You know..... Some people don't keep all their eggs in one basket.
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Inflation.......... ?
- Thread starter Hobo Hilton
- Start date
This is an example of the willful ignorance of the masses. And once they open their eyes to the permanence of prices they will require a federal handout instead of accountability. Which will require more money to be printedI have witnessed this phenomenon during 3 past recessions. I don't know if it denial or just wishful thinking. This phrase comes to mind "Things just can't get any worse"... Inevitably they do get worse.
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While consumers have come to expect higher inflation over the short-term, inflation expectations over the long-term have remained “remarkably stable” since last summer, according to new research released Monday by the New York Fed. ... Short-term inflation expectations are for one-year ahead.
Consumers don't think high inflation will last very long, NY Fed research shows
New research from the New York Fed Monday suggests that consumers do not think that the current elevated inflation will be very long lasting.www.marketwatch.com
It’s a converted commercial chicken house. I went that route vs building from scratch because it’s pretty fucking large, and has phenomenal ventilation. 2/3 of it is milled lumber storage and the other 1/3 is miscellaneous storage.
You can reenact the Houston warehouse tests in there.
For the things I want to do, the best time to implement this strategy would have been about 10-12 years ago - money was cheap to borrow, and stuff was cheap to buy. I played small ball and simply built the shop I could afford with my savings plus a lot of sweat equity, and filled it with some equipment purchased with cash. What I apparently should have done was taken out what would have seemed to be a fat loan at the time, bought a modest chunk of property with industry zoning, built the right-sized shop (there are only two sizes - too small today, and not big enough tomorrow), and then stuffed it full of gear purchased from various businesses that went under after the '08 crash. It wouldn't have felt like the right thing to do at the time, but I'd be way ahead right now.
Nowadays, I could go deploy all that underutilized credit in the same way, but it' buy half the property and equipment - maybe less. I'll take this as an expensive lesson-learned, and hopefully do better next time. The good news is that if things really go to shit, I just gotta make enough money to keep up on maintenance, utilities, and taxes. Those things ain't getting any cheaper, but adding loan service costs to the mix wouldn't make life any easier.
Thanks - I sincerely appreciate the kind words, especially as I look at the people who are repaying their loans with cheaper dollars while I drive modest vehicles and live in a modest house and am watching my modest savings become worth a bit less each day. Doesn't feel quite fair, but I think my parents were pretty clear in explaining that what is right doesn't always feel fair.
I understand you, and your previous post as well.
I think you made the correct decision. There is something to be said for being debt free and able to sleep without that headache. Leverage goes by another name - Damocles Sword. Most of the time, it's fine and things are great. But make no mistake: the people that shake your hand and slap your back will become very unfriendly if you start to be late on your payments. They are not your friends; business associates, sure, but they are looking out for their job, not your overall wellbeing. Which is understandable.
I realize this is a longish interview, but this guy is a genius and many of the books I used in my master's program were written by him. He covers everything from Bidenflation to CRT. He makes alot of the stupidity understandable.
"the average American doesn't hate the leftists, they are just annoyed by them and leave it at that. But the average leftist hates the red states, and wakes up every morning saying 'what can I do to curb and minimize these people' and then goes to bed at night saying 'I didn't do enough'."
"the average American doesn't hate the leftists, they are just annoyed by them and leave it at that. But the average leftist hates the red states, and wakes up every morning saying 'what can I do to curb and minimize these people' and then goes to bed at night saying 'I didn't do enough'."
I don't think so and in point of fact you are quite sane in my eyes. Being an indentured slave to the bank is a burdensome lifestyle. Good on you and I hope you don't stop. I'm a bit older than you, but even at that still have friends older than me who to this day spend every dime they make. The more money they make they more they increase their standard of living *now* vs some delayed gratification looking to the future. I figure by 50's if someone is still doing that it's never going to stop. Have a college buddy in CA who is beginning to see the ramifications of this come into full view the last few years. I look at American's living these highly levered lifestyles and I wonder what might have happened if they were forced to learn something as simple as a compounding interest model b/f leaving high school?
Inflation is picking up momentum.
www.cnn.com
No end to America's rising prices: Another inflation measure rose in January
America's rising prices were unrelenting in January. Another key inflation measure showed prices rising more than expected last month.
Everyone remember that inflation is an active process, just like deflation. When inflation is stopped, that means that equilibrium has been achieved. This DOES NOT mean that prices wont be high, quite the contrary; it means that prices will have only stopped increasing. The lack of inflation does not mean that the economy is good or that your dollars go farther, and it doesn't mean that prices aren't high relative to some point in the past. Dont let the politicians and government shills confuse you on this. When inflation tapers off they will declare victory, never telling you that high prices are permanent (because they will do EVERYTHING to not have deflation).
Heres a good link:
www.in2013dollars.com
Take a look at this graph. What happened when the jump hit? When did the presses start working overtime?
www.usinflationcalculator.com
Heres a good link:
$1 in 2019 → 2023 | Inflation Calculator
The 4.68% inflation rate means $1 in 2019 is equivalent to $1.20 today. This inflation calculator uses the official US consumer price index published by the Department of Labor.
www.in2013dollars.com
Take a look at this graph. What happened when the jump hit? When did the presses start working overtime?
Current US Inflation Rates: 2000-2024
The annual inflation rate for the United States was 3.4% for the 12 months ending December, compared to the previous rate of 3.1%, according to U.S. Labor Department data published on Jan. 11, 2024. The next inflation update is scheduled for release on Feb. 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET, providing...
www.usinflationcalculator.com
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True... Was at my local farm supply last week... Asking about feed prices. They smiled and said "prices have leveled off". HmmmEveryone remember that inflation is an active process, just like deflation. When inflation is stopped, that means that equilibrium has been achieved. This DOES NOT mean that prices wont be high, quite the contrary; it means that prices will have only stopped increasing. The lack of inflation does not mean that the economy is good or that your dollars go farther, and it doesn't mean that prices aren't high relative to some point in the past. Dont let the politicians and government shills confuse you on this. When inflation tapers off they will declare victory, never telling you that high prices are permanent (because they will do EVERYTHING to not have deflation).
Heres a good link:
$1 in 2019 → 2023 | Inflation Calculator
The 4.68% inflation rate means $1 in 2019 is equivalent to $1.20 today. This inflation calculator uses the official US consumer price index published by the Department of Labor.
I don't think the people are buying the Snake Oil, this time.
Is the mighty US consumer faltering? | CNN Business
America's economy is driven by shoppers who shell out big money for items like iPhones, sofas and cars and experiences such as dining out. So when consumers start to feel less confident, economists and investors worry.
My home insurance policy is up for renewal... 50% increase! It was already high last year.
And this is the problem I was referring to earlier in this thread. Services like insurance are going up because replacement cost along with their own base operating costs are going up. Expect people to drop or cut back on insurance where they can. Most likely in the form of higher deductibles and less coverage.
Wait until all those people who’re excited about the amount of equity added to their houses get their property taxes.
It bites their ass through the back door... Mortgage Companies maintain an escrow account and pay those taxes and insurance... After the fact, a big bill from the mortgage company shows up to refill that escrow account... Always at a very bad time, financially. History repeating.
Just wait for the property tax from an increased "value" as well as increased property taxes to cover services. Inflation goes everywhere and affects everything. Why the fuck they thought this was a good idea is beyond me. Can we just make all elected officials pass an Von Misses economics 101 and accounting 101 class before they serve? Like take the class and test before they even enter the primaries, with annual recertification hour. If they cant pass that then there is no place for them in Washington.
This latest bout of money printing is a complete disaster.
Yeah, it’s pretty fucked, and a lot of people are going to be hurting in the future due to increased fuel prices, food prices, housing costs, taxes, and just about everything else.
About the only price I haven’t seen go up is for hookers.
What’s laughable is who is really making cheddar from all the price increases. Lumber is over $1,200 per 1,000 BF random length. Damn sure aren’t getting that type of money for standing timber, lol.
Interesting you brought this up. I am seeing land being bought and houses being delayed, some have been partially built for a year, with the frames and uncovered walls being subjected to the weather. Banks are being paid for those partial constructions and land as well as wherever those folks are currently living. How that plays out will be fascinating to watch. I see resales and defaults, especially with universal price increases due to the monetary increases.
Yeah, it’s pretty nuts. I’m sitting in good timber, but I’m not letting anyone log it at current standing timber prices. Much more profitable for me to take it down a couple trees at a time, mill it, and sell it to the Etsy flamed wood crowd.
If the average 3 bed house has 16,000-ish BF in it, that’s $19,200 for lumber today. In 2019 that 16,000 bf would have been $5k- $6k ish. That’s going off of random Length Futures.
I think I stated it earlier in this thread that it’s cheaper to buy rough sawn walnut, maple, ash, etc than it is to buy hardware store pine.
I paid $5.50 per SYP 2x4x4 at lowes this weekend. Had to buy as I was helping a friend build something spur of the moment and not near any of my normal stashes. $2.06 per BF for construction grade SYP. The sticker said premium, but I would not classify it as that.
It was good pine though. Had tight growth rings for the most part.
If the average 3 bed house has 16,000-ish BF in it, that’s $19,200 for lumber today. In 2019 that 16,000 bf would have been $5k- $6k ish. That’s going off of random Length Futures.
I think I stated it earlier in this thread that it’s cheaper to buy rough sawn walnut, maple, ash, etc than it is to buy hardware store pine.
I paid $5.50 per SYP 2x4x4 at lowes this weekend. Had to buy as I was helping a friend build something spur of the moment and not near any of my normal stashes. $2.06 per BF for construction grade SYP. The sticker said premium, but I would not classify it as that.
It was good pine though. Had tight growth rings for the most part.
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Yep.... Watching cities plan housing tracks in the suburbs and then tacking on "FEE'S" to the contractors building the houses who will pass those on to the buyer's... Watching history repeat itself for the third time during my life. Soon there will be completed spec homes sitting vacant for 2 - 3 years, building permits expiring, grass growing up in vacant lots with weathering "For Sale" signs....
Could be another Houston after the oil crash. People burning down homes to collect the insurance and then walking away.
Snug your seat belt.
Food for thought:
USDA is “moving quickly” to deliver on $10 billion in disaster aid for droughts, hurricanes, winter storms and other natural disasters that hit producers in 2020 or 2021, USDA’s undersecretary of farm production and conservation told a House Agriculture Subcommittee on Tuesday.
Robert Bonnie told lawmakers through an online video hearing that by the end of March USDA plans to roll out at least half of the $750 million carved out for livestock producers impacted by drought. The $10 billion in disaster aid was approved in a funding bill last September.
agfax.com
USDA is “moving quickly” to deliver on $10 billion in disaster aid for droughts, hurricanes, winter storms and other natural disasters that hit producers in 2020 or 2021, USDA’s undersecretary of farm production and conservation told a House Agriculture Subcommittee on Tuesday.
Robert Bonnie told lawmakers through an online video hearing that by the end of March USDA plans to roll out at least half of the $750 million carved out for livestock producers impacted by drought. The $10 billion in disaster aid was approved in a funding bill last September.
USDA Preparing to Roll Out Disaster Aid – DTN
USDA is 'moving quickly' to deliver on $10 billion in disaster aid for droughts, hurricanes, winter storms and other natural disasters that hit producers in 2020 or 2021, USDA's undersecretary
agfax.com
ECONOMY – FLASH (Feb 14): January 2022 CASS® FREIGHT INDEX collapsed by an unadjusted 10.8% (-10.8%) in the month, by a seasonally adjusted 7.4% (-7.4%), down year-to-year by an unadjusted 2.9% (-2.9%), largely attributed to Omicron impact.
Seeing the little disclaimer phrase more and more - The numbers are not adjusted for inflation,
So all of the businesses reporting a 10% increase in sales are are just padding their books with inflation.
www.cnbc.com
So all of the businesses reporting a 10% increase in sales are are just padding their books with inflation.
Retail sales surge 3.8% in January, much more than expected amid inflation rise
Retail sales for the month rose 3.8% in January, much better than the 2.1% Dow Jones estimate.
Lol
www.yahoo.com
Democrats try to blame inflation on widespread 'price gouging'
Democrats have an inflation problem with voters and have been pointing in a range of directions to try and deflect at least some of that unhappiness. One growing option could be to charge companies with ‘price gouging’.
Proving again they are jut full of shit. Their minions believe them but they are stupid and full of shit.
Look for the choke points in various systems - that's often where you'll find the price increases. I see standing timber everywhere; I don't see quite so many mills.
We took so many physical industries and turned them into optimization games for the financial sector, and this is what we get.
The biggest "choke point" in the lumber industry is the US Government. The US Forest Service hides behind the slogan of Forest Management. In the West, every summer, enough trees are burned to build thousands of houses in America. Watching the "Dumbing of America" being played out.
Hidden in plain sight.
Yes sir. Here in Texas (or Taxes) property taxes are ricockulous. We own our primary home debt free and have homestead and senior exemption that freezes our tax but it is still high. We have a rental house that we just refinanced but the increase in taxes because of assessed value will likely up the escrow so any interest savings will be unrealized.
Yes Sir... I have friends in Texas and some other Southern states who are CPA's, Lawyer's and Businessmen. They don't know a thing about farming, cattle, tractors or horses. They own bare farm land, no hay or livestock. Every year they they get some sort of money or tax credit's from the Government due to failed crops, bad weather, etc... Been doing it for 30 years. Taxes on bare farm land are minimal. The biggest squeeze (financially) is on the middle class.
Attachments
Need the tax slaves back in the office to support commercial real estate, buy chicken fingers, and blow money on other frivolous shit.
No wonder the great resignation continues.
www.yahoo.com
No wonder the great resignation continues.
New York’s Adams Tells CEOs to End Work-From-Home Policies
(Bloomberg) -- New York City Mayor Eric Adams told leaders of major companies in the city it was time to get their workers back in offices, emphasizing that empty buildings are holding back the city’s pandemic recovery.Most Read from BloombergStocks Edge Higher With Fed Hiking Bets Steady...
You sir have hit the nail on the head as well as pointed to the urban center downturn that will occur will to some degree be permanent. So the costs of owning will go up, rent will go up, and more will go out of business.Need the tax slaves back in the office to support commercial real estate, buy chicken fingers, and blow money on other frivolous shit.
No wonder the great resignation continues.
New York’s Adams Tells CEOs to End Work-From-Home Policies
(Bloomberg) -- New York City Mayor Eric Adams told leaders of major companies in the city it was time to get their workers back in offices, emphasizing that empty buildings are holding back the city’s pandemic recovery.Most Read from BloombergStocks Edge Higher With Fed Hiking Bets Steady...
I mean, I would be ecstatic to have employees work from home where applicable. Push all the costs for tech support, electricity, office supplies, furniture, etc onto the employee all while saving on leased office space.
fk him, maybe if they could balance their budget without relying on the transition to high re taxes this wouldn't be an issue it is.Need the tax slaves back in the office to support commercial real estate, buy chicken fingers, and blow money on other frivolous shit.
No wonder the great resignation continues.
New York’s Adams Tells CEOs to End Work-From-Home Policies
(Bloomberg) -- New York City Mayor Eric Adams told leaders of major companies in the city it was time to get their workers back in offices, emphasizing that empty buildings are holding back the city’s pandemic recovery.Most Read from BloombergStocks Edge Higher With Fed Hiking Bets Steady...
House of cards is collapsingNeed the tax slaves back in the office to support commercial real estate, buy chicken fingers, and blow money on other frivolous shit.
No wonder the great resignation continues.
New York’s Adams Tells CEOs to End Work-From-Home Policies
(Bloomberg) -- New York City Mayor Eric Adams told leaders of major companies in the city it was time to get their workers back in offices, emphasizing that empty buildings are holding back the city’s pandemic recovery.Most Read from BloombergStocks Edge Higher With Fed Hiking Bets Steady...
Attachments
The FED is about 6 months late in waking up.
www.cnbc.com
Fed's Bullard says inflation 'could get out of control,' so action is needed now
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard cautioned that without action on interest rates, inflation could become an even more serious problem.
www.cnbc.com
No shit!!!!!!! But on ther hand, can fiat money be misallocated?
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LOL.... Only misallocated by fund managers and individuals..... NEVER by the US Government
Lol. More begging to get the tax slave back to the work. Going back to the office would be a pay cut for any at work at home workers.
It takes a lot of money to keep a job.
Hope the great resignation continues, and shuts down the motor of the world.
www.yahoo.com
It takes a lot of money to keep a job.
Hope the great resignation continues, and shuts down the motor of the world.
'We need to get people back into the office': Public officials take up Microsoft's push to reopen workplaces
As concerns about the pandemic subside, city and county leaders say workers are needed in the office to jump-start the economy. Local government offices are also putting return-to-office plans into place.
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Duh. Been calling this since 2020:
www.yahoo.com
Big investors are hogging American homes
Data: Redfin; Chart: Jared Whalen/AxiosInvestors are draining an increasingly large share of American homes from the market, leaving traditional homebuyers with fewer options, at higher prices.Why it matters: Homeownership is the single most important way Americans build wealth. Families are now...
As Bigfatcock pointed out.... The increase in housing sales and higher prices was due to fund investors buying up properties. Just a reminder, these Fund Managers are buying housing with your pension / retirement fund money. A good time to review your retirement / 401k's and see where your money is being parked. When the housing market crashes, the Manager's will walk away and the fund account's will take the hit. History repeating.
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The median existing-home price for all housing types in January was $350,300, up 15.4% from January 2021 ($303,600), as prices rose in each region. This marks 119 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, the longest-running streak on record.
www.globenewswire.com
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The median existing-home price for all housing types in January was $350,300, up 15.4% from January 2021 ($303,600), as prices rose in each region. This marks 119 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, the longest-running streak on record.
Existing-Home Sales Surge 6.7% in January
Washington, D.C., Feb. 18, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Key Highlights In January 2022, existing-home sales rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate...
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The issue is even if the market crashes, they’ll buy more.As Bigfatcock pointed out.... The increase in housing sales and higher prices was due to fund investors buying up properties. Just a reminder, these Fund Managers are buying housing with your pension / retirement fund money. A good time to review your retirement / 401k's and see where your money is being parked. When the housing market crashes, the Manager's will walk away and the fund account's will take the hit. History repeating.
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The median existing-home price for all housing types in January was $350,300, up 15.4% from January 2021 ($303,600), as prices rose in each region. This marks 119 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, the longest-running streak on record.
Existing-Home Sales Surge 6.7% in January
Washington, D.C., Feb. 18, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Key Highlights In January 2022, existing-home sales rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate...
Perpetual income from rent is the plan, probably.
"Single-family rental average rent increased by 17.1% year-over-year to $2,195. The median price was highest in the zip code 75071 — $479,000, up 26.1% YoY"
This is my zipcode... but luckily, we are locked at an older valuation so our taxes are actually going down. Sucks for everybody else though and my home insurance rates.
This is my zipcode... but luckily, we are locked at an older valuation so our taxes are actually going down. Sucks for everybody else though and my home insurance rates.
“Gold is the money of kings, silver is the money of gentlemen, barter is the money of peasants – but debt is the money of slaves.”
― Norm Franz
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US household debt hit $15.8 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2021, the New York Fed
Household Debt and Credit Report
Background and analysis from the New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel—the data set is regularly reported in the Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit
www.newyorkfed.org
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