Reaction to today's stock market

[Nik H]

No doubt this same mentality reaches into credit markets as well. Again, knowing what you own and why can change the view of this current climate from one of total panic and fear to that of calm and buying opportunity. I don't think this is a 'financial situation' in the light of 2008 though. High yield gets in trouble when recessions come it's just life. Bank health today vs 2008 isn't even comparable. We've been in a Bull market for 11 years and I think we have an entire generation of investors who have no idea what a recession looks like or what's likely to happen.

My opinion is when it is all said and done, this has the ingredients to make 2008 seem like a minor issue. Companies are closing including Disney and all Apple Stores. Do you think Apple is shutting their doors to be altruistic or does it reflect an inability to get goods?

For me the jury is out.

 

[Nik H]

Why was that funny?

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

 

[myronman3]

well i took about a 35k haircut. i dont think this is anywhere near over, unfortunately. shits of it is that i KNEW about a month ago i should pull out-kinda like banging that hot stripper you manage to talk into your bed. things are going great and it feels good....so you get lazy and dont pull out. and THEN you pay. lol.

i’m sitting out for a while. i may miss out on some gains, but i may just make that 35k seem like chump change if i get back in before people calm the fuck down.

 

[SilentStalkr]

I say again, be careful with your money.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

You guys want to elaborate? Again, this is a famous quote:

“A fool will try and time the market, but a wise man knows that time in the market always wins.” - John Bogle

This sure as hell isnt the time to be pulling out. That would be stupid.

 

[Bigfatcock]

Pulling out isn’t my thing, lol.

All I’m saying is be careful, do your research all weekend (if you haven’t done so already), and have hard limits...and maybe a bit of patience.

The opportunity to make money is there, but so is the chance of losing your ass.

If you’re just now starting investing, ensure the money is throw away money. Not money that would add years to your retirement, or take food off the table.

 

[Nik H]

I like pulling out as long as I do the gentlemanly thing and have a towel waiting for her

 

[Bigfatcock]

I like pulling out as long as I do the gentlemanly thing and have a towel waiting for her

She damned sure isn’t going to use my toilet paper to wipe off.

Also, I’ve had two hookups cancel of fear of this dumb ass virus. There better not end up being a pussy shortage.

 

[FjallJager]

Never pull out, you turn a paper loss into a real loss. The market will come back. The smartest thing you could do is see if it drops and hop back in.

 

[atepointer]

My opinion is when it is all said and done, this has the ingredients to make 2008 seem like a minor issue. Companies are closing including Disney and all Apple Stores. Do you think Apple is shutting their doors to be altruistic or does it reflect an inability to get goods?

For me the jury is out.

Well we all view the world through a different lens.....age and experiences can shift that view a lot. None of us will know if we are right today until history unfolds a bit more. While I don't focus on growth in general or tech specifically I can't speak to Apple/Disney decisions. 2008 was a banking solvency crisis...is that your parallel to Apple/Dis? You think they will become insolvent or you are worried about earnings revisions and share price? There is no question earnings the rest of the year will be no fun at all for a huge swath of the S&P500. I'm not worried about banks one bit other than a few in the O&G world....Dodd-Frank made sure banks went so far the other direction it's amazing. But I get being concerned about earnings anyone with skin in the game has to accept that reality. Credit markets in the non-investment grade world could get in trouble, but I don't eat at that table either so it's not making me nervous. Again, knowing exactly what you own and why is paramount at all times.

 

[Nik H]

She damned sure isn’t going to use my toilet paper to wipe off.

TP never works well...kind of falls apart and then she has dried TP on her. Good cotton towel works dandy.

Sorry to hear about the cancellations. I would think there would be some desperate females out there

 

[atepointer]

If you’re just now starting investing, ensure the money is throw away money. Not money that would add years to your retirement, or take food off the table.

This can't be stressed enough....never invest a dime you can't afford to see vanish to 0 over night b/c it can. I think this is part of the reason so many investors lose their minds when they look at their portfolio and gasp rather than being tactical about it. Add in margin to that and people literally have panic attacks.

 

[SilentStalkr]

I’m not worried one bit. It’s coming back.

 

[Bigfatcock]

I’m not worried one bit. It’s coming back.

That’s a good attitude.

 

[Nik H]

Well we all view the world through a different lens.....age and experiences can shift that view a lot. None of us will know if we are right today until history unfolds a bit more. While I don't focus on growth in general or tech specifically I can't speak to Apple/Disney decisions. 2008 was a banking solvency crisis...is that your parallel to Apple/Dis? You think they will become insolvent or you are worried about earnings revisions and share price? There is no question earnings the rest of the year will be no fun at all for a huge swath of the S&P500. I'm not worried about banks one bit other than a few in the O&G world....Dodd-Frank made sure banks went so far the other direction it's amazing. But I get being concerned about earnings anyone with skin in the game has to accept that reality. Credit markets in the non-investment grade world could get in trouble, but I don't eat at that table either so it's not making me nervous. Again, knowing exactly what you own and why is paramount at all times.

I'm both old and experienced...LOL. You make good points but my lens is definitely a bit different.

No I am not thinking insolvency for companies like Apple or Disney. However, I view it as a domino effect.

1. Disney revenue for 2020 will definitely be down both because of the closure of parks and much lower movie rentals....people that work for Disney will lose their jobs as most park workers are min wage.
2. Same with Apple store personnel..I still believe their supply chain is precipitating the closure.
3. What about the lost revenue for sporting events....ticket sales...people who work the venues....TV advertising revenue...
4. Tourism will be extinguished for a few months which is horrendous news for EU and the airlines.
5. Oil glut will continue to wreak havoc.
6. Auto sales...can you get parts?

I can go on and on. Fact is when companies start revising revenue projections which is guaranteed, the market will have to reprice. Moreover, the fact that this can happen so quickly is an eye opener to many. I believe investors will rethink their practices. The reality of how horrendously oversold the market is will be front and center and come April when revisions are made across the board, there will be more carnage.

The 2008 bank insolvency was bad but it didn't have this many potential tributary effects.

Unfortunately, the fact is that the closures make sense. It will delay the spread and avert a catastrophe at the hospital level. It is necessary because sick people refuse to stay home and due to the asymptomatic transmission characteristics of COVID-19.

My driving mantra for investing is "Price is what you pay. Value is what you get." No one knows investing better than Buffet.

 

[broncoaz]

I like pulling out as long as I do the gentlemanly thing and have a towel waiting for her

Why would she need a towel to wipe her mouth out?

 

[atepointer]

I'm both old and experienced...LOL. You make good points but my lens is definitely a bit different.

No I am not thinking insolvency for companies like Apple or Disney. However, I view it as a domino effect.

1. Disney revenue for 2020 will definitely be down both because of the closure of parks and much lower movie rentals....people that work for Disney will lose their jobs as most park workers are min wage.
2. Same with Apple store personnel..I still believe their supply chain is precipitating the closure.
3. What about the lost revenue for sporting events....ticket sales...people who work the venues....TV advertising revenue...
4. Tourism will be extinguished for a few months which is horrendous news for EU and the airlines.
5. Oil glut will continue to wreak havoc.
6. Auto sales...can you get parts?

I can go on and on. Fact is when companies start revising revenue projections which is guaranteed, the market will have to reprice. Moreover, the fact that this can happen so quickly is an eye opener to many. I believe investors will rethink their practices. The reality of how horrendously oversold the market is will be front and center and come April when revisions are made across the board, there will be more carnage.

The 2008 bank insolvency was bad but it didn't have this many potential tributary effects.

Unfortunately, the fact is that the closures make sense. It will delay the spread and avert a catastrophe at the hospital level. It is necessary because sick people refuse to stay home and due to the asymptomatic transmission characteristics of COVID-19.

My driving mantra for investing is "Price is what you pay. Value is what you get." No one knows investing better than Buffet.

No question all of that could happen I get where you are coming from now. I feel the chances it does happen are less than it does though and boy do I want to be right. Everyone has to do what they are comfortable with and there has been some really great sharing of ideas on this thread thanks to those incluidng you.

I'm balls deep in it and staying in knowing I will certainly see more volatility. As long as the dividend slashing does't creep up the stack to preferred shares and baby bonds I'm ok with it and have given myself a 2 year window at share price recovery of any reasonable level. If div slashing blows though common shares that will certainly be a moment of pause.....here's to it not happening.

 

[Nik H]

No question all of that could happen I get where you are coming from now. I feel the chances it does happen are less than it does though and boy do I want to be right. Everyone has to do what they are comfortable with and there has been some really great sharing of ideas on this thread thanks to those incluidng you.

I'm balls deep in it and staying in knowing I will certainly see more volatility. As long as the dividend slashing does't creep up the stack to preferred shares and baby bonds I'm ok with it and have given myself a 2 year window at share price recovery of any reasonable level. If div slashing blows though common shares that will certainly be a moment of pause.....here's to it not happening.

I have heard that Delta is going to remove dividends for now. I heard it from a pretty credible source but I haven't seen any word of it anywhere else.

If I were in your position and were invested, I would stay the course. I got out some time ago and have been evaluating when to go back in. I plan on waiting a bit longer but I know what my portfolio will be. I have been tracking it for the last two months and it has done OK with the ups and downs. It is easy when there is nothing at stake .

 

[FjallJager]

Markets do what they do, but they always come back. 150,000 people might die from this disease in America, I have seen some calculations that exceed this number. The market will come back.

I am in my mid-40's, not worried about it. We have about a month worth of food, job says that we are all going to telework starting in a week or two.

I pray for those that don't have it so good.

I guess if I was a private business owner or working for someone that was going to shut down, I'd probably see this through different light.

 

[Mr.BR]

Hold on to anything you have ,but for god sake don't throw any more $$ down the drain , except in form of toilet paper after wiping your ass

Most of the stock will bounce back but it might take 5+ years or even a decade to get into the inflated territory where it was before the crash especialy if politics this time produces some legislative restrictions (on stock buybacks ,etc) to prevent all the same shit repeated.

 

[FjallJager]

You can not use emotion to make decisions if you invest. It doesn't work.

 

[culater]

well i took about a 35k haircut. i dont think this is anywhere near over, unfortunately. shits of it is that i KNEW about a month ago i should pull out-kinda like banging that hot stripper you manage to talk into your bed. things are going great and it feels good....so you get lazy and dont pull out. and THEN you pay. lol.

i’m sitting out for a while. i may miss out on some gains, but i may just make that 35k seem like chump change if i get back in before people calm the fuck down.

It's not the people you should worry about but the high frequency trading computer's that will crash this market in seconds

 

[E. Bryant]

You can not use emotion to make decisions if you invest. It doesn't work.

Emotion is not helpful, but "gut feel" often is. Investors need to understand the difference.

 

[myronman3]

It's not the people you should worry about but the high frequency trading computer's that will crash this market in seconds

Either way you slice it.

I can tell you one thing for sure...it isnt the computers causing the masses to lose their fucking heads and buy massive amounts of ass wipe. The computers are not closing the schools, shutting down sporting events, and so on. This WILL have an effect.

I’m not scared of the virus...for all i know, i may have had it already. I have no fucks to give about that. My daily life isnt going to change one iota.

I will say....the media is being super irresponsible on this.

 

[Gunfighter14e2]

Either way you slice it.

I can tell you one thing for sure...it isnt the computers causing the masses to lose their fucking heads and buy massive amounts of ass wipe. The computers are not closing the schools, shutting down sporting events, and so on. This WILL have an effect.

I’m not scared of the virus...for all i know, i may have had it already. I have no fucks to give about that. My daily life isnt going to change one iota.

I will say....the media is being super irresponsible on this.

+1
Plus I'd really like to know, what the other shoe is hiding an has to say.

 

[CMP70306]

Theoretically I have lost a significant amount of money in my investments compared to a month ago but from a realistic standpoint the market is still higher than the last time I put money in. So even with the market so low if I pulled everything out tomorrow I'd still have more money than I started with.

That is assuming it doesn't crater on opening.

 

[atepointer]

Markets do what they do, but they always come back. 150,000 people might die from this disease in America, I have seen some calculations that exceed this number. The market will come back.

I am in my mid-40's, not worried about it. We have about a month worth of food, job says that we are all going to telework starting in a week or two.

I pray for those that don't have it so good.

I guess if I was a private business owner or working for someone that was going to shut down, I'd probably see this through different light.

Are you watching insider buying/selling of your holdings? Not an industry average metric, but what are the officers of what you own doing. You have to look deeper b/c many C-suite execs get a large portion of their pay package from shares and are required to sell %'s at pre-negotiated dates. Companies with great balance sheets who have been hammered the insiders are devouring the fire sale prices. Sales are specified as automatic sell, option, direct etc. Takes time, but is incredibly revealing about if they practice what they preach. I will never blame anyone for cashing in their chips on a vesting schedule, but it's awfully telling of the folks who don't believe what they say.

 

[atepointer]

I have heard that Delta is going to remove dividends for now. I heard it from a pretty credible source but I haven't seen any word of it anywhere else.

If I were in your position and were invested, I would stay the course. I got out some time ago and have been evaluating when to go back in. I plan on waiting a bit longer but I know what my portfolio will be. I have been tracking it for the last two months and it has done OK with the ups and downs. It is easy when there is nothing at stake .

Oh div slashing is not an if just a when. That's where preferred shares will pay off downstream when it comes they are higher up the capital stack. At least that is the plan. Stay frosty it ain't over yet!

 

[Mr.BR]

Are you watching insider buying/selling of your holdings? Not an industry average metric, but what are the officers of what you own doing. You have to look deeper b/c many C-suite execs get a large portion of their pay package from shares and are required to sell %'s at pre-negotiated dates. Companies with great balance sheets who have been hammered the insiders are devouring the fire sale prices. Sales are specified as automatic sell, option, direct etc. Takes time, but is incredibly revealing about if they practice what they preach. I will never blame anyone for cashing in their chips on a vesting schedule, but it's awfully telling of the folks who don't believe what they say.

That is what stock buybacks are for , you holding stock have nice and warm feeling as stock is propred up and value of your portfolio goes up (you would be much better served with higher dividend) but the execs that are cashing out all the time are the ones realy benefiting . Stock buybacks used to be illegal for a a good reson as they are used to game the system for the insiders at the same time they are picking all the meat of the bones , and some companies have been hollowed out by stock buybacks even before the market crashed. Boeing will likely need huge injections or even nationalisation to survive.

 

[atepointer]

That is what stock buybacks are for , you holding stock have nice and warm feeling as stock is propred up and value of your portfolio goes up (you would be much better served with higher dividend) but the execs that are cashing out all the time are the ones realy benefiting . Stock buybacks used to be illegal for a a good reson as they are used to game the system for the insiders at the same time they are picking all the meat of the bones , and some companies have been hollowed out by stock buybacks even before the market crashed. Boeing will likely need huge injections or even nationalisation to survive.

I don't think you understand what share buybacks are if you are connecting officers buying stock on the open market with a corporate buyback program. Is that what you are attempting to demonstrate? Yes buybacks can and have been abused which was never the point of my post. It was to watch officers buying stock at the same prices we are when it's unjustly bludgeoned. The pure financial engineering entities are bleeding to death with insider selling......the healthy companies are showing the opposite.

When companies buy stock back they are decreasing the float. When an officer goes out on to the open market like I do to buy at market prices that is not decreasing the float and artificially manipulating.

 

[E. Bryant]

I'm not interested in any company that engages in buybacks. It's capitulation; they are effectively giving up and saying they have no better ideas for deploying capital.

And there is a pretty good history of companies regretting their decision to blow that cash. For example, I'm pretty certain that Boeing would have been better-served by spending at least a portion of its $45B buyback splurge on, Idunno, maybe doing a better job on designing and validating aircraft. GM spent $15B on buybacks for virtually no boost in share price; spending that instead on product might have yielded better returns.

I know there are dissenting opinions on this, and they are welcome to give their pitch.

 

[atepointer]

I'm not interested in any company that engages in buybacks. It's capitulation; they are effectively giving up and saying they have no better ideas for deploying capital.

And there is a pretty good history of companies regretting their decision to blow that cash. For example, I'm pretty certain that Boeing would have been better-served by spending at least a portion of its $45B buyback splurge on, Idunno, maybe doing a better job on designing and validating aircraft. GM spent $15B on buybacks for virtually no boost in share price; spending that instead on product might have yielded better returns.

I know there are dissenting opinions on this, and they are welcome to give their pitch.

I don't have any stake in companies participating in buybacks at present, but it wouldn't cause me to not look at a company who has used them wisely. To simply throw every buyback program into a binary decision as capitulation is a bit of an overreaction IMO. As long as the cost of debt and div yield are fairly close it can be a very wise use of money for both the company and the shareholder when companies get dragged down by bad news in a sector....doesn't mean every company is a dumpster fire. When there are huge gaps in rev and EPS performance then it's clear a company is gaming the system. Again this is where homework comes into play. Value investing is getting so crowded now the easy picking deals are harder to find and they are so thinly traded they can skyrocket or plummet in a flash. I'm not going to simply dump one of my holdings if they decide to do a small buyback especially if it happens now as several have been severely punished along with the poorly run companies they compete against simply b/c they inhabit the same space.

I agree it's mostly been abused, but the topic does not have to be an all or none proposition. Apple has 'capitulated' so well the last 10 years they beat the S&P500 with their buyback program.

Have a good Sunday fellers I'm goin 'chootin'

 

[lightman]

Never pull out, you turn a paper loss into a real loss. The market will come back. The smartest thing you could do is see if it drops and hop back in.

Buy and hold is my strategy, and pretty much always has been. I'm not saying that its always fun. 1987 was tough. So was 1999-2000 and 2008-2009. 2015 and 2018 both sucked too! But its always come back and come back strong. It ain't easy to sit by and watch you money disappear. I'm retired and my investments are 70% stock, heavier in stock than the experts recommend for a retired person. I tolerate this level of risk partly because I have a pension and SS. It still ain't fun!

I'm not an expert on this but I've studied it quite a bit, and I've been in it for a while. Many experts feel that at the end of the game the "buy and hold" crowd and the "buy and sell" crowd make out about the same. There are exceptions, of course.

 

[acudaowner]

 

[culater]

$700B QE and $500B Repos

Sounds like the feds were scarred of a bloody Monday. Was down $1,000 earlier today.

View attachment 7273801

Stick a fork in this market and the economy the Great depression part 2 has arrived

 

[SD Carpenter]

My retirement is in about 25-30 years... As far as I'm concerned for me this is just a giant flash sale lol

 

[myronman3]

Ya want to know the fucked up thing? I am hoping i made a mistake by getting out when i did. I am hoping, for the sake of the country/world, that i am wrong.

 

[culater]

My retirement is in about 25-30 years... As far as I'm concerned for me this is just a giant flash sale lol

Not when the US Dollar is worth NOTHING

 

[Threadcutter308]

Not when the US Dollar is worth NOTHING

OK, I’ll bite. Relative to what ? The Euro ? The CH Franc ? What ?
I just looked. By and large, the Euro and Franc X/R’s haven’t changed. The only thing that has changed is that takes more of each to buy the same amount of ass wipe, compared to a month ago.

 

[culater]

OK, I’ll bite. Relative to what ? The Euro ? The CH Franc ? What ?
I just looked. By and large, the Euro and Franc X/R’s haven’t changed. The only thing that has changed is that takes more of each to buy the same amount of ass wipe, compared to a month ago.

It's time to go back to real money in the US Constitution Gold and Silver.

 

[FjallJager]

Investing in stocks is a rough game, not a bad game, just rough. Everyone wants the $1 stock that will become Amazon. So they invest a lot in junk.

Un-managed funds are the smartest investment. A lot of investment brokers will try to steer you toward managed funds, if you do this you might make a run for a couple years, but eventually the increase in taxes and cost will kill your bottom line.

If you are wondering where I got the Un-managed funds are the smartest investment idea. First it has always worked for me, during my time at university I took a lot of financial management for investors courses. This was hammered home.

Secondly Warren Buffett lives this mantra, and he is a billionaire.

 

[lte82]

Yea well I hope you guys are shorting or buying puts... the market is about to free fall this week.

 

[FjallJager]

Maybe the fed just zero'ed out interest rates. We will see.

 

[lte82]

Maybe the fed just zero'ed out interest rates. We will see.

It’s the last ditch effort to stop the free fall they see coming. They injected 1.5 trillion into banks Thursday & Friday and couldn’t stop the bleeding. Monday will be a face melter...

 

[Gunfighter14e2]

Will tomorrow be Black Monday all over again?

 

[MtnCreek]

Going to sit down with my guy this week. I really have no idea how to steer that conversation. I wonder if he'll get it if I tell him to go heavy in golddots.

 

[MrSmith]

Will tomorrow be Black Monday all over again?

Likely. Along with other things the "ammo" the Feds use to prod the markets is the interest rate. During the Obummer years it was used often enough that the feds ran short of ammo. During the current administration they were slowly trying to raise the rate a bit at a time so as to put a little ammo back in the box. They just ran out of ammo.

I am not a financial guy, don't play one on TV nor did I stay at a Holiday Inn last night.

May you live in interesting times.

Thank you,
MrSmith

 

[lte82]

Will tomorrow be Black Monday all over again?

Already shaking out that way. We will hit the 7% limit 30 mins after open.

 

[SD Carpenter]

The market has never not recovered in the history of the stock market, unless your within 5 years of retirement: close your eyes.

 

[Gunfighter14e2]

I've went heavy on rechargeable battery's for all the fun an games that may be soon coming.

Sad thing is my Grandfather, Father an many other kin that went threw the depression said I would see hard times as well. Most people in this country today unlike back then do not live on farms, or even know how to feed their self's, w/o a store. The perfect storm may be knocking on our door shortly,...

 

[FjallJager]

Hopefully I draw a few tags. I am going to buy a deep freeze.