Basic,My buddy helped me work up a load ladder (only 3 rounds of each as we're short components right now) and the SD was 53.51 between the three.
Too few shots to be a meaningful SD unfortunately.
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Basic,My buddy helped me work up a load ladder (only 3 rounds of each as we're short components right now) and the SD was 53.51 between the three.
Not that you need a co-sign…20" BCA upper that shoots incredibly well.
Starline brass
CCI SRM
130grn Nosler RDF or 129grn Hornady SST
26.5 grn of H4895
Set to maximum magazine length
Very accurate but "slow" ~2375fps
Same upper
Starline brass
CCI SRM
130grn Nosler RDF or 129grn Hornady SST
26.9 grn AR Comp
Set to maximum magazine length
Very accurate ~2450fps
I haven't measured yet but I'm pretty sure I have a "long" jump to lands
Basic,
Too few shots to be a meaningful SD unfortunately.
This is not true and the last paragraph is rubbish. When things go bad this is no reason to quit.Except that when you get big numbers with just 3 shots, it is meaningful - it tells you right away something isn't working as desired, and you don't need to waste any more rounds to get a "statistically meaningful" number.
Same if we're talking about group sizes - 3 shot groups are relevant when they are spread out a lot and tell you it's a bad group; more rounds won't make it smaller.
People like to chime in about statistical relevance on most gun forums these days, but it seems common to forget that while you can't prove a great group or low SD etc with just a few shots, if things are going bad instead of great there's usually no reason to continue.
SD's are tightened with careful loading of ammunition, not by firing more shots. SD's are a single number/metric used to describe the distribution of a sample. The more shots, the more accurate the SD will be, and the more confident you can be the SD describes accurately the statistical distribution.Sooooooo, you can tighten a SD with more shots. Let’s say you have 2 velocity measurements that are close together, and one wildly outside of that. If that one outlier is truly an outlier, continued measurements can shrink the standard deviation- if they are all close to the other 2 measurements. But, you’ll never shrink a large ES with more shots.
My point is that 3 shots is not statistically significant to make a claim about the standard deviation of a population. Lets hypothesize that we have 10 rounds in a box. We shoot each and calculate the standard deviation and extreme spread for the growing group of measurements after each shot. It is entirely possible that we could come up with a series of measurement that look like the following...SD's are tightened with careful loading of ammunition, not by firing more shots. SD's are a single number/metric used to describe the distribution of a sample. The more shots, the more accurate the SD will be, and the more confident you can be the SD describes accurately the statistical distribution.
As for your second claim, this is true. however with more shots it might end up even greater.
hlee,My point is that 3 shots is not statistically significant to make a claim about the standard deviation of a population. Lets hypothesize that we have 10 rounds in a box. We shoot each and calculate the standard deviation and extreme spread for the growing group of measurements after each shot. It is entirely possible that we could come up with a series of measurement that look like the following...
We have one wild outlier on the 3rd shot, and the rest of the shots fall much more in line with the first two. The standard deviation after all 10 have been fired is much more representative of the population than after 3. And, it may be showing us that shot 3 is a true outlier. Maybe the charge was heavy. Maybe the chrono hiccuped.
Yes, careful loading tightens the SD, but the measured SD is only reliable if it is valid. The SD after 3 shots is not.
This is not true and the last paragraph is rubbish. When things go bad this is no reason to quit.
Shooting involves statistics and we need decent sample sizes to reveal meaningful metrics. One group of three shots tells you where the gun is zeroed, but that's about it.
Here's an example of how your SD can shrink by firing more rounds. It highlights the random nature of shots in a string. If we delete all but the first three rounds and look at the SD it is now larger at, '20'. My point is, firing three rounds does not tell us the real picture, and certainly no reason to quit.It's absolutely true, but maybe you'll need to stop and think about what I said. His 53 fps SD isn't going to turn into single digit SD by shooting 10 or 30 or even 50 rounds. Same if you're shooting a 4" group with those first 3 shots, there's no reason to keep going hoping it'll turn into a 1/2" group. These are examples when just a few shots tells you all you need to know to move on to something else; it doesn't matter whether the SD or whatever is statistically significant at that point.
Some people nerd out on the numbers way too much without stopping to consider how/when they're meaningful. Typical internet armchair quarterbacking.![]()
Here's an example of how your SD can shrink by firing more rounds. It highlights the random nature of shots in a string. If we delete all but the first three rounds and look at the SD it is now larger at, '20'. My point is, firing three rounds does not tell us the real picture, and certainly no reason to quit.
View attachment 8160698
Yondering,Again:
You’re not looking at what I said, or the specific context of this thread. The guy had an SD of 53, not 20. Nobody except you was talking about your made-up scenario; we all know the numbers can change like that but you’re arguing against something nobody said. This is exactly what I meant about people nerding out on the numbers. Don’t be so stuck in your own head that you can’t see what other people are saying, i.e. a nerd.
When groups or spreads are bad enough, any rationally thinking person can see there’s no need to waste additional rounds on it. That doesn’t mean a marginal SD of 20. It means “BAD”, like I said a bunch of times. An ES of 150 is another good example.
Yondering,
Ironically, while you deride shooters who rely on statistics too much as being 'nerdy', at the same time you advise Basic to stop because of a statistic. You believe his SD of 53 to be valid and meaningful. My argument is that both of you should ignore it because it is meaningless. Again, ironically, I am the one advising not to rely on statistics in this context.
BTW, my example above was not manufactured for this thread. Every muzzle velocity is real and in the order they were shot. And it was the first column I saw when opening my records. The idea an SD drops the more shots are fired can also validated by doing the same to your own records. Use the first string you see and do a SD calculation for the first three rounds, and then all the rounds.
Here's the same string above with the first shot altered to increase the SD of first three shots to be the same as Basic's 53. You are saying that 53 is so extreme as to be meaningful in some way. But when we keep shooting the SD drops to 29. In this case, one unusual shot can blow out the SD when there are only two other shots, but more shots reveals the truer picture.
View attachment 8161316
Yondering,those numbers are high enough that it's not worth expecting miracles from that load.
Good question. Let me round up that info.A thought provoking discussion about internal and external ballistics, no doubt, and worthy of its own thread. However, seems like Basic could give us a bit more info about the actual load details of the loads generating these widely disparate numbers, if we’re to be of any value to his original query.
-Brass mfg and were cases weighed? Have seen some wide case weight variance in Hornady brass, as much as 8-10gr difference depending on lots. Lapua brass very consistent weights, but new brass requires fire forming as it’s at least .010 short of chambers in 8 different Grendel barrels I have owned-7 still currently in play.
-Cases annealed, neck tension and shoulder setback for gun used in testing?
-Bullet used, distance from lands and same for all loads?
-Primer mfg, and same for all loads?
-Powder mfg, charge weights and measuring devices used?
-Chrono mfg used to gather data?
-Ambient weather conditions same for all testing?
Lots more variables possible that could generate ES/SD in ranges discussed, but more info definitely reqd to help Basic User.
And now, back to regularly scheduled programming….
Good question. Let me round up that info.
So 2569's kind fast for that bullet? I didn't know lol. I'll watch out for that. There were no pressure signs on the brass thus far. We also shot some cfe under some 120's and these berger 130's but there were fliers. We're definitely going to retry the 30.9 of cfe w/ 120gr lapua scenars, 27.3gr of varget under the 130 bergers and 28.9 gr of varget under the 130 grainers again. They showed that they wanted to group good. I had a solid shooting platform (1.5lbs trigger tech with a super tight harris and solid benchrest type rear bag) but the 15 power max vortex pst gen 2 kinda limited my precision as my eyes arent what they used to be. I will find out what those primers were.Good info, and what appears to be good process. Couple of things that come to mind-That’s a pretty stout load of Varget-2 gr over a max per Nosler data for 130gr bullets, but we all know most factory can be somewhat conservative, and if cases or primer pockets are showing pressure, may be an indication of an unbalanced charge weight, but Varget is generally considered slow for a 6.5 Grendel. 4895 and the double based CFE/Lever are often recommended for heavy bullets in Grendel, with temp sensitivity a variable. WW41’s or other WW primers?
Three barrels I’ve measured 130AR Hybrids for are in the 2.38-2.4 OAL to lands, so don’t think you’re challenging the lands.
Any chance a baffle strike could have impacted data? Odd chance with pretty good groups.
The collected wisdom here will likely offer their council, as well. Keep at it-Grendel has been very forgiving to load for in my experience.
Understood. We will reexamine that load then. Thanks for that intel. I chose 130's as an option for bullet choices (not to mention you buy what you can buy, and learn to make it work in this biden world) because that's what the federal GMM load was; 130 bergers. I've always had excellent results with GMM so I trust them blindly. I know in the world of reloading you shouldn't do that but, it was all I knew at the time I purchased them (about 6 mos ago) I'm about to dive into this 'gordons reloading tool' thing to get a deeper understanding of reloading. As for now all I have is a hornady book and it's SUUPER basic. About all it says is 'gunpowder is explosive' so I quit reading it; the questions about reloading I have are far too complex for that book.Basic,
I agree with bobke, that is a hot load, definitely over SAAMI's 52K lbs recommended limit. The trouble with Grendel is that by the time you see pressure signs in cases it will already be too hot for an AR. The first thing that shooters report on the Grendel forum is one of the bolt lugs breaks off. It may take a few hammer blows for this to happen but AR's are the canary in the coal mine for over-pressure. This, given they are relatively fragile compared to bolt guns.
A 130 Berger (either Hybrid or VLD) at that OAL, and 29.2gn of Varget is about 113% full (Ref: Quickload). That's some serious crunching of stick powder as the bullet is seated. Compressed loads steepen the fill/pressure curve so a difference of even 0.1 of a grain will have big changes in pressure/velocity.
I agree with bobke on choice of powder for heavy bullets in Grendel. The slightly faster H4895 would be a better choice for that 130Berger. That said, 130 is a heavy bullet for efficiency in a small case. Again, from the Grendel forum, the consensus is about 123gn gets the longest ranges at safe pressures. I save my 130Hybrids for the larger 6.5x47.
Random question, wasnt the 130 AR hybrid designed with the AR platform in mind? I picked the 130AR (2458fps using CFE223) as it performs better than the 123ELDM in regards to wind deflection.(2590fps with XBR8208 when i had it) at the speeds I able to obtain.Basic,
There are some interesting points in your comment.
When finding a reasonable load I use as many sources as possible. Manufacturer tables (conservative), 6.5 Grendel forum (on average hot loads), and Quickload (conservative). Adding to that you can look at spent cases for an idea of pressure but it's like reading tea leaves. By the time primers are cratering and flattening it's too late. Ejector swipes are common and can occur with mild loads. The first thing to break is the weakest link in the pressure containment system, the bolt lug. Grendel is a wider diameter bolt face than 5.56 so there is more pressure on the lugs. No doubt part reason why the SAAMI recommended max pressure is only 52K. The issue I think from being on the 6.5 Forum is Grendelers are always pushing the limits of what is by design a slow calibre and reports of bolts breaking are common enough to be comfortable that's what breaks first.
That said, if you want to consider the bolt as a consumable part (and always carry a spare like I do in the butt) then you can push hot loads through it until the bolt prematurely breaks - then replace it and carry on. It is highly unlikely to blow up in your face and you may not even know a lug has broken off until you get home. We replace barrels when they wear out, so we can also replace bolts every now and then. Just a thought, but requires acceptance of the risks that go with loading hot.
From the opposite perspective you can ask whether that extra velocity is critical to achieving your shooting goals. If shooting paper or steel at known distances; so what if the bullet arrives at the target 100fps less. A slower bullet will be affected slightly more by the wind, but that's about it. If hunting, the animal is not going to know the bullet is 100fps less than it could be - Dead is dead. So from this perspective, why wear out the gun faster if you don't need to?
I note on Hogdgon's website they don't list anything heavier than 123gn. Like I said, 130gn is less efficient for a small calibre like Grendel. This is because heavier bullets are longer, and in an AR the magazine length limits the OAL. When loading rounds to fit in an AR mag the longer bullets are pushed further into the case. This displaces precious space and there is less left over for powder. Heavier bullets also require slower powder and that has a compounding effect on the smaller volume available for bulkier powder.
Here's your 29.2gn 4895 load predicted in Quickload out of a 16" barrel...2435fps. Computer predictions never match reality exactly for all sorts of reasons, but they are close.
View attachment 8162164
The only issue I have had with this load has been the CFE223 powders temp instabilities, I live in Eastern NC so I seen some fun temp swings . I have been looking a replacement but sadly no luck.Works in a Grendel-know another shooter who shoots them very successfully at 1K, though its real sweet spot is in the 6.5CM.
Yes, my understanding too, but for the AR10, not AR15.Random question, wasnt the 130 AR hybrid designed with the AR platform in mind? I picked the 130AR (2458fps using CFE223) as it performs better than the 123ELDM in regards to wind deflection.(2590fps with XBR8208 when i had it) at the speeds I able to obtain.
That is a very good point and that maybe the solution for my PRS needs.Warnera-you’re not hijacking a thread, we’re all here to learn and shoot smarter. Once you’re at the perimeter of bullets weights outside of the original cartridge designers intent, some compromises are sure to surface. Think the Grendel’s sweet spot is in the 107/108-120/123 range. Want more velocity from 129/130 class bullets, you work with double base powders like CFE223/Lever, and accept that you might have two loads to accommodate their temp sensitivity, or go single base like 4895 that might not yield the velocity, but may offer year round stability/consistency for your particular circumstances. And those are not the only options, but do perform well in their pocket.
I’m in the Tx Hill Country, and temps in the next week will hit 105-107 with plenty of humidity. Or the winter can be easily in the teens/20’s. I’ve settled with 120 Scenars and AR Comp for 90% of my needs for its temp stability and lower burn temp, as well as accuracy and velocity. For hunting, likely 129 ABLR’s or 115gr Barnes, and specific loads for either. Good to have options, and a cartridge platform that can deliver to your needs.
I'm glad you mentioned BLC2, I have been looking at that as wellToo fast for 130’s. Best with lighter weight bullets in Grendel. See attached burn rate reference. You might look at 2520, VV powders, 748, Power Pro Varmint, even old school BLC2. Best to be on the slower side of 335 for sure. You should also check out the 65Grendel site ‘preferred loads’ section for another reference point.
6.5 Grendel Preferred Loads - 6.5 Grendel Forum : : For the 6.5 Grendel Aficionado
I think the 6.5 Grendel is a fantastic cartridge, mild but yet effective over a wide range of conditions, and of course the fact it fits into the AR platform is just icing on the cake. One of the things that seems to elude us, is a bullet and a powder that just works in everyones gun. Since I...www.65grendel.com
BFT's Lengthy List of Loads - 6.5 Grendel Forum : : For the 6.5 Grendel Aficionado
Whenever I run across a 6.5 Grendel load — here or on other forums — that seems reasonable and from a responsible reloader who carefully inspects brass and primers for over-pressure signs, I copy it down. Thought I'd share. Bear in mind that almost all of these loads — unless you see a work-up...www.65grendel.com
Yondering,
Excellent photos and write-up.
Do you find some brands of receiver are noticeably square than others, or the opposite, some brands are always out?
I haven't noticed enough of a trend to matter. IMO though, when it comes to even lug contact, it's one of those things where if you miss by an inch, you've missed by a mile; it's either square and true or it's not. Keep in mind an unevenness of only .001" at the receiver face can result in in a gap under the opposite bolt lug of about 3/4 that much, if the receiver/barrel fit has enough tolerance which most do.
What I have seen is that pretty much every receiver I've used that's not a thermo-fit can benefit from truing; they're all off by at least a little bit, it's rare to find one off by more than .004-.005" (which I'd consider a lot, in perspective). That doesn't mean that the completed assembly will shoot more accurately, which is a common "refute" some people try, and in a 5.56 you can get really long bolt life without truing, but in most larger cases like the Grendel, or even the 5.56 if you're pushing higher pressure, this can/does improve bolt life IF the rifle is also tuned well and not badly overgassed.
Excellent info from all of your recent posts; thank you! Although I am aware of everything you said, putting it all to pictures helps cement it in, and re-affirms that I'm not as crazy as my friends try to make me out to be by being anal on my "precision if you will" AR builds. (which this one was) Your bolt lug contact points really give me something to start paying closer attention to. Although this is a JP bolt, I am definitely going to be checking all of this now.
Not to get off the subject too much, but I did lap this upper and glue (sleeve retainer) this barrel in but my question on lapping remains, which is this - if I use a standard issue lapper that you see out there in the wild (mines wheeler), and I insert it in and begin lapping, if the upper's bore was bored unevenly to begin with, or the threads were cut cock-eyed where the barrel nut threads on to, aren't I just taking down material on the same uneven plane and not squaring anything up? To TRULY square a receiver, shouldn't it be chucked up in some sort of device that is truly centered, and it be brought up against a cutting bit much like truing up a bolt gun's receiver face? Or am I way off.
I will add that the receiver face needs to be square with itself. Specifically two things: the face needs to be square with the top rail, and the internal BCG race.
Squaring the face with the top rail - this is for cranking the scope/elevation. When cranking the scope's elevation no horizontal bias is introduced, and when cranking windage no vertical bias is introduced. For squaring the face with the race - when the bolt enters and goes into battery those lugs (as Yondering has been talking about) need to share the load evenly, and therefore need to mate evenly.
Squaring the face with the top rail - this is for cranking the scope/elevation. When cranking the scope's elevation no horizontal bias is introduced, and when cranking windage no vertical bias is introduced.
Yondering,
Here we go again. Check your ad hom at the door please and concentrate on the merits of our arguments.
I never said the receiver face needs to be square with itself, and on that I agree with you - It makes no sense.
I will add that the receiver face needs to be square with itself.
The logic being the bore to the reticle is an interface of connected parts. It helps if they are square with themselves, so when they come together the bore axis is square with the aiming point of the erector mechanism in the scope.
Yondering,
Well, that was interesting.
You don't prevail in a technical discussion by simply telling the other person they are wrong. And certainly not by attacking them. Do you have any logic you can bring to the table, or is it all ad hominem?
You are far more fair tempered on the Grendel Forum, no doubt because the Mods wouldn't stand for it. Put your manners back in and act your age.