Japan still has that hourglass population pyramid. Only a matter of time before that breaks the economy along with their version of the Fed printing yen.
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Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024
- Thread starter Hobo Hilton
- Start date
Japan still has that hourglass population pyramid. Only a matter of time before that breaks the economy along with their version of the Fed printing yen.
Horrific Biden Consequence, 20 Million American Households Behind on Electricity Bills, Pending Shutoff - The Last Refuge
Long-term CTH readers might remember in 2014 when President Obama claimed U.S. families had been paying too little for electricity for too long. As soon as Joe Biden took office, he began implementing the Green New Deal energy policy that, (a) directly forces higher costs for energy; and (b) is...
theconservativetreehouse.com
Guess who they will cut first.....
50% of employers expect job cuts, survey finds. Here's how to prepare for a potential layoff
Many companies have announced layoffs in recent weeks, and executives expect more are coming. There are steps workers can take ahead of time.www.cnbc.com
Long Covid is keeping as many as 4 million Americans out of work
The pandemic continues to cast a shadow over the workforce. Long Covid, a combination of symptoms that emerge months or even years after recovering from the virus, is keeping up to 4 million Americans from working, according to a new study.
Jerome has been lying for the past 2 years. Why stop now. He has a captivated audience.
www.marketwatch.com
Dow, S&P 500 book best day in 2 weeks ahead of Powell speech at Jackson Hole
U.S. stocks finished higher on Thursday, with the main benchmarks scoring back-to-back gains ahead of Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday.
www.marketwatch.com
GDP shrank at revised 0.6% rate in second quarter, signaling US remains in technical recession
The Commerce Department said in its second reading of second-quarter GDP data on Thursday that the economy shrank less than was initially reported in the spring.
www.foxbusiness.com
The recession is being felt.
Gap Inc. on Thursday withdrew its financial outlook for the year after it swung to a net loss in the fiscal second quarter and its Old Navy chain continued to struggle with the wrong mix of sizes and styles.
Decades-high inflation is hurting lower-income consumers who are among the core customers for some of the company’s brands.
www.cnbc.com
Gap Inc. on Thursday withdrew its financial outlook for the year after it swung to a net loss in the fiscal second quarter and its Old Navy chain continued to struggle with the wrong mix of sizes and styles.
Decades-high inflation is hurting lower-income consumers who are among the core customers for some of the company’s brands.
Gap withdraws 2022 financial outlook as Old Navy sales fall in second quarter
Gap withdrew its financial outlook for the year after its second-quarter sales fell from a year ago and it works to fix its struggling business.
I guess, today we will hear Jerome Powell's plan on saving the American economy.
www.cnn.com
Don't pay too much attention to what Jerome Powell says today
The big event for investors on Friday is in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will speak about the economy at a gathering of central bankers.
Budget season started for us. This week I got our cost escalation factors across all our categories of inputs from the cost accountants.
They pulled all our bids from 2020 and then looked at actuals from this year to date. And looked at projected vs actual delivery schedules. Then walked me through it this week.
Reconciliation shows an AVERAGE inflation of 28% in just 18 months. Lead times increased from 45 days to 7 months.
We do not get paid until we deliver and this lead time greatly increases our carrying cost for labor and overhead.
Our non-labor inputs (COGS) have cost us an additional 22% over planned as a result. We had planned for a 10% increase.
There goes gross profit for most firms. Another year of this and gross margin will be gone, too.
Edit to add that we are a mid-sized business with 1000+ employees. So this is likely the same story across all sectors..
They pulled all our bids from 2020 and then looked at actuals from this year to date. And looked at projected vs actual delivery schedules. Then walked me through it this week.
Reconciliation shows an AVERAGE inflation of 28% in just 18 months. Lead times increased from 45 days to 7 months.
We do not get paid until we deliver and this lead time greatly increases our carrying cost for labor and overhead.
Our non-labor inputs (COGS) have cost us an additional 22% over planned as a result. We had planned for a 10% increase.
There goes gross profit for most firms. Another year of this and gross margin will be gone, too.
Edit to add that we are a mid-sized business with 1000+ employees. So this is likely the same story across all sectors..
Yeah, no one is talking about this. This will lead to economic collapse and mass starvation in the EU.
We have major longer term fixed price contracts for a number of things, but this kind of price increase will lead to declaration of Force Majeure here at home and partial collapse.
Your numbers are of sound facts.
Many businesses will begin to "take the money and run" if their numbers look like that. Close the doors.
With your break downs... Do you see improvement in any one sector ?
Hunger causes problems. Every politician will be blamed, especially since it could have been prevented.
Buy Now Pay Later
www.foxbusiness.com
Some back-to-school shoppers turn to BNPL to cover higher prices: TransUnion survey
Some shoppers who are facing increased costs for back-to-school items have increasingly begun using buy now, pay later (BNPL) as a solution, according to a recent TransUnion report.
www.foxbusiness.com
This is the same thing I am seeing. We arent getting out of this, we have to go through it. All businesses with poor profitability models are going to go out. Unemployment is going to go way up. Everyone strap in.
This could be how they attempt to force a digital currency. Big bankruptcy wave hits lenders, one bank does a bail in taking depositors money, everyone does a bank run, banks close withdrawing, government promises to back your funds if you switch to digital.
We are probably close enough by now, if not in the near future.
- According to the Pew Research Center in 2018, 95 percent of Americans have a mobile phone, while 77 percent have a smartphone. Back in 2011, this percentage was 35.
@Hobo Hilton Probably stating the obvious, but I'm thinking you will need to append the thread title to include 2023...and we won't just be in a recession...
This topic was started Feb 1, 2022
I had a few other comments before starting this one. I was watching inflation on, of all things, my chicken feed.
I have survived 3 - 4 bad recessions so I felt like the sailor heading into the storm... Been there, done that.
I did not know Jerome Powell had re-written his "frame work" to define inflation / recession. I expected the FED Reserve to move quick. Jerome sat on his hands.
Every time a domino falls, it is a reminder of previous recessions.
Propaganda kept saying "this one is different". Perhaps, but the end result will be very similar.
But, yes... This can is being kicked down the road towards 2023.
It seems like this is going to rapidly turn into a depression over winter with the energy markets going bonkers on top of everything else that took place since 2020. Maybe the USA energy won't be as bad, I don't have a good pulse on that yet, but other countries are in near apocalyptic circumstances.
It doesn't feel odd seeing low GDP countries turning into total chaos as governments run away from the people, as it's happened quite a few times in my generation. But thinking about "first world" countries doing this is weird, it's looking like it's only a matter of time as no governing body anywhere seems interested in abandoning the climate change lie to preserve stable energy which in turn keeps peace.
It doesn't feel odd seeing low GDP countries turning into total chaos as governments run away from the people, as it's happened quite a few times in my generation. But thinking about "first world" countries doing this is weird, it's looking like it's only a matter of time as no governing body anywhere seems interested in abandoning the climate change lie to preserve stable energy which in turn keeps peace.
At this point, I don't even know that "depression" covers the worst down-side scenario. With 5-10x increases in energy costs and the corresponding downstream impacts, we're potentially staring down a full-scale collapse the likes of which we haven't seen in the industrial era.
EDIT: I think it's widely understood, but we shouldn't let the gross misallocation of capital go unmentioned as a root cause of both the upcoming events and our inability to recover. Just in the US, we blew a few trillion on an unproductive war, several trillion on useless consumer purchases, trillions on worthless education, whatever's been wrapped up in the fiscalization of everything, etc.
EDIT: I think it's widely understood, but we shouldn't let the gross misallocation of capital go unmentioned as a root cause of both the upcoming events and our inability to recover. Just in the US, we blew a few trillion on an unproductive war, several trillion on useless consumer purchases, trillions on worthless education, whatever's been wrapped up in the fiscalization of everything, etc.
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We all knew the world would fall apart with Joe and the ho. Just never knew it would be this fast. At this point I hope everyone has bought the things they need, and are ready to weather the storm. It's going to be a doozy.
Putin!!
It would be nice to see CNN covering a mob raiding Nancy's $5000 freezer and eating her $25/pint ice cream
I don't think that narrative will be acceptable to the hungry though.
It would be nice to see CNN covering a mob raiding Nancy's $5000 freezer and eating her $25/pint ice cream
The current administration is the catalyst, but the foundation for this collapse has been laid for my entire lifetime. It probably started with the formation of the Fed. Events of the past 25 years have ensured that this was going to be the endgame, and our chance to avoid this fate probably passed with one of Ron Paul's presidential runs. If one assumes that catastrophe could have been avoided as late as 2008 or 2012, then Obama voters and McCain voters and Romney voters should go punch themselves in the throat. I don't know that things could have been saved at that point; too much debt was created and too much liberty was lost in the Bush era.
Everyone should be able to look in the mirror and accept that they are partially to blame, but once everyone is to blame, then no one is to blame, and so this becomes a bit of a pointless exercise.
They are buying up candles to provide light ......... For sure there will be more house fires due to people trying to stay warm with alternate heating processes.... Coal imports are a record levels. They are trying to bring some old coal fired generating stations back on line.... Rust and corrosion in piping systems and corrosion in transmission lines, transformers and out dated turbines will take years to correct. Most of th old coal fired were taken off line before computers automated the processes.... What a nightmare.
Germany to reactivate coal power plants as Russia curbs gas flow
Parliament approves measures to use mothballed sites to produce electricity and preserve gas supplies
www.theguardian.com
Germany reactivates coal-fired power plant to save gas – DW – 08/22/2022
Germany plans to phase out coal-fired power generation by 2038, but now a second plant will be back in service next week under a new regulation aimed at saving gas.
www.dw.com
No refundsThey are buying up candles to provide light ......... For sure there will be more house fires due to people trying to stay warm with alternate heating processes.... Coal imports are a record levels. They are trying to bring some old coal fired generating stations back on line.... Rust and corrosion in piping systems and corrosion in transmission lines, transformers and out dated turbines will take years to correct. Most of th old coal fired were taken off line before computers automated the processes.... What a nightmare.
Germany to reactivate coal power plants as Russia curbs gas flow
Parliament approves measures to use mothballed sites to produce electricity and preserve gas suppliesGermany reactivates coal-fired power plant to save gas – DW – 08/22/2022
Germany plans to phase out coal-fired power generation by 2038, but now a second plant will be back in service next week under a new regulation aimed at saving gas.
Once those lights go out the crime will skyrocket. No lights, no cameras, no evidence. Then it will get interesting.They are buying up candles to provide light ......... For sure there will be more house fires due to people trying to stay warm with alternate heating processes.... Coal imports are a record levels. They are trying to bring some old coal fired generating stations back on line.... Rust and corrosion in piping systems and corrosion in transmission lines, transformers and out dated turbines will take years to correct. Most of th old coal fired were taken off line before computers automated the processes.... What a nightmare.
Germany to reactivate coal power plants as Russia curbs gas flow
Parliament approves measures to use mothballed sites to produce electricity and preserve gas suppliesGermany reactivates coal-fired power plant to save gas – DW – 08/22/2022
Germany plans to phase out coal-fired power generation by 2038, but now a second plant will be back in service next week under a new regulation aimed at saving gas.
I’m wondering if the plan they have is like some countries in Africa where a city will have rolling blackouts throughout the night. Everyone has candles and just keeps going through the “load shed”. But they don’t have snow and temps low enough to kill.
USA prices for heating oil and natural gas. Not yet terrible if you account for inflation compared to past prices. But I don't know the difference in demand compared to the past. If demand is say 400% higher compared to early 2000's then I'd guess prices will run up way higher & faster.
Heading into many "supply and demand" scenarios, worldwide.... Big changes since 12 months ago.
America must hold onto it's resources....... The US can't, once again, attempt to save the world... For the past 50 years that plan has failed, miserably. Europe will pay a premium for our oil, gas and LNG. If we sell out then American's will be paying for their heating on the international "spot market".....
An old saying "If you think you are going to come out on the other side collect gold"... That is where America is right now. If we think our country is going to survive then we must stock pile our resources. If we want to throw in the towel then drain the Strategic Oil Storage, allow our infrastructure to crumble, our USD to fail and roll over to China...... Both choices will have a difficulty factor.
If America is going to survive, it needs to quickly reallocate resources. Fewer $80k half-ton trucks with power running boards and 4200 sq ft houses for a family of four, no more cheap trinkets imported from China to temporarily numb the pain of a meaningless existence, and a hell of a lot more investment in productive goods.
When every dollar being spent is done so with the consideration of how it will support and improve human life, then we'll get somewhere. But that's a long and painful way from where we stand today.
When every dollar being spent is done so with the consideration of how it will support and improve human life, then we'll get somewhere. But that's a long and painful way from where we stand today.
Your challenge is to outlive 2 million of your fellow American's........ Shall I explain ?
Heh, the first two million are easy. Probably the first 100 million are easy. Gets kinda tough after that, especially once there's a need for teamwork.
Your challenge is to outlive 3 million of your fellow American's........ Shall I explain ?
No worries...... At that point the "tribes" will form. Survival of the fittest. Will be interesting to see which tribe becomes "King of the Mountain"....... I'm betting the career politicians will have become an endangered species.
The plan is to trade cans of beans for poon tang. It won’t take long until rival gangs hear of my stash and attack. I’m planning to go out in a blaze of small arms fire and the haze of cigarette smoke.Propaganda
This doesn’t work at all. You need a cool final statement. Something for the ages. Maybe also be wearing some tactical crocs with camo knee high socks and a plate carrier, nothing else. When the roving hordes come at least then they will know you lived your poon dream and went out ready to trade for the next can of beans. And burn the remaining cigarettes as a last action of defiance.
But at least a bunch of people were able to go deeper in debt to buy assets with little or no ROI.
EDIT: typo
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<—-Screams “ DEM’ HO’s” while firing one handed and making a dick helicopter.
They are "gettin' it while they can".......... Run CNC tools, food processing machines, etc. Doubtful it is just the light's running it up... May be charging all those EV batteries, just in case. Similar to filling the bath tub prior to a hurricane.Prices rising so fast the chart line is about to bend backwards.
I looked up that symbol, chart is futures pricing for energy in January 2023. Unless Germany ends the "war" and makes good with Russia, they are toast. I guess that makes sense, was seeing tweets saying some of German parliament is trying to back out of supporting Ukraine. They are smart enough to see they need to get back on that Russian energy pipeline.
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