Inflation.......... ?

[Bigfatcock]

"Single-family rental average rent increased by 17.1% year-over-year to $2,195. The median price was highest in the zip code 75071 — $479,000, up 26.1% YoY"
This is my zipcode... but luckily, we are locked at an older valuation so our taxes are actually going down. Sucks for everybody else though and my home insurance rates.

I’ve left so much money on the table by not increasing my rents over the years, but I have good renters who take care of the property.

I just don’t see how the average working family can sustain a 17% rent increase, gas up 120%, realistic 20% inflation on groceries, and 50% increase on utilities since summer of 2020.

It’s really kind of scary looking at it all.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I’ve left so much money on the table by not increasing my rents over the years, but I have good renters who take care of the property.

I just don’t see how the average working family can sustain a 17% rent increase, gas up 120%, realistic 20% inflation on groceries, and 50% increase on utilities since summer of 2020.

It’s really kind of scary looking at it all.

Common sense talk yesterday at my local feed store. An employee in his mid 40's said.. When my Grandpa came to this valley he bought a house on a one income family budget. When my Dad got married he and his wife bought a house on a one full time / one part time family budget. When I got married it took a two full time incomes to buy my house. Now, my children are renting / sharing a house with all 4 people working good wage, full time incomes. History is forecasting the future of America.

 

[E. Bryant]

The FED is about 6 months late in waking up.

Fed's Bullard says inflation 'could get out of control,' so action is needed now

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard cautioned that without action on interest rates, inflation could become an even more serious problem.

www.cnbc.com

It took the Fed 13 years to create this problem. Why do we think it would be quick to take action to fix this mess?

 

[E. Bryant]

No shit!!!!!!! But on ther hand, can fiat money be misallocated?

It sure as fuck can. Imagine if those trillions didn't go into pumping the Wall Street casino, and instead were allocated towards the capex required for mass onshoring of all the work we sent overseas in the past quarter-century. We'd still have $30 trillion in federal government debt and $11 trillion in non-bank corporate debt and $13 trillion in household debt, but dang it at least we'd be in a position to generate actual productivity.

 

[lariat]

It sure as fuck can. Imagine if those trillions didn't go into pumping the Wall Street casino, and instead were allocated towards the capex required for mass onshoring of all the work we sent overseas in the past quarter-century. We'd still have $30 trillion in federal government debt and $11 trillion in non-bank corporate debt and $13 trillion in household debt, but dang it at least we'd be in a position to generate actual productivity.

Iwas referring to the fact that it is essentially fake money so it cant really be misallocated. At least this is the only explanation I have for the actions by some in power. This has to be their outlook on it. all.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I'm no expert but the way I interpret this (the built for rent bfr craze by large investment groups) is not a good sign for the economy that the big boys are getting into the residential rental market. In my mind, they are placing a high value on a stabilized cash flow into the future especially one where it allows equity committments to be recycled if needed/wanted. Seems like it is putting a premium on safety at the risk of sacrificing some growth potential.

I agree....... But they are rolling the dice while playing with other people's money. But, when the house of card's collapses the big player's like Blackrock will collect on their "reinsurance" policies that are already in place. All of the expense and risk is placed upon the investors.

Reinsurance Definition, Types, and How It Works

Reinsurance is insurance for insurance companies. It results from one or more insurers assuming another insurance company's risk portfolio to try to balance the insurance market.

www.investopedia.com

 

[E. Bryant]

Iwas referring to the fact that it is essentially fake money so it cant really be misallocated. At least this is the only explanation I have for the actions by some in power. This has to be their outlook on it. all.

I think I get what you're saying, but this money isn't "fake" in the sense of Monopoly money. It had some nominal purchasing power for real good (lots of people used it to buy homes and big shiny trucks and probably even a few rifles), and so it can indeed be allocated, and thus misallocated.

The average new home loan is $453,000:

The average size of a new mortgage just set a record, as home prices continue to climb

Rising mortgage rates are crushing refinance demand, and higher home prices are causing purchase loan sizes to grow.

www.cnbc.com

What does the US economy look like if that loan value was instead something more like $250,000 and put towards a home of the size typical of 20-30 years ago, and then that spare $200,000 was spent on capex for millions of small businesses? What if thousands of people bought CNC turning centers instead of $75,000 pickups that are used as commuter vehicles? What if people were allowed to invest $20,500 tax-free each year into their local restaurant or clothing manufacturer or cabinet shop?

So, yeah, I think that "printed" money can be misallocated.

 

[E. Bryant]

Another piece of analysis that suggests that the Fed may intentially crash asset prices as part of the plan:

S&P 500 – What is the Pain Threshold for the Fed and Traders? – MishTalk

mishtalk.com

I do believe that anyone actively promoting this plan or even thinking that it's politically feasible is woefully underestimating the anger that's going to result when middle-aged middle-class investors take a 50% haircut on their investment accounts for the third time in 22 years.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Another piece of analysis that suggests that the Fed may intentially crash asset prices as part of the plan:

S&P 500 – What is the Pain Threshold for the Fed and Traders? – MishTalk

mishtalk.com

I do believe that anyone actively promoting this plan or even thinking that it's politically feasible is woefully underestimating the anger that's going to result when middle-aged middle-class investors take a 50% haircut on their investment accounts for the third time in 22 years.

This describes the plan to eliminate the middle class. Of course people will get angry. Big Brother's reply - "So What ?".....

 

[E. Bryant]

This describes the plan to eliminate the middle class. Of course people will get angry. Big Brother's reply - "So What ?".....

Well, the middle class voted for this. Remember that even Trump wanted Jerome to keep the printers running, and if he couldn't resist the sweet temptation of irrational stock market valuations, I don't think any mainstream presidential candidate will.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Well, the middle class voted for this. Remember that even Trump wanted Jerome to keep the printers running, and if he couldn't resist the sweet temptation of irrational stock market valuations, I don't think any mainstream presidential candidate will.

And therein lies the problem with the Federal Reserve being "Politicized".... The only way to get around this problem is to eliminate the Federal Reserve and allow the market place to level the playing field of finances... I mean, could it get any worse ?

 

[Badjujuu]

Inflation..........?






Is a tax

 

[E. Bryant]

And therein lies the problem with the Federal Reserve being "Politicized".... The only way to get around this problem is to eliminate the Federal Reserve and allow the market place to level the playing field of finances... I mean, could it get any worse ?

I believe we gave up that opportunity when we told Ron Paul to pound sand in 2008 and 2012.

 

[E. Bryant]

Let's throw another log on the fire:

Fertilizer Markets Roiled by Belarus Potash Force Majeure

Tighter supplies for the key crop nutrient could mean further price hikes

www.bloomberg.com

If I'm reading this correctly, the shortage is being caused by sanctions against Belarus for its role as a Putin puppet, so I'm casually dropping this one into the "policy error" bucket. We're gonna need a bigger bucket.

 

[lariat]

Let's throw another log on the fire:

Fertilizer Markets Roiled by Belarus Potash Force Majeure

Tighter supplies for the key crop nutrient could mean further price hikes

www.bloomberg.com

If I'm reading this correctly, the shortage is being caused by sanctions against Belarus for its role as a Putin puppet, so I'm casually dropping this one into the "policy error" bucket. We're gonna need a bigger bucket.

And just to pile on, the main ingredient for Roundup has halted production for the next three months. All of the roundup ready seeds are going to have limited value. Brazil is already throwing out warnings concerning output.

 

[Alpine 338]

This is how much BCX plywood you get for $5200, and I had to drive 7-hours and spend $160 for fuel to get it.

I could have spent another 10% to buy it locally, and would have ended up with a lower grade CDX.

 

[E. Bryant]

 

[Vodoun daVinci]

Kinda seems as if the usefulness of "Money" is coming to an end...seems to be a "concept" now. A Game to be played. Fascinating stuff to newly retired folks like me who have seen most of the Stock Market gains of 2021 wiped out since January 1st 2022. I was hoping to pull $2K a month off my investments.

Now I'll likely have to go back to work at least part time to keep it cooking. Fascinating times we live in. Wish I had a crystal ball.

VooDoo

 

[lariat]

That’s the biggest bunch of crap that has been told. Ok not really, but it’s pretty damn bad. Helicopter Ben at his finest. He must have learned wordsmithing from Greenspan.

 

[E. Bryant]

That’s the biggest bunch of crap that has been told. Ok not really, but it’s pretty damn bad. Helicopter Ben at his finest. He must have learned wordsmithing from Greenspan.

It might be the biggest lie told in my lifetime - bigger than anything Bill Clinton said about Monica, maybe bigger than Saddam's WMDs, and we'll need to wait and see where it eventually ranks next to "the vaccines are safe and effective".

And that was 11 years ago. So who honestly thinks we're gonna turn this train around with a few rapid rate hikes and a couple quarters of technical recession?

 

[Hobo Hilton]

It might be the biggest lie told in my lifetime - bigger than anything Bill Clinton said about Monica, maybe bigger than Saddam's WMDs, and we'll need to wait and see where it eventually ranks next to "the vaccines are safe and effective".

And that was 11 years ago. So who honestly thinks we're gonna turn this train around with a few rapid rate hikes and a couple quarters of technical recession?

I liken our situation to a house that several generations of one family lived in. No one re-roofed the place, painted the bare wood siding or treated the structure for termites. Now the great, great grand-kids have inherited the structure. Utility bills are over due, taxes have built up and the yard is full of junk and trash. Some are saying tear it down to the dirt and start over. Other's are saying rehab the old structure. The old people living in the house are saying we have no money or other place to live. Any solution to this problem is going to be painful.

 

[Alpine 338]

^^^^^
Waiting for the Great Reset.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

^^^^^
Waiting for the Great Reset.

About 18 months away.......

 

[lariat]

Here is an opinion, if you can call it that.

MSN

 

[DarnYankeeUSMC]

I don't see where he inputs wage stagnation into the equation.
The only company keeping close to wage inflation ratio is the government.

Here is an opinion, if you can call it that.

MSN

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Here is an opinion, if you can call it that.

MSN

I have heard a similar analogy at different times in my life. It has always been brought out in the midst of a recession / inflation. Unfortunately, a year or two after America recovers from the recession / inflation the only stories we hear are from the people who "lost everything", had to "Cash in their retirement savings", stopped paying on their "Whole Life" insurance, etc...... I can't recall one financial story, after the recession / inflation that reflects the jest of this sort of article. I'm not chasing this mirage into the coming recession.
JMHO

 

[E. Bryant]

Here is an opinion, if you can call it that.

MSN

Well, that is an opinion.

What about when we get wage inflation (which the Fed will ignore), and then we crash the stock market and economy when the Fed overshoots (which it always does), and then the Fed prints another several trillion? What does that do to the wealth gap?

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Well, that is an opinion.

What about when we get wage inflation (which the Fed will ignore), and then we crash the stock market and economy when the Fed overshoots (which it always does), and then the Fed prints another several trillion? What does that do to the wealth gap?

JMHO

Some Americans, new immigrants, kids just getting out of school, etc have no wealth.... Your scenario will have no effect on them. The very wealthy (those with a net worth of $1 Billion+) have already hedged against your scenario. American's with some net worth, business owners (LLC's), slum lords, Doctor's in a group practice, Lawyers who are partner's in firms, people who are "out on a limb" supporting a family business, Pastor's of Mega Churches, etc will bear the financial brunt of your scenario. In general, it will be felt most by the Middle Class.

 

[Bigfatcock]

This is just to much. I can’t even.

 

[lariat]

This is just to much. I can’t even. View attachment 7813945

Yeah this is a deflection, but you knew it was coming.

OTOH, this morning on Brietbart radio it was suggested that there are some legitimate concerns about the worlds supply of fertilizer and grains coming out of Russia that will raise prices worldwide on food beyond what inflation is already doing. Add to this a year that will see reduced farm output worldwide and you have an issue. China has been stocking grains as well as put inplace a moratorium on selling fertilizer. If you add up a global supply chain fragility and the impacts of war (if it actually comes to that), there is the possibility for some bad outcomes.

 

[E. Bryant]

Yesterday, I heard the local NPR affiliate placing partial blame for high gas prices on "the switch to summer blends". Motherfuckers, it's the third week of February. Ain't no way any of this is about "summer gas". Save that bullshit for when I'm paying $5/gal for diesel around Memorial Day.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Yesterday, I heard the local NPR affiliate placing partial blame for high gas prices on "the switch to summer blends". Motherfuckers, it's the third week of February. Ain't no way any of this is about "summer gas". Save that bullshit for when I'm paying $5/gal for diesel around Memorial Day.

"Keep your friends close, and your enemies closer.“ — Sun Tzu
________________________
I follow Sun Tzu's suggestions. I tune in to NPR, PBS and other liberal news media. I also subscribe to the email news letters of the worst of the worst liberal politicians... Being Old School, I just say I am eavesdropping. I also listen closely and watch the list of sponsors as they scroll down the TV screen.... By doing these things, I follow the money to educate myself on who is buying the air time for the propaganda. It's an interesting pass time.
As a steamfitter / welder I spent time in the refineries across America. One of the best scams was when gasoline became Oxygenated. We built and installed those systems. I worked close with the refinery engineers and they confided in me. The propaganda was, Oxygenated gasoline would burn cleaner. What the engineer explained was they took 50 gallons of gasoline and fluffed it with oxygen. That increased the volume from 50 gallons to 55 gallons +/-. That was a money making operation.

Public broadcasting sponsors are selling snow balls to the Eskimo's.

 

[Bigfatcock]

"Keep your friends close, and your enemies closer.“ — Sun Tzu
________________________
I follow Sun Tzu's suggestions. I tune in to NPR, PBS and other liberal news media. I also subscribe to the email news letters of the worst of the worst liberal politicians... Being Old School, I just say I am eavesdropping. I also listen closely and watch the list of sponsors as they scroll down the TV screen.... By doing these things, I follow the money to educate myself on who is buying the air time for the propaganda. It's an interesting pass time.
As a steamfitter / welder I spent time in the refineries across America. One of the best scams was when gasoline became Oxygenated. We built and installed those systems. I worked close with the refinery engineers and they confided in me. The propaganda was, Oxygenated gasoline would burn cleaner. What the engineer explained was they took 50 gallons of gasoline and fluffed it with oxygen. That increased the volume from 50 gallons to 55 gallons +/-. That was a money making operation.

Public broadcasting sponsors are selling snow balls to the Eskimo's.

I do the same. I watch and read the majority of liberal news outlets, and read a lot of their forums too.

Not so much to follow the money, but to learn their TTP’s. That was where I noticed how much firearms training they were doing starting around 2018. Real good training with paid trainers. Not just shooting, but tactics.

That’s where I also learned a lot about their function, and neat tricks they do at their riots. Like the concrete milkshakes, false flags, etc.

They went dark not to long ago and now it’s only the rabid “kill them all” libs who talk much.

The commies have literally been fighting for their ideals for a couple of years, and have amassed a fair amount of experience, and proven/disproven TTP’s.

 

[Badjujuu]

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Crude prices surged Thursday with Brent topping $100 a barrel over fears the prospect of war in Eastern Europe will threaten to disrupt global oil supply.
Brent, the international oil benchmark, rose more than 6% to $103.78 a barrel, the first time it has exceeded $100 a barrel since 2014, while futures for West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, jumped 6% to $97.58 a barrel.

Oil Surges to Over $100 a Barrel on Global Supply Fears

Brent crude tops $100 a barrel over fears the prospect of war in Eastern Europe will threaten to disrupt global oil supply.

www.barrons.com

 

[Bigfatcock]

Ukraine invasion stokes stagflation worries because Russia is a ‘commodity superstore’

Commodity prices are soaring Thursday as a result of Russia's attack on Ukraine, stoking fears of a shock to a global economy already struggling with persistent inflation.

www.yahoo.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Ukraine invasion stokes stagflation worries because Russia is a ‘commodity superstore’

Commodity prices are soaring Thursday as a result of Russia's attack on Ukraine, stoking fears of a shock to a global economy already struggling with persistent inflation.

www.yahoo.com

View attachment 7814810

A "timely" article.... Along with thousand's like it...
I am seeing so many preposterous "financial number's" being poured out by the US Government, the Fund Managers and even some of the more conservative Mega Corporations ... I'm taking them with a grain of salt. To say they don't add up is an understatement.

I'll throw out a morbid example: If you believe the numbers of how many million's of people died of the virus....
Why is there a housing shortage ? Surely those dead people vacated some properties.

Quoting a .Gov (Link Below):
Both the unemployment rate, at 4.0 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 6.5 million,
changed little in January.
If this is true, why are companies laying off worker's ?

Appearing the left hand does not know what the right hand is doing. JMHO

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

 

[Hobo Hilton]

“With base metals inventories already running extremely low, there is very little additional cushion for further supply disruptions — either from Russia directly or via higher-for-longer gas and power prices,” JPMorgan said in a note to clients.

Aluminum prices jumped more than 3% to hit a record high of $3,450 per ton on the London Metal Exchange. Nickel is now trading at the highest level in more than a decade: around $25,000 per ton.

Metal prices surge on fears of supply disruption, aluminum hits record

Palladium prices jumped to seven-month highs on Thursday as supplies worries intensified after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Don't trust these Government numbers. All they are doing is allowing the FED Reserve to continue to sit on their hands. "We the People" will suffer.

Fed’s favorite inflation gauge up 5.2% for biggest annual gain since 1983

A key inflation measure showed that prices rose at their fastest level in nearly 39 years, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Morning headlines: WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New orders for U.S.-made capital goods increased more than expected in January,

New orders are based on the dollar amount. Factor in for inflation and the reality is, physical orders are down. Don't trust the numbers game.

https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-02-25/u-s-core-capital-goods-orders-shipments-increase-solidly-in-january

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Interesting to watch how the news media is focusing American's attention on the Ukraine.
No focus on how expensive a trip to the grocery store and the gas station are today.
Anyone here bought a set of tires for their vehicle recently ?
Who is watching the back door while the thief steals your wallet ?

 

[devildog93]

Interesting to watch how the news media is focusing American's attention on the Ukraine.
No focus on how expensive a trip to the grocery store and the gas station are today.
Anyone here bought a set of tires for their vehicle recently ?
Who is watching the back door while the thief steals your wallet ?

They can misdirect as much as they want, but not much can distract from approaching double the gas price of 2 years ago and inflation of every corner of your life. Middle income people are getting hammered. I can't even imagine what a joy being on a fixed income is right now with the prospect of dollars devaluing in the background.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

They can misdirect as much as they want, but not much can distract from approaching double the gas price of 2 years ago and inflation of every corner of your life. Middle income people are getting hammered. I can't even imagine what a joy being on a fixed income is right now with the prospect of dollars devaluing in the background.

Well, perhaps I can be the spokesman for those on a 'Fixed Income"...
First I'll acknowledge those on a fixed income that just "roll with the punches". Those are the men and women who can openly tell a vendor or family members "I can't afford to do that". For folks that have had some financially dry times in their life, they know it's better to do without than run up a credit card by keeping up with the Jones's. Unfortunately there is a younger group of American's who are running up their credit card debt.

Another group on a fixed income are the one's that understood how our economy "runs in a cycle".. They put some of that fixed income aside during the good times. Some things they did are to put some extra money on the utilities bill during the summer so they had a balance to pay the winter heating bill. They found a deal on a deep freeze and stocked it, over time, with item's they could use during the lean times. They reduced the insurance coverage on their 20 year old, second car to a basic liability policy. The list of cutting expenses is long. I'm sure some of the members here have gone down that road.

Take a look back at those settler's who traveled West of the Mississippi to get an idea of how to get by.

Unfortunately America has too many people who are living on the dole. Financially, America continues to dig the hole deeper.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Commodity of "Oats"... Up 95% from one year ago. Up 7.38% from previous close.

Oats

7.39

6.88

7.38%

0.51

3/1/2022

USc per Bushel

Oil up 70% from one year ago.

Oil (WTI)

111.25

106.26

4.70%

4.99

08:54:00 AM

USD per Barrel

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Published: Mar. 2, 2022 at 6:53 AM MST|Updated: 31 minutes ago

WASHINGTON (AP) — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made clear Wednesday that the Fed will begin raising interest rates this month in a high-stakes effort to restrain surging inflation.
In prepared testimony he will deliver to a congressional committee, Powell cautions that the financial consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are “highly uncertain.” He says the Fed will “need to be nimble” in responding to unexpected changes resulting from the war or the sanctions that the United States and Europe have imposed in response.
The Fed is widely expected to raise its benchmark short-term interest rate several times this year beginning with its March 15-16 meeting. In his testimony, Powell provided little additional guidance about how quickly the Fed would do so.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

And we thought $100 / barrel oil was high.

Oil slides from decade-highs as Iran talks kindle supply hopes

Oil slid 2% on Thursday, after hitting prices not seen in a decade, as sellers jumped on hopes the United States and Iran will agree soon on a nuclear deal that could add barrels to a tight global market.

www.reuters.com

 

[IkeEng]

Last scheduled POMO purchase of 4 billion is on March 9th. one week before the Fed's next FOMC meeting where it's expected to raise rates by 50 bps. Mostly priced in now, but not sure if the situation in Ukraine will impact their decision.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Last scheduled POMO purchase of 4 billion is on March 9th. one week before the Fed's next FOMC meeting where it's expected to raise rates by 50 bps. Mostly priced in now, but not sure if the situation in Ukraine will impact their decision.

FED / Powell is way behind the curve... Too little, too late. How do you see it ?

 

[devildog93]

FED / Powell is way behind the curve... Too little, too late. How do you see it ?

I'm just waiting for the economy to go over the edge a bit. 5 dollar gas seemed to be a line in the sand for a lot of people. That would get shipping costs and the costs of all goods inflating at a good rate. Have to break it before we can attempt a fix I suppose.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Some of you guy's in manufacturing are dealing with aluminum.

Up 60% for the year. Up 8.27% since yesterday.

Aluminium

3,748.86

3,462.37

8.27%

286.49

01:27:06 PM

USD per Ton