Corona virus death rate.

[buffalowinter]

Really getting tired of all the doom talk. Just saw there have been 31 deaths in the US. The US population is roughly 325,000,000. Do the math. 31 divided by 325,000,000 is 0.000000095. There have been 1000 reported cass of Corona Virus. Thats 1000 divided by 325,000,000 or .000003

 

[Mwalex]

Stats mean nothing to the communists. This is being done on purpose for a few reasons.

Thanks for crunching the numbers.

 

[rustyinbend]

Really getting tired of all the doom talk. Just saw there have been 31 deaths in the US. The US population is roughly 325,000,000. Do the math. 31 divided by 325,000,000 is 0.000000095. There have been 1000 reported cass of Corona Virus. Thats 1000 divided by 325,000,000 or .000003


View attachment 7270677

1,040 confirmed cases ... 29 deaths ... 2.7% fatality rate.

If my elderly parent dies from this, the fatality rate for me is 100%.

Extrapolating this either way ... all personal based on family infection ... or massively diffused based on global population ... is a mistake.

I'd rather just work from real numbers and empirical infection/death rates to mold my personal remediation strategy.

I'm just sayin' ...

 

[Romeo458]

The media's job is to control the opinion of the masses while keeping them distracted and afraid.

If you are constantly operating in a high stress fight or flight mode you are easier to control and less likely to use your own logic.

 

[Romeo458]

1,040 confirmed cases ... 29 deaths ... 2.7% fatality rate.

If my elderly parent dies from this, the fatality rate for me is 100%.

Extrapolating this either way ... all personal based on family infection ... or massively diffused based on global population ... is a mistake.

I'd rather just work from real numbers and empirical infection/death rates to mold my personal remediation strategy.

I'm just sayin' ...

Flu in the same time frame has killed more in the US.

 

[buffalowinter]

Don't get me wrong...the problem needs to be addressed and appropriate actions taken. What we don't need is the media fomenting unrest to sell advertising time or push political agendas.

 

[Romeo458]

On Facebook I posted on an article a friend put up that CNN said that there is over 700 deaths in the US. I posted a link to the CDC website showing the data for infected and deaths and everything else that it was like a 160 at the time. Lady replied to me she wasn't sure if that was accurate and wondered know the date on the CNN article because it was going to be more reputable... than the CDC. ?

 

[Mwalex]

People are getting sucked into the next great media sideshow and it is achieving its goal. As mentioned more people died from flu in the US last year by a wide margin than coronavirus. The people that have died from coronavirus would have died from flu. One major issue with coronavirus is its infection rate, which is higher than flu.

 

[rustyinbend]

Flu in the same time frame has killed more in the US.

The infection-to-death ratio of the flu is 1/20th of this new virus (~0.1%). (Fact)

 

[rustyinbend]

On Facebook I posted on an article a friend put up that CNN said that there is over 700 deaths in the US. I posted a link to the CDC website showing the data for infected and deaths and everything else that it was like a 160 at the time. Lady replied to me she wasn't sure if that was accurate and wondered know the date on the CNN article because it was going to be more reputable... than the CDC. ?

I trust verifiable facts from reputable sources (like the CDC or Johns-Hopkins).
I trust almost nothing I see on the Internet ... especially something seen on Facebook, or Cable News (from any source).

 

[buffalowinter]

The numbers I used are from HLN. I am watching HLN right now, live, and these are the numbers they are reporting...every 15 minutes.

 

[rustyinbend]

The numbers I used are from HLN. I am watching HLN right now, live, and these are the numbers they are reporting...every 15 minutes.

THIS ... is a trusted source for real-time data (Johns-Hopkins).

 

[Downtown]

Whatever the numbers are today, I hope we all realize that the danger is that an exponential rise in cases could overwhelm some healthcare systems. That has happened in Europe. It's not pretty. Perhaps we are prepared for that and there is no reason to worry.

 

[E. Bryant]

With around 1,000 confirmed cases today, a 6-day doubling period yields 1 million total cases by mid-May if no measures are taken to reduce the transmission rate.

That would kill 35,000 people if the transmission magically stopped at that point, which seems improbable.

Add to that the number of additional deaths that will occur because timely medical care will not be available for all the other health issues that try to kill us. If your local hospital's ICU is packed full of coronavirus cases, might that impact one's ability to get treatment for heart trouble, stroke, diabetes complications, or traumatic injury? Seems like it should be a concern.

Just a few things to consider when going entering the OODA loop.

 

[Downtown]

The Arcgis dashboard is likely the most accurate count of cases. Did you notice as of yesterday the cases are no longer indicated by individual county, but now by state?

 

[OldSalty]

Perhaps we are prepared for that and there is no reason to worry.

Uh, I hate to be bearer of bad news but no way our health system is prepared.

Probably will be worse than some EU countries.

 

[rustyinbend]

Whatever the numbers are today, I hope we all realize that the danger is that an exponential rise in cases could overwhelm some healthcare systems. That has happened in Europe. It's not pretty. Perhaps we are prepared for that and there is no reason to worry.

My wife is buying food and supplies ... in case we have to quarantine or isolate.
I'm buying more ammo ... in case it mutates into a "Zombie-Virus".
(Hey ... it could happen.)

 

[OldSalty]

The Arcgis dashboard is likely the most accurate count of cases. Did you notice as of yesterday the cases are no longer indicated by individual county, but now by state.

Yep, noticed that and posted it in the other thread.

Makes you go hmmmm, doesnt it?

 

[rustyinbend]

The Arcgis dashboard is likely the most accurate count of cases. Did you notice as of yesterday the cases are no longer indicated by individual county, but now by state.

Saw that ... it's a reflection of a growing "volume" and the difficulty of maintaining more granular records.

 

[rustyinbend]

Yep, noticed that and posted it in the other thread.

Makes you go hmmmm, doesnt it?

Same as the Johns-Hopkins version.

 

[buffalowinter]

THIS ... is a trusted source for real-time data (Johns-Hopkins).

i agree, and that's my point...this is a media driven event whose main concern is a combination of gaining advertising revenue or pushing political agendas.

 

[pmclaine]

Did you notice its the most leftist suspects that are going the most leftist full retard in promoting the paranoia.

Harvard, Ivy League schools, MA, NY, RI.....

Its like they were coordinated or had a vested interest.

Expecting Gavin Newsom will be Seth Riched for his recent praise of Trump.

 

[pmclaine]

My wife is buying food and supplies ... in case we have to quarantine or isolate.
I'm buying more ammo ... in case it mutates into a "Zombie-Virus".
(Hey ... it could happen.)

From what I know about Zombies very little lead is needed if any at all.

Seems like you just hold wind and if they happen to be walking into the wind its pretty much a stationary target.

Shouldnt be much challenge.

For real fun its likely most resort to edge weapons.

 

[rhsc]

Keep in mind that the death rates being published for this Corona virus are only for diagnosed cases. Nobody knows how many people are getting infected and either show no symptoms or have only relatively mild symptoms and think it's just a regular cold or flu - and then never go see a doctor. We won't know the actual death rate for months or years, if ever. What is known is that the groups most vulnerable to this particular strain are the elderly, those with a compromised immune system, and those who have a serious, pre-existing cardio-pulminary condition. So if you're in reasonably good health, you probably don't have anything to worry about. There's way too much uninformed speculation being published in the media about this disease.

 

[clcustom1911]

Even with the flu, its absolutely impossible to know how many actual cases because you can't test everyone in the country. Hell, even when I was working in an urgent care in the flu season of 2017/2018 the Doc was diagnosing influenza based only on symptoms and we weren't performing any specialized tests because whether it was flu or not, the general treatments were going to be the same.

Here's what the CDC is estimating so far for the flu season starting October 1, 2019 to now...

Are we going to flip the fuck out when
there are 2-3,000,000 cases of COVID19 floating around? I'm not. There are already indications this thing my slow down when the climate warms... example in the Philippines and their warmer climate right now. They have a total of 49 cases According to this news outlet.. and they have been dealing with this for equally as long or longer than us, and their public health systems aren't exactly on par with the US. I'm not saying this thing will go away when it warm sup, but just something to think about .... All these respiratory bugs only thrive in cool and dry climates. That's why they fizzle out when it warms up.

Unless this is truly a man-made buggy and designed to stay strong on the warm climates and cold climates.... well see.

 

[rustyinbend]

Even with the flu, its absolutely impossible to know how many actual cases because you can't test everyone in the country. Hell, even when I was working in an urgent care in the flu season of 2017/2018 the Doc was diagnosing influenza based only on symptoms and we weren't performing any specialized tests because whether it was flu or not, the general treatments were going to be the same.

Here's what the CDC is estimating so far for the flu season starting October 1, 2019 to now...

View attachment 7270759


Are we going to flip the fuck out when
there are 2-3,000,000 cases of COVID19 floating around? I'm not. There are already indications this thing my slow down when the climate warms... example in the Philippines and their warmer climate right now. They have a total of 49 cases According to this news outlet.. and they have been dealing with this for equally as long or longer than us, and their public health systems aren't exactly on par with the US. I'm not saying this thing will go away when it warm sup, but just something to think about .... All these respiratory bugs only thrive in cool and dry climates. That's why they fizzle out when it warms up.

Unless this is truly a man-made buggy and designed to stay strong on the warm climates and cold climates.... well see.

In the immortal words of Hillary Clinton ... "Hope is a feeling, not a strategy."

 

[clcustom1911]

I never said I was "hoping" for anything. Just saying what happens with the rest of these respiratory bugs annually. Hence the "flu season" is October to peak during the coldest times and tapering off into March/April/May months.

 

[Jefe's Dope]

Just compare how China handled this vs. Italy.

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

www.arcgis.com

China is near back to business as usual and Italy just shut down the entire country. I prefer to the short early pain vs. the long drawn out heavy pain. But that's just me.

 

[Son of Dorn]

From what I know about Zombies very little lead is needed if any at all.

Seems like you just hold wind and if they happen to be walking into the wind its pretty much a stationary target.

Shouldnt be much challenge.

For real fun its likely most resort to edge weapons.

Sufficiently-powerful slingshot oughta take care of zombies if they're the slow kind.

If they're voodoo ones... It depends on the brand of zombii but lots of weapons won't be a bad idea.

 

[jcm331]

I agree with clc1911, if we are going to flip out about covid, we need to be doing the same for influenza, elderly hunker down and kids don't go to school. The annual influenza burden is enormous and we a flipping out over covid.

 

[rustyinbend]

I never said I was "hoping" for anything. Just saying what happens with the rest of these respiratory bugs annually. Hence the "flu season" is October to peak during the coldest times and tapering off into March/April/May months.

I get that ... it's my way of poking fun at the entire premise of this goofy thread.

 

[zeroz]

1,040 confirmed cases ... 29 deaths ... 2.7% fatality rate.

If my elderly parent dies from this, the fatality rate for me is 100%.

Extrapolating this either way ... all personal based on family infection ... or massively diffused based on global population ... is a mistake.

I'd rather just work from real numbers and empirical infection/death rates to mold my personal remediation strategy.

I'm just sayin' ...

Real numbers? Good luck with that. Anyone can make up or extrapolate what the want.

I'll stick with reality based action.

Scared, frail or sick= stay at home, flu can kill your ass too!

Not scared or healthy= wash your hands, business as usual. Gotta die of something, probably not gonna be covid.

sheep= panic

 

[E. Bryant]

If 90% of the cases are so mild that they go undiagnosed, that buys us...

... 20 more days until the healthcare system is overwhelmed.

Math sucks.

 

[clcustom1911]

If 90% of the cases are so mild that they go undiagnosed, that buys us...

... 20 more days until the healthcare system is overwhelmed.

Math sucks.

I don't disagree. But, our healthcare system is, in my biased as fuck opinion, is better than whatever the Euro's or elsewhere in the world. We have the ability to scale up or down quickly because we're not government run and dont have all the layers of bureaucracy the socialized medicine countries have.

 

[Supersubes]

One has to wonder, with how high profile this is vs the standard flu, transmission rates have to be down. Events are cancelled, people are staying home, hand sanitizer/general disinfectant usage, etc. Seems to me it’s going to underperform projections. A good thing

 

[Centuriator]

The key difference with this new mutation of corona virus is that there is no vaccine for it, no anti-viral meds for it and test kits to confirm its presence are scarce, at this point. By 2021 there should be a vaccine, anti-virals and plenty of test kits. If this virus does spread rapidly across the nation, hospitals could be overwhelmed in trying to provide ventilators for people who need breathing support.

I"m all in favor of not buying into the hype the media feeds on, but on the other hand, there is no point in being apathetic about the realities of this virus.

 

[Supersubes]

I have an uncle that has a cruise booked for this week. Their group was double digits in size. All but two have cancelled, and the cruise line has offered a 100% refund if cancelled 24hrs before departure. Response may not be perfect, but the panic has to slow transmission rates.

 

[Jefe's Dope]

FYI, your hand sanitizer is essentially ineffective.

 

[clcustom1911]

FYI, your hand sanitizer is essentially ineffective.

Why is that?

 

[Jefe's Dope]

Gross! School experiment shows students why they need to wash their hands

Let this bread touched by a host of elementary school students show why washing your hands is so important, especially during flu season.

www.today.com

"As somebody who is sick and tired of being sick and tired of being sick and tired. Wash your hands!" Metcalf wrote on Facebook. "Remind your kids to wash their hands! And hand sanitizer is not an alternative to washing hands!! At all! This is so DISGUSTING!!!"

Show Me the Science – When & How to Use Hand Sanitizer in Community Settings | Handwashing | CDC

Information about handwashing and hand hygiene

www.cdc.gov

 

[E. Bryant]

I don't disagree. But, our healthcare system is, in my biased as fuck opinion, is better than whatever the Euro's or elsewhere in the world. We have the ability to scale up or down quickly because we're not government run and dont have all the layers of bureaucracy the socialized medicine countries have.

Just out of curiosity, where will the equipment and manpower come for this scaling-up?

 

[Fig]

If it wasn't so dangerous to the elderly I'd almost rather just get it and get it over with.

 

[Greenday4537]

Really getting tired of all the doom talk. Just saw there have been 31 deaths in the US. The US population is roughly 325,000,000. Do the math. 31 divided by 325,000,000 is 0.000000095. There have been 1000 reported cass of Corona Virus. Thats 1000 divided by 325,000,000 or .000003


View attachment 7270677

That's not how stats works...

31 deaths divided by 1,000 cases we've hit. That's 3.1% of people who've gotten it in America have died.

 

[clcustom1911]

Just out of curiosity, where will the equipment and manpower come for this scaling-up?

Triage of patients to only admit ones that actually need inpatient care as well as surge capabilities hospitals have to fill unused beds, etc. Every hospital has different capabilities, capacities, etc. Not to mention cooperation with state national guard units and their mobile field hospital capabilities, etc.

There is a real possibility of being overwhelmed, so we'll just have to play it by ear and see how the cookie crumbles on this one.

I don't think we'll turn into martial law like what happened in Cedar Creek, CA in 1995.... that was a real dooozy. But, if things get sideways, we may need to have military's medical resources assist the private hospitals.

 

[Supersubes]

Gross! School experiment shows students why they need to wash their hands

Let this bread touched by a host of elementary school students show why washing your hands is so important, especially during flu season.

www.today.com

Show Me the Science – When & How to Use Hand Sanitizer in Community Settings | Handwashing | CDC

Information about handwashing and hand hygiene

www.cdc.gov

That CDC link says it is effective, but less so than hand washing.

What I was getting at though is the mindset. People are thinking about it and acting accordingly.

 

[BytorJr]

One could argue washing hands is also not effective if one is in a place of business. Easy enough to mostly disinfect one’s home. But by the time you go from bathroom to work area no telling a how many times one has already exposed themselves to germs. So whilst washing and sanitizers reduce ones risk, they don’t make it zero. That’s for sure.

 

[clcustom1911]

Gross! School experiment shows students why they need to wash their hands

Let this bread touched by a host of elementary school students show why washing your hands is so important, especially during flu season.

www.today.com

Show Me the Science – When & How to Use Hand Sanitizer in Community Settings | Handwashing | CDC

Information about handwashing and hand hygiene

www.cdc.gov

There is no substitute for the mechanical action and agitation of running water, soap, and rubbing hand together. Period. Hand sanitizer was invented as a temporary measure that people have given it equal footing over time.

I've seen people use hand sanitizer after the range and I kindly inform them the alcohol actually opens up the pores in their skin and allows all the funky stuff (lead, carbon, antimony, etc) to get into their layers of skin that will eventually slough off into their food where they consume it. Cold water and soap after range.

Warm/hot water and soap before and after touching funky people LOL.

 

[longshooter]

It can't survive normal room temps. Month of April will eradicate it.

 

[Fig]

Sanitizer's only efficacy is trying to kill something that is alive on your hands. This would apply far, far, far more to bacteria than to a virus. Bacteria does not like alcohol, but a for a ton of bacteria it's not lethal. A virus doesn't like it either, but a virus is a lot tougher than bacteria (hardly even alive by conventional definition).

Honestly, alcohol is more likely to move viruses and even bacteria around rather than actually killing them. Chlorine bleach kills shit. It's like putting fire on germs. Any ill health effects of using real bleach are negated by the fact that it actually works and kills shit dead on contact.

Washing won't kill anything at all, but it will literally wash it off and send it down the drain.

 

[Inifinty]

It evaporates before there is enough contact time too