Stock Market

[Hobo Hilton]

A few words from the experts:

“I think this is the beginning of that long-awaited relief rally,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research. “It was waiting for some sort of a catalyst, and I think it got it from the Fed. Not only was it not more hawkish, but it said it would look to expedite the rate tightening,” said Stovall.

Alex Chaloff, co-head of investment strategies at Bernstein Private Wealth Management. “I want to say ‘Okay, everybody, we’re not dancing. We’re not there yet’ … We think we’re through the worst of it, but not all of it.”

Asian markets finished broadly higher today with shares in Japan leading the region. The Nikkei 225 is up 2.19% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng is up 2.06% and China's Shanghai Composite is up 0.59%.

“There will be no sudden ‘after’ of stagflation,” said Simon Baptist, global chief economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, referring to a surprise recession after a period of stagflation.

It does not appear that anyone wants to go out on a limb and say the recession has ended.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

S3th​

How a cheap component could help kill off combustion cars

Supplies of the auto part were choked by the war in Ukraine, which is home to a significant chunk of the world's production, with wire harnesses made there fitted in hundreds of thousands of new vehicles every year.

mintgenie.livemint.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

$TSLA is now trading at 69x annualized Q1 earnings. Almost cheaper than Amazon, on a PE basis.

Work from home isn't working

'Pretend to work somewhere else': Elon Musk reportedly tells Tesla staff working remotely is no longer an option

A leaked email purportedly from the Tesla CEO, said employees need to return to Tesla's offices, and not just any old convenient one either.

www.marketwatch.com

 

[S3th]

Work from home isn't working

'Pretend to work somewhere else': Elon Musk reportedly tells Tesla staff working remotely is no longer an option

A leaked email purportedly from the Tesla CEO, said employees need to return to Tesla's offices, and not just any old convenient one either.

www.marketwatch.com

If I was CEO of any capital intensive/production company I would also enforce the same. You are FP&A, great! Have an office in the giga factory so you can visit the factory floor. Etc.

 

[Lightning8]

"work from home" = wander around and do errands, go out to eat, shop, get haircuts, and on and on while on the clock. Saw it in Atlanta - used to be a defined rush hour in AM and PM then with "work remote" is became "rush hour" all the time

 

[W54/XM-388]

Just remember it was the Governments and the Big Corporations that demanded and FORCED the whole work from home thing that they are now denigrating.

 

[Bigfatcock]

I think work from home is awesome.

 

[Lightning8]

Need to start a separate "work remotely" thread

 

[S3th]

"work from home" = wander around and do errands, go out to eat, shop, get haircuts, and on and on while on the clock. Saw it in Atlanta - used to be a defined rush hour in AM and PM then with "work remote" is became "rush hour" all the time

If you can do these and outperform, why not?

 

[NoDopes]

Not sure how they measured it, but my (ex) company said productivity was WAY up when we went full WFH way back in Apr 2020.
In our case, I think in the office, everybody just stood around each others cubes talking. Even so, they mandated 2+ days/week back in the office for "team building". hahahaha.
My new job is full remote.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

If you can do these and outperform, why not?

Take a wild guess at what percent of American's can WFH and outperform.

 

[eca7891]

Jamie Dimom- “ A hurricane is heading towards the US economy. “

 

[S3th]

Take a wild guess at what percent of American's can WFH and outperform.

True.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

True.

Here's a chuckle for you... Let's me and you get together and take a walk through a "Super Walmart"... We will run some numbers in our head as to people that could WFH. Next we will visit a DMV in a Mega City and look at the employees there and guess at who could WFH. The way I am seeing it is most capable workers are already working at the company facility. The one's that WFH are putting out enough work so as to not be forced to go back to the office. Elon is calling the rest to get back to the office. America is 20% manufacturing and 80% service... Can't do much service from home.

In all fairness, there are exceptions to every rule.

 

[S3th]

Here's a chuckle for you... Let's me and you get together and take a walk through a "Super Walmart"... We will run some numbers in our head as to people that could WFH. Next we will visit a DMV in a Mega City and look at the employees there and guess at who could WFH. The way I am seeing it is most capable workers are already working at the company facility. The one's that WFH are putting out enough work so as to not be forced to go back to the office. Elon is calling the rest to get back to the office. America is 20% manufacturing and 80% service... Can't do much service from home.

In all fairness, there are exceptions to every rule.

Hahaha. I like WFH but also like the face-to-face exposure and "building my personal brand" I get while in the office. I cannot sit at a table with the CFO or VP of Finance working remotely.

 

[S3th]

HSBC UK is letting 35,000 staff lease EVs for up to four years and then opt to buy them outright.

A bank is letting 35,000 staff lease Teslas and hundreds of other electric cars as its latest perk

A bank is letting 35,000 staff lease Teslas and hundreds of other electric cars as its latest perk

africa.businessinsider.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

With $TSLA FCF of $10B in 2022 and $20B in 2023 — after CapExp for new gigafactories of $7B in 2022 and $8B in 2023 — stock buybacks of $5B in 2022 and $10B in 2023 are far superior to letting cash build on the balance sheet at 2-3% ROI.

Buybacks:

KHC / Kraft Heinz is taking a beating. Down 25% in two months... Way back on Nov. 19, 2021, they started buying back their own stock. Visionaries that saw this recession coming.

Insight Weekly: US stock market downturn; Chinese bank earnings; Europe's big tech bills

In this edition, we put the spotlight on U.S. equities. Rising bond yields and tightening financial conditions are driving the downturn in a stock market used to cheap money and ample liquidity.

www.spglobal.com

 

[S3th]

Didn’t even notice… Enphase back in the $200s

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Didn’t even notice… Enphase back in the $200s

Up 8% in one day.... I'd short it there and ride it down to 140.

 

[S3th]

Up 8% in one day.... I'd short it there and ride it down to 140.

I’ll sell again in the $220s if we see it.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

A question for you stock guy's.... Is McDonald's (MCD) in the service sector or the manufacturing sector ?

 

[S3th]

A question for you stock guy's.... Is McDonald's (MCD) in the service sector or the manufacturing sector ?

I thought it was a REIT.

 

[S3th]

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I thought it was a REIT.

So do a lot of other's.... I'm looking for those companies that the Government uses for an example when they say "production increased".... McD's does push a completed product out to their customer. But, when the customer leaves the fast food place the worker's clean up the mess left behind which is a "service".... REIT would mean every store front is a franchise and McD's owns the real estate only. So, where it McD's placed as far as a "sector" in the markets ?

 

[Hobo Hilton]

View attachment 7883418

So, name a few of the best performers..

Cash Return on Capital Invested (CROCI): What it is, How it Works

Cash return on capital invested (CROCI) is a formula that evaluates a company by comparing its cash return to its total equity.

www.investopedia.com

 

[NoDopes]

It only manufactures what it uses to service food. I don't think they sell outside their vertical. Thier food is cheap enough and "convenient". Do they take food stamps? Lol.
I don't think they'll be impacted much by recession.

 

[Graywolf.260]

Energy....obviously a tumultuous time in the energy economy. Long-term, an inevitable transition to non-carbon energy sources happens. So on a long term time frame I am pessimistic on the oil sector despite the short/medium-term spike and further potential upward-biased volatility largely from the Russian attack on Ukraine. Solar energy is now cheaper than carbon-based energy with obvious implications for the energy grid in Europe. EVs need some advances in battery technology but long term will largely replace and dominate the market. I have been accumulating BYDDF, not yet ready to buy TSLA. Natural gas is going to take longer for Europe to wean itself from, it's still used for lots of infrastructure and chemical production in Germany. Liquid natural gas imports from non-Russian sources are ramping up, and stocks like LNG and SRE have already surged. Other companies like TELL and NEXT are small and trying to borrow cash now to ramp up LNG production. I hold some TELL, it could be 10x higher in a couple years. Or bankrupt, depending on Russia's actions.

 

[S3th]

So, name a few of the best performers..

Cash Return on Capital Invested (CROCI): What it is, How it Works

Cash return on capital invested (CROCI) is a formula that evaluates a company by comparing its cash return to its total equity.

www.investopedia.com

Dependent upon what you qualify as "best performers"; Apple and Starbucks have great ROIC but aren't the "best".

 

[S3th]

Tesla AI Day pushed to September 30th as Elon believes they will have a working Optimus prototype by then.

 

[eca7891]

Tesla to cut 10% of staff and freeze hiring.

Elon Musk

 

[eca7891]

Energy....obviously a tumultuous time in the energy economy. Long-term, an inevitable transition to non-carbon energy sources happens. So on a long term time frame I am pessimistic on the oil sector despite the short/medium-term spike and further potential upward-biased volatility largely from the Russian attack on Ukraine. Solar energy is now cheaper than carbon-based energy with obvious implications for the energy grid in Europe. EVs need some advances in battery technology but long term will largely replace and dominate the market. I have been accumulating BYDDF, not yet ready to buy TSLA. Natural gas is going to take longer for Europe to wean itself from, it's still used for lots of infrastructure and chemical production in Germany. Liquid natural gas imports from non-Russian sources are ramping up, and stocks like LNG and SRE have already surged. Other companies like TELL and NEXT are small and trying to borrow cash now to ramp up LNG production. I hold some TELL, it could be 10x higher in a couple years. Or bankrupt, depending on Russia's actions.

I would not be pessimistic on big oil. Oil is used for much more than just fuel.

Big oil is transitioning into renewables. Take a look at BP and more recently EXXON, especially the new board members there.

It’s not all doom and gloom there.

If you are looking for a renewable utilities play you could check into NEE.

 

[S3th]

Tesla to cut 10% of staff and freeze hiring.

Elon Musk

Not sure if true as the leaked email hasn’t really been leaked for public view. At least I cannot find it. However, years of ramping and hiring people; a down economy would be an ideal time to weed out the bottom 10%.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Tesla to cut 10% of staff and freeze hiring.

Elon Musk

A "super bad feeling" is a whole lot worse than just a bad feeling.

Tesla shares drop after report Musk wants 10% job cuts amid “super bad feeling” about economy. Following a report Tesla is trying to force workers to return to the office or quit, another has surfaced over a potential hiring freeze.15 mins ago

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Not sure if true as the leaked email hasn’t really been leaked for public view. At least I cannot find it. However, years of ramping and hiring people; a down economy would be an ideal time to weed out the bottom 10%.

I have seen that move in the past 3 - 4 recessions. Certainly a good way to make the remaining employees "job scared"....
"Just doing my job" becomes the work ethic... Not very good incentive...
History repeating.

 

[S3th]

I have seen that move in the past 3 - 4 recessions. Certainly a good way to make the remaining employees "job scared"....
"Just doing my job" becomes the work ethic... Not very good incentive...
History repeating.

Except Tesla doesn’t have a hiring problem. Poor employees can be replaced in a day. This will help weed out those that want to WFH and not WFO.

 

[S3th]

May non-farm payrolls +390K, better than +320K consensus. Economy rolling along, seals odds that Fed will take +50bp hikes in June (6/15) and July (7/27). Avg hourly earnings MoM +0.3% vs +0.4%E, 5.2% YoY vs 5.2% E. 10yrTY 2.936% +2.2bp.

Was told yesterday, I have a promotion being reviewed by HR.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

May non-farm payrolls +390K, better than +320K consensus. Economy rolling along, seals odds that Fed will take +50bp hikes in June (6/15) and July (7/27). Avg hourly earnings MoM +0.3% vs +0.4%E, 5.2% YoY vs 5.2% E. 10yrTY 2.936% +2.2bp.

Was told yesterday, I have a promotion being reviewed by HR.

A promotion now would be a good thing.... "Show me the money!" Jerry Maguire

Here's a little tidbit buried in the report..... Retail jobs fell by 60,700, while government jobs rose by 57,000. ... Just what we need more "Government employees"... A wash

 

[S3th]

A promotion now would be a good thing.... "Show me the money!" Jerry Maguire

Here's a little tidbit buried in the report..... Retail jobs fell by 60,700, while government jobs rose by 57,000. ... Just what we need more "Government employees"... A wash

New government budgets just got approved, lol.

 

[RUTGERS95]

good discussion gents

most companies could cut the bottom 10% and not even feel it other than better balance sheet dynamics

 

[Hobo Hilton]

New government budgets just got approved, lol.

Icing on the cake

 

[RUTGERS95]

A promotion now would be a good thing.... "Show me the money!" Jerry Maguire

Here's a little tidbit buried in the report..... Retail jobs fell by 60,700, while government jobs rose by 57,000. ... Just what we need more "Government employees"... A wash

we need less government! why can't people see this??????????

 

[Hobo Hilton]

good discussion gents

most companies could cut the bottom 10% and not even feel it other than better balance sheet dynamics

I agree.... Unfortunately that 10% ends up being a burden on the working middle class..........
Stopping the flow of Free Government money is going to be the quickest route out of this recession... Everything else is just prolonging the crash.

 

[eca7891]

OKTA is skyrocketing

 

[Hobo Hilton]

OKTA is skyrocketing

Amazing what happens when a company gives a "hiked outlook"..... Those that shorted OKTA last November have made out like a bandit. Pump and dump. We will see a lot more of that this year.

 

[E. Bryant]

good discussion gents

most companies could cut the bottom 10% and not even feel it other than better balance sheet dynamics

True for most companies, but for a "growth" company that will supposedly be growing sales by 10-15x over the next five years, it kinda undercuts the narrative.

 

[Lightning8]

A "super bad feeling" is a whole lot worse than just a bad feeling.

Tesla shares drop after report Musk wants 10% job cuts amid “super bad feeling” about economy. Following a report Tesla is trying to force workers to return to the office or quit, another has surfaced over a potential hiring freeze.15 mins ago

Corporations are realizing post-COVID with remote work that they can do more with less and cutting headcount. If they can work remote from US they can work remote from India or Brazil so why pay US salaries and benefits.

 

[RUTGERS95]

True for most companies, but for a "growth" company that will supposedly be growing sales by 10-15x over the next five years, it kinda undercuts the narrative.

nope

forget what you've read in books here. Every company could 10% of staff and not lose any efficiencies. Most of that loss is at middle management

Corporations are realizing post-COVID with remote work that they can do more with less and cutting headcount. If they can work remote from US they can work remote from India or Brazil so why pay US salaries and benefits.

definite truth here

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Corporations are realizing post-COVID with remote work that they can do more with less and cutting headcount. If they can work remote from US they can work remote from India or Brazil so why pay US salaries and benefits.

Corporations have and will always make a few bad decisions... It's just business. A lot of things in business is nothing more than trial and error. Years ago, when I got a tech support person who could not speak English, I stopped doing business with that company. I was not the only one. support centers came back to America...
American's are getting fed up with the dealings of foreign countries... A lot of that comes from our politicians and their under the table dealings.
In all fairness, I know many Americans who relocated to foriegn countries and live like a king on $1,000 / month... Corporations are doing the same thing... So, what will be left when the Patriots and Big Corporations leave ?

 

[Hobo Hilton]

This morning Elon gave a very honest opinion of what he sees in the future for the economy. I like what he said.

He was rewarded with nothing but criticism from people who don't know what day it is, much less what the Man on Main Street is dealing with. Big Business leaders said Elon was wrong, etc.

TSLA stock was down 9.22%. The people who did not like what he said beat up the TSLA stock... Monday morning they will be buying it back....

This administration, this market and the people of America remind me of a covey of quail being flushed.... Lots of noise, feather's flying and bodies going in every direction. Like people, the quail fly 20 yards, land and run back under a pile of brush so they can feel secure.... The Downfall continues...

Biden dismisses Elon Musk’s ‘super bad feeling’ about economy,​

 

[Hobo Hilton]

As we close out the work week here in America:

oil (wti)​

+2.44%
120.41

That is a bit concerning. The rest of the world will be trading and moving oil while we take a break. It's anybody's guess where we will be on Monday morning.