Price Check in the Gas and Diesel Aisle...

[Hobo Hilton]

MSN

www.msn.com

So, what do you make of these reports ?
Could be an honest warning to get ready.
Could be propaganda... But the oil companies are rollin' in cash and don't need any more push.
Could be "supply chain" ripple effect that would only be seen on a regional basis. Enough product, just in the wrong place.
For me, I'll make sure to have enough diesel to get me through until the spring thaw.

 

[lariat]

So, what do you make of these reports ?
Could be an honest warning to get ready.
Could be propaganda... But the oil companies are rollin' in cash and don't need any more push.
Could be "supply chain" ripple effect that would only be seen on a regional basis. Enough product, just in the wrong place.
For me, I'll make sure to have enough diesel to get me through until the spring thaw.

Not totally sure. I'm trying to follow the incoming data points with this one as it is so critical to the world's economy. Im not inclined to think it is propaganda. When adding this to the cost of fertilizer, if neither improves in availability and cost, we are looking at supply side inflation that filters down to the food supply in a myriad of ways.

 

[E. Bryant]

You don't believe they will try to open up the oil fields in the US?

They'll make a bunch of noise like Drill Baby Drill but won't fix the refinery crunch.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Not totally sure. I'm trying to follow the incoming data points with this one as it is so critical to the world's economy. Im not inclined to think it is propaganda. When adding this to the cost of fertilizer, if neither improves in availability and cost, we are looking at supply side inflation that filters down to the food supply in a myriad of ways.

Your statement caused me to pause and refresh my memory:
And when he had opened the third seal, I heard the third beast say, Come and see. And I beheld, and see a black horse; and he that sat on him had a pair of balances in his hand. [6] And I heard a voice in the middle of the four beasts say, A measure of wheat for a penny, and three measures of barley for a penny; and see you hurt not the oil and the wine.

 

[lariat]

They'll make a bunch of noise like Drill Baby Drill but won't fix the refinery crunch.

This is what I am seeing as well. If all refined petroleum products run into a shortage at the same time we could see a serious congestion at the refineries. In 2020 there were tankers full of oil cruising around in the ocean with nowhere to go, now here we are.

Blast from the past:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/business/oil-markets-tankers.html

Today's refinery issue (high level):

Refinery closures decreased U.S. refinery capacity during 2020 - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

www.eia.gov

American oil refineries shutter amid Biden's hostile fossil fuel policies, adding to pain at the pump: expert

LyondellBasell, the owner of one of the oldest refineries in Houston, became just the latest refinery to close amid rising gas prices.

www.foxbusiness.com

Lack of Growth in Petroleum Refinery Development Contributes to High Fuel Prices

The bottleneck in America’s refineries is among the foremost causes of high fuel prices, a phenomenon spurred in large part by federal policy.

thetexan.news

“My personal view is there will never be another refinery built in the U.S.,” Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said in June as gas prices jumped.

The last new major petroleum refinery in the U.S. was constructed in 1976 in Garyville, Louisiana. Since then, additions have been made to numerous refineries, but each is a modest jump in the nation’s total refining capacity."

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Long ago the refinery had an in house team that planned and executed a turn around (shut down).
Today there has to be "Conferences" before the turn around.
Those speakers at the conferences never burned a welding rod or made up a flange..... Unfortunate for "We the People".

One such example:

Chem / Petrochem and Refinery Shutdowns and Turnarounds Conference - marcus evans Conferences

Chem / Petrochem and Refinery Shutdowns and Turnarounds Conference | 02 August-04 August 2022 | Embassy Suites by Hilton San Antonio Brooks | San Antonio | TX

www.marcusevans.com

 

[babyguppy]

This is what I am seeing as well. If all refined petroleum products run into a shortage at the same time we could see a serious congestion at the refineries. In 2020 there were tankers full of oil cruising around in the ocean with nowhere to go, now here we are.

Blast from the past:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/business/oil-markets-tankers.html

Today's refinery issue (high level):

Refinery closures decreased U.S. refinery capacity during 2020 - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

www.eia.gov

American oil refineries shutter amid Biden's hostile fossil fuel policies, adding to pain at the pump: expert

LyondellBasell, the owner of one of the oldest refineries in Houston, became just the latest refinery to close amid rising gas prices.

www.foxbusiness.com

Lack of Growth in Petroleum Refinery Development Contributes to High Fuel Prices

The bottleneck in America’s refineries is among the foremost causes of high fuel prices, a phenomenon spurred in large part by federal policy.

thetexan.news

“My personal view is there will never be another refinery built in the U.S.,” Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said in June as gas prices jumped.

The last new major petroleum refinery in the U.S. was constructed in 1976 in Garyville, Louisiana. Since then, additions have been made to numerous refineries, but each is a modest jump in the nation’s total refining capacity."

Business won't build another refinery in the US without some sort of Federal subsidy or contract from the FED. Businesses are afraid of investing that much $$ just to get screwed.
edit - especially when the man speaks

My personal view is there will never be another refinery built in the U.S.,” Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said in June as gas prices jumped.​

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Seems no one can define where "oil" is heading.

Oil Shortage Forecasts Clash With Grim Economic Projections | OilPrice.com

Oil markets are being pulled in all directions as fears of a global economic slowdown clash with the potential of a massive supply shortage

oilprice.com

 

[BullGear]

There's so much disinformation out there. It would seem that each will report whatever best suits them at the moment. That's why things are so screwed up. There's really no real information out there.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

There's so much disinformation out there. It would seem that each will report whatever best suits them at the moment. That's why things are so screwed up. There's really no real information out there.

That is why I rely so much on Mother Nature and "The Law's of Nature".... Unfortunate I have to look at the outside world as a "jungle" but that is where society is evolving to.
Herd mentality, the Lone Wolf, thin ice, howling wind, dog growling, leaves dry as corn flakes...
Our young people are so distanced from nature they can't identify harmful people, harmful animals or harmful situations.

Always have enough fuel in the tank to get yourself home.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

WTI did trade above $90 today, briefly

WTI Crude •	89.26	+0.89	+1.01%
Brent Crude •	95.58	+0.93	+0.98%

US Residential Heating Oil Price​

5.832 USD/gal for Wk of Oct 31 2022

 

[babyguppy]

I'm waiting to see if BFC's predictions some true next month about the price of oil. 70's
If he's close, he's gong to become my new unofficial series 7 guy.

BigFatCock said on page 15,​

I’m looking for $75 by December to close everything out again.​

World wide demand destruction due to EV’s and people being broke AF.​

​

I'm still wondering if it'll creep along 85 - 90 with winter coming in and the war still lingering in Ukraine.
I think the oil analyst on the web screaming 120's was just trying to dump his contracts.

 

[BullGear]

I'm waiting to see if BFC's predictions some true next month about the price of oil. 70's
If he's close, he's gong to become my new unofficial series 7 guy.

BigFatCock said on page 15,​

I’m looking for $75 by December to close everything out again.​

World wide demand destruction due to EV’s and people being broke AF.​

​

I'm still wondering if it'll creep along 85 - 90 with winter coming in and the war still lingering in Ukraine.
I think the oil analyst on the web screaming 120's was just trying to dump his contracts.

It will depend on who controls the House and Senate. If the Demwits keep them, crude oil will be closer to $100/barrel. But I do see it getting very close to $75 regardless of who's in control.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

It will depend on who controls the House and Senate. If the Demwits keep them, crude oil will be closer to $100/barrel. But I do see it getting very close to $75 regardless of who's in control.

There are Billions of $$$ at work (Private and Government) to "stave off" the inevitable recession. Thousands of programs need to be de-funded and allowed to fall flat on their face. Our country has turned into a Metaverse.... Americans are enthralled with an IPhone and make believe worlds.
We will witness a "Wake Up Call" on steroids when the House of Cards collapses.

Metaverse - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Hobo Hilton]

WTI Crude •	91.13	+2.96	+3.36%
Brent Crude •	97.44	+2.77	+2.93%

US Residential Heating Oil Price is at a current level of 5.832, up from 5.699 last week and up from 3.397 one year ago. This is a change of 2.33% from last week and 71.68% from one year ago.

US Residential Heating Oil Price

In depth view into US Residential Heating Oil Price including historical data from 1990, charts and stats.

ycharts.com

 

[Marinevet1]

Diesel, $4.65 at Costco in K.C. yesterday.......

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Oil Prices Climb Despite Growing Recession Concerns | OilPrice.com

The Federal Reserve's increasingly hawkish stance failed to hold oil prices back as fresh rumors circulated that China was easing its Covid restrictions

oilprice.com

 

[Maxduty]

Diesel was 5.13 two days ago at Loves east of OKC

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The oil companies will simply "sustain" their positions without risking anything due to politics.

U.S. Rig Count Still 305 Below Pre-Pandemic Levels | OilPrice.com

The U.S. oil rig count gained 3 rigs this week while the gas rig count fell slightly, but the total number of rigs continues to trail pre-pandemic levels

oilprice.com

 

[sirhrmechanic]

$6.49 a Gallon in People's Republic of Pennsylvania today.

But there is no inflation...

Sirhr

 

[babyguppy]

$6.49 a Gallon in People's Republic of Pennsylvania today.

But there is no inflation...

Sirhr

you guys need to close down all your coal industry, then the price will go down... Joe told me so, he met the dude who invented insulin and the guy who invented the internet.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

you guys need to close down all your coal industry, then the price will go down... Joe told me so, he met the dude who invented insulin and the guy who invented the internet.

"THE WORLD ACCORDING TO JOE"
That's enough scary thoughts for today.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

WTI Crude •	92.02	+0.23	+0.25%
Brent Crude •	97.92	-0.65	-0.66%

Heating oil 5.832

Residential Heating Oil Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March)

 

[Hobo Hilton]

WTI Crude •	87.51	-1.40	-1.57%
Brent Crude •	93.85	-1.51	-1.58%

North America’s Largest Refinery Restarts Units After Overhaul | OilPrice.com

The Port Arthur refinery is set to see fuel production climb as its owner restarts units after an overhaul that lasted more than a month

oilprice.com

 

[babyguppy]

WTI Crude •	87.51	-1.40	-1.57%
Brent Crude •	93.85	-1.51	-1.58%

View attachment 7995107

North America’s Largest Refinery Restarts Units After Overhaul | OilPrice.com

The Port Arthur refinery is set to see fuel production climb as its owner restarts units after an overhaul that lasted more than a month

oilprice.com

My guess on Kerosene, it stores longer than Diesel. You have a Genset, you buy a big barrel of Kerosene. You can use it in your lamps or Genset, Truck if times are hard due to cost.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Today:
South of Missoula... Diesel - $5.319 / Gallon
Up $0.44 in the past 2 months.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

WTI Crude •	89.64	+0.68	+0.76%
Brent Crude •	96.73	+0.74	+0.77%

Heating Oil ($/gallon)	NY Harbor	4.35	-2.7
Gulf Coast	3.29	-3.8

The Growing Anti-OPEC Movement Is Disasterous For Oil Markets | OilPrice.com

The idea of an oil buyers club to counter the influence of OPEC has been floated several times, but the consequences of forming such a club would be significant

oilprice.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Americans To See Highest Thanksgiving Gasoline Prices Ever | OilPrice.com

This year’s average U.S. gasoline prices on Thanksgiving are expected to be at their highest level ever for the holiday and beat the previous record from Thanksgiving of 2012

oilprice.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

WTI Crude •	86.79	+0.92	+1.07%
Brent Crude •	93.70	+0.56	+0.60%

Poland is holding an emergency meeting of the National Security Committee after a report surfaced that a suspected missile has struck a village in Poland, killing two.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

WTI Crude •	84.09	-1.50	-1.75%
Brent Crude •	91.81	-1.05	-1.13%

Another bench mark has been reached:

World Oil Demand Topped Pre-Covid Levels In September | OilPrice.com

According to new data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative, global oil demand exceeded pre-Covid levels in September

oilprice.com

 

[davsco]

Diesel, $4.65 at Costco in K.C. yesterday.......

interesting, haven't seen diesel at any costco's around here (NOVA).

lately diesel is a solid two friggin bucks above 87 gas, so in the $5.80 range.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

interesting, haven't seen diesel at any costco's around here (NOVA).

lately diesel is a solid two friggin bucks above 87 gas, so in the $5.80 range.

Yep... Should my next 3/4 ton pickup be a gas burner ?

 

[Arrowhead 17]

They'll make a bunch of noise like Drill Baby Drill but won't fix the refinery crunch.

I live on the northwest edge of the Permian Basin, the largest oil producing area in the US, and they are drilling like crazy and selling ever drop they can produce while my state and the feds continue to make things more difficult. 87 octane gas is $3.59 as of last Saturday. One of these days the existing permits will be drilled up and with our current Washington occupiers things are going to really get tough.

As to refineries, what company would commit to building one or making large improvements when they will only be tied up in litigation for 20 to 30 years by environmental groups.

 

[TACC]

$3.17 regular at Costco in South Florida

 

[Marinevet1]

Diesel $4.75 at local Quick Trip, $4.47 at Costco in KC Mo.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Down... Perhaps the recession is getting some traction.

WTI Crude •	78.70	-2.94	-3.60%
Brent Crude •	86.83	-2.95	-3.29%

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Today’s Energy Crisis Is Unlike Anything We’ve Ever Seen Before | OilPrice.com

Today’s energy crisis is unlike anything the world has ever experienced, and finding a solution will prove to be difficult

oilprice.com

 

[n2ishun]

This seems......odd ?

European Refiners Now Have Too Much Oil | OilPrice.com

European refiners now seem to have more crude oil than they need, and the extra supply is now starting to weigh on crude prices

oilprice.com

 

[Bigfatcock]

Still short, and price target is still $75 per barrel before Christmas.

Besides, joe Brandon needs the political win of buying oil for the SPR at $72 per barrel.

 

[E. Bryant]

This seems......odd ?

European Refiners Now Have Too Much Oil | OilPrice.com

European refiners now seem to have more crude oil than they need, and the extra supply is now starting to weigh on crude prices

oilprice.com

Not odd at all. Their constraint is similar to ours not enough refining capacity. Fix that, and then you have the problem of too much gasoline because refining doesn't yield sufficient amounts of diesel.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

As of November 21, the average retail diesel price in the United States was $5.233 per gallon, or $1.509/gal higher than at this time last year. To compare, the average gasoline price in the U.S. on the same day was $0.253 per gallon higher than a year ago, EIA data showed.

The Diesel Crunch Is Finally Causing Demand Destruction | OilPrice.com

Diesel inventories have been at multi-decade lows in the last couple of weeks, but now there are signs that demand destruction is leading to growing inventories

oilprice.com

 

[babyguppy]

So, I drove through KS and Missouri the other day... I noticed a few farms had unharvested cotton fields.
I'm not completely familiar with the crops harvest period in those states
my question is - When is Cotton in these states normally harvested? I'm wondering if they took a crop insurance loss; since it might have been cheaper to write off the loss, then spend the money to harvest (fuel costs, equipment costs, etc.).

 

[babyguppy]

Still short, and price target is still $75 per barrel before Christmas.

Besides, joe Brandon needs the political win of buying oil for the SPR at $72 per barrel.

You heard it here first from BFC ^

Price for a barrel of oil
77.24
USD0.00 (0.00%) today
November 27, 7:00 PM EST

 

[Bigfatcock]

 

[babyguppy]

View attachment 8009494

hope you made money on that dip below 75

 

[Maggot]

$2.73 today

 

[Hobo Hilton]

WTI Crude •	80.61	+2.41	+3.08%
Brent Crude •	85.25	+2.22	+2.67%

There will always be a "reason" to charge the consumer more for fuel.



https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Escalating-Protests-In-China-Add-To-Oil-Market-Volatility.html

 

[Marinevet1]

Costco in Kansas City today, gas $2.87, diesel $4.27.........

 

[eflyguy]

$2.559 here.

 

[Bigfatcock]

All of my oil shorts are closed. Will start scaling into long positions, and scaling into shorts on DRIP and SCO. I see oil going higher after Christmas. Should remain low through Christmas to keep the natives from getting restless. Very cautious here though.