking a sweat. The brake pedal lacks feedback and the very long braking distance of 42 meters on average from 100 km/h to full stop also does not exactly contribute to its safety record.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Cheap and unsafe EV sets back the image of Chinese cars in Europe by a decade

Automotive Sales Data and Statistics

www.goodcarbadcar.net

Quote:

“Basic safety equipment is completely missing, which becomes particularly evident in the crash test of an offset frontal collision at 64 km/h (40 mph). During this test, the driver’s head and chest hit the steering wheel hard, which in a real world crash would lead to very serious injuries. The passenger would suffer injuries to their knees and legs because of inadequate structural integrities in the dashboard. There are no driver or passenger front airbags nor side airbags in the seats, while the non-existent seat belt tensioners also had a negative impact.”

The pictures after the crash speak for themselves: the steering wheel has moved far into the cabin and the passenger cell has buckled in such a way that the driver’s door can no longer be opened. After the ADAC crash test, the fire brigade has to lend a hand to rescue occupants. In addition, the Suda does not have any protective devices with which the rescue workers can switch off the EV’s high-voltage system, which means rescue workers are at risk of electric shock. Both the hard to open doors and the risk of electric shock result in longer response times for emergency teams to rescue the occupants after a crash.

Even in braking and evasive tests, the Suda has no chance compared to other modern cars. From about 70 km/h (44 mph) the vehicle skidded out of control during the evasive test and could no longer be kept in check by the driver because it lacks an ESP system. Most modern cars with this technology will pass the test with over 90 km/h (56 mph) without breaking a sweat. The brake pedal lacks feedback and the very long braking distance of 42 meters on average from 100 km/h to full stop also does not exactly contribute to its safety record.

The American consumer does not care. they want "cheap"... Proven time and time again over the past 40 years. They have no "cash in hand" so financing with no money down will sell these cars. I'm sure we will see the "Buy Now Pay Later" programs also. Probably get one at Walmart in a few years with the BNPL plan.

 

[Bigfatcock]

The American consumer does not care. they want "cheap"... Proven time and time again over the past 40 years. They have no "cash in hand" so financing with no money down will sell these cars. I'm sure we will see the "Buy Now Pay Later" programs also. Probably get one at Walmart in a few years with the BNPL plan.

People are using buy now, pay later for necessities. You can use BNPL to door dash Burger King. You have said it before that credit/borrowing is keeping the wheels on the economy right now, and you're 100% right.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

People are using buy now, pay later for necessities. You can use BNPL to door dash Burger King. You have said it before that credit/borrowing is keeping the wheels on the economy right now, and you're 100% right.

You will understand this statement.

I hate it when I am right.

To those that don't know me, in the world of Heavy construction we always had to accept the consequences if something went wrong... That meant severe injury, death and a trip to the gate with a pink slip saying "FIRED". We automatically visualized the worst possible scenario and compensated for it. No, that did not mean we consulted the "Safety Man". It meant we took care of it before hand.
Today is "Before Hand". Take care of it.

 

[S3th]

 

[Lightning8]

Not a fan of any EVs including Ford. But I have noticed that all new car lots are overflowing with inventory. Between extremely high prices and high interest rates, I suspect that all car sales are down not just EVs.

 

[S3th]

Not a fan of any EVs including Ford. But I have noticed that all new car lots are overflowing with inventory. Between extremely high prices and high interest rates, I suspect that all car sales are down not just EVs.

You’d be right.