Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024

[n2ishun]

Keep seeing all these people saying this has to happen or that has to happen and whatever is the indicator of a recession or depression.

To my (granted, limited) knowledge the US has only had 1 depression, yet people still say there are all these indicators that have to have happened.
Like there is a benchmark or it's happened so often there are sure signs that are solid proof.

Oh. I get it now...
Prices way up.
Wages way down.
Guv printing money like it means nothing and then giving away a smaller countries GDP on a whim, every other week ?
No one can afford to eat well and most are starting to hoard because of these signs that haven't happened yet.

Sounds like pre WWII Germany or something...
Oh, wait

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Worldwide...
People are taking their pension money and running to the closest exit.

Deja Vu

UK Finance Minister Rishi Sunak resigns in serious blow to Boris Johnson’s leadership

 

[Vodoun daVinci]

The Oligarchy is fleecing everyone by scaring them into selling at a loss while they buy back their stock at record low prices with their record profits. Didn't see that coming...oh wait. All new game courtesy of the Global Oligarchy/.01%. This is gonna be fascinating to see how this all runs out. It's like watching the early 1980's again only all the rules have changed and there are still jobs everywhere. Really looks like this whole thing is Man Made/Manipulation to fleece the Middle/Working Class out of their Life's Savings while the Global .01% rake in the peasants losses.

VooDoo

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I have a reason for putting this article under "Recession".
The title sounds positive. However "Factory orders" are calculated in US Dollars. When inflation is 10% and Factory Orders increase by 1.6% then America is loosing ground at the rate of 8.4%.
Building on the sand is easier than building on the rock. It costs less. It is faster. The foolish person thinks anything can go wrong, but it probably won’t. But if it does, all I’ll have to do is unplug or preset the rest button, count to 10, then plug things back in.
If it was only so easy.

https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-07-05/u-s-factory-orders-rise-more-than-expected-in-may

Factory Orders: What They Are, How They Work

Factory orders are economic indicators of the dollar value for durable and non-durable goods.

www.investopedia.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

“There’s something afoot in investor sentiment that is difficult to ignore, given the inversion is occurring with 10-year yields below 3%,” said Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO. “I wouldn’t say it’s a direct indication that a recession is a near-term risk. Rather it’s consistent with increased concern about recession.”

Bonds flash recession warning light as key part of the yield curve inverts again

The bond market is flashing a warning that the economy may be falling or already has fallen into recession, according to one closely watched measure.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The numbers don't add up

Job openings fell in May but still outnumber available workers by almost 2 to 1

Available positions totaled 11.25 million for the month, a considerable drop from the upwardly revised 11.68 million in April, according to the JOLTS report.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Vodoun daVinci]

I have not seen figures on Employment that are taking into account the number of people in their 60's (like myself) who pulled the plug on their jobs and just retired early because of the Covid Craze. Lot's of us older timers just pulled up and cashed out never having seen this bullshit coming. Last I heard millions of workers pulled out and retired starting in 2020-2022 and I wonder how many of those people just do not have replacements/turn key employers waiting for that job.

Anyone one have credible figures on how much if this current worker shortage has been affected by early retirees?

VooDoo

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The "Opening Act" for a Recession... Deja Vu

Red flag: Consumers are using Buy Now, Pay Later to cover everyday expenses

Some Americans are using "Buy Now, Pay Later" for the daily coffee run, the gas station fill-up and the grocery trip. That has economists and consumer advocates concerned.

www.cnn.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

U.S. service sector index at 2-year low, employment shrinks - ISM survey

Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A tractor trailer advertising job opportunities in the trucking industry drives south on Interstate 81 near Staunton, Virginia, U.S.,...

www.userwalls.news

 

[NoDopes]

The "Opening Act" for a Recession... Deja Vu

Red flag: Consumers are using Buy Now, Pay Later to cover everyday expenses

Some Americans are using "Buy Now, Pay Later" for the daily coffee run, the gas station fill-up and the grocery trip. That has economists and consumer advocates concerned.

www.cnn.com

I call it a "credit card"... but I only use it for points and pay it off every month.

 

[Vodoun daVinci]

Yeah, me too. I put everything on the card - groceries, home repair stuff, auto repairs, everything. Then at the end of the month Mama pays off the credit card and asks about anything odd or different. Like "Did you stop at a Gas and Go out in bum fuck Iowa and grab $8 worth of stuff?" Yup...on the road and stopped for a bottle of water and some jerky.

The cool thing is that our credit rating is like 12 points shy of perfect because for 30 years we use our credit card every day for thousands of dollars of purchases and pay it off so regularly that asking for $20K (if I needed to do that...) is a given. We are approved instantly. But we haven't borrowed any money for over 10 years now 'cause the interest rates are stunning. Gonna build a Garage when this latest Recession/Correction/Mind Fuck is stable again and might put half up and finance half...or maybe not. Maybe just pay cash and put the $300 a month difference in the Vanguard Account. Shit's cheap right now.

We'll see on the Recession. Not about to over extend at this point at all.

VooDoo

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Certainly feels like "thing's are slowing down". Hopefully it will be a somewhat methodical slow down into the recession. Seems someone is always stirring the pot on news, financial markets and politics. Boris will resign, Putin is continuing to take Ukraine, inflation continues, Biden's handlers are tiring and resigning.......

Could this be the "New Norm" we were warned about ?

 

[babyguppy]

well, Obama did say, his policies would see gas rise to 5.00 a gallon. (Joe just wanted to show O, he could make them higher) O also said electricity would rise 15 - 30% so there's that..
Liberal New World Order.. just NWO for short

 

[Hobo Hilton]

From JW Rawles:

... but as I will explain, it falls into the category of “emerging threats.”

Neo-Feudalism: Klaus Schwab, the WEF, and The Great Reset

Neo-Feudalism: Klaus Schwab, the WEF, and The Great Reset. I use the term Neo-Feudalism to describe the new order envisioned by Klaus Schwab and the WEF.

survivalblog.com

 

[Bradu]

well, Obama did say, his policies would see gas rise to 5.00 a gallon. (Joe just wanted to show O, he could make them higher) O also said electricity would rise 15 - 30% so there's that..
Liberal New World Order.. just NWO for short

After seeing my electric bill for this month, the prices are going to hurt a lot of people. I haven't looked what last years summer rates were but my electric bill almost doubled from last month. For my little house and just two people, the bill was $255. Last year at this time it was $184. I'd hate to see what it will be for bigger houses and families.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

After seeing my electric bill for this month, the prices are going to hurt a lot of people. I haven't looked what last years summer rates were but my electric bill almost doubled from last month. For my little house and just two people, the bill was $255. Last year at this time it was $184. I'd hate to see what it will be for bigger houses and families.

View attachment 7907185

I feel your pain, seriously. I passed a sign this morning for "Free Firewood"... Not prime stuff, but burnable. I just got back with a small trailer load. Just how the "Poor's" are going to have to get by. Prime firewood here is $200 - $300 / cord, even in the summer. Expecting electric to double during the winter. Propane dealers are honoring the previous summer delivery contracts but they are warning it will be expensive this winner.
Every one is joyful that the price of gasoline is down, slightly. The ripple effects from diesel have not been felt yet by consumers. There is a lot more inflation working it's way down the supply chain. Don't get comfortable.

 

[stefan73]

We'll see how this helps to dig the hole.

"An excise tax hike on household items that was buried in President Joe Biden’s $1 trillion infrastructure package last year went into effect on July 1, according to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS).

A roughly $13 billion tax increase on 42 chemicals, metallic elements and critical minerals was included in Biden’s Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. Common household items like rubber, soap, concrete, plastics, lightbulbs and electronics will be impacted."

"“The fake infrastructure bill was drafted to raise taxes on and kill jobs in Louisiana specifically,” Louisiana Sen. John Kennedy said last year upon introducing a bill with other Republicans to eliminate the Superfund taxes. “Its Superfund Tax will increase taxes on our petrochemical industry by $1.3 billion, and that’s going to endanger good jobs at a time when inflation is already ravaging Louisiana families.”"

MSN

 

[Hobo Hilton]

We'll see how this helps to dig the hole.

"An excise tax hike on household items that was buried in President Joe Biden’s $1 trillion infrastructure package last year went into effect on July 1, according to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS).

A roughly $13 billion tax increase on 42 chemicals, metallic elements and critical minerals was included in Biden’s Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. Common household items like rubber, soap, concrete, plastics, lightbulbs and electronics will be impacted."

MSN

Could explain the down turn in the stock prices of DOW, Clorox, Colgate-Palmolive, MYE and other's........ Taxing the manufacturer's so the consumer does not see it until it is passed on.... Makes it appear as inflation and not a tax.
"Who's your friend"???

 

[babyguppy]

Could explain the down turn in the stock prices of DOW, Clorox, Colgate-Palmolive, MYE and other's........ Taxing the manufacturer's so the consumer does not see it until it is passed on.... Makes it appear as inflation and not a tax.
"Who's your friend"???

I just now heard about it. Media did an amazing job keeping this one under raps.
Did anyone hear about it on FOX or other news sources or is the news article the first you are hearing about it as well?

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Levi Strauss reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that exceeded analyst estimates. Inflation is not calculated in.

Levi Strauss hikes dividend as second-quarter earnings exceed expectations

Levi Strauss second quarter earnings topped analyst estimates.

www.cnbc.com

 

[lariat]

Levi Strauss reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that exceeded analyst estimates. Inflation is not calculated in.

Levi Strauss hikes dividend as second-quarter earnings exceed expectations

Levi Strauss second quarter earnings topped analyst estimates.

www.cnbc.com

Inflation is calculated in. If sales are up 17% then given that real inflation is around 20% at a macro level this means that at a minimum sales remained steady, IF they raised their prices. If they didn’t or didn’t raise them a substantial percentage then a sales volume gain has occurred.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Inflation is calculated in. If sales are up 17% then given that real inflation is around 20% at a macro level this means that at a minimum sales remained steady, IF they raised their prices. If they didn’t or didn’t raise them a substantial percentage then a sales volume gain has occurred.

I see inflation calculated in when I go buy a pair of 517's.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

A recession is being re-defined.

Payrolls increased 372,000 in June, more than expected, as jobs market defies recession fears

Nonfarm payrolls were expected to increase by 250,000 in June, according to Dow Jones estimates.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

​	Warehouse retailer Costco sees 20% bump in sales for June

So, did Costco sell more products or did they sell the same amount of goods and just charge more for them ?
Smoke and mirrors

 

[babyguppy]

A recession is being re-defined.

Payrolls increased 372,000 in June, more than expected, as jobs market defies recession fears

Nonfarm payrolls were expected to increase by 250,000 in June, according to Dow Jones estimates.

www.cnbc.com

I always wait for the correction in the 'jobs created' report. Usually, for Democrats, they readjust down. If you are an R, they always undershoot and have to readjust higher.

 

[lariat]

I see inflation calculated in when I go buy a pair of 517's.

Sure. But you can't tell if that is the retailer or the manufacturer, or both, just that prices went up.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Sure. But you can't tell if that is the retailer or the manufacturer, or both, just that prices went up.

........... or if the "Government" has implemented a tax on the item or the manufacturer.
What I do know is The Buck Stops Here.... At my budget,

 

[stefan73]

........... or if the "Government" has implemented a tax on the item or the manufacturer.
What I do know is The Buck Stops Here.... At my budget,

Which just took effect (Biden tax) the first of this month.

 

[n2ishun]

I see inflation calculated in when I go buy a pair of 517's.

517's.
Solid choice.....since about 1972 when they stopped making real bush jeans and super bells.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

US will plunge into recession — but it didn't have to, former IMF chief economist says

It's "almost impossible" for the Fed to tamp down inflation without tipping the US economy into a recession, says Former IMF Chief Economist Ken Rogoff.

www.cnn.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Here is an attempt to down play the coming recession. Smoke and mirrors

Big payroll gains push recession fears into the corner — for now

June's big payroll jump helped clear away some of those recession clouds for a U.S. economy that nonetheless faces some stormy weather ahead.

www.cnbc.com

 

[KZP]

Here is an attempt to down play the coming recession. Smoke and mirrors

Big payroll gains push recession fears into the corner — for now

June's big payroll jump helped clear away some of those recession clouds for a U.S. economy that nonetheless faces some stormy weather ahead.

www.cnbc.com

Oh, like this?

 

[Texascbr]

Auto repossessions are trending upward.

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Auto repossessions are trending upward.

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Of course, just one more piece of the puzzle falling into place.
All the while the people that want your money (Stock Brokers, FED Reserve, US Government, Oil companies, Grocery stores, etc) are working over time to re-define the meaning of "RECESSION"..... Every day there is some mysterious indicator that is saying "we are close to a recession".

Like clock work, the recession started on 1/1/2022. Chart - S&P 500

 

[Hobo Hilton]

LOL
_____________
Titanic Ignorance
I’ve often cryptically joked that listening to investors, mainstream financial pundits or downstream politicians debating about near-term asset class direction, inflation “management” or central bank miracle solutions is like listening to First Class passengers on the Titanic debating about desert choices on the menu in their hands rather than the debt iceberg off their bow.

More Inflation & QE To Be Launched By Bankrupt West - King World News

Today one of the greats in the business warned King World News that more inflation and QE will be launched by bankrupt West.

kingworldnews.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Cathie Wood is warning​

“We think we are in a recession,” Wood says in a recent CNBC interview. “We think a big problem out there is inventories — the increase of which I’ve never seen this large in my career. I’ve been around for 45 years.”

‘We are in a recession’: Long-time bull Cathie Wood is warning investors about the ‘big problem’ in today's economy. Here’s 3 stocks she likes right now

The super investor still sees opportunities ahead.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[Bigfatcock]

Cathie Wood is warning​

“We think we are in a recession,” Wood says in a recent CNBC interview. “We think a big problem out there is inventories — the increase of which I’ve never seen this large in my career. I’ve been around for 45 years.”

‘We are in a recession’: Long-time bull Cathie Wood is warning investors about the ‘big problem’ in today's economy. Here’s 3 stocks she likes right now

The super investor still sees opportunities ahead.

finance.yahoo.com

Her fund is in a depression, lol.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Her fund is in a depression, lol.

Do you think the thought of a "recession" is starting to sink in ?

 

[babyguppy]

people quit going out for over a year due to covid. People learned how to do without restaurants and other 'service' industries. As the restriction was lifted, high gas prices and 15% plus inflation hits. We are in a free fall, and most people don't know it yet.
I personally don't know about or care about the Gov's market basket of goods that they use to determine their BS inflation rate.
I know the rate that I see is
eggs up over 100% increase at sams club
Gas over 100% from 2.00 to 5.47
McDonalds sausage McMuffin with egg, over 25% increase
Meat (sirloin's at sams) went from 4.99 to 7.99.
Now, with additional shopping awareness, you can find decent finds, but meat rose over 25% to 50% easily.
Just saying

 

[Bigfatcock]

“End of quote. Repeat the line.”

-joe biden

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The Tell: Worlds largest asset manager sees `no Goldilocks scenario ahead as central banks grapple with inflation and...

The research arm of BlackRock Inc., the worlds largest asset manager, is dashing any hope for a perfect economic outcome in the U.S. as more than two decades...

www.iqstock.news

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Just transitory

Homebuyers are canceling deals at the highest rate since the start of the pandemic

Higher mortgage rates and overall inflation are causing potential homebuyers to reconsider their purchases.

www.cnbc.com

 

[babyguppy]

because everyone couple out of college can afford a basic 500k dollar house payment.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Here is the script for the next several months:

"It is with deep regret that we needed to eliminate positions as part of our efforts to manage costs and ensure we position the company for long-term success," officials said. "Our team members play the most important role as we focus on keeping the dream of homeownership alive, and any decision made that impacts our team and culture is taken very seriously. We are committed to being transparent and respectful during this time and are offering resources to support these team members as they transition to the next phase of their careers."

Layoffs Begin at loanDepot, Continue At Mr. Cooper Group

The “headcount reductions” have begun at loanDepot, as an unknown number of employees have been let go, while a second round has taken place at Mr. Cooper Group, where 420 employees were laid off this week. Mr. Cooper officials said in a statement that the mortgage industry is facing an...

nationalmortgageprofessional.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Wells Fargo Laying Off Staff in Home Lending Unit

Like others in the mortgage industry, San Francisco-based Wells Fargo laid off workers in their home lending unit. In the latest documents filed with the Iowa State Department of Workforce Development, Wells Fargo said it will lay off 114 people in its offices around Des Moines. Between the most...

nationalmortgageprofessional.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Zillow Group Lays Off 55 In Texas

Zillow Group Inc. informed the state of Texas earlier this month that it will lay off a total of 55 workers at its facility in Coppell, Texas, as it winds down its Zillow Offers ibuying business. In a Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act notice filed with the Texas Workforce...

nationalmortgageprofessional.com

 

[lariat]

This is only going to pick up steam. The trade jobs will start to follow in the next few months.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

At that time of the C-suite shake-up, Peloton announced it was slashing roughly $800 million in annual costs. That included cutting 2,800 jobs, or about 20% of corporate positions. Peloton also said it would be walking away from plans to build a sprawling production facility in Ohio.

Peloton to outsource all manufacturing as part of its turnaround efforts

Instead, Peloton said it will expand its current relationship with Taiwanese manufacturer Rexon Industrial, in a bid to turn the money-losing business around.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Just about the general consensus:

Commodity prices from copper to wheat are collapsing - and that could flip global inflation into deflation, says SocGen​

"The long and the short of it is that US CPI food price inflation is set to collapse into deflation, just as it did in 2008/9," SocGen analysts wrote.

 

[Bigfatcock]

I heart deflation.