Are you referring to the 'Great Reset'? I don't even see the deficit spending debacle bringing big inflation for several more years. The next decade is going to be way more insane than that last with plenty of dips, consolidation and then upward rips. I believe the perma-bears are going to get run over twice are hard this decade sitting by watching indexes climb up and away again.
I think that it depends heavily on how the war between Globalists vs Populatist/Nationalists pans out. If the Globalist triumph currency will be much more stratified with some sort of financial instrument out of the IMF/BiS used as a reserve currency by governments, banks, and corporations and a 21st century digital version of "credit at the company store" for ordinary people. If the Populist win you apparently already know about that answer, Precious metals backed currency and maybe decentralized cryptos. My opinions on that is really just based on what the thought leaders of those factions say, what the future actually hold no one can say with any certainty. Oh and the Biden Regime will accelerate this change, but I disagree that it's the cause.
What are you basing market valuations on? Are you taking into considering the insanely low treasury yields? The market cap of the 5 largest SnP companies is 22% of the total index capitalization. The bottom 250 companies is less than 10% of the market cap. So, if you are an ETF/Index fund guy yea it could be scary and better pay attention. If you know exactly what you own you can choose your battles by buying shares of companies who use leverage responsibly. I'm continually shocked at how few investors actually know what companies they actually own with an ETF. We already got a taste of what ETF/Index unwinding can look like last summer.....margin calls....sell at any price covenants from hedge funds and mark to market accounting causing huge inaccurate pricing distortions.
dryburgh.com
Ok well hmm if you want to expound on that feel free and if not I wish you well in your investing career. I *think* possibly I understand when you are talking pricing on securities which cover indexes like an SPY for example when you say 'market prices'? It's so vague I can't tell if you think every ticker under the DJIA, SnP etc is doomed, certain sectors or just some bad financial engineering actors. I would submit if you think all companies across the board are overvalued that is simply not accurate in any way. There are still plenty of sectors and companies who are run well and distribute to shareholders monthly and quarterly with room for capital growth and dividend growth.
www.tradingview.com
It would nice to have world reserve currency backed by gold. The only problem is that no country in the world has enough gold as a backing for its currency for use both INSIDE and OUTSIDE the country (as such country would need to issue more money for the "world needs".)
It is called purchasing power and you seldom read about it because it is nothing the rulers want you to understand
Well, that all depends on how much gold is worth then doesn't it? I'm not promoting or disputing anything here, just pointing out that it is possible to have gold backed currency, it would just make gold much more valuable. It's also possible to have an asset backed currency where gold was one of a few things in a " basket" , which would be used to back the currency. For example, a nation could use "oil reserves, gold/silver/platinum/Palladium, and their annual GDP, to set their currency value... or some other similar basket.
This is a more dominant force than M2.This is like asking which truck brand is going to be better in 10 years but * a billion.
First, Trump was in charge when the dollar really took a hard effing. Have a look at how much M2 stock has grown (read: money printed):
M2 Money Stock (FRED:WM2NS) — Historical Data and Chart — TradingView
Free economic data, indicators & statistics. M2 Money Stock from FRED.
No, that's not all time history -- that's just last year you're lookin' at there! Holy fuckballs batman -- I'm not sure Biden has a dick big enough to fuck the whole the last admin dug.
Anyway, obviously we all get it -- we're screwed. Kind of. The thing is we've been having currency wars for a few decades and most people just weren't paying attention. There are so many gears and systems that are involved it's far more complicated than saying which currency will survive on top -- it's really not about surviving at all.
You see, this is not an accident. This is by design. The Fed has been trying to spur inflation for years.
Think about it like this... you're 30 Trillion dollars in debt... how do you deal with that? You make 30 trillion worth less, obviously. You're not in government so clearly you're too stupid to understand why that's obviously the right thing to do! /sarcasm
I'm not giving financial advice here, don't take it as such -- but I, me personally -- not advice, think almost anything that is secured is a investment at this point, even debt. By secured I mean a physical asset, particularly assets known to appreciate. Why not, it's the same logic the fed is using and given what we saw last year I'm pretty fuckin' sure they're going to get what they want no matter how fucked the general populace ends up for them to get it.
Me, here's my thought -- and it's a nutty one so feel free to poke fun. I think within 5 years we will have broadband internet via satellite across the country. Service good enough to work from home in the middle of nowhere. People will start migrating away from cities because most of those city jobs are... now work from home. In a similar time I expect we'll see solar meet a point where being completely off any wired grid financially sound.
All that is to say -- I think all this worthless sub $1k an acre land in incredible locations around the country are going to become worth a lot more as people rapidly evacuate shithole cities. So, that's where I've invested my cash -- for the most part. And, a big plus is you can use it to hunt and whatever you want until it's value increases -- if it doesn't who gives an S, you had decades of great fun on great land and you leave it to your kids to enjoy and raise their kids.
Think of it like this... follow the money. More than a year ago the super rich started buying up land in obscure areas. People speculated that it was so they had a place to flee to if things went south and the b00g happened. Was it, though? Is that why, or were they investing. Think about that. They bought billions in land around the country right before the M2 went apeshit. Coincidence?
100% great post. Our banks don't need more money it's a foolish flush b/c it's not being lent out nor are people taking on as much debt as the Fed wishes....they need hordes of drunken sailors. The velocity of money has gone down in a dramatic fashion since 08 and while Fed bobble heads never answer it directly they will blame it on a business cycle or some other 'look over there' talking point. They can put their foot on the short end of the curve and that is it.....when this eventually goes poof it's going to be biblical. No matter how they sugar coat it the transactional activity is cratering and the supply is not turning over. Wish I knew the when of that and hope I'm pushing up daisies in the front yard by that time. David Stockman has been warning it's just around the corner for 40 years.....one day like a busted clock he will be right. HIs book The Great Deformation: The Corruption of Capitalism in America is a great read. Last tabulation I read the world is awash in ~ $14T of negative yielding sovereign bonds.This is a more dominant force than M2.
Velocity of M2 Money Stock
View data of the frequency at which one unit of currency purchases domestically produced goods and services within a given time period.fred.stlouisfed.org
When that drops below 1 each additional dollar of deficit spending will have both a real and nominal negative ROI.
People think the Fed is holding interest rates low when in fact they are holding the curve over 0%. IOER holds rates positive. Issuing trillions of bonds across the treasury curve is to overwhelm bond investor demand and keep rates positive. The second rates go negative, the entire system goes into a rapid death spiral implosion.
Land will be taxed if the system can hold and it won't.
