To buy or not to buy.....gold

[jheat308]

Re: To buy or not to buy.....gold

Spot on. please watch till end.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xU9WnKWamzA&feature=feedu

 

[SFree]

Re: To buy or not to buy.....gold

Water, gasoline, beans, and bullets.


Nothing else is of value

 

[WRM]

Re: To buy or not to buy.....gold

Let's see where we're at....

Had the OP purchased Gold on the day that he started the thread at $1538/oz, and with yesterday's close at $1835, he would have seen a 19% return, or 95% annual rate of return (minus dealer margins)....

Had his crystal ball been working perfectly and he bought at the low during this period ($1482 on 7/1), and sold at the high ($1880 on 8/23), he would have yielded a 27% return, or <span style="font-style: italic">182%</span> annual rate of return....

Obviously, only a fool would swap those mighty FRNs for Gold!...

Cheers,

Bill

 

[Maggot]

Re: To buy or not to buy.....gold

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: WRM</div><div class="ubbcode-body">

Had the OP purchased Gold on the day that he started the thread at $1538/oz, and with yesterday's close at $1835, he would have seen a 19% return, or 95% annual rate of return (minus dealer margins)....

Cheers,

Bill </div></div>

I did.

 

[ArcticLight]

Re: To buy or not to buy.....gold

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Shredder58</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Hmmm...I like to look at history for answers. When an investment looks to good to be true -- it probably is. When someone tells you now is the time to buy -- you probably just missed the boat and the opportunity.

Don't buy into the herd mentality! If you are serious, put some time and energy into studying the market (any market) for yourself before you buy. Lots of folks thought it was a sure thing and you were stupid if you didn't buy a house as a sure fire investment back around 2005/6. I guess those folks are looking pretty stupid right about now!

Let's really look at the history of Gold prices for just a quick minute. Back around 1979, when Gold was going crazy at about $700/oz, I'm sure folks were saying Buy Gold, Buy Gold!!! By around 1983 the price had dropped to about $400, and it pretty much stayed there until it started climbing 20 years later around 2003. Now we are in the middle of a crazy spike in prices...Buy Gold, Buy Gold!!! What will the price be next year, or 5-10 years from now? Your guess is as good as mine or anybody elses. Still look like such a great investment??? You decide...

If it was me and I had a bunch of Gold I had made a big profit on...now is the time to be selling all or some of it. Then wait for the next dip in prices (which will come) if I wanted to buy more. Too many people end up getting into investments and "buy high, sell low". The idea is to "buy low, sell high"!!!

I'm a big fan of Warren Buffett (Jimmy Buffett's uncle by the way). If you are not familiar with "The Oracle of Omaha", then I suggest you do some research. Anyway, let me share a quote from Warren Buffett, "Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful". I have found this to be a pretty good investment strategy myself. Buy low, sell high.

</div></div>


I've learned all of this the hard, and expensive way!

Funny, of all the stocks I watch, TEAVANA holdings - always going up...my investments are up and down and I get out wtih a stop limit daily - messed up...but it is working, slowly but surely.


I have 1000 silver dimes I am considering putting up for sale now...

 

[Shredder58]

Re: To buy or not to buy.....gold

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: ArcticLight</div><div class="ubbcode-body">

I've learned all of this the hard, and expensive way!

...my investments are up and down...but it is working, slowly but surely.
</div></div>

Me too

!!!

 

[WRM]

Re: To buy or not to buy.....gold

I just noticed and checked out this tool yesterday:
http://money.cnn.com/data/commodities/?iid=C_MT_Commodities

If you look at the rise in prices of those commodities over the past year, Wheat and Heating Oil were only up 6-7%, and everything else was up double-digits except silver (triple digits).

And our "official" inflation rate is 2%? Yea, RIGHT!...

Bill

 

[Maggot]

Re: To buy or not to buy.....gold

 

[WRM]

Re: To buy or not to buy.....gold

http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au3650nyb.html

Using the 10-yr low/high from that chart, gold is up 599% in 10 years....

Bill

 

[Mo_Zam_Beek]

Re: To buy or not to buy.....gold

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: WRM</div><div class="ubbcode-body">
And our "official" inflation rate is 2%? Yea, RIGHT!... </div></div>

I track CPI for job related reasons. They have and continue to make changes to the way they report CPI in part b/c of the number of transfer payments that they are required to make. Real inflation has been tracking at more like 6%.


Good luck


ETA - the graph is scary. If one believes that the worth of gold should be set at that value - it doesn't bode well for America. Conversely the alternate reality is that it is due for a strong correction. Recently I started looking at the relative pricing structure between gold and silver over the last four decades. Next I think I will look at the same structure against the dollar. It will be interesting to see the the margin of the commodities against the time value of money.

 

[WRM]

Re: To buy or not to buy.....gold

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Mo_Zam_Beek</div><div class="ubbcode-body">... Conversely the alternate reality is that it is due for a strong correction... </div></div>

I look at this from a different perspective than most... You hear a lot about a "gold bubble". To me, when a bubble pops, there is nothing left - zero. Gold has never been worth zero in any society in recorded history - it has always had value.

Take a look at the chart in this article:
http://sovereign-investor.com/2011/09/01/gold-in-a-bubble-not-yet/
Using their trends, a strong correction would be for gold to drop to $1500. I think gold has said "goodbye" to even the 1600s, because if it drops that low, plenty are waiting with cash-in-hand to scarf it up.

The Constitution, Art. 1, Sect 10, states that only gold and silver coin are to be used for payment of debt (summarized). Gold has been "money" for thousands of years. Despite what the Fed chairman told Ron Paul, Gold IS money, and not just an "asset". The "bubble" isn't gold - it's FRNs. The only way for gold to have a strong correction would be for the (FR) Dollar to significantly increase its' worth. Creating/printing more $$$s isn't going to do that.

I also hear people saying "the dollar's strong - it's holding up against Euro, Peso, etc.", but that is comparing one non-backed Fiat currency against another, and they are all losing against commodities.

As most of my assets are not in gold/silver, I don't like to see gold/silver go up, because that means my $$$s buy less. But if the dollar tanks, I'll at least have a small portion of my assets covered - I won't lose everything....

Good luck to us all,

Bill

 

[Maggot]

Re: To buy or not to buy.....gold

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: WRM</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Mo_Zam_Beek</div><div class="ubbcode-body">... Conversely the alternate reality is that it is due for a strong correction... </div></div>

I look at this from a different perspective than most... You hear a lot about a "gold bubble". To me, when a bubble pops, there is nothing left - zero. Gold has never been worth zero in any society in recorded history - it has always had value.

Take a look at the chart in this article:
http://sovereign-investor.com/2011/09/01/gold-in-a-bubble-not-yet/
Using their trends, a strong correction would be for gold to drop to $1500. I think gold has said "goodbye" to even the 1600s, because if it drops that low, plenty are waiting with cash-in-hand to scarf it up.

The Constitution, Art. 1, Sect 10, states that only gold and silver coin are to be used for payment of debt (summarized). Gold has been "money" for thousands of years. Despite what the Fed chairman told Ron Paul, Gold IS money, and not just an "asset". The "bubble" isn't gold - it's FRNs. The only way for gold to have a strong correction would be for the (FR) Dollar to significantly increase its' worth. Creating/printing more $$$s isn't going to do that.

<span style="color: #FF0000">I also hear people saying "the dollar's strong - it's holding up against Euro, Peso, etc.", but that is comparing one non-backed Fiat currency against another, and they are all losing against commodities. </span>

As most of my assets are not in gold/silver, I don't like to see gold/silver go up, because that means my $$$s buy less. But if the dollar tanks, I'll at least have a small portion of my assets covered - I won't lose everything....

Good luck to us all,

Bill </div></div>

Compare it to the Swiss Franc. The Franc is up 30% in the last couple years. The problem for them is that it makes exports impossible. No silver bullets.

As you stated, gold has "always had value". Not only that but it has almost always been the standard by which everything else is valued.

When the economy turns the attractivenness of gold will diminish, but it will always be the standard.

 

[Mo_Zam_Beek]

Re: To buy or not to buy.....gold

People need to recognize "gold always has value", is marketing ploy. Correctly stated gold will always enjoy <span style="font-weight: bold">a</span> value that commands an eqivalency as a trade commodity or currency. However, that value <span style="font-style: italic">may or may not</span> correspond to the value offered by individual investor when the commodity was originally acquired.

In other words, even if gold always has value it would be very easy for one to find themselves in a negative position after a correction given today's price structure.


Good luck

 

[Shredder58]

Re: To buy or not to buy.....gold

Be greedy when others are fearful...and fearful whan others are greedy

!!!

 

[FX44]

Re: To buy or not to buy.....gold

If you have available funds or are looking for a place to park cash to save right now than go ahead and buy it. Gold is a hedge to protect your purchasing power for the future. Gold is artificially suppressed by the gov't and big banks however they can only suppress it so much. 1 troy oz. is truly worth about $2450 in today's dollars. This is why you are seeing gold go up, it's going back to its original value. If you really want to hedge and protect your money start buying silver but that's a new thread.

 

[sharac]

Re: To buy or not to buy.....gold

Exactly though targets you mentioned are very very conservative. Many say gold will hit 2k-2.1k this year silver target is around 100-130 in the final run (probably 70 this year if Wynter group stages another attack).

Just don't compare 1980 with today as situation is totally different, yes there will be a parabola but atm. we are in the start of the upleg. I missed opportunity to get some more stash in July (vacation

) and expected additional correction in August however while correction it was it stayed well above previous level which can only mean that physical@1800 is cheap, physical@1700 is gods gift.

DYOD and just remember this times are not your usual mini economic waves. This are most probably end times of life as we know it.

 

[Mo_Zam_Beek]

Re: To buy or not to buy.....gold

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Sharac</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Exactly though targets you mentioned are very very conservative. Many say gold will hit 2k-2.1k this year silver target is around 100-130 in the final run (probably 70 this year if Wynter group stages another attack).

DYOD and just remember this times are not your usual mini economic waves. This are most probably end times of life as we know it. </div></div>

While not completely done yet, I have done enough to know that over the last several decades the relative value of silver to gold is about 2%. By extrapolation $130.00 an ounce silver values would correspond to $6,500 / oz gold.

I think people should recognize that traditional market forces for these two commodities in particular have been corrupted due to the sky is falling marketing pitch. Stop and think about that, if it really is biblical - you can not eat it and its trade value would pale in comparison to farm land, a laying hen, or a goat. If it isn't biblical then it means a move toward a different fiat currency. Sure it is a portable store of value, however it is also one that has, and could be yet again heavily influenced by law.

In sum, not saying it isn't worth having some metals around, but I am saying that I do believe current values have been manipulated upward.


Good luck

 

[FX44]

Re: To buy or not to buy.....gold

Gold hit $1914 an oz this morning (while the Asian markets were trading). I read more and more articles like this:
http://www.benzinga.com/etfs/commodities...nd-of-september

and there is no doubt in my mind.

 

[sharac]

Re: To buy or not to buy.....gold

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">but I am saying that I do believe current values have been manipulated upward.</div></div>

I believe its exactly the opposite. Remember it's all about capital flows and right now those are running out of fiat. Moving large quantities of capital takes time and is not one day event. I think biblical proportions are pretty much correct however for events to unfold it will take some time and this time (measured in years) gold/silver will be perfect store of value however as i've said in some other posts that should not take precedence over guns/ammo, food/farmland and friends/safe place.

Still i see no point in going further as there is ton of information on the net for everyone interested to read and make their own minds.

 

[Maggot]

Re: To buy or not to buy.....gold

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: FX44</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Gold hit $1914 an oz this morning (while the Asian markets were trading). I read more and more articles like this:
http://www.benzinga.com/etfs/commodities...nd-of-september

and there is no doubt in my mind.

</div></div>Excellent article, but it only scratched the surface.

 

[mexicanmatch]

Re: To buy or not to buy.....gold

If you are going to buy gold then buy it from the mint in coins. Then send them to N G C to be graded and sealed in a clear holder that has a bar code and a hologram.
check out www.coasttocoastcoins.com for daily updates.