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Thoughts? Are we about to have another depression?
- Thread starter SilentStalkr
- Start date
The powers that be will probably trigger a market crash in the last year of Trump's first term to kerp him from getting reelected.
They may do it sooner and crash the economy with oil pricices ie sanction the Saudis over crap that is not our business .
My bad I just read that piece . Yeah no shit Treasury Bonds are taking a hit because all of the Investments Houses just dumped them on the Market and caused this .These are or Bonds are considered a shelter in a bad market . Someone just artificially /purposely just took that away. . ???? I'll try to find the article .
Tough time to lower taxes and raise tariffs... After several years of free money we can't stay accommodative - but I am not gonna file a complaint I just switched from LLC to corporation and worked with it 
I bought 100% lumber last year with my extra money so I am happy... It would be maybe 5 grand more if I had to order it now! Almost done nailing it together anyyyyy dayyyy now....
Also, who wants to be in the auto insurance game up in Canada now?
I bought 100% lumber last year with my extra money so I am happy... It would be maybe 5 grand more if I had to order it now! Almost done nailing it together anyyyyy dayyyy now....
Also, who wants to be in the auto insurance game up in Canada now?
Maybe when it pops Ill get showered with some of that stolen cash.
Maybe I don't understand how things work, but it seems to me that markets have been turned into nothing more than a casino. I'd like to see limits on trading, like one trade per investor per day. The idea that computers, trading stocks on autopilot 150 times an hour, is "investing" is horseshit. It creates economic panic when markets rapidly dip, even when the fundamentals of the economy are in good shape.
I think a correction would be natural at this point, we've had alot of growth. I'm young, so for me that just a 30% off clearance sale. But I don't think we are headed for depression. There is alot of hiring happening right now. To me, that means businesses are feeling positive about growth. As a business owner, I am.
I think a correction would be natural at this point, we've had alot of growth. I'm young, so for me that just a 30% off clearance sale. But I don't think we are headed for depression. There is alot of hiring happening right now. To me, that means businesses are feeling positive about growth. As a business owner, I am.
The last bubble that burst he who had cash won. Million dollar properties were selling for pennies on the dollar. If you had cash...you were cool. Stocks not so much.
There will be pain as we return from a bogus propped up globalist economy to a competitive Adam Smith free market economy.
Our financial central bank has to come to terms that as of late it is guilty of exactly those abuses we accuse China of - as regards money printing.
Never again with too big to fail, get the govt regulations that mandate unsound fiscal management out of the CFRs, and lets compete on an America first basis,.
No more technology stealing.
Our financial central bank has to come to terms that as of late it is guilty of exactly those abuses we accuse China of - as regards money printing.
Never again with too big to fail, get the govt regulations that mandate unsound fiscal management out of the CFRs, and lets compete on an America first basis,.
No more technology stealing.
A depression isn't really the problem, the response is.
FDR and Obama inserted themselves into their respective downturns and worsened/lengthened them.
The depression of 1921 was left alone to correct itself, and did so quickly it's called the forgotten depression.
FDR and Obama inserted themselves into their respective downturns and worsened/lengthened them.
The depression of 1921 was left alone to correct itself, and did so quickly it's called the forgotten depression.
It is just all a big PONZI SCHEME ,and it's been going on for decades.
IMO, just keep an eye on the trend lines and 50/200 day moving average. That’s pretty basic but at least gives a trend confirmation.
If you’re a contrarian then money from bonds to equities is bearish. I kind of lean the other way and think it’s based on atrociously low yields and a little more confidence in the equity market.
There’s still quite a bit of corporate money moving thanks to the tax cut.
If you’re a contrarian then money from bonds to equities is bearish. I kind of lean the other way and think it’s based on atrociously low yields and a little more confidence in the equity market.
There’s still quite a bit of corporate money moving thanks to the tax cut.
Buy and hold stock in companies that aren't going broke is my way...let it crash. It's way time for a massive correction and it looks like it may have begun. I hope it loses 20% - 50% by the first of the new year as I have $200K to invest when it bottoms out.
When it hit the fan in 2008 those who waited it out got everything back and a handsome profit in 3 years. The whole thing is a game Billionaires play.... they "drop" a little Ditty about a trade war or a global issue *after* they have sold their stock and are sitting on cash and then they watch it burn. When all the schmucks who can't take the heat sell at a loss, the Billionaires that designed the sell off tell everyone it's all OK, drop a Ditty that makes the market soar, and then buy yer losses and ride the stock back to record levels.
Don't sell the fucking stock. Buy stock in companies that are not rocky (and that pay dividends) and then hold it till ya die. Don't sell, this is not a game - the ups and downs are orchestrated by Billionaires to take yer money. It's all a game to the guys who control the markets - the Billionairs. Rigged to win for them..
VooDoo
When it hit the fan in 2008 those who waited it out got everything back and a handsome profit in 3 years. The whole thing is a game Billionaires play.... they "drop" a little Ditty about a trade war or a global issue *after* they have sold their stock and are sitting on cash and then they watch it burn. When all the schmucks who can't take the heat sell at a loss, the Billionaires that designed the sell off tell everyone it's all OK, drop a Ditty that makes the market soar, and then buy yer losses and ride the stock back to record levels.
Don't sell the fucking stock. Buy stock in companies that are not rocky (and that pay dividends) and then hold it till ya die. Don't sell, this is not a game - the ups and downs are orchestrated by Billionaires to take yer money. It's all a game to the guys who control the markets - the Billionairs. Rigged to win for them..
VooDoo
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Good advice that.
In the last one BP on dividend alone was right at 9%. You see that sort of stuff it’s pretty much a slam dunk.
If we have another recession it’s because The fucking fed can’t leave well enough alone. The fact that they are increasing rates and plan on increasing for the next 4 quarters is ludicrous. They say they will raise rates until the economy cools down. So basically they are trying to increase unemployment. Cramer had some thoughts on it today, all of which I agree with.
END THE FED!
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/18/cramer-feds-attempt-to-preemptively-curb-inflation-is-a-mistake.html
END THE FED!
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/18/cramer-feds-attempt-to-preemptively-curb-inflation-is-a-mistake.html
They need to raise rates. Look what happened in 1999. They didn’t do shit and the market lost $6T of cap when that was worth a lot more than today. Either you have a fed that does what it is supposed to or no fed at all and let the market price everything itself. That’s why Greenspan had it wrong. A disciple of ayn rand, doesn’t raise rates during the orgy, but lowered them like a motherfucker at the first sign of a slow down
I’m perfectly ok with the market dictating the rates. The fed is a sham. It’s a plague.
Thoughts, yes eventually, but that is a buying opportunity as log as you don’t have a democrat president or George biush who look at it as a opportunity to further enslave the US population and grow the deep state.
Is cash something you withdraw from the bank or dig up around the house?
Its a liquid cash value that you can convert into investments that are at the bottom of a trough caused by panic or algorithm triggered selling.
I think to his point, that’s all assuming your money or cash, if you will, is worth anything at all. Who is to say it will be?
I’m involved in building residential housing. I’m seeing the same trend we saw before our most recent recession. Gradually lenders are getting more aggressive and the buyers are less and less qualified. I don’t know what people expect when you buy a home for $300,000 when you only have business owning a house worth half that but it’s not sustainable.
Yeah, I called the Depression of 2008 in the Summer of 2007 and basically saw it coming a mile away. Pulled all my money out of the market (my broker/financial advisor was absolutely livid!!) and bought CD's. My brother thought I was nuts and lost *half* his retirement money and finally sold when he had lost his ass already. If he'd have followed my example or even sat tight and waited it out he'd have saved himself a million dollars.
Long story short, all the signs are there right now and then some. The potential for a big correction/Depression is there.....we didn't fix it the last time. This next one will be a doozy. Is it imminent? Who knows....but it is inevitable. It's not a question of "will we have another Depression" it's a question of "when will we have the next Depression and how bad will it be"
VooDoo
Long story short, all the signs are there right now and then some. The potential for a big correction/Depression is there.....we didn't fix it the last time. This next one will be a doozy. Is it imminent? Who knows....but it is inevitable. It's not a question of "will we have another Depression" it's a question of "when will we have the next Depression and how bad will it be"
VooDoo
difference is right now there is no cheap money available so that is keeping things in check a bit. Plus our industry keeps posting great earnings, that was not the case in 2007 and 2008.
prudent to take some of the gains and put them in cash to wait for opportunity right now.
prudent to take some of the gains and put them in cash to wait for opportunity right now.
I think what's coming is going to have a lot more violence than a depression.
Yeah, I'm not getting the "violence" reference. Capitalism is a game and it's engineered to go up and down and make rich people richer and poor people poorer.
I don't get the violence reference. Half of Americans aren't invested...which is odd because half of Americans don't vote. Maybe the half that don't bother to vote are the ones that don't play the market, don't invest, don't save, and have no stake in America.
If yer not invested...if you don't have skin in the game, don't vote, don't save, don't invest, don't care to play then yer gonna get run over. Simple truth of the 21st century Trump "billionaires call all the shots" era....the rich are controlling the agenda and paying yer politicians to make an environment where the rich eat the poor and the middle class.
Get invested or get eaten. Sad but true. The rich are gonna get exponentially richer the next few years. The poor are gonna die/starve as are half the middle class that doesn't vote and is not invested. Put yer money where the fat rich people have their money and ride it up.
Or starve. If that leads to violence, well, whatever.
VooDoo
I don't get the violence reference. Half of Americans aren't invested...which is odd because half of Americans don't vote. Maybe the half that don't bother to vote are the ones that don't play the market, don't invest, don't save, and have no stake in America.
If yer not invested...if you don't have skin in the game, don't vote, don't save, don't invest, don't care to play then yer gonna get run over. Simple truth of the 21st century Trump "billionaires call all the shots" era....the rich are controlling the agenda and paying yer politicians to make an environment where the rich eat the poor and the middle class.
Get invested or get eaten. Sad but true. The rich are gonna get exponentially richer the next few years. The poor are gonna die/starve as are half the middle class that doesn't vote and is not invested. Put yer money where the fat rich people have their money and ride it up.
Or starve. If that leads to violence, well, whatever.
VooDoo
there are a lot more millionaires on this forum than you think. The half that dont save leech off the half that do. If capitalism made the rich get richer and the poor poorer then why is our number one killer of poor people in the USA obesity? Your premise is a communist talking point from the DNC.
There was still something left to salvage during the last depression. There's not much left to salvage if we have another one, it's not like we make anything. When my grandmother was young, there was still a reason to believe it could be fixed and that the next generation will do better than the last.
This country may not fail in my lifetime, but it will fail, and it'll be brought about by lack of stability in the economy so that any crisis becomes magnified and where only a few benefit regardless of the situation, and the rest suffer regardless of the situation.
This country may not fail in my lifetime, but it will fail, and it'll be brought about by lack of stability in the economy so that any crisis becomes magnified and where only a few benefit regardless of the situation, and the rest suffer regardless of the situation.
we are richer than ever, as a whole, the problem we have is over bearing government, and its meddling in our economy. Capitalism is not the problem, Crony Capitalism is.. BMA
If things turn violent a clean up will happen real quick and we will come out stronger, its darwinian in nature.
If things turn violent a clean up will happen real quick and we will come out stronger, its darwinian in nature.
Bear markets, please show proof that housing is in a bear market and the auto industry is in a bear market?
Part of the housing market problem is that there is a near complete lack of "affordable" housing. All the builders and sellers are trying to push houses ever more expensive & not build places that the average middle class working family could afford without being stressed.
Part of it is the cost for materials & labor that have skyrocketed during the recent boom making it unprofitable to make houses under the quarter million range. I guess it will be kind of a self correcting problem. The issue is as usual the lenders make a mess and then try to "fix" it by punishing everybody who would make a good candidate for a loan with onerous terms and qualifications.
Affordability is key which is the opposite of what so many "traditional lenders" say.
For example one of my friends made very good money selling & financing affordable homes (while they still existed several years ago), to people who would not normally be ever considered for home loans (mostly legal residents from our neighbor down south). He didn't care about the credit scores of the buyers, but made sure the house payments were less than you could rent a cheap crappy apartment for. Then with a decent down payment required (usually $10k) he would let them have it with no other proof. Defaults were next to nil because everybody has to have somewhere to live unless they want to be on the street & if the house payment is cheaper than the crappiest apartment, they will find a way to keep it.
Compared with another party I know that lost their house in the financial crash. They had a more traditional house and a mortgage near the edge of their comfortable limits. Fine so far... then the financial crash happened and the greedy banks wanted more money to cover their losses. They found out that they had not read the fine print on the loan carefully and it was an adjustable rate mortgage... well you think fine... the interest rates to the banks were plummeting to near 0% from the Fed... so you should be good?... Nope they pulled out some stupid BS and claimed that the London Interbank Exchange rate was going way up... so they hiked the payment by about 50% each month and that was that...
Later when the government decided to "charge" the banks with manipulating the LIBER to suit their own ends as part of their squeezing money back... the government got a nice big multi million chunk of change for them that the banks paid (funded by the huge fee increases the banks charged all their customers) to make it all go away... but what about the actual taxpayers and citizens who had their lives ruined by it.... tough luck..
Part of it is the cost for materials & labor that have skyrocketed during the recent boom making it unprofitable to make houses under the quarter million range. I guess it will be kind of a self correcting problem. The issue is as usual the lenders make a mess and then try to "fix" it by punishing everybody who would make a good candidate for a loan with onerous terms and qualifications.
Affordability is key which is the opposite of what so many "traditional lenders" say.
For example one of my friends made very good money selling & financing affordable homes (while they still existed several years ago), to people who would not normally be ever considered for home loans (mostly legal residents from our neighbor down south). He didn't care about the credit scores of the buyers, but made sure the house payments were less than you could rent a cheap crappy apartment for. Then with a decent down payment required (usually $10k) he would let them have it with no other proof. Defaults were next to nil because everybody has to have somewhere to live unless they want to be on the street & if the house payment is cheaper than the crappiest apartment, they will find a way to keep it.
Compared with another party I know that lost their house in the financial crash. They had a more traditional house and a mortgage near the edge of their comfortable limits. Fine so far... then the financial crash happened and the greedy banks wanted more money to cover their losses. They found out that they had not read the fine print on the loan carefully and it was an adjustable rate mortgage... well you think fine... the interest rates to the banks were plummeting to near 0% from the Fed... so you should be good?... Nope they pulled out some stupid BS and claimed that the London Interbank Exchange rate was going way up... so they hiked the payment by about 50% each month and that was that...
Later when the government decided to "charge" the banks with manipulating the LIBER to suit their own ends as part of their squeezing money back... the government got a nice big multi million chunk of change for them that the banks paid (funded by the huge fee increases the banks charged all their customers) to make it all go away... but what about the actual taxpayers and citizens who had their lives ruined by it.... tough luck..
Personally, I think that aside from the potential economic forces in play right now, we have a number of actors either enciting violent actions or creating the circumstances under which violence could easily be ignited. A few examples being the sorts of crap Maxine Waters spouts and similar comments on the extreme right, group's related to George Soros, the Chinese, Iran and others. In days gone by we as a society had a bit more patience with idiots shooting off their mouths, and while a few people we always ready to fly off the handle at the drop of a hat, most took a more measured approach. I don't see this patience now. Moreover, I personally feel on all sides there is an increasingly short fuse burning on people who are looking for a reason to bust loose. And if I am honest, I have to admit that I would be hard pressed to keep my weapons holstered if there was a serious effort to usurp the constitution.
All of this is my reading of the evidence and is certainly not meant to be the gospel according to Doug. However, I think I'm pointing in the right direction.
Those who got out before the correction and bought back in reasonably quickly raised the shares they owned by a large amount and made a spectacular profit over those that waited it out....
that is the game Billionaires play...and you can too
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For the "average" investor who doesn't have retirement pending within 8-10 years, it is the best course of action. Timing the market is possible but it takes a lot of work. I have developed my methods over decades of investing and learning....sometimes the hard way. There are always tell tale signs and you have to be confident enough to pull the trigger and sell even when people who are the "experts" are contrarian in opinion. These major corrections take time to develop. You're not trying to time the sell to the exact high or the buy at the exact bottom. Anywhere close will do.
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