Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024

[devildog93]

Give it a few more months.

People aren't cutting back on tips even as inflation surges

Even as diners face higher menu prices, they're not cutting back on tips, according to a new report from Toast.

www.cnbc.com

I think people are cutting back. I don't think a set dollar amount on spending tells an accurate picture. People are spending at a certain level, but getting less and less. A fair amount of people living on pensions are just treading water, eating into their savings and running up cc debt.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Why don't the average food workers live in houses like our US Senators and Representatives ?
I would bet they work just as hard during the work week as the politicians.

Net worth of United States Senators and Representatives

Ballotpedia: The Encyclopedia of American Politics

ballotpedia.org

 

[Hobo Hilton]

FED Kashkari unveiled his plan today. Call it the "I Don't Know" plan. Along the same lines as the rest of the FED Governors. If they would go ahead and admit it is out of control and they can't deal with it........ At least that would be the truth... Worldwide.

_______________

Aug 18 (Reuters) - Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari on Thursday said the U.S. central bank needs to get "very very" high inflation down as soon as possible, even at the cost of possibly triggering a recession.
"We need to get inflation down urgently," Kashkari said at an event at the YPO Gold Twin Cities. "We need to get demand down" by raising interest rates. Economic fundamentals are strong, he said, but whether the Fed can lower inflation without sending the economy into a recession, he said, "I don't know."

Fed must get inflation down urgently, Kashkari says

Kitco News collects and features the top financial, economic and geopolitical news from around the world. Kitco's aggregated sources include some of the top newswires in the world including the Association Press, Canadian Press, Japanese Economic Newswire, and United Press International.

www.kitco.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Historically Applied makes this move as a recession takes hold... 1998, 2001, 2012 and now history repeats.

Applied Materials Plans to Reduce Costs, Slow Hiring​

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Now, "We the People" are accused of misreading the FED's minutes. I thought that's why minutes were public so we could think for ourselves.

The Fed is not getting cold feet about wrestling inflation to the ground, so stop misreading its minutes​

Opinion: The Fed is not getting cold feet about wrestling inflation to the ground, so stop misreading its minutes - Newest News Today

We bring you the newest news today and always on travel, technology, business health and well-being.

newestnewstoday.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Not a good trend for America. A government that is strangling business will lead to it's demise.

The economic output of the business sector fell 2.1 percent and hours worked increased 2.6 percent.

U.S. Labor Productivity Suffers Biggest Crash Ever Recorded, Labor Costs Soar Most Since 1982

The biggest decline in records that go back to 1948. | Economy

www.breitbart.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The Biden Administration, instead of selling our oil, should be stockpiling our strategic petroleum reserves as if they were preparing for battle: the reality is we are in the midst of an undeclared conflict. It pits the future of freedom and democracy against a regime that openly has every intention of confronting the United States in Asia and elsewhere.

America's Strategic Oil Reserves

The Biden administration in April sanctioned the sale of our nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve to the highest bidder. They have done so under the logic that putting more oil on the global market at a time when Russia has an energy stranglehold on

www.gatestoneinstitute.org

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Foot traffic fell an average of 2.7% at U.S. Walmart locations, which include 3,573 Supercenters and 370 discount stores, compared to the same time last year, according to Reuters. Competing discount grocer Aldi saw foot traffic rise 11.5%, while Dollar General saw a 4.1% increase in foot traffic, as their convenient locations made them preferable for consumers looking to save money on gas, Reuters reported.

Inflation, Gas Prices Make Even Walmart Too Expensive as Foot Traffic Nosedives - The Stream

Many Walmart shoppers who moved to more local budget options like dollar stores or Aldi when gas prices surged have not returned to Walmart, Reuters reported Thursday.

stream.org

 

[Lightning8]

Foot traffic fell an average of 2.7% at U.S. Walmart locations, which include 3,573 Supercenters and 370 discount stores, compared to the same time last year, according to Reuters. Competing discount grocer Aldi saw foot traffic rise 11.5%, while Dollar General saw a 4.1% increase in foot traffic, as their convenient locations made them preferable for consumers looking to save money on gas, Reuters reported.

Inflation, Gas Prices Make Even Walmart Too Expensive as Foot Traffic Nosedives - The Stream

Many Walmart shoppers who moved to more local budget options like dollar stores or Aldi when gas prices surged have not returned to Walmart, Reuters reported Thursday.

stream.org

We switched to Aldi from Kroger. Cheaper in every way. I don't need to pay for the Kroger in-store Starbucks, Bakery, Deli, Flower Stand and so forth. Also tired of all the "special" deals but need coupons, use the app, check yourself out.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Sip a glass of Koolaid as you read the propaganda. Then run down and do some grocery shopping.... LOL

Inflation peaking? 10 common consumer items where prices are falling

While overall inflation remains high, the prices of some common items are beginning to tick down.

www.cnbc.com

 

[NoDopes]

It's like saying... Hey! The tsunami came through at record height, but the water levels are now receding! Happy times ahead.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

It's like saying... Hey! The tsunami came through at record height, but the water levels are now receding! Happy times ahead.

"It could have been worse"............

 

[KZP]

 

[KZP]

 

[KZP]

I think this got posted earlier but I can't remember

Walmart cancels billions in orders to align inventory with plummeting consumer demand – NaturalNews.com

Retail giant Walmart Inc. said on Tuesday, August 16, that it canceled billions of dollars in orders as part of a continued effort to align inventory levels with projected demand as well as reduce exposure to products that do not align with its budget-conscious consumers. The company said its...

www.naturalnews.com

 

[lariat]

MSN

 

[Bigfatcock]

Wait until people have to start paying student loans.

I’ve been noticing some decent sales in the local marketplace. Picked up a really nice USA made Delta 8 inch jointer for cheap.

Going this weekend to look at a Northfield 16 inch jointer for a really good price.

I have been watching sales sections on numerous gun sites, and shit isn’t really moving unless you actually offer it at a decent price. Waiting to pick up a LE6920 for sub 1k. Also looking for a 300 WinMag.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Ford to eliminate 3,000 jobs in an effort to cut costs

Ford Motor is cutting about 3,000 jobs from its global workforce, a majority of which are in North America.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

50% of employers expect job cuts, survey finds. Here's how to prepare for a potential layoff

Many companies have announced layoffs in recent weeks, and executives expect more are coming. There are steps workers can take ahead of time.

www.cnbc.com

 

[KZP]

 

[KZP]

Cooling housing market: Idaho, Colorado, Utah sellers drop prices in July

Sellers across every major U.S. metro have dropped their asking prices in July as more buyers backed out of the market in part because of high mortgage rates.

www.foxbusiness.com

 

[KZP]

Joe Biden's America: 50% of Employers Expect Job Cuts in the Next 6 to 12 Months | The Gateway Pundit | by Cristina Laila

This is Joe Biden’s America.

www.thegatewaypundit.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Joe Biden's America: 50% of Employers Expect Job Cuts in the Next 6 to 12 Months | The Gateway Pundit | by Cristina Laila

This is Joe Biden’s America.

www.thegatewaypundit.com

America has a generation of young people who have never experienced job cuts, lay-off's, furlows, reduced hours, pay cuts, companies shutting the doors without notice, etc. I'm sure we will hear a lot of crying as this recession takes hold... In all fairness, there are some young people who live frugal, saved some money and got established in one of the, less glamorous, recession proof careers...
History repeating.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Intel is building what it claims is the “largest silicon manufacturing location on the planet” in Ohio, and it’s going to need 7,000 workers to construct it, according to a report from the Associated Press. However, a labor shortage affecting the construction industry could make it hard to recruit the workers it needs for the $20 billion job, and competition for workers could slow the pace of homebuilding in the area which is needed to support the growing workforce that Intel’s plant is supposed to attract.

Intel needs 7,000 workers to build its $20 billion chip plant in Ohio

Labor shortages could make workers hard to find.

www.theverge.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Jerome Powell has had many opportunities to reign in inflation and he has let those opportunities pass. This is what happens when the FED Chairman has become politicized. Jerome's plan is "Hope".
__________________
In a key week for US stocks, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has the opportunity to get market investors on the same page as the central bank's agenda to bring down inflation that will likely be at the cost of short-term economic growth, economist Mohamed El-Erian said Monday.

Powell has the chance to resolve the disconnect between the Fed and markets this week, and the US can avoid a downturn with the right policy moves, Mohamed El-Erian says

Powell "should shy away from what I call spurious precision," El-Erian told CNBC. Forward guidance has been "discredited under this Fed."

finance.yahoo.com

 

[KZP]

Homebuilder Index Turns Negative After 'Near Record' Plunge

In July I published a story on the "near record plunge" in homebuilder confidence. This index goes from 0 to 100. Anything above 50 means that homebuilders have a positive view of the direction that the housing market is headed in over the next six months. Anything below 50 means that they have

mikulawire.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The new plan is "Hope".

After a year-long dip, American consumer spending power will be back in 2023

Household cash flow has been declining, but consumer income will begin to grow after the holidays, making a recession less likely, according to Goldman Sachs.

www.cnbc.com

 

[NoDopes]

The new plan is "Hope".

After a year-long dip, American consumer spending power will be back in 2023

Household cash flow has been declining, but consumer income will begin to grow after the holidays, making a recession less likely, according to Goldman Sachs.

www.cnbc.com

So... over 50% of American companies are planning layoffs by end of year... and somehow this will lead to higher wages?

Anybody have the formula for that calculation?

 

[lariat]

So... over 50% of American companies are planning layoffs by end of year... and somehow this will lead to higher wages?

Anybody have the formula for that calculation?

This is what I have been saying all along. Those who have refused to go back to work are about to get a huge wake up call.

 

[Bigfatcock]

This is what I have been saying all along. Those who have refused to go back to work are about to get a huge wake up call.

How so? I mean, it’s not like not being at work will be a surprise to them.

 

[lariat]

How so? I mean, it’s not like not being at work will be a surprise to them.

OK, long answer, but here goes: what I am talking about is the refusal to work for a wage that is the market standard at the moment. The stay at home protest seems to be about to fail, barring some other stupid stimulus check scheme. Within the overall economy credit card balances are increasing with interest rates all over increasing, price inflation is eating further into savings, evictions are ramping up on both rentals and mortgages, vehicle and recreational vehicle repos are high and increasing, savings rates are declining, rents are increasing and the stay on student loans is sunsetting. These are all things that are being discussed frequently in the news. One is bad, but all of them together is a storm. Not taking a job when they were available MAY be the thing that bites a number of these types in the ass as those jobs they refused could have at least provided some income that they may not have been laid off from. If this goes the way I think it is, there will be serious competition for some of the jobs that they had previously turned their nose up at. Everyone who was looking could see this coming right about the time the stimulus checks were printed and the printing presses kept going like an M134 minigun. The numbers indicate the people are tapping into their savings more and more, and some of them are doing it because they are obstinate about what they envision that their skills are worth in the marketplace while the free market is indicating otherwise. I get it, but at some point we all have to bite the bullet to avoid killing our savings to make a personal point that no one really cares about but us. To be more blunt: no one cares if I want to stick to my ideas of a wage that supports my lifestyle and I end up starving in the process.

Sometimes we all have to do what is necessary, if only for a little while until something better comes along. This includes potentially having to work two jobs to make ends meet. Now the competition for jobs is going to increase, and a resume with a large blank in it has a higher chance of being turned down than one that has been active somewhere else and kept their skills sharp - unless they are willing to come on at a lower wage that reflects the use of rusty skills. This is the reality. I personally am not hiring anyone who has been playing xbox and eating Doritos for two years or even six months. I will, however, seriously consider a person who has been working at another job that they picked up to tide them over until they found a better job. It comes down to character and work ethic, and I'm betting here very soon the employers will have their pick of people. I have already had experienced workers coming from other competitors that are shutting down. What is interesting about that is that the other shops are losing work because there is no one to hire, so now the workers there are jumping ship before it goes down. This whole economy is about to bite us all in the ass, the only question is how deeply. For those without jobs its going to bite many very hard as Murphy and Reality start to knock on the door about the time the savings run dry. For those that want to work and have been working I feel the future is brighter than for those who have chosen to sit on their butt.

Its not going to be the employer that blinks - they are beginning to lay people off, just as a few of us on here have been explaining for quite some time. The remaining employers will increasingly NOT have to raise wages, and may not be able to because of the stupidly high rate of increase of input costs. This whole thing is a natural outcome of raising rates and printing a shit-ton of money to support BS efforts in a consumer-lead economy where the savings rate is very low. Its a situation where the real financial exposure is not to investment risk, but one of lifestyle and maintenance/upkeep. This means that those who have chosen to not get jobs may very well be looking at stepping a few rungs down on the socioeconomic ladder, perhaps permanently. This is especially true of those who are heavily indebted but have low or no income to support the debt - c/c, mortgage, car, boat, etc.

Some have a different opinion than I do on the matter, but this is my experience with it so far.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

OK, long answer, but here goes: what I am talking about is the refusal to work for a wage that is the market standard at the moment. The stay at home protest seems to be about to fail, barring some other stupid stimulus check scheme. Within the overall economy credit card balances are increasing with interest rates all over increasing, price inflation is eating further into savings, evictions are ramping up on both rentals and mortgages, vehicle and recreational vehicle repos are high and increasing, savings rates are declining, rents are increasing and the stay on student loans is sunsetting. These are all things that are being discussed frequently in the news. One is bad, but all of them together is a storm. Not taking a job when they were available MAY be the thing that bites a number of these types in the ass as those jobs they refused could have at least provided some income that they may not have been laid off from. If this goes the way I think it is, there will be serious competition for some of the jobs that they had previously turned their nose up at. Everyone who was looking could see this coming right about the time the stimulus checks were printed and the printing presses kept going like an M134 minigun. The numbers indicate the people are tapping into their savings more and more, and some of them are doing it because they are obstinate about what they envision that their skills are worth in the marketplace while the free market is indicating otherwise. I get it, but at some point we all have to bite the bullet to avoid killing our savings to make a personal point that no one really cares about but us. To be more blunt: no one cares if I want to stick to my ideas of a wage that supports my lifestyle and I end up starving in the process.

Sometimes we all have to do what is necessary, if only for a little while until something better comes along. This includes potentially having to work two jobs to make ends meet. Now the competition for jobs is going to increase, and a resume with a large blank in it has a higher chance of being turned down than one that has been active somewhere else and kept their skills sharp - unless they are willing to come on at a lower wage that reflects the use of rusty skills. This is the reality. I personally am not hiring anyone who has been playing xbox and eating Doritos for two years or even six months. I will, however, seriously consider a person who has been working at another job that they picked up to tide them over until they found a better job. It comes down to character and work ethic, and I'm betting here very soon the employers will have their pick of people. I have already had experienced workers coming from other competitors that are shutting down. What is interesting about that is that the other shops are losing work because there is no one to hire, so now the workers there are jumping ship before it goes down. This whole economy is about to bite us all in the ass, the only question is how deeply. For those without jobs its going to bite many very hard as Murphy and Reality start to knock on the door about the time the savings run dry. For those that want to work and have been working I feel the future is brighter than for those who have chosen to sit on their butt.

Its not going to be the employer that blinks - they are beginning to lay people off, just as a few of us on here have been explaining for quite some time. The remaining employers will increasingly NOT have to raise wages, and may not be able to because of the stupidly high rate of increase of input costs. This whole thing is a natural outcome of raising rates and printing a shit-ton of money to support BS efforts in a consumer-lead economy where the savings rate is very low. Its a situation where the real financial exposure is not to investment risk, but one of lifestyle and maintenance/upkeep. This means that those who have chosen to not get jobs may very well be looking at stepping a few rungs down on the socioeconomic ladder, perhaps permanently. This is especially true of those who are heavily indebted but have low or no income to support the debt - c/c, mortgage, car, boat, etc.

Some have a different opinion than I do on the matter, but this is my experience with it so far.

I agree with you.

However the picture you have painted is the polar opposite of what the Democrats plan to do between now and the 2024 elections. If we could somehow meld their plan for the next 2 years with your forecast we would see 2 years of "muddling along".... The muddling will fall hardest on the working middle class. The 200 million people in America who are on the doll or drawing a Government check will not see anything different different in their lives. 73 million are under 18 years old... The rest are the 57 million people working in private industry (Service and Manufacturing)... In order to keep the employment numbers looking good, the Government is hiring workers...

Death by 1,000 cuts.

 

[KZP]

 

[lariat]

I agree with you.

However the picture you have painted is the polar opposite of what the Democrats plan to do between now and the 2024 elections. If we could somehow meld their plan for the next 2 years with your forecast we would see 2 years of "muddling along".... The muddling will fall hardest on the working middle class. The 200 million people in America who are on the doll or drawing a Government check will not see anything different different in their lives. 73 million are under 18 years old... The rest are the 57 million people working in private industry (Service and Manufacturing)... In order to keep the employment numbers looking good, the Government is hiring workers...

Death by 1,000 cuts.

I think the base plan of the Dems is to keep the printing presses going and give away free stuff to the unintelligent to get votes. This will only increase inflation and make things much worse. I’m not sure how you could get a worse strategy. We are endangering not only the economy but the entire country with this nonsense. Someone will surely come along and get elected that will show me how wrong I am on that assumption of not having a worse strategy for the economy.

 

[Bigfatcock]

Thank you for the well thought out responses.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I think the base plan of the Dems is to keep the printing presses going and give away free stuff to the unintelligent to get votes. This will only increase inflation and make things much worse. I’m not sure how you could get a worse strategy. We are endangering not only the economy but the entire country with this nonsense. Someone will surely come along and get elected that will show me how wrong I am on that assumption of not having a worse strategy for the economy.

I'm watching the other economies of the World. It is starting to feel like the FED Reserve / America is leading the other countries down the rabbit hole. Japan, somewhat, has their country under control. The UK, France and Germany are grasping at straws. China is running out of water and restarting their coal fired power plants. Russia has most of it's resources tied up fighting a war. America has drained the Strategic Oil Storage, sent it's weapons to Ukraine, allowed inflation to spiral out of control and has no real plan to get the country back on it's feet.

No one is coming to save us.

 

[KZP]

 

[devildog93]

Looks like the dominoes are starting to fall. Now for layoffs.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Looks like the dominoes are starting to fall. Now for layoffs.

The FED Reserve is doing everything in it's power to kick this can down the road and into 2023..... I'm not sure what difference it will make to "We the People".... Probably will make for good propaganda... A slew of top shelf people (CEO's, High Ranking Government Officials, R&D people and experts in every field) are retiring and distancing themselves from anything that can be linked to the coming crash. Seems their plan is to "Take the Money and run"....

Entergy Chairman and CEO Leo Denault announces plans to retire in 2023

/PRNewswire/ -- Entergy Corporation announced today that Leo P. Denault, chairman and chief executive officer, will retire in 2023 following 23 years of...

www.prnewswire.com

WPS Health Solutions President and CEO Mike Hamerlik to retire in 2023 | WPS Health Solutions

WPS Health Solutions President and CEO Mike Hamerlik to retire in 2023

www.wpshealthsolutions.com

https://www.bizjournals.com/buffalo/news/2022/08/11/frederick-to-retire-next-year-from-people-inc.html

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Of course, all of this data is nominal - not adjusted for inflation - so adjust your euphoria at the 'economic' strength accordingly.

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Between a rock and a hard place..........

US rents hit a record high for the 17th month in a row

By Anna Bahney, CNN Business

www.kten.com

 

[NoDopes]

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

The NBER defines a recession as a “significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.”

Fuzzy enough they can choose when it "starts" and when it "ends".

 

[Oldloser]

LNG exports to EU and Japan picking up.

 

[tomcatmv]

The Biden Administration, instead of selling our oil, should be stockpiling our strategic petroleum reserves as if they were preparing for battle: the reality is we are in the midst of an undeclared conflict. It pits the future of freedom and democracy against a regime that openly has every intention of confronting the United States in Asia and elsewhere.

America's Strategic Oil Reserves

The Biden administration in April sanctioned the sale of our nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve to the highest bidder. They have done so under the logic that putting more oil on the global market at a time when Russia has an energy stranglehold on

www.gatestoneinstitute.org

It's going to be a DARK winter for many. All according to plan.

 

[DarnYankeeUSMC]

I have recently started getting the credit card applications in the mail again. Several every week for about a month. I don't have any credit card debt except for business and that gets paid every month. I started thinking about when was the last time I received this much soliciting and it is right before the economy hits the skids.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I have recently started getting the credit card applications in the mail again. Several every week for about a month. I don't have any credit card debt except for business and that gets paid every month. I started thinking about when was the last time I received this much soliciting and it is right before the economy hits the skids.

Dark clouds on the horizon are a good indicator of the storm that will follow.
I count many dark clouds and more arriving daily.

 

[KZP]

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The Japanese are resilient...... I don't know much about the culture... I'd imagine the working, middle class Japanese people have a lot in common with the working, middle class Americans. Probably want to be left alone by the government.
I'm sure those that are still fighting WW2 may feel differently.