OK, Here's one that I've been pondering for a couple of days.
The MSM (local and national) incessantly keeping harping on today's new cases and the total cases. Might I suggest a different metric that moves with their narrative.
Let's, for a moment, consider that the daily statistics at a local level are accurate for 1) new cases positive, and 2) number of deaths. I'm not as interested with the negative cases because they are not really involved except to get a understanding of how many people have been tested.
Now let's agree with the premise of the typical infection runs between 10 and 14 days. I've seen several different opinions, however this seems to be within the upper and lower limits I've seen.
Now let's create a spreadsheet where we enter the number of 'New' cases reported. It's important that we are looking at 'New' POSITIVE cases. Create a formula that looks back 10 to 14 days to create a running total. For a quick analysis tool, I would put that variable in a specific cell and use absolute referencing in the formula to get that number.
What we are building is a cumulative calculation in each column that adds the new Positive cases, but drops out all the cases that have expired based on the threshold we set in the absolute reference.
NOW we have an indication of a very basic infection load on a daily basis. It will be something different from what the news is drumming into our heads non-stop 24/7/365.
Once you have that, you can subtract out the number of deaths to get a sense of how many people were infected, and how many survived.
If you are a geek like me, you would start adding in other demographics such gender (real, not imaginary), age, race, number of comorbidities, etc. At this point you would probably (statistical humor) have to move to a different tool to see and correlation. (you could do it in excel, but why make life any harder)
Now that you have that daily infected number, do a time series to see if we are really getting worse, staying the same, or getting better.
Imagine if you could do this on a national/regional/municipality level.
My hypothesis is you would find a correlation to infection with 'Peaceful Protests' and 'Illegal Entry'. If I was a statistician, I would rephrase that hypothesis as a null hypothesis so I could run some tests.
Any comments would be appreciated (or ignored like my wifey does
)
