Tariffs and ammo prices?

TorF · Sunday at 5:56 AM

How will the new tariffs affect ammo prices?

The two largest exporters of lead to the US are Canada (25% tariff) and China (10% tariff).
I bet the market for brass is quite similar.

I shoot Sierra and Nosler bullets in Europe so if there will be imposed tariffs between the US and EU I bet I will have to pay double price for US made bullets..

sloporsche · Sunday at 6:07 AM

i think it will depend on what products and how long the money wars last ...i predict weeks or shorter

Threadcutter308 · Sunday at 6:36 AM

TorF said:
How will the new tariffs affect ammo prices?

The two largest exporters of lead to the US are Canada (25% tariff) and China (10% tariff).
I bet the market for brass is quite similar.

I shoot Sierra and Nosler bullets in Europe so if there will be imposed tariffs between the US and EU I bet I will have to pay double price for US made bullets..

Just be patient, the tariffs won't last long. At least not with Canada.

frank320 · Sunday at 6:44 AM

Unless this a trick question or one is trying to bluff oneself into some alternate reality, tariffs will only send prices up and inflation higher. Threat of tariffs are great as a negotiating tool, but if one’s bluff is called and tariffs go into effect, consumers suffer and the additional levies go from our pockets into government coffers at the expense of our economy and inflation…

Steel+Killer · Sunday at 6:47 AM

TorF said:
How will the new tariffs affect ammo prices?

The two largest exporters of lead to the US are Canada (25% tariff) and China (10% tariff).
I bet the market for brass is quite similar.

I shoot Sierra and Nosler bullets in Europe so if there will be imposed tariffs between the US and EU I bet I will have to pay double price for US made bullets..

Lets see stuff from Canada will go up 25% and stuff from China will go up 10%......

Old Man with Gun · Sunday at 6:50 AM

Threadcutter308 said:
Just be patient, the tariffs won't last long. At least not with Canada.

I'm amazed that every time Trump does something that all the experts say is bad, people are sure he has some master plan that will work out his way. This trade war will cause real damage and I'm not talking ammo prices. Talking gas prices, layoffs and maybe trigger a recession. Problem with being a bully is eventually you unite everyone against you.

Stock market crash in 4, 3, 2, 1....

NoDopes · Sunday at 6:53 AM

How much do raw materials make up a large % of final product cost. Don't we import most of the nitrocellulose too?

Skeptic1 · Sunday at 6:55 AM

The higher the tarrif the more incentive to produce here in the US. To become completely independent of other countries.
It may take a few months, they'll be some initial growing pains but it is good for America.
I agree that the tariffs won't last long though.

NoDopes · Sunday at 6:55 AM

Old Man with Gun said:
and maybe trigger a recession.

We are in a recession. Government deficit spending 10% of GDP over last several years has been delaying it on paper.

Skeptic1 · Sunday at 7:00 AM

Old Man with Gun said:
I'm amazed that every time Trump does something that all the experts say is bad, people are sure he has some master plan that will work out his way. This trade war will cause real damage and I'm not talking ammo prices. Talking gas prices, layoffs and maybe trigger a recession. Problem with being a bully is eventually you unite everyone against you.

Stock market crash in 4, 3, 2, 1....

What's actually really amazing is that every time Trump has a plan of any kind "all the experts

" , the media and YOU all lose your minds about what a catastrophe it will be.......
and then it turns out exactly how Donald predicted and we are all better off for it. Even you. Even though you hate him.

sirhrmechanic · Sunday at 7:18 AM

Make the American Lead industry great again…

Fuck importing strategic metals when they are under our own damn feet!!

Sirhr

Old Man with Gun · Sunday at 7:40 AM

Skeptic1 said:
What's actually really amazing is that every time Trump has a plan of any kind "all the experts " , the media and YOU all lose your minds about what a catastrophe it will be.......
and then it turns out exactly how Donald predicted and we are all better off for it. Even you. Even though you hate him.

Time will tell. Trump did some good and some bad. Threats of terriffs are one thing, he is taking a gamble and he may win, or not.

Problem with success is it convinces some intelligent people that they know everything and can't fail. Trump is FA, let's hope he doesn't FO.

HarryBC · Sunday at 7:42 AM

The tariffs will definately stimulate domestic US production of anything, crude oil, refined oil, steel. ammunition components, etc......but that takes time. Trump's strategy has several issues wrapped within the tariff initiation.....to include the fentanyl/illegals, balance of trade, stimulate domestic production( must also ease domestic permitting because of "ecological" constraints). Time to move domestic production of ammunition components, drug precursor ingredients, etc, etc......cant fight a war relying on your enemy for ammunition or medical supplies. Trump keeps utilizing the McKinley model of no income tax, tariffs paying for Govt. Yes, some pain getting there, but Trump's strategy is clear, a self sufficient USA, minimize income tax, major crime reduction as "domestic tranquility" is restored by eliminating illegals.....tariffs are a necessary first step. By the way, there are already some tariffs on China, should have been stated as an additional 10%...

Old Man with Gun · Sunday at 7:43 AM

sirhrmechanic said:
Make the American Lead industry great again…

Fuck importing strategic metals when they are under our own damn feet!!

Sirhr

Making bullets requires Antimony, a metal we mostly get from China.

Skeptic1 · Sunday at 7:56 AM

Old Man with Gun said:
Time will tell. Trump did some good and some bad. Threats of terriffs are one thing, he is taking a gamble and he may win, or not.

Problem with success is it convinces some intelligent people that they know everything and can't fail. Trump is FA, let's hope he doesn't FO.

Ha! "Problem with success"
Definitely sounds like something you and those like you would say.
Why do liberals hate it when America wins?

DarnYankeeUSMC · Sunday at 8:04 AM

The switch from a manufacturing economy to a consumer economy has royaly fucked this country. The road back is going to be filled with a lot of bumps and the so called experts and MSM are going to scream like that bump is the end of the world.
The last recession was the best deporter of illegals the country has ever seen. Deport the illegals that are driving down wages, bring back manufacturing from China, Mexico and Canada then shut off the welfare is the path to MAGA. Looks like the staff Trump has brought in will handcuff the alphabet and their strangling regulations.
Explaining it to people that will take a million dollars vs a penny doubled every day is the hard part.

DarnYankeeUSMC · Sunday at 8:06 AM

Old Man with Gun said:
Making bullets requires Antimony, a metal we mostly get from China.

And we have things that they need. "Fair trade" ever heard of it?

Fig · Sunday at 8:07 AM

frank320 said:
Unless this a trick question or one is trying to bluff oneself into some alternate reality, tariffs will only send prices up and inflation higher. Threat of tariffs are great as a negotiating tool, but if one’s bluff is called and tariffs go into effect, consumers suffer and the additional levies go from our pockets into government coffers at the expense of our economy and inflation…

Why are all the people making this argument suddenly silent when it comes to the government taking the fruits of our labor by force? Because taxes make us poorer so prices can't go up, because our spending power is cut in half out of the gate?

375fan · Sunday at 8:15 AM

DarnYankeeUSMC said:
The last recession was the best deporter of illegals the country has ever seen. Deport the illegals that are driving down wages, bring back manufacturing from China, Mexico and Canada then shut off the welfare is the path to MAGA. Looks like the staff Trump has brought in will handcuff the alphabet and their strangling regulations.

The out of control, has too much power EPA is a huge part of the problem. Lead and shot production in this country is basically non existent due to them. Getting new powder production facilities built in this country is virtually impossible due to all the regulations.
EPA needs brought to heel with some common sense for starters.

WasNH4X · Sunday at 8:33 AM

375fan said:
The out of control, has too much power EPA is a huge part of the problem. Lead and shot production in this country is basically non existent due to them. Getting new powder production facilities built in this country is virtually impossible due to all the regulations.
EPA needs brought to heel with some common sense for starters.

Was wondering when someone would mention the " elephant in the room " . Well done sir

There are other alphabet agencies that have contributed to the problems of our country also, that need to be pee pee stomped hard also.

WasNH4X · Sunday at 8:45 AM

DarnYankeeUSMC said:
Explaining it to people that will take a million dollars vs a penny doubled every day is the hard part.

LOL......so you've done the math also,as I while bored one day. I' d take the penny doubled, when them pennies get to dollars .....30 days worth of " compounded " adds up quickly.

DarnYankeeUSMC · Sunday at 8:48 AM

WasNH4X said:
LOL......so you've done the math also,as I while bored one day. I' d take the penny doubled, when them pennies get to dollars .....30 days worth of " compounded " adds up quickly.

Delayed satisfaction went out the window with the microwave society.

BurtG · Sunday at 8:49 AM

Skeptic1 said:
The higher the tarrif the more incentive to produce here in the US. To become completely independent of other countries.

But. Gov once again is the problem. Why you think steel / casting / etc is all over seas
Epa osha taxes unions.

BurtG · Sunday at 8:50 AM

And hopefully ending The Ukraine money laundering g scheme will help with ammo price and availability

alamo5000 · Sunday at 8:56 AM

TorF said:
How will the new tariffs affect ammo prices?

The two largest exporters of lead to the US are Canada (25% tariff) and China (10% tariff).
I bet the market for brass is quite similar.

I shoot Sierra and Nosler bullets in Europe so if there will be imposed tariffs between the US and EU I bet I will have to pay double price for US made bullets..

Something like 90++ percent of all lead in US made ammo comes from US recycling.

In case you are unaware, shipping stuff around the world is expensive so generally speaking the notion of shipping lead bars in bulk ain't happening, at least not across the water.

Numerous industries use lead in their products, however the idea that 'lead is lead' is not at all an accurate representation of what is going on.

If you are making some type of electronic product that requires a 99.9% pure refined lead, that stuff is selling at a premium. The product there is just as much for the lead as it is the process to purify that lead.

My guns however can shoot 90-92% pure lead with no problem.

AllenOne1 · Sunday at 9:05 AM

This needs to be looked at from a different angle IMO. If the Trump plan can reduce or eliminate the budget deficit the dollar will surge in comparison to these other countries currencies. This exchange rate deferential will offset the price increases produced by the added tariff. At the same time the economy in this country will surge and a lot of new overseas money will be coming in.

DOGE is already working to cut expenses, illegals are being deported daily, DEI is being uprooted, regulations on businesses will be reduced so that they can operate more efficiently.

Oh, and if anyone hasn't noticed a lot of jobs are being eliminated right now and it has nothing to do with Trump or any new tariffs. The last 4 years have been a disaster that just continued to cause a decline in business every year.

alamo5000 · Sunday at 9:05 AM

Furthermore, in general the cost ammo is way WAY more than the price of the components.

Allowing market control to one company or even one country of things like gun cotton or components to make primers doesn't help our cause at all.

The problem here is that of production. If there legit was a spike in demand, production is not keeping up. I've long held that these entities that control most of the ammo supply are in cahoots with each other to artificially inflate prices the exact same way that other entities control things like beef in supermarkets around the US.

WasNH4X · Sunday at 9:06 AM

DarnYankeeUSMC said:
Delayed satisfaction went out the window with the microwave society.

One could make an argument that is was when Jiffy Pop popcorn and store bought orange juice came to be......if one wanted to go down that road. But I'm not interested in having a debate about such things this beautiful Sunday morning .

BurtG · Sunday at 9:14 AM

alamo5000 said:
I've long held that these entities that control most of the ammo supply are in cahoots with each other to artificially inflate prices the exact same way that other entities control things like beef in supermarkets around the US.

100 percent.

We live in oligarchy

They do the same with seed chemicals and fertilizer. 2-3 companies control 99.9% of the supply. Then they get their business partners in government to put tariffs on off patent chemicals and foreign fertilizer

Big companies like regulations. They devote a whole department to it. Start ups can’t. They get bail outs front tax dollars during downturns. Small business doesn’t

Aftermath · Sunday at 9:17 AM

Old Man with Gun said:
Making bullets requires Antimony, a metal we mostly get from China.

While true at the face, there are HUGE deposits of antimony in the US. Antimony and lead are often mined as a byproduct of silver mining. Idaho and Alaska alone can supply the US with the current antimony levels, now throw in Utah, Nevada, Arizona, Oklahoma and Missouri as more sources for lead and antimony.
The primary difference is that Chynna has operations up and running while here in the US these operations have largely been shut down by the same government you voted for.

alamo5000 · Sunday at 9:23 AM

It's also worth noting that the OP is from Norway and is consuming US exports in the way of ammo or components.

Nothing wrong with Norway at all, but that puts an entirely different angle on the economic impacts he may or may not feel.

I would venture to say that base bulk commodity prices of metals in ammo production in the US make up single digits of the consumer level price of ammo and components in the European market. If not single digits, low double digits would be accurate.

BuildingConceptsllc · Sunday at 9:31 AM

AllenOne1 said:
This needs to be looked at from a different angle IMO. If the Trump plan can reduce or eliminate the budget deficit the dollar will surge in comparison to these other countries currencies. This exchange rate deferential will offset the price increases produced by the added tariff. At the same time the economy in this country will surge and a lot of new overseas money will be coming in.

DOGE is already working to cut expenses, illegals are being deported daily, DEI is being uprooted, regulations on businesses will be reduced so that they can operate more efficiently.

Oh, and if anyone hasn't noticed a lot of jobs are being eliminated right now and it has nothing to do with Trump or any new tariffs. The last 4 years have been a disaster that just continued to cause a decline in business every year.

This is definitely a factor. Also, we have so much more "room " to temporarily and artificially offset negative effects of tarrifs because we buy so much more than we sell these places. Trump is trying to make fundamental changes. Because of the size differences between what we buy and what we sell, we have a massive advantage in this fight to get the USA on better footing.

1- Government- not waisting and printing trillions

2- Trade: balanced trade so we can sell much much more American goods, and sell those goods to other countries.

3- Usa economic production wholesale changes. We need to change how our economy works and make more stuff. (See #2), to make our economy work better and provide better jobs to our people, and also to make our economy stronger and more robust.

4- Safety, this of course means deadly drugs must stop flooding our nation. It also means we need to produce more here so we aren't at the mercy of countries who hate us. It's also a matter of safety as it relates to our economy being able to survive global issues.

Trump understands all of this extremely well. He will get this done and isn't being subverted by literally every other govt person this time since he finally has gone in and gotten rid of huge amounts of turds and traitors. We can't just go on like we were anyway so it's not like there's an option here. It's either do it now while we actually have the ability to so it without massive harm, or do it later when we can't defend ourselves near as well because we are too far gone. (Like Canada is now) Some of you guys clearly do not understand this stuff and should just smile and be quiet and enjoy what is to come next year.

hankpac · Sunday at 9:39 AM

375fan said:
The out of control, has too much power EPA is a huge part of the problem. Lead and shot production in this country is basically non existent due to them. Getting new powder production facilities built in this country is virtually impossible due to all the regulations.
EPA needs brought to heel with some common sense for starters.

This is true. The last smelter of lead in the USA closed in 2023, yet, doing a google search using various query formats, reveals only that there is still lead mining going on, in the USA, but not where, and no mention of where the ore is shipped for smelting.

Perhaps my Google-Fu is poor, but I only searched for about a half hour. I can find production rates, and one chart even shows several countries EXCEPT the US producing Lead, but no data on where it ships for reduction.
We do have a robust recycling program, and lead/acid batteries are being recovered for scavenging of lead, however several reports state that only 3% is needed for bullet production, making ammo a very low order of importance (to economists and “greenies (hippies and conservationists and climate change idiots all lumped together ).
if anyone has information on where lead ore is shipped for smelting (probably Mexico and Canada), Let me know. Putting it out of reach of re-loaders and industry puts us in a disadvantage, certainly an inconvenience, including strategically.

rdinak · Sunday at 9:46 AM

Should I buy a couple more AP5’s before tariffs raise?

Old Man with Gun · Sunday at 9:58 AM

Aftermath said:
While true at the face, there are HUGE deposits of antimony in the US. Antimony and lead are often mined as a byproduct of silver mining. Idaho and Alaska alone can supply the US with the current antimony levels, now throw in Utah, Nevada, Arizona, Oklahoma and Missouri as more sources for lead and antimony.
The primary difference is that Chynna has operations up and running while here in the US these operations have largely been shut down by the same government you voted for.

I hope it is a non issue. Maybe there is some great long term win here, I'm mostly afraid the next few years could be in recession. I don't see the bull stock market lasting if this trade war escalates.

mtrmn · Sunday at 10:01 AM

I'm betting there's plenty of that stuff here, lead especially, but the weaponized EPA etc stopped us from using our own resources. Get rid of all the letter agencies with their unelected bureaucrats and let us go back into domestic production.

Mike Casselton · Sunday at 10:24 AM

WasNH4X said:
LOL......so you've done the math also,as I while bored one day. I' d take the penny doubled, when them pennies get to dollars .....30 days worth of " compounded " adds up quickly.

I hope you know this is like a 3rd grade question.
I did the math without a calculator a long, long time ago.
It was a scenario based question using a farmer and an out of work banker.
As the banker did, I'll take the doubled penny.

NoDopes · Sunday at 10:28 AM

Need to outlaw government officials from ever working for the companies they regulate. Fucking scam revolving door of corruption.

375fan · Sunday at 10:30 AM

NoDopes said:
Need to outlaw government officials from ever working for the companies they regulate. Fucking scam revolving door of corruption.

That'll happen about as fast as stopping them from being allowed to do insider trading.

LuckyLuke80 · Sunday at 10:51 AM

GREAT THREAD! I guess some of the guys in here have forgotten 2016-2020 already. Even while the alphabet soup swamp was fighting Trump he imposed tariffs AND still put more money in our pockets. Just because China, Canada, and Mexico (and others) pay higher tariffs to get goods here doesn’t mean we won’t start making said goods ourselves. As DarnYankeeUSMC said it also includes fair trade. We are not a nation with nothing to offer the world. I think the critics here are looking at tariffs all wrong.

Ffastfreddy · Sunday at 10:56 AM

WasNH4X said:
LOL......so you've done the math also,as I while bored one day. I' d take the penny doubled, when them pennies get to dollars .....30 days worth of " compounded " adds up quickly.

FWIW, a penny doubled every day for thirty days becomes $10,737,418.24. If you have a 31 day month then you're talking some "real" money!
You can't double money every day but you do have more than a penny and longer than a month. Compounding is powerful. It can grow an acorn into an oak tree.

John T. · Sunday at 11:36 AM

Threadcutter308 said:
Just be patient, the tariffs won't last long. At least not with Canada.

Except that our PM Justin Trudeau thinks he is going to 'pull a tuffy' and stand up to Trump. Like a Chihauha against a Pit bull! Instead of cleaning up our act and paying our fare share on the global stage.....we're going to play the victim and make it look like it is someone else's fault
Election here this spring....hopefully someone who can hold respect. Until then, JT will escalate things out of control. IMHO
Don't bother sending up the tanks right now.....its -35 out.

Threadcutter308 · Sunday at 11:56 AM

John T. said:
Except that our PM Justin Trudeau thinks he is going to 'pull a tuffy' and stand up to Trump. Like a Chihauha against a Pit bull! Instead of cleaning up our act and paying our fare share on the global stage.....we're going to play the victim and make it look like it is someone else's fault
Election here this spring....hopefully someone who can hold respect. Until then, JT will escalate things out of control. IMHO
Don't bother sending up the tanks right now.....its -35 out.

trudeau is gone March 15th or 30th, correct ? Yep, this is his last (globalist) kick at the cat trying to poke his finger in Trump's eye. Man, you guys are so fortunate he's leaving. So are we for that matter.

I'd bet money that this won't last more than a couple of months, 6 tops. We're too good of friends for it to go on for very long. I doubt that Trump wanted to do this, but I think trump looked at trudeau and trudeau's administration and felt like trudeau was going to just blow Trump off, so Trump went ahead and pulled the trigger.

I think this will backfire on trudeau and it will have been Trump that shoved his finger in trudeau's eye, not vis versa. That's kind of already happened with trudeau having gone to Mar a Lago (uninvited), meeting with Trump, then Trump's remark a couple of days later about trudeau being "the governor".......

I also have to believe that Trump and Pollievre have been talking. Here's to hoping that Pierre wins this spring. I think Pollievre is a good portion of the reason that trudeau is bailing out. So is the fact that trudeau is just a petulant little child with nothing going for him but a big mouth. And yes, we have more than our fair share of them down here South of the 48th, so you're not alone there.

SilentStalkr · Sunday at 12:35 PM

DarnYankeeUSMC said:
The switch from a manufacturing economy to a consumer economy has royaly fucked this country. The road back is going to be filled with a lot of bumps and the so called experts and MSM are going to scream like that bump is the end of the world.
The last recession was the best deporter of illegals the country has ever seen. Deport the illegals that are driving down wages, bring back manufacturing from China, Mexico and Canada then shut off the welfare is the path to MAGA. Looks like the staff Trump has brought in will handcuff the alphabet and their strangling regulations.
Explaining it to people that will take a million dollars vs a penny doubled every day is the hard part.

AllenOne1 said:
This needs to be looked at from a different angle IMO. If the Trump plan can reduce or eliminate the budget deficit the dollar will surge in comparison to these other countries currencies. This exchange rate deferential will offset the price increases produced by the added tariff. At the same time the economy in this country will surge and a lot of new overseas money will be coming in.

DOGE is already working to cut expenses, illegals are being deported daily, DEI is being uprooted, regulations on businesses will be reduced so that they can operate more efficiently.

Oh, and if anyone hasn't noticed a lot of jobs are being eliminated right now and it has nothing to do with Trump or any new tariffs. The last 4 years have been a disaster that just continued to cause a decline in business every year.

Yeah, here is the problem, a few short years from now, some other dumbass like Biden will get elected and fuck up any gains we have made. So we are at best back to where we were or we fall backwards, making gov completely ineffective. Two steps forward, two steps backward all with the perception that something is getting done, when reality is, ain’t shit happening. If it is then we are actually sliding backwards instead of moving forward. But they are still taking and spending a shit ton of our money while getting zero accomplished!

fedupflyer · Sunday at 1:58 PM

Old Man with Gun said:
I'm amazed that every time Trump does something that all the experts say is bad, people are sure he has some master plan that will work out his way. This trade war will cause real damage and I'm not talking ammo prices. Talking gas prices, layoffs and maybe trigger a recession. Problem with being a bully is eventually you unite everyone against you.

Stock market crash in 4, 3, 2, 1....

Same bullshit I heard back in 2016.

Old Man with Gun · Sunday at 2:19 PM

fedupflyer said:
Same bullshit I heard back in 2016.

Trade deficit under Trump 2016-2020 soared to highest point since Bush 2008. He increased the trade imbalance.

He said he would eliminate federal budget deficit and increased it by 77%. He is better at marketing than operations.

BurtG · Sunday at 2:38 PM

Old Man with Gun said:
Trade deficit under Trump 2016-2020 soared to highest point since Bush 2008. He increased the trade imbalance.

He said he would eliminate federal budget deficit and increased it by 77%. He is better at marketing than operations.

Yeah. You’re cohorts releasing a virus they created then purposely making it worse didn’t have anything to do with that either

Threadcutter308 · Sunday at 2:43 PM

BurtG said:
Yeah. You’re co horta releasing a virus they created then purposely making it worse didn’t have anything to do with that either

View attachment 8607232

Ummmm, make it 6. inslee in warshington state.

Old Man with Gun · Sunday at 2:52 PM

BurtG said:
Yeah. You’re cohorts releasing a virus they created then purposely making it worse didn’t have anything to do with that either

View attachment 8607232

Not my people, I'm Republican. Just saying it wasn't all roses and by your logic, if he can't control the outcome even when he was president, what guarantees his success this time?
All I'm saying is that he is taking a big gamble and we will pay the price if it fails. Maybe worth it, maybe not, only time will tell.

mosin46 · Sunday at 3:01 PM

alamo5000 said:
Furthermore, in general the cost ammo is way WAY more than the price of the components.

Allowing market control to one company or even one country of things like gun cotton or components to make primers doesn't help our cause at all.

The problem here is that of production. If there legit was a spike in demand, production is not keeping up. I've long held that these entities that control most of the ammo supply are in cahoots with each other to artificially inflate prices the exact same way that other entities control things like beef in supermarkets around the US.

you are paranoid. of course,you are absolutely correct.

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