Thoughts? Are we about to have another depression?

[TheGerman]

We're going to have another gigantic real estate bubble soon.

The idiots around me are building shit cookie cutter houses left and right. I am willing to bet there have been houses/phases of neighborhoods already built here that no one will ever live in.

It's the same in Florida again (where I'm selling a house), its the same in LV again which was one of the biggest losers during the last one, and I'm sure its the same everywhere again.

 

[ArmyJerry]

well, I am waiting til the bubble pops to retire then I will scoop p shit tons of land and an ocean/river front home

 

[FS1]

If I don't see some peeps going to jail soon I will be very depressed. Does that count?

 

[Vodoun daVinci]

Those who got out before the correction and bought back in reasonably quickly raised the shares they owned by a large amount and made a spectacular profit over those that waited it out....

that is the game Billionaires play...and you can too

Yes I did exactly that....sold *everything* in September of 2007 and bought back in late 2009. But this was luck according to folks who know lots about the stock market. Timing the market is pretty much luck.

Folks who know a lot have been predicting *Armegeddon* for the last 4 years...we are currently experiencing a sell off/nose dive. Is it now Armageddon and the next recession has begun or just a correction?

My entire retirement depends on that. Should I sell it all tomorrow?

VooDoo

 

[ArmyJerry]

diversify for sure.

 

[Nik H]

But this was luck according to folks who know lots about the stock market. Timing the market is pretty much luck.

VooDoo

I must be pretty lucky then - 2000, 2008, 2018...

 

[Vodoun daVinci]

So, yer out and in cash now?

VooDoo

 

[SilentStalkr]

For the "average" investor who doesn't have retirement pending within 8-10 years, it is the best course of action. Timing the market is possible but it takes a lot of work. I have developed my methods over decades of investing and learning....sometimes the hard way. There are always tell tale signs and you have to be confident enough to pull the trigger and sell even when people who are the "experts" are contrarian in opinion. These major corrections take time to develop. You're not trying to time the sell to the exact high or the buy at the exact bottom. Anywhere close will do.

The market always takes a dump, pretty much every 4-6 years. This is nothing new. Im not sure if pulling out is always the best solution either. Plenty of people pulled out and sat on their money for a decade and truth be told, if they had just stayed in they would have earned their money back and then some many times over. So the decade they sat on their money they lost out on lots of compounding that could have happened. That’s the way I look at it, but if you were able to sell out before the correction, then buy back in when stuff is super low then yes you could have some potential to earn a payday but that’s about as sure as betting on a college football game. I’d say if you have done this multiple times then you are incredibly lucky or you got some serious stock market wizardry going on. What about for those accounts your really can’t yank out, like IRAs, well at least not without being heavily penalized?

 

[Nik H]

So, yer out and in cash now?

VooDoo

Since January...Treasuries...3/6 month but that is me

 

[Nik H]

The market always takes a dump, pretty much every 4-6 years. This is nothing new. Im not sure if pulling out is always the best solution either. Plenty of people pulled out and sat on their money for a decade and truth be told, if they had just stayed in they would have earned their money back and then some many times over. So the decade they sat on their money they lost out on lots of compounding that could have happened. That’s the way I look at it, but if you were able to sell out before the correction, then buy back in when stuff is super low then yes you could have some potential to earn a payday but that’s about as sure as betting on a college football game. I’d say if you have done this multiple times then you are incredibly lucky or you got some serious stock market wizardry going on. What about for those accounts your really can’t yank out, like IRAs, well at least not without being heavily penalized?

1. Major corrections occur a little more infrequently than 4-6 year cycles. Hard to predict.
2. If someone got out and sat on cash for a decade, then they're a dumbass...deserve what they get which is nothing. If all you do relative to investment is look at the indexes a couple of times a week, you are way better off leaving it in and riding through the correction cycle.
3. I have done it a few times. Been investing since the mid-eighties. I have my own algorithms. Luck has nothing to do with it. As I said previously, timing it to the exact peak or trough is virtually impossible but within 5-8% of them is not. I've made good decisions and a couple of not good decisions. You need to understand the ebb and flow of currency. Be well versed in all types of securities and have balls of steel. I make all my own decisions...If I lose, it is my problem. Id rather lose my own money than have some jackass do it for me.
4. You can keep your entire IRA in cash or any mix of securities that you wish. The fact that it is an IRA means nothing. I trade my IRA all the time. In fact it is better to do than a conventional brokerage account due to the tax advantages...It never comes out of the IRA but it is fair game inside. You can even buy physical gold if you want.

 

[SilentStalkr]

1. Major corrections occur a little more infrequently than 4-6 year cycles. Hard to predict.
2. If someone got out and sat on cash for a decade, then they're a dumbass...deserve what they get which is nothing. If all you do relative to investment is look at the indexes a couple of times a week, you are way better off leaving it in and riding through the correction cycle.
3. I have done it a few times. Been investing since the mid-eighties. I have my own algorithms. Luck has nothing to do with it. As I said previously, timing it to the exact peak or trough is virtually impossible but within 5-8% of them is not. I've made good decisions and a couple of not good decisions. You need to understand the ebb and flow of currency. Be well versed in all types of securities and have balls of steel. I make all my own decisions...If I lose, it is my problem. Id rather lose my own money than have some jackass do it for me.
4. You can keep your entire IRA in cash or any mix of securities that you wish. The fact that it is an IRA means nothing. I trade my IRA all the time. In fact it is better to do than a conventional brokerage account due to the tax advantages...It never comes out of the IRA but it is fair game inside. You can even buy physical gold if you want.

Alright, you’ve been investing longer than I’ve been alive. Haha. Throw me some wisdom or give me some books or some direction on where to find some. I’m not sure I can weather another 2008. I’m still recovering from the last time.

 

[lawofsavage]

If you can do this, you are doing something that literally the smartest people in the world cannot do and something that actual rocket scientist that work all day every day in that field cannot do.

I’m saying this in a non sarcastic way, we are lucky to be graced by your knowledge and I have no idea why you’re taking your time away from your yachts and exotics cars, vacations, and women to post here but we are all better for it.

1. Major corrections occur a little more infrequently than 4-6 year cycles. Hard to predict.
2. If someone got out and sat on cash for a decade, then they're a dumbass...deserve what they get which is nothing. If all you do relative to investment is look at the indexes a couple of times a week, you are way better off leaving it in and riding through the correction cycle.
3. I have done it a few times. Been investing since the mid-eighties. I have my own algorithms. Luck has nothing to do with it. As I said previously, timing it to the exact peak or trough is virtually impossible but within 5-8% of them is not. I've made good decisions and a couple of not good decisions. You need to understand the ebb and flow of currency. Be well versed in all types of securities and have balls of steel. I make all my own decisions...If I lose, it is my problem. Id rather lose my own money than have some jackass do it for me.
4. You can keep your entire IRA in cash or any mix of securities that you wish. The fact that it is an IRA means nothing. I trade my IRA all the time. In fact it is better to do than a conventional brokerage account due to the tax advantages...It never comes out of the IRA but it is fair game inside. You can even buy physical gold if you want.

 

[Nik H]

If you can do this, you are doing something that literally the smartest people in the world cannot do and something that actual rocket scientist that work all day every day in that field cannot do.

I’m saying this in a non sarcastic way, we are lucky to be graced by your knowledge and I have no idea why you’re taking your time away from your yachts and exotics cars, vacations, and women to post here but we are all better for it.

Non-sarcastic??? Pull the other one.

I am not a rocket scientist nor do I stay at Holiday Inns very often. I am, however, a degreed mathematician/physicist and EE. Math is my friend. Hence, the ability to understand and apply diverse forms of mathematics (information theory and stochastic processes) allows me some insights that others don't get. Not that this amounts to much other than more data. Most often, as I alluded to earlier, it is a hunch and an ability to pull the trigger. 90% of the people I meet could do what I do but don't have the stomach for following their intuition. Peter Lynch gave a lecture at Sloan School. I was a young kid at the time getting my graduate degree. He made a fortune on Leggs hosiery because he said "What a simple idea...what woman wouldn't buy that?! No one else had that foresight and intuition.

You need to get out more if you honestly believe it cannot be done. There are lots of investment clubs out there with some amazingly bright people...day traders and derivative security traders do this every day and make far more than I ever will live to do.

One reason I have the money I do despite the setbacks I have had in my life is because I don't have the shit you discuss in your non-sarcastic post. I spend my time in more fruitful endeavors.

Maybe you should as well...No sarcasm meant

 

[lawofsavage]

You just showed all of us that whatever success you may have had is due to pure luck and nothing else. If you think you are using the principles you discussed above in a way that other people are not to achieve an above market return then you’re living in some type of fantasy land.

I am not saying that what you discussed above is not possible but there are thousands and thousands if not millions of people that not only understand but apply the same things you discussed. To get anywhere close to above market risk adjusted returns, you would need to be trading on this info faster than the financial institutions and fund managers which is extremely unlikely.

 

[Nik H]

You just showed all of us that whatever success you may have had is due to pure luck and nothing else. If you think you are using the principles you discussed above in a way that other people are not to achieve an above market return then you’re living in some type of fantasy land.

I am not saying that what you discussed above is not possible but there are thousands and thousands if not millions of people that not only understand but apply the same things you discussed. To get anywhere close to above market risk adjusted returns, you would need to be trading on this info faster than the financial institutions and fund managers which is extremely unlikely.

Maybe you're right...It may just be dumb luck.

 

[ArmyJerry]

yeah thats the ticket. I have that dumb luck also.

Maybe you're right...It may just be dumb luck.

 

[Va_Gentleman]

I was fortunate to get a very good education by being in the major industries that caused the last several recessions. That along with some book learning gives me a few points I would like to offer.

1. 1995-2001 was the peak and over investment in everything .com related. Long run optical fiber, pet.com, bandwidth... everything was put a .com and the infrastructure people laid so much fiber and towers that they never would fill it in the time they thought. This is what I would call tangible or structural overbuilding and over-valuation.

2. 2003 - 2007 was the people on the Street that saw a way to get their gains from the repeal of Glass-Steagall Act by offering Mortgage Backed Securities and offering people with low credit scores and no income huge amounts of money for overpriced homes... and then allowed them to REFI and pull cash out. Everyone was in on the game from the loan officers, to the appraisers to the builders to the street... then when the shit hit the fan... Govt. Bailout.

3. From 2008 - 2012... It was terrible, because simply we had an administration and govt agencies that had no clue on how to interact with the Business world.. creating uncertainty. The market and economy could have recovered sooner... but Capital Expenditures are not going to grow if you think some regulation is going to shut you down.

4. 2012 - 2016... The economy slooowwwly rebounded.... because it looked like Hillary was going to be elected and continue to have an environment of uncertainty....

5. Then Boom 2016+.... Trump. Folks... the guys on the Street will always control financial instruments... but CONFIDENCE it the fuel that runs and economy. This unleashed the pent up demand for TANGIBLE/STRUCTURAL growth (See Point 1)... and man is it ever going....

The reason why Interest rates are growing is because we are seeing growth... simple as that. The FED is tamping on the breaks, but we are seeing inflation tick a bit and the cost of capital/borrowing tick as well. The truth is that this is a growth period that we had in the 80's, 50's, etc... real growth and economists and Street fucks do not recognize this because they were not around the last time it happened.

I see a Recession or slow down next year or the year after.. but that is okay as long as it is not due to a bubble (like Mortagage Securities or Over-Investment in Fake Products with no value).

There will be another .com/telecom bubble when 5G comes to town... it will follow the same hockey stick growth and over investment... but I do not know when that will happen.

The one thing you cannot do is beat the street. Those fucks know information in milliseconds that we will only hear about in 5 days. They have access to information and information is the power that drives the street. Diversify and invest for the long term is the best you can do... and look for real products that drive consumption and value to the consumer.

Just a few thoughts from an old hillbilly....

 

[Apollo1218]

It’s a game. If you have the knowledge or want to invest the time to obtain the knowledge then play it. If it’s “ rigged” it’s rigged to go up or down. Play the right side, up or down, with any equities and you are one of the “billionaires “.
Love that we have guys calling the next depression.
Priceless.

 

[Nik H]

Calling a correction prior to it happening is IMHO impossible. The fact is that you don't need to "call it". Look at 2008

Peak was 10/2007...you could have done nothing for 8 months to 6/2008 and lost less than 2%. You could have also waited and lost ~8%. I have threshold stops always set to limit losses. I got out in March of 2008. It was a hunch based on things I saw. In fact, I questioned the whole idea during April and May of 2008 but stayed the line.

Most people tell me that I am overly conservative and my limits are crazy....maybe so.... but seems to work for me as it avoided the whole mess that occurred in late summer 2008. I look at charts and the technical indicators like this today and smile...

Just dumb luck...I wish all of you the same degree of it.

 

[Dirty D]

 

[ArmyJerry]

Funny stuff

 

[308220]

It'll be less valuable than toilet paper.

Have you ever had to take a shit and had nothing to wipe your ass? Toilet paper is worth its weight in gold when all you have is your hand.

 

[Dirty D]

Funny stuff

It’s funny until you realize they are talking about printing more money.

 

[Dewey7271]

yeah thats the ticket. I have that dumb luck also

Yep. Wonder how that happens.
Here. Read this. Then tell me more about luck. Guess all the folks in it were just lucky too. And no, it’s not an endorsement nor am I pimping any method or methodology, just giving an example I’m aware of that sometimes betters the odds.
https://www.amazon.com/Trend-Following-Updated-Millions-Markets/dp/013702018X

 

[pmclaine]

Fucking sweater boy basically saying when the Ponzi sceme stops paying the top of the pile he is on than it will require peons like us again to feel the pain while they get paid for running shitty financials.

.......and he is blaming it on Trump.

 

[Nik H]

The Economist is a liberal, financial rag.

Most people that read it are the typical "I know more than you do" and wear bow ties usually in a pinkish hue.

 

[ArmyJerry]

it used to be decent 20 years ago

The Economist is a liberal financial rag.

Most people that read it are the typical "I know more than you do and wear bow ties usually in a pinkish hue.

 

[Nik H]

it used to be decent 20 years ago

Lots of things were better 20 years ago AJ

 

[ArmyJerry]

Me included

 

[pmclaine]

it used to be decent 20 years ago

I used to read it after doing tours of the Embassy while a Watchstander, 1988-1990 time frame.

It had good solid unbiased news because money was apolitical back than.

I remember a state dept employee telling me when I had an interest in doing that work to read the financial/economic papers for world news/self education as it was unbiased in her opinion.

Im guessing a similar question to DOS employee today they would tell me to read Marx because it is truthful.

 

[rjacobs]

Timing the market as Nik H has pointed out is impossible to time the top and the bottom, but you can limit your losses on the down side to 5-8% and time back in within 5-8% off the bottom.

When the S&P went 1% under the 200 DMA last week I got out into cash. That was about a 6% loss from the 2930 high. Its still under the 200dma and I expect it will continue to stay under there(the futures market for tomorrow is showing a drop after todays dip buying). Some people will stay in long enough for the 50dma to move under the 200dma, which signals the death cross, but shit, that could be a 20%+ loss waiting on that signal(its currently trending that way though as the 50dma has nosed over). Once I see the market moving back above the 200dma by at least 1% and staying there, I will likely get back in.

I read an article today from a Morgan Stanley guy names Michael Wilson and he is expecting the S&P to not bottom until somewhere in the 2450-2500 range in the next 3-4 weeks. Then I read another guy who predicts the S&P will top 3000 by years end... BOTH had good points and reasons pointing to their predictions. I honestly tend to believe both of them. I read another article last week by a guy who thought we would have a market decline until Thanksgiving, then as Christmas retail sales numbers start to roll in(the prediction is this Christmas will be the highest retail sales numbers in over a decade) the market will come roaring back in December.

 

[ArmyJerry]

gonna be a big jump when the mid terms are over

 

[ArmyJerry]

peak earnings means innovative leaps of near and capital expenditures on tech and upgrades to efficiencies are going to start real soon, the last two years were taking the slack out of the chain, wages will rise, inflation will become normal again like a normal capitalist economy should have. Trump will kick the fed in the balls, our middle class wealth will grow faster. For most of the fucktards today that are highly educated the idea of hard economic competition frightens them, they will be eaten, they are economic darwin award winners. I personally hope most of them off themselves so we never end up with a state run economy again.

 

[Flyingbullseye]

^^^^^^^^Spotted the next troll

 

[FS1]

^^^^^^^^Spotted the next troll

I wonder if she is related to Chelsea

 

[TexPatriot]

The powers that be will probably trigger a market crash in the last year of Trump's first term to kerp him from getting reelected.

They will do exactly this. Trump's historically booming economy was proof Capitalism works and his greatest achievement, setting him on course to win the Greatest President Ever Award. Pelosi and the other communists didn't like. The biggest target an enemy goes after is the other countries economy and America as we know it is a foreign country to the Left.

 

[Romeo458]

Part of the housing market problem is that there is a near complete lack of "affordable" housing. ... And other good stuff...

Several years ago and I actually cared about the credit number I went to buy a bike. Being me I didn't want a brand new bike I want something use that it already had the value drops on it and I spotted one for $3000. We had hold of it and made a deal and when I went to get financing they said that they couldn't finance that one because I needed to spend more. I pointed to another one that was about $8000 or $10000 and I said so I can get that bite, they replied yes you can. I returned later with cash. We can't write you a loan for spending responsible amount, but if you want to spend a ridiculous amount... Come to think of it it was the same with my house when I went to get the mortgage for it. They wouldn't write me a loan for the 30k some odd dollars that I was able to get the house at because I wasn't spending enough. I ended up buying it on contract.

When this Corona thing hit and they started shutting down the economy I immediately knew that they were working on a controlled descent of the economy since i had seen before the collapse was definitely looming. The only thing that had been keeping our economy afloat was consumer confidence which is usually a large part of what keeps it afloat but business spending, Treasury bill indicators all of that was showing up like a mad hatter.

Also in I believe it was September the repo market had a crash.

Tri-Party Repo Market

Witnesses testified on potential risks to the tri-party repo market. A repo, or repurchase agreement, is a financial deal where one person sells an asset to another and agrees to buy back the asset at a pre-selected later date. A tri-party repo market is one where securities dealers fund their...

www.c-span.org

If they are going to push for the new modern monetary theory our economic model is going to need to go cashless, and how convenient there's a coin shortage since they stopped minting those normal velocity when Corona hit also.

The game is so obvious when you're not watching the news every day.

 

[Dirty D]

^^^^^^^^Spotted the next troll

Or someone with an odd sense of humor, let this one play out.

 

[atepointer]

^^^^^^^^Spotted the next troll

These clowns are not hard to spot. They join a firearms centric forum and first post is to the room that talks about mostly everything but firearms. They are here to 'poke the bear'.

 

[Dirty D]

These clowns are not hard to spot. They join a firearms centric forum and first post is to the room that talks about mostly everything but firearms. They are here to 'poke the bear'.

Then don’t give her/him/whatever the response that they are looking for. A troll is only a troll if you feed it.

 

[pmclaine]

Weird no one predicted a hoaxdemic back when this started......good times back then.

who is this ArmyJerry posting here in?

 

[Soulezoo]

I have a vague recollection of him.
Always spouting something about ammo.

 

[pmclaine]

I have a vague recollection of him.
Always spouting something about ammo.

Perhaps a specter from the future to come warn us of what lies ahead.

 

[D̷e̷v̷i̷l̷D̷o̷c̷A̷Z̷]

The powers that be will probably trigger a market crash in the last year of Trump's first term to kerp him from getting reelected.

This guy called it.

 

[Snipe260]

This guy called it.

yep

 

[PinesAndProjectiles]

^^^^^^^^Spotted the next troll

Do you always carry around an AED reviving dead shit?

 

[Flyingbullseye]

Do you always carry around an AED reviving dead shit?

Does your dumbass know the troll I pointed out has either been booted or deleted the post?

 

[PinesAndProjectiles]

Does your dumbass know the troll I pointed out has either been booted or deleted the post?

No shit. Hence the "Banned" flag next to his name.

 

[Jscb1b]

I have a vague recollection of him.
Always spouting something about ammo.

More ammo.

 

[D̷e̷v̷i̷l̷D̷o̷c̷A̷Z̷]

More ammo.

Yeah he got a perma ban. I bet he is still here running a VPN to get around stuff.