To you guys that are well connected and smarter than me. How much longer will the ammunition shortage last. I think to after Election Day. But not sure after that.
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How much longer will the ammunition shortage last
- Thread starter Don-n-Texas
- Start date
An honest guess: 6 - 14 months post Dec 2020 assuming pre COVID
It's going to last after the election for sure. How long depends on factors such as who gets elected but either way it will persist. If Biden gets elected there are obvious reasons why ammo shortages and anything else gun related will continue to be scarce, but if President Trump is re-elected the civil unrest will continue to prompt panic buying/hoarding. In reality it's anyone's GUESS.
^^ Yep. If Biden gets elected, it's going to get much much worse. If Trump is elected, I'd guess 2022 we will see good availability and pricing again.
Edit: Your best bet is to place back orders now and wait for those vendors fill the orders.
Edit: Your best bet is to place back orders now and wait for those vendors fill the orders.
Anecdotal, but my LGS owner told me that an order he placed recently (I forget the manufacturer) would be filled in October - of 2021.
Local ammo manufacturer, last I heard, had a 68 million dollar order backlog, and is operating 24/7/365.
Local ammo manufacturer, last I heard, had a 68 million dollar order backlog, and is operating 24/7/365.
At least the summer of next year, maybe a tick later depending on the election
I work in the semiconductor industry. We go through these cycles every 4-6 years. The smart ammunition manufacturers are probably not spending cash on capital equipment to increase capacity. This is because the demand bubble can burst at any time. All of the profit that a manufacturer could make between now and when things get back to "normal" might only end up paying off the equipment investment and under less than ideal conditions, maybe only part of it. There will be a bottom at some point and the ammunition manufacturers will have to slash prices to make sales into a market that is overbought. It is classic supply and demand.
For the consumer, the only way to get out in front of these situations is to have been buying at the bottom of the cycle, which pretty well ended about last March. I wouldn't recommend that someone get into reloading right now, there's definitely no price or availability benefit. As things ease up (unknown as to when that will happen, but it will), that's the time to start buying. It'll probably take a good 9 months to get there, depending on any known or unknown "events" between now and then.
For the consumer, the only way to get out in front of these situations is to have been buying at the bottom of the cycle, which pretty well ended about last March. I wouldn't recommend that someone get into reloading right now, there's definitely no price or availability benefit. As things ease up (unknown as to when that will happen, but it will), that's the time to start buying. It'll probably take a good 9 months to get there, depending on any known or unknown "events" between now and then.
Anybody know where I can get some small pistol primers,. Just kidding.
It's not really that stuff isn't coming in stock, it's that not much is and it doesn't last long. I've had decent luck by signing up to get text alerts on my phone. Just yesterday I could have gotten 100 boxes of hornady .45 critical defense (i just bought a couple cause I'm sitting well). Thing is 10 minutes later it was all gone. Same with lapua 22lr. Just bought a couple bricks. My advice is to sign up to be notified and be very quick.
I’m local to Kentucky gun company, one of the larger online dealers. They also said expect Sept-Oct ‘21 before the orders they placed were filled and availability returned.
sounds pretty consistent from many sources.
of course.. all things dependent on what a potential president Harris does...
sounds pretty consistent from many sources.
of course.. all things dependent on what a potential president Harris does...
ArmyJerry was a prophet. Some followed his teachings some did not?
I have enough for me, still have a fair amount of everything but brass for reloading.
I have been buying more bourbon. Plenty of that available.
I have been buying more bourbon. Plenty of that available.
As long as assholes keep buying ammo that they will never shoot.
Every time this shit comes around, and believe me I've seen this horse shit since '93, there's always a bunch of folks a couple years later trying to sell their high dollar ammo to pay off their maxed out credit card.
It'd be great if everyone would calm down and act like they have a brain.
Every time this shit comes around, and believe me I've seen this horse shit since '93, there's always a bunch of folks a couple years later trying to sell their high dollar ammo to pay off their maxed out credit card.
It'd be great if everyone would calm down and act like they have a brain.
AJ did have a point even if misplaced some.
The point I always made was to treat ammo like the stock market. Buy when other people are selling and sell when they're buying.
In other words, when the Obama effect was in and people panic bought, I stayed pat. When Trump was elected and things went down, I bought and stocked up on supplies as I was able.
Now, I don't need to buy. I'm not shooting much, but I am ok on ammo.
And bourbon.
The point I always made was to treat ammo like the stock market. Buy when other people are selling and sell when they're buying.
In other words, when the Obama effect was in and people panic bought, I stayed pat. When Trump was elected and things went down, I bought and stocked up on supplies as I was able.
Now, I don't need to buy. I'm not shooting much, but I am ok on ammo.
And bourbon.
I missed out on the 10c Lapua 22 bricks the other day. Not sure why I talked myself out of it. So I jumped on the same price but less quality winchester the other day. I find myself shooting 22 at 100 yards (6" steel) at the range for fun. Open sights - not even those "fancy" sights that came on some Speedmasters back in the day. Yes, it's a 6" target, but with a huge bead, unsupported, it's still somewhat of a challenge to steady yourself. I knew in March I should have just unloaded a bank account on ammo. now that my range has a lot more steel on the long distance range instead of paper, I find myself going a LOT more.
As for ammo, should joe and his ho get elected, you can say there will NEVER be ammo in stock again. However, if Trump gets re-elected and things "normalize" then I think MAYBE by Oct 2022 we'll see most rounds and VARIETY returning to shelf...rounds like 308, 270Win, 30-06, 243 Win. Now, as for prices, likely never recover because even if Trump wins in 2020, it'd be hard to imagine 2024 bringing anything other than a 'red' to the office of POTUS.
As was mentioned, "smart" ammo suppliers are not buying new equipment because they're in a "boom" cycle and it's cheaper to pay overtime and pass that cost on to the consumer as supply and demand (as it was designed, btw).
I may add - I always pick up my brass. Vacuum it. Even in gravel. Takes a while to sort; but folks that don't police their brass are fortunately leaving me a lot of 223 and even some 308. I don't reload (I always swear I will start), but I have a collection of once fired brass that will be a nice start. I shoot a lot of Blazer 9mm so I think from what I've read, that stuff isn't easy to reload (may be an internet myth).
As for ammo, should joe and his ho get elected, you can say there will NEVER be ammo in stock again. However, if Trump gets re-elected and things "normalize" then I think MAYBE by Oct 2022 we'll see most rounds and VARIETY returning to shelf...rounds like 308, 270Win, 30-06, 243 Win. Now, as for prices, likely never recover because even if Trump wins in 2020, it'd be hard to imagine 2024 bringing anything other than a 'red' to the office of POTUS.
As was mentioned, "smart" ammo suppliers are not buying new equipment because they're in a "boom" cycle and it's cheaper to pay overtime and pass that cost on to the consumer as supply and demand (as it was designed, btw).
I may add - I always pick up my brass. Vacuum it. Even in gravel. Takes a while to sort; but folks that don't police their brass are fortunately leaving me a lot of 223 and even some 308. I don't reload (I always swear I will start), but I have a collection of once fired brass that will be a nice start. I shoot a lot of Blazer 9mm so I think from what I've read, that stuff isn't easy to reload (may be an internet myth).
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People that buy like that make the cost of ammo cheaper in the long run. They finance production expansions. They push the boom bust cycle higher so the dips are lower.
I told y’all to buy the $300 Psa ar15s and the $340 for 10 pmags and 1000 Hornady 556
Y’all shoulda listened
Meh. The more bs malum prohibitum laws they make, the less people will pay attention to them. Especially while they at the same time release all kinds of criminals like pedos and don’t prosecute actual crimes.
I tell everyone this.
And, to purchase all supplies you need to burn out your barrels up front (where possible/reasonable).
Then, when people begin selling their massive hoard of supply as demand softens, buy them CHEAP.
Here's an example of "shortage" Was on ammo-seek while something running on my "work" computer. 22LR from creedmoor sports. 11.8 cents a round. Same time 2000 round brick from Midway (browning 36gr) for 8 cents/round. I ordered some of the browning. Time I got that done, all ammo at Creedmoor was GONE. 5 minutes tops. Until that grab and go stops, don't expect supply increase/price decrease to happen. Yes, I'm guilty of a grab and go. 22 has become my practice tool of choice for rifle and pistol. I don't think I could clays shoot well with those #12 shotshells 
.
.was that the Steel cased stuff? Or was it brass 55g? Just curious.
I have spotted some Black Hills 77g SMK for $1/round which really isn't that much off the price "pre-covid/riots/joe&ho."
The time that you need to expend ammo may be soon. I hope everyone already has their basic load and war reserve.
After that it’s time to raid any known large ammo storage sites.
After that it’s time to raid any known large ammo storage sites.
The Hornady frontier brass case 55. Stuff was/is accurate and hot. Some people said it blew guns up lol. My and my buddies guns love it.
That’s a decent price for BH 77s. Any TMK s ?
No TMK's that I saw. I'm tempted to buy them; but my CC is probably already melting
. Christmas is early, that's all. Still cheaper than 4 track weekends a year and much less than a Rush concert journey.What's this "selling" concept you speak of? Never heard of such, please explain. People actually buy high priced fuel and high priced ammo, yet never plan on going to the range with it? Granted, right now I'm stingy with my 270 win, since it's a newer purchase and I didn't have time to really think about stockpiling and getting practice with it.
Seriously though, I think it's semi-legit to buy ammo you never plan on shooting - say for a historic weapon or something that one knows will either be improbable to acquire in future (like 38 S&W which is quickly dying for suppliers despite being used into the 80's in 3rd world) or some of the 41 caliber rounds from late 1800s/early 1900s. Having ammo would make the gun more valuable with ammo to go with it - my thoughts anyway.
I havent researched it, but im pretty sure there hasn't been a big run on .41 Rimfire and .32S&W long, or 38 S&W either.
I figure 6.5 creedmoor will go to .40 a round juusssttt about the time I get everything to start reloading.
Assuming that Trump wins? Another year or two.
Assuming he loses? Until the end of time.
Obviously you haven't researched it. There was a run on 38 S&W way back in May/June
Ammoseek still shows none. Nor is there any 41 Rimfire. Plenty of 32 S&W long though. You're good to go .That's what makes this run, IMO, historic. Not sure those less-than-popular rounds sold out last two "runs."
My source at Federal says no earlier than Fall 2022 and most likely it still be 2023! 
I know Hornady has sold around 5 years worth of production according to my rep buddy. He said the month of March alone the entire year of planned production sold. Add the lack of some personnel because of kung flu and a slight shortage of raw materials, it may be a while.
It's available if you still need it but yikes....
www.targetsportsusa.com
Target Sports has remained fair in their pricing through this, .64/round for m855 is just crazy to me. But it is available for those who failed or were unable to prepare.
Winchester 5.56mm M855 NATO Ammo 62 Gr Green Tip FMJ 200 Rounds Value Pack - Ammo Deals
Winchester 5.56mm M855 NATO Ammo 62 Grain Green Tip FMJ 200 Rounds Value Pack for sale at Target Sports USA. Enjoy free shipping on bulk 5.56x45mm NA
www.targetsportsusa.com
And gun prices are fricking unreal. My brother was looking for an AK and even POS Century imports are going for nearly $900. I told him to look around for an SKS but then I googled then and they're insane as well. I bought a couple Yugo SKS's maybe 10 years ago for maybe $150.
