Well we all view the world through a different lens.....age and experiences can shift that view a lot. None of us will know if we are right today until history unfolds a bit more. While I don't focus on growth in general or tech specifically I can't speak to Apple/Disney decisions. 2008 was a banking solvency crisis...is that your parallel to Apple/Dis? You think they will become insolvent or you are worried about earnings revisions and share price? There is no question earnings the rest of the year will be no fun at all for a huge swath of the S&P500. I'm not worried about banks one bit other than a few in the O&G world....Dodd-Frank made sure banks went so far the other direction it's amazing. But I get being concerned about earnings anyone with skin in the game has to accept that reality. Credit markets in the non-investment grade world could get in trouble, but I don't eat at that table either so it's not making me nervous. Again, knowing exactly what you own and why is paramount at all times.
TP never works well...kind of falls apart and then she has dried TP on her. Good cotton towel works dandy.
This can't be stressed enough....never invest a dime you can't afford to see vanish to 0 over night b/c it can. I think this is part of the reason so many investors lose their minds when they look at their portfolio and gasp rather than being tactical about it. Add in margin to that and people literally have panic attacks.
I'm both old and experienced...LOL. You make good points but my lens is definitely a bit different.
No question all of that could happen I get where you are coming from now. I feel the chances it does happen are less than it does though and boy do I want to be right. Everyone has to do what they are comfortable with and there has been some really great sharing of ideas on this thread thanks to those incluidng you.
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It's not the people you should worry about but the high frequency trading computer's that will crash this market in seconds
Either way you slice it.
+1
Are you watching insider buying/selling of your holdings? Not an industry average metric, but what are the officers of what you own doing. You have to look deeper b/c many C-suite execs get a large portion of their pay package from shares and are required to sell %'s at pre-negotiated dates. Companies with great balance sheets who have been hammered the insiders are devouring the fire sale prices. Sales are specified as automatic sell, option, direct etc. Takes time, but is incredibly revealing about if they practice what they preach. I will never blame anyone for cashing in their chips on a vesting schedule, but it's awfully telling of the folks who don't believe what they say.
Oh div slashing is not an if just a when. That's where preferred shares will pay off downstream when it comes they are higher up the capital stack. At least that is the plan. Stay frosty it ain't over yet!I have heard that Delta is going to remove dividends for now. I heard it from a pretty credible source but I haven't seen any word of it anywhere else.
If I were in your position and were invested, I would stay the course. I got out some time ago and have been evaluating when to go back in. I plan on waiting a bit longer but I know what my portfolio will be. I have been tracking it for the last two months and it has done OK with the ups and downs. It is easy when there is nothing at stake
That is what stock buybacks are for , you holding stock have nice and warm feeling as stock is propred up and value of your portfolio goes up (you would be much better served with higher dividend) but the execs that are cashing out all the time are the ones realy benefiting . Stock buybacks used to be illegal for a a good reson as they are used to game the system for the insiders at the same time they are picking all the meat of the bones , and some companies have been hollowed out by stock buybacks even before the market crashed. Boeing will likely need huge injections or even nationalisation to survive.
I don't have any stake in companies participating in buybacks at present, but it wouldn't cause me to not look at a company who has used them wisely. To simply throw every buyback program into a binary decision as capitulation is a bit of an overreaction IMO. As long as the cost of debt and div yield are fairly close it can be a very wise use of money for both the company and the shareholder when companies get dragged down by bad news in a sector....doesn't mean every company is a dumpster fire. When there are huge gaps in rev and EPS performance then it's clear a company is gaming the system. Again this is where homework comes into play. Value investing is getting so crowded now the easy picking deals are harder to find and they are so thinly traded they can skyrocket or plummet in a flash. I'm not going to simply dump one of my holdings if they decide to do a small buyback especially if it happens now as several have been severely punished along with the poorly run companies they compete against simply b/c they inhabit the same space.
Stick a fork in this market and the economy the Great depression part 2 has arrived
OK, I’ll bite. Relative to what ? The Euro ? The CH Franc ? What ?
It's time to go back to real money in the US Constitution Gold and Silver.
