The OFFICIAL 'Wuhan' Coronavirus outbreak information and tracking thread. NARRATIVE CHANGE. "Endemic, just like the cold". Cuomo regrets lockdown.

[BytorJr]

I wonder what other border could use a wall to reduce the spread of illness?

R

hmmm...wow...a wall...a wall to keep people OUT? Who thought of this concept? Please explain, my brain exploded.

 

[McReef]

Running at 100% eliminates the ability to react to seasonal illnesses or epidemics. But let's do the math.

If the average person lives 80 years and spends 8 days in the hospital (I think this is low), that's 1/10 of a day per year. That's more than 100,000,000 bed days, divide by 365 days a year, that's about 300,000 beds needed to run at 100% or more. Finding 4,500 beds is a 1.5% increase (or much less).

Of course I don't believe they run at 100%. That is a pretty unrealistic even for a landlord, everyone needs housing and except for things like college towns and vacation rentals, there isn't much fluctuation in demand and landlords like to run at 95% or more.

For practicality, hospitals probably shoot for 80-85% so they can rotate patients a bit while they clean things. That probably means there are 30-45,000 empty beds in China when things are normal.

Now they are literally doing a Chinese fire drill to build extra beds.

The response just doesn't match their numbers.

I see what you are saying. My comment was not meant to be read literally or as a de facto statement of how it is done. A hospital is a place of business, and is normally run as such. Maximize profits, minimize waste. It’s not about being ready for a big pandemic, hell, on a management level, it’s not even about helping sick/hurt people, it’s about making the best possible profit while staying within regulatory requirements.

A couple of counterpoints though for the sake of discussion...

- I think having a small amount of “excess” for rotation and cleaning purposes probably shouldn’t be considered excess at all. That must be calculated as part of your capacity numbers. If, as a hospital you are not doing this, it’s going to show up in your outcomes I would think.

- Previous unexpected and extended hospital stays have unfortunately afforded me the opportunity to get a little feel for (anecdotally) what this runs like, at least in my area...
- Emergency rooms run well over capacity in my experience, and that is outside of flu season. In a serious outbreak our ER’s would present an enormous bottleneck.
- Multiple inpatient experiences on every occasion required some considerable apparent effort on the part of staff to secure a bed. Maybe I was just lucky? Four separate times? Maybe...

Some quick googling seems to indicate that official average occupancy rates (from 2014) in the US was somewhere around 60-70% in and around cities. Call me a skeptic, but that sounds like a load of horse shit to me.

In my nearest urban center (something like 3/4m people), the largest and most respected hospital boasts 1000 beds. That’s it. The best I can determine, that city, with that population, has a total of less than 7500 beds. If we use a conservative (and probably bs) 60% occupancy for that, you end up with a potential of 3000 free beds, for a city of something like 750,000. That means, if only 1% of the population were to get sick enough to require hospitalization, they’d be 4500 beds short.

Even if I’ve missed something big, and grossly underestimated capacity, and they actually have twice as many beds as I thought, that is still not enough to handle even that 1%.

Again, it may very well be that none of this applies to China at all, but I suspect the same motivations push management there as they do here.

 

[Middle Man]

Wuhan...woo haa...nefarious earworm

 

[uffduh]

Damn, you are brave, man... I would never. Not just no but HELL fucking no. Not because of any perceived "icky" factor or anything, but bats are known vectors of many zoonotic pathogens that are extremely dangerous to humans. Rabies is one of them. Ebola and it's Latin American counterpart, Lassa hemorrhagic fever, are both known to have substantial host pools in the bat population. Many other fatal viral outbreaks in history can be attributed to bat-human transmission.

Oh, now you tell him!!!!
I’m with you though, seafood, the freakier the better. If it has fur on it when it hits the plate, all yours

 

[flyer]

I see what you are saying. My comment was not meant to be read literally or as a de facto statement of how it is done. A hospital is a place of business, and is normally run as such. Maximize profits, minimize waste. It’s not about being ready for a big pandemic, hell, on a management level, it’s not even about helping sick/hurt people, it’s about making the best possible profit while staying within regulatory requirements.

A couple of counterpoints though for the sake of discussion...

- I think having a small amount of “excess” for rotation and cleaning purposes probably shouldn’t be considered excess at all. That must be calculated as part of your capacity numbers. If, as a hospital you are not doing this, it’s going to show up in your outcomes I would think.

- Previous unexpected and extended hospital stays have unfortunately afforded me the opportunity to get a little feel for (anecdotally) what this runs like, at least in my area...
- Emergency rooms run well over capacity in my experience, and that is outside of flu season. In a serious outbreak our ER’s would present an enormous bottleneck.
- Multiple inpatient experiences on every occasion required some considerable apparent effort on the part of staff to secure a bed. Maybe I was just lucky? Four separate times? Maybe...

Some quick googling seems to indicate that official average occupancy rates (from 2014) in the US was somewhere around 60-70% in and around cities. Call me a skeptic, but that sounds like a load of horse shit to me.

In my nearest urban center (something like 3/4m people), the largest and most respected hospital boasts 1000 beds. That’s it. The best I can determine, that city, with that population, has a total of less than 7500 beds. If we use a conservative (and probably bs) 60% occupancy for that, you end up with a potential of 3000 free beds, for a city of something like 750,000. That means, if only 1% of the population were to get sick enough to require hospitalization, they’d be 4500 beds short.

Even if I’ve missed something big, and grossly underestimated capacity, and they actually have twice as many beds as I thought, that is still not enough to handle even that 1%.

Again, it may very well be that none of this applies to China at all, but I suspect the same motivations push management there as they do here.

I agree with most you say but in an epidemic, and especially in a country where healthcare is government provided, management (a.k.a. the government) would clear beds by postponing less urgent medical care and moving non epidemic cases to hospitals outside of the epidemic area.

Clearly in China doing that to clear beds was not enough which suggests the official numbers are under reported. That's my point. Their response suggests their numbers are BS.

 

[phlegethon]

Running at 100% eliminates the ability to react to seasonal illnesses or epidemics. But let's do the math.

If the average person lives 80 years and spends 8 days in the hospital (I think this is low), that's 1/10 of a day per year. That's more than 100,000,000 bed days, divide by 365 days a year, that's about 300,000 beds needed to run at 100% or more. Finding 4,500 beds is a 1.5% increase (or much less).

Of course I don't believe they run at 100%. That is a pretty unrealistic even for a landlord, everyone needs housing and except for things like college towns and vacation rentals, there isn't much fluctuation in demand and landlords like to run at 95% or more.

For practicality, hospitals probably shoot for 80-85% so they can rotate patients a bit while they clean things. That probably means there are 30-45,000 empty beds in China when things are normal.

Now they are literally doing a Chinese fire drill to build extra beds.

The response just doesn't match their numbers.

I’m an emergency physician. I can tell you that most large hospitals in the US do run at 100% capacity or very close most of the time. There are multiple reasons and it’s not exactly planned, but at the same time administrators don’t try very hard to change the situation because it is better for them financially. It’s bad when a disaster happens, yes, but no one cares about that except the few people who do disaster planning.

 

[phlegethon]

The fact that there were Chinese nationals working here, and on that virus, is eleventy steps past "suspicious" though. To this I absolutely agree.

This is not the least bit suspicious. Chinese people make up a disproportionate contribution to the workforce in the sciences, including biology. They work hard and are usually better educated than Americans, and they are willing to take these (usually low paying) jobs. It’s not a plot any more than seeing Mexicans working in a kitchen.

 

[Nik H]

Any news from the doc Nik, Wuhan diagnosis or just inflamed prostate?

Nothing special...just good old garden variety flu...feel better today other than I now a secondary bacterial infection in my gut so I really can't eat anything and keep it down. Doc said that the flu bug propagating in the US this year is much more severe. Lots of people are getting so weak due to the prolonged days with a fever that their immune system is weakened and makes the host more susceptible to developing secondary bacterial issues.

What I don't understand is that the flu shot historically works for me. She said that it actually works in about 10% of the cases. The virus mutates so quickly that the flu shots are not so effective

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Anyone seen a news conference where they are "show casing" an individual who was officially diagnosed with Corona-virus and was treated, cured and released back into society?

Hobo

 

[Gunfighter14e2]

China’s top court hits out at police over coronavirus ‘rumour’ crackdown

Supreme People’s Court says authorities should have tolerated messages posted about the illness in a group chat, even if they were not completely accurate.

www.scmp.com

 

[Fig]

Opinion | China’s Censorship Helps Spread the Virus

Consider the Spanish flu, which killed 50 million in 1918-19 as governments at war suppressed the news.

www.wsj.com

Very interesting article. "Communist Flu" may be accurate. Their awful hygiene creates these mutant strains, and then their totalitarian system of government makes sure that the virus keeps spreading by aggressively controlling all information and keeping people in the dark about what's going on. Only by the time they're quarantining entire cities do they admit something is going on.

This was obviously a lot better than in the past, but they can't seem to overcome their totalitarian knee jerk reactions.

 

[ForgeValley]

Nothing special...just good old garden variety flu...feel better today other than I now a secondary bacterial infection in my gut so I really can't eat anything and keep it down. Doc said that the flu bug propagating in the US this year is much more severe. Lots of people are getting so weak due to the prolonged days with a fever that their immune system is weakened and makes the host more susceptible to developing secondary bacterial issues.

What I don't understand is that the flu shot historically works for me. She said that it actually works in about 10% of the cases. The virus mutates so quickly that the flu shots are not so effective

Excellent news, but the 'regular' flu is sounding bad enough as is.

 

[MadDuner]

It looks like the number of reported cases just about doubles every day at a this point. Hopefully the numbers will begin to level out now that they know what’s going on. That whole “infecting people for 2 weeks before symptoms” thing is tough to get in front of.

 

[Snuby642]

Probably too late to get in front of by now.

 

[Nik H]

Excellent news, but the 'regular' flu is sounding bad enough as is.

I wouldn't wish this on Chuck Schumer...well maybe I would

 

[Snuby642]

I have seen this called the communist flu.

If it were truly selective it would be not bad at all. Start in DC.

 

[Blue Sky Country]

Anyone seen a news conference where they are "show casing" an individual who was officially diagnosed with Corona-virus and was treated, cured and released back into society?

Hobo

Until an actual drug had been developed and used on someone, the state would not take such a bold step in such a proclamation especially in the age of social media. So far, anyone who recovered from the illness, or regular influenza for that matter, has been "cured" through a combination of effective hospital treatment regimen, ie., electrolyte/fluid balance and prevention of secondary infection, along with their own immune response to the infection. The cures were not provided by an external drug. Enough people with basic to intermediate knowledge about the mechanism of viral illness participate on social media that any government attempt to portray a natural recovery as other than so would be subject to ridicule by the netizens of these sites.

 

[Blue Sky Country]

Nothing special...just good old garden variety flu...feel better today other than I now a secondary bacterial infection in my gut so I really can't eat anything and keep it down. Doc said that the flu bug propagating in the US this year is much more severe. Lots of people are getting so weak due to the prolonged days with a fever that their immune system is weakened and makes the host more susceptible to developing secondary bacterial issues.

What I don't understand is that the flu shot historically works for me. She said that it actually works in about 10% of the cases. The virus mutates so quickly that the flu shots are not so effective

That is exactly what happened to my mother in the February of 1997. She had a vicious influenza bout for a week and refused to go to the hospital because she insisted on being able to pick me up from elementary school every afternoon while my father worked long hours at a construction firm. She tried to keep her condition masked from us using various strength OTC fever reducers. From Tylenol to Motrin to Contac. It did not get better and then one night after 6 days of the initial infection, she vomited and then collapsed on the bathroom floor. Both my father and I were there and we got an ambulance for her straight away. It was bacterial pneumonia and she was near death when they got her on a super-aggressive antibiotic cocktail drip. Seven days she had to spend in there. From ICU, her condition gradually stabilized and was then cycled down to the most normal inpatient settings. It was a very close call, as the doctors later told us.

 

[Nik H]

That is exactly what happened to my mother in the February of 1997. She had a vicious influenza bout for a week and refused to go to the hospital because she insisted on being able to pick me up from elementary school every afternoon while my father worked long hours at a construction firm. She tried to keep her condition masked from us using various strength OTC fever reducers. From Tylenol to Motrin to Contac. It did not get better and then one night after 6 days of the initial infection, she vomited and then collapsed on the bathroom floor. Both my father and I were there and we got an ambulance for her straight away. It was bacterial pneumonia and she was near death when they got her on a super-aggressive antibiotic cocktail drip. Seven days she had to spend in there. From ICU, her condition gradually stabilized and was then cycled down to the most normal inpatient settings. It was a very close call, as the doctors later told us.

I never really realized how debilitating several days of fever can be. I thankfully drank a ton of water mixed with Gatorade. My wife was very concerned about pneumonia as it is a likely consequence. She listened to my lungs a couple of times a day over this process and said you are clear. Although this gut thing is not pleasant.

 

[OldSalty]

I never really realized how debilitating several days of fever can be. I thankfully drank a ton of water mixed with Gatorade. My wife was very concerned about pneumonia as it is a likely consequence. She listened to my lungs a couple of times a day over this process and said you are clear. Although this gut thing is not pleasant.

Glad you are feeling better though brother. Get some rest and heal up.

 

[Nik H]

Glad you are feeling better though brother. Get some rest and heal up.

Thank you very much...I am trying

 

[bunsen27]

I never really realized how debilitating several days of fever can be. I thankfully drank a ton of water mixed with Gatorade. My wife was very concerned about pneumonia as it is a likely consequence. She listened to my lungs a couple of times a day over this process and said you are clear. Although this gut thing is not pleasant.

Glad you are feeling better. I caugth the Flu this year back in Sept and ran a fever for about 72 hours. Gatorade and water is a good choice, but also consider Pedialyte. It's not just for kids and has more electrolytes and less sugar. This one is my favorite:

Pedialyte AdvancedCare® Plus Berry Frost Flavor

Pedialyte AdvancedCare Plus liter in berry frost flavor is designed to help you feel better when experiencing dehydration symptoms from food poisoning, heat, and more.

pedialyte.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Coronavirus declared global health emergency by WHO

Coronavirus declared global health emergency by WHO

The World Health Organization calls for moves to stop the virus spreading to vulnerable countries.

www.bbc.com

 

[Nik H]

Coronavirus declared global health emergency by WHO

Coronavirus declared global health emergency by WHO

The World Health Organization calls for moves to stop the virus spreading to vulnerable countries.

www.bbc.com

Deployment of Blue Helmet Force will start immediately in the US to protect the public

 

[OldSalty]

Can yall imagine being one of the 7000 people stuck on that cruise ship? FFS...

Make your preps now, you never know....

 

[Arc Light]

Nope. One of the reasons you will never catch me on a cruise ship, ever. Cannot for the world of me see the appeal of it. Something about being trapped with thousands of people, screaming kids, germs, food poisoning, etc. on a boat with no means of escape. And you have to pay for that shit.

 

[OldSalty]

Nope. One of the reasons you will never catch me on a cruise ship, ever. Cannot for the world of me see the appeal of it. Something about being trapped with thousands of people, screaming kids, germs, food poisoning, etc. on a boat with no means of escape. And you have to pay for that shit.

I feel exactly the same. Never been on a cruise and never will.

 

[Gunfighter14e2]

There are flying cattle cars,... floating cattle cars,... an rolling cattle cars. I'll pass on all of them,...

 

[Snuby642]

Not to mention first rule is to disarm you.

 

[McReef]

I agree with most you say but in an epidemic, and especially in a country where healthcare is government provided, management (a.k.a. the government) would clear beds by postponing less urgent medical care and moving non epidemic cases to hospitals outside of the epidemic area.

Clearly in China doing that to clear beds was not enough which suggests the official numbers are under reported. That's my point. Their response suggests their numbers are BS.

Agreed.
In a place like China optics are all that matter. They probably just get a mandate to clear X number of beds, regardless of current use. “We need X number of beds dedicated to this to show we are acting, just toss those others out.”

 

[j-huskey]

There are flying cattle cars,... floating cattle cars,... an rolling cattle cars. I'll pass on all of them,...

And big cattle pens, where they sing to the herd like the old cowboys on a drive.....

Maaaaaahhhhh ??????

 

[sirhrmechanic]

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Can yall imagine being one of the 7000 people stuck on that cruise ship? FFS...

Make your preps now, you never know....

Kinda makes me wary of gettin' somewhere and suddenly the EXIT door is bolted shut. Just a matter of time before they find a person with the virus in Walmart, Costco or a movie theater...

 

[Arc Light]

Kinda makes me wary of gettin' somewhere and suddenly the EXIT door is bolted shut. Just a matter of time before they find a person with the virus in Walmart, Costco or a movie theater...

That’s why I recommend carrying a small amount of C4 on your person at all times. An ounce of prevention as they say!

 

[Gunfighter14e2]

And big cattle pens, where they sing to the herd like the old cowboys on a drive.....

Maaaaaahhhhh ??????

Only if you allow them to herd you up. At some point 442'ing up, might be your last resort.

 

[SilentStalkr]

Harvard University Professor and Two Chinese Nationals Charged in Three Separate China Related Cases

The Department of Justice announced today that the Chair of Harvard University’s Chemistry and Chemical Biology Department and two Chinese nationals have been charged in connection with aiding the People’s Republic of China.

www.justice.gov

 

[MadDuner]

Harvard University Professor and Two Chinese Nationals Charged in Three Separate China Related Cases

The Department of Justice announced today that the Chair of Harvard University’s Chemistry and Chemical Biology Department and two Chinese nationals have been charged in connection with aiding the People’s Republic of China.

www.justice.gov

Had to quote it to see it.

 

[j-huskey]

Only if you allow them to herd you up. At some point 442'ing up, might be your last resort.

Seen 420 at concerts, wut is 442....

 

[Gunfighter14e2]

Seen 420 at concerts, wut is 442....

The motto Of the 442nd regimental combat team,.."Go for broke."

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Harvard University Professor and Two Chinese Nationals Charged in Three Separate China Related Cases

The Department of Justice announced today that the Chair of Harvard University’s Chemistry and Chemical Biology Department and two Chinese nationals have been charged in connection with aiding the People’s Republic of China.

www.justice.gov

Saw this yesterday in a news article... The fine print = Lieber became a “Strategic Scientist” at Wuhan University of Technology (WUT) in China

 

[Jscb1b]

Fucking hang the traitor and the spies!

 

[pmclaine]

Saw this yesterday in a news article... The fine print = Lieber became a “Strategic Scientist” at Wuhan University of Technology (WUT) in China

Yep, his wife just signed his $1 mil bail today.

He lives the next town over - Lexington, yes that Lexington - of all places.

I wish Captain Parkers ghost would come and torture his soul.

Harvard employee though, should we surprised he is a communist traitor to his country.

 

[Sean the Nailer]

Harvard University Professor and Two Chinese Nationals Charged in Three Separate China Related Cases

The Department of Justice announced today that the Chair of Harvard University’s Chemistry and Chemical Biology Department and two Chinese nationals have been charged in connection with aiding the People’s Republic of China.

www.justice.gov

So,,,,, "this" coupled with my comments the other day regarding chinese nationals working in the Winnipeg, Mb. lab on these viruses's,,,, I'll say again:

"what's the worst that could happen".

Or, how about:

"What could go wrong....?"

 

[navynambu]

Heard a little chatter on this today. Apparently as of midnight today, Russia is no longer admitting freight trains from China, that's Freight trains, not passenger trains, and it turned off electronic visas for China, and even if you have an electronic visa, if you're from China no admission to Russia. Maybe China give its buddy Russia heads up. Also with under reporting of spread in China indicating a rate of maybe 1.5, actual rate could be 5-5.5??? This next week will be interesting.

 

[TACC]

Heard a little chatter on this today. Apparently as of midnight today, Russia is no longer admitting freight trains from China, that's Freight trains, not passenger trains, and it turned off electronic visas for China, and even if you have an electronic visa, if you're from China no admission to Russia. Maybe China give its buddy Russia heads up. Also with under reporting of spread in China indicating a rate of maybe 1.5, actual rate could be 5-5.5??? This next week will be interesting.

Why is Russia not stopping passenger trains?

 

[Snuby642]

Do you think maybe " and passenger trains" was implied?

 

[flyer]

Of all the pandemic scares I have seen, this one seems the scariest.

The lack of transparency from China isn't helping.

The fact that I'm right where it is most likely to hit first in the US sucks.

 

[Blue Sky Country]

Of all the pandemic scares I have seen, this one seems the scariest.

The lack of transparency from China isn't helping.

The fact that I'm right where it is most likely to hit first in the US sucks.

Even under normal circumstances, China's medical system has always been overwhelmed and stretched to near breaking point. Go to any Shanghai emergency room on a normal day or evening. You will find every single chair occupied and patients sitting on stools or on the floor in the hallway. Only the most serious cases are given a gurney. The rest are given an IV or a cup of meds and sent back out into the waiting area. Average time to see a doctor is anywhere between 2-6 hours. This current epidemic is basically a high velocity rifle bullet going through tightly packed flesh and organs. The impact is creating a massive shock driven wound cavity that the system simply cannot move or bend for. And this is creating incredibly destructive consequences. From my experiences in the Chinese healthcare system from receiving treatment there in the past, I can confidently say that this is a system that never prepares for emergencies. It's operations are based on a "think of the present only" routine. No effort is made on preparing treatment space, increasing personnel and arranging for rapid movement of supplies in the event of a mass casualty situation. If this epidemic had been a mass shooting or arson instead, we would still see much higher casualties and chaos over there than other places around the world. And before any snot faced liberal thinks "But... But... China has socialized healthcare and it is better than the USA, reeeee!"........ There is absolutely NOTHING socialist about China's current government system. All health insurance carriers are private and in order to get insurance, you HAVE to work. No if's or buts. If you do not have coverage, you are expected to pay for EVERY service that you get in the facility. Everything is money based. Cash, credit, traveler's checks, COD's, whatever. If you are not a contributing member of your community, best not even show your face in social circles. The people there value masculinity, toughness, FACE, pride, and public image on a far greater scale than your average urban westerner. The best term to label China's current government would be a corporatist centralized state. 60% fascism, 40% ultra-nationalism, and 0% socialist. The real communist period lasted from roughly 1950, with the initiation of the 'People's Land and Agricultural Reforms', to the dissolution of the Gang of Four in 1978. A mere 28 years. It was a model that simply cannot be sustained and the country had been driven into near civil war by it's end.

Heartbreaking stories from the ground zero of a biological brush fire...

Dispatches From Hubei: Two Weeks Between Life and Death

A Hubei resident recounts his wife’s final days, and his battle to save her.

www.sixthtone.com

----------
Weng Qiuqiu never learned what killed her.

The disease moved fast. Over the course of just 12 days, the 32-year-old resident of Huanggang City in China’s central Hubei province went from complaining of a headache and cough to being diagnosed with an “unknown” type of pneumonia and put on a respirator, says her husband Chen Yong. Finally, on Jan. 21, 2020, after burning through 200,000 yuan ($29,000) in less than two weeks — the totality of their life’s savings plus everything they could raise from family, friends, and a crowdsourcing campaign — and with no sign of improvement, Chen agreed to take his wife off life support.

For weeks, Hubei has been wracked by a novel coronavirus epidemic that has sickened thousands and left over 100 dead, according to official figures. But even these numbers may not tell the full story. On Jan. 24, a research group affiliated with Wuhan University hospital warned doctors that the novel coronavirus’ wide-ranging symptoms make it difficult to identify and treat.

Weng’s death certificate says only that she died of “septic shock, respiratory failure, and severe pneumonia.” Chen still doesn’t know if she had the novel coronavirus, or if such a diagnosis could have saved his wife’s life. Huanggang lies just over 75 kilometers away from the provincial capital of Wuhan, where the outbreak started, and it has been among the areas hardest hit by the epidemic, with almost 500 infections and 12 deaths.
----------

 

[Gunfighter14e2]

This is only going to get worst as many horses have already escaped. If the true intent was to start a pandemic, we should know with in the next few weeks.

 

[Seed tick]

There were 8 so county school systems closed in Tennessee today for sickness. The country I live in is closed Monday and Tuesday of next week. More closures than I have seen before.