Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024
- Thread starter Hobo Hilton
- Start date
This is what they get for fucking around with an entity with practically nothing to lose. For the most part, Russia seems to be a hell of a lot more self sufficient than most other countries who have their economies heavily dependent on each other. For many years, the rest of the world has done their best to shun and isolate Russia from the world economy. Russia is now reaping the rewards of being forced to learn to be self sufficient. Trump was on his way to making this country self sufficient as well. The globalist tinkerers can't stand any country that can successfully stand alone without them.
China will replace Europe as a trading partner with Russia........ Nothing to see here, move along.... History repeating itself...
American's need to focus on their own "Homeland" and let the rest of the world work it out..... America can not "Save the World"...
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I guess it's time to "redefine" snowbirds...
Snowbird = Lives 6 months above the 48th degree North parallel and lives the remaining 6 months below the 32nd degree North parallel.
Creating a new era of Nomad's....
Latest news from around the world! - The loudest and most important headlines from around the world!
The loudest and most important headlines from around the world!
detv.us
“Due to an unprecedented and record-breaking increase in natural gas prices in Europe, ANWIL has decided to temporarily suspend the production of nitrogenous fertilizers. The company is constantly monitoring the situation on the commodity market. As soon as macroeconomic conditions on the gas market stabilize, production will resume.”
No refundsLatest news from around the world! - The loudest and most important headlines from around the world!
The loudest and most important headlines from around the world!
“Due to an unprecedented and record-breaking increase in natural gas prices in Europe, ANWIL has decided to temporarily suspend the production of nitrogenous fertilizers. The company is constantly monitoring the situation on the commodity market. As soon as macroeconomic conditions on the gas market stabilize, production will resume.”
Dollar value against other big currencies is increasing, showing that other countries are even more busted than we are. Dollars are in demand.
- Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight
- Japanese yen (JPY) 13.6% weight
- Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight
- Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight
- Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight
- Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight
The rent crisis on Main Street just took a turn for the worse
The percentage of small business owners who said they could not make rent in August hit a record level for 2022, and hasn't been this high since peak Covid.
You have described an annual inflation rate of 25% for small business rent....... Pretty much in line with the budget of the average American.The rent crisis on Main Street just took a turn for the worse
The percentage of small business owners who said they could not make rent in August hit a record level for 2022, and hasn't been this high since peak Covid.www.cnbc.com
I've been using 2008 as reference point over the past 18-24 months, and everyone likes to respond with "no, this time, it's different". Well, at this point, they're now correct - it's different, and probably much worse.
I agree. It will be much worse this time.
The number of Wall Street types that took to jumping off of buildings in 08 will be crazy this time. The federal government was only 8 trillion in debt back then and printed about 5 trillion to keep the system going. At 31 trillion now will they print 8 or 9 more to keep it going?
Zimbabwe dollars!!
We should all use the next 2 months to make sure we have enough food to get through till spring and a way to keep our home warm.
No one is coming.
No one is coming.
I think it will depend on what region a person resides in. Aside from all of the man made challenges... Mother Nature can be a bitch.
The Gulf Coast area is heading into hurricane season and a "one two punch" in one area takes months to get services back to normal during a good year. The West is running out of water. A few severe snow storms without means to clear the roads could leave some areas cut off for longer periods. Without fuel it could be a severe winter....
Also toss in the mrna shot death wave that appears to be increasing. People in important logistical places can now drop dead at the worst time. A storm of troubles is building up.
Not 100% sure of timing, but based on energy cost , government restrictions and fertilizer production cuts, we are going to see a global famine of some degree in near future. Maybe end of 2023 its bad? Need more farmer input. But so far it appears inescapable as cutbacks continue.
Try to keep a two year supply of high calorie foods if you dont want to spend your time waiting in lines or emptying your savings.
If there is anything that would start a war with the states vs fed, seizing food production for redistribution is way up there.
People in left wing cities are already looting for useless luxury items, how much more will they for necessary items. I wager standard grocery stores close in areas. Semi truck hijacking, home break ins, will be ugly.
Kinda off topic:
The Grocery store(s) that I shop at for perishable stuff all removed their shopping baskets here a month ago.....you had to use a cart or carry any items in yer arms which particularly annoys me since my typical shopping trip is like 5 items tops mostly being stuff like Half and Half, Whisky, coffee, etc. All our staples like beans, rice, meat, veggies etc. are being rotated out of our storage and replaced by buying off of Amazon.
Anyway, I asked about the baskets and was told that people are stealing them blind - the MO: They use a shopping basket, line the bottom with stuff like frozen steaks, and then put $20 worth of items on top, go to the Self Checkout and scan the items on top and replace them over the high ticket items and then walk out of the store with a basket with $250 worth of meat. So they started stopping people at the exit with baskets and it came to fists a couple times because the folks stealing weren't gonna be caught and the 99% who weren't stealing resented being stopped and asked to show our receipt and have our basket pawed thru.
Like many of the things I thought I'd see in my Retirement, I didn't see this coming. Never saw this coming - prepared for it but never thought I'd actually see people duking it at the grocery store over food availability and prices.
VooDoo
The Grocery store(s) that I shop at for perishable stuff all removed their shopping baskets here a month ago.....you had to use a cart or carry any items in yer arms which particularly annoys me since my typical shopping trip is like 5 items tops mostly being stuff like Half and Half, Whisky, coffee, etc. All our staples like beans, rice, meat, veggies etc. are being rotated out of our storage and replaced by buying off of Amazon.
Anyway, I asked about the baskets and was told that people are stealing them blind - the MO: They use a shopping basket, line the bottom with stuff like frozen steaks, and then put $20 worth of items on top, go to the Self Checkout and scan the items on top and replace them over the high ticket items and then walk out of the store with a basket with $250 worth of meat. So they started stopping people at the exit with baskets and it came to fists a couple times because the folks stealing weren't gonna be caught and the 99% who weren't stealing resented being stopped and asked to show our receipt and have our basket pawed thru.
Like many of the things I thought I'd see in my Retirement, I didn't see this coming. Never saw this coming - prepared for it but never thought I'd actually see people duking it at the grocery store over food availability and prices.
VooDoo
This is the businesses fault for moving to almost all "self-checkout lanes" to save a few dollars on wages for checkout staff.
The theft on this has likely always been fairly high, I doubt the wage savings offsets it.
In Texas, a business can not demand to see your receipt or your bags as you're leaving. It's now "personal property".
CostCo/Sams can have a policy to make you check, but if you refuse, the most they can do is cancel your membership.
Technically, if they try to detain you... illegally, Texas allows defense of that action with deadly force.
To add some nuance to my doom, I think the biggest shift in my thinking is that we are no longer headed directly to a deflationary collapse a la 2009-'11. We may eventually (certainly?) get to that point since debt destruction is inherently deflationary, but in the near term, the odds of a hyperinflationary period have dramatically increased. I don't know that this is like, 50-75% or anything, but it was something close to zero and now it's most certainly larger.
Europe will likely try to print their way out of the current mess. It won't work, but it's about the only option they have. That means the US will need to follow, since a strong dollar sounds good in sound bites but creates unacceptable problems for both trade and banking systems (the latter being more important than the former for the Fed). So we'll print as well. I don't know how this will play out politically, but I don't know that it matters since everyone is still going to vote for their side anyways.
This probably creates some investment opportunities in securities for those that can front-run the trend - get in early, take profits early, roll those nominal gains into physical goods or whatever you think will take you through what's yet to come.
Along those lines....... One reason we are seeing so many "stock buy backs".... The upper eschelon of these major corporations would rather sink their money and their future in something they have control over. They are becoming the captain of their own ship as the world sails into the storm....
Betcha money that those countries with the highest debt jump on the state-created crypto bus first. Something about dissolution of government debt via conversion comes to mind.
Yes sir. The writing is already on the wall. Reduced farm output through increased input costs and drought, legislation against meat trying to make its way through (taxes on cows), monetary inflation for no real reason, increasing interest rates, credit cards maxed out, gas prices still high, supply chain still stuck, and many people still not working, money being sent to Ukraine and other places that will increase the tax burden on the citizens, etc.
The storm is on the horizon.
Let me get this correct.........
Fertilizer is selling at record prices ... The company that makes said fertilizer is cutting production... because of RECORD prices?
WhoTF is running that operation.. Company should be increasing production to take advantage of higher pricing..
Cutting PROD is just contributing to the fk'n mess.
From what I've seen some are cutting due to record high energy/material cost to make fertilizer. It's becoming unmarketable at super price levels. Farmers won't buy it anymore.
WEATHER WARS: China Faces a Serious Water Catastrophe That Will Cause GLOBAL Shortages of Food, Industrial Materials and Consume
Multi-year drought conditions in much of China have reportedly forced the country to the brink of collapse. Should the expected water
noqreport.com
What you about to see is not only a reduction in fertilizer but a reduction in farmers. No fertilizer, no yields, no profit. Therefore, no farmers and regional starvation. Think Ethiopia. This will be the fate of most third world countries. Believe me when I tell you eating bugs will not be enough for them. First world countries will be driven to exceedingly hard times.
No matter how much we advance technologically we are still an agrarian species. Our source of food is becoming reduced worldwide. This will mean big war, not just regional conflicts. We are looking at a population decrease, and almost certain famine in certain areas of the globe.
IMO, big money buying farmland is only going to increase from here and food selection is going to decrease. If for no other reason that it has to in order to keep up production and profitability for those big farms. Efficiency of quantity output, not selection is what drives profitability. I will not be surprised to see legislation attempted again that will make rainwater collection and small scale farming highly taxed to keep competition out and food production in mainly corporate hands. And the corporations will then decide what we eat.
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They don't want to end up like the Target stores in America and have shelves full of items shoppers are not buying..... Having warehouses full of fertilizer that farmers won't buy it is just as bad........ Inventories of everything are being wound down... Worldwide.
Stock up on necessities.
I drove past some hay fields today that had the big round balers at work. I've watched that one field for the past 5 years. It usually has 50 big round bales when they are done. It only had about 25 bales today.
But, on the other hand, I was watching traffic on a main 4 lane highway as I was loading firewood. Commercial trucks going in both directions... Hauling building supplies, ready mix concrete, new big farm tractors, prefab roof trusses, water well drilling rigs and casing....
Big money is being spent hurriedly either to beat winter or the financial collapse.... IDK
Any guesses on their plan?
EU diplomats said the exact makeup of an intervention plan is still being developed, but the Commission could offer a detailed plan as soon as this week.
EU plans to intervene in energy markets to stop surging power prices
"We have to develop an instrument which makes sure that the gas price no longer dominates the electricity price," von der Leyen said, according to Bloomberg.EU diplomats said the exact makeup of an intervention plan is still being developed, but the Commission could offer a detailed plan as soon as this week.
"gas price no longer dominates the electricity price"
LOL... so, sounds like some serious subsidies will be kicking in.
So, if it takes 10 bucks of gas to make 10KW of electricity (keeping it easy for math); wtf are they going to sell it for; and whose going to pay for the cost difference? tax payers?
I'd imagine their plan is similar to Jerome Powell's......... "HOPE".
Hope there is a Black Swan event that will make the inflation seem minor... Invasion by Aliens, Lucifer's Hammer comet, Nuclear war, etc.
UFOs have landed in Congress, where legislation addressing them will be considered
Buried inside the Senate Intelligence authorization bill lies a sentence indicating that Congress is taking threats of UAP's/UFO's more seriously than ever.
www.foxnews.com
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Fed rate hikes won't bring down inflation as long as government spending stays high, paper says
A paper released at the same Jackson Hole, Wyoming, summit where Fed Chair Powell spoke suggests that the central bank can't do the job itself.
www.cnbc.com
No shit. Some members here could have written that paper in two paragraphs.Fed rate hikes won't bring down inflation as long as government spending stays high, paper says
A paper released at the same Jackson Hole, Wyoming, summit where Fed Chair Powell spoke suggests that the central bank can't do the job itself.
More socialism. Mandates on how much a person or business can use a day, community shelters for the winter. This is added to what E. Bryant stated. Both will have to be implemented. Winter is coming too fast to address it any other way.
Fiscal policy won't fix what monetary policy created. Had sound fiscal policy been employed in the past, we wouldn't have needed the monetary games of the past 20 years, but we're about $25 trillion past those cows leaving the barn.
I will say that completely cutting the current annual deficit - which is more of an abstract concept than a concrete number, but let's call it $2 trillion - would be an instant 10% wack to GDP, and that doesn't include the domino effects of everything that would immediately collapse. So this probably would cause some of the debt destruction required to initiate deflation. But not even the most hawkish Republican would have the balls to even publicly discuss such a concept. I've never even heard a Republican call out Trump for his Obama-sized deficits.
File this under "my generation is too young to remember the stupidity of the 1970s, and everyone will suffer as a result".
Yup. I think it would probably be best if everyone could come to grips with the truth - spending cannot be stopped now. Any stoppage in it will result in a very steep recession and possibly a depression with deflation at the helm. There is no way in hell the Wall Street handlers are going to allow this. So that means we will expand this bubble until it pops. There simply is no other way out of this mess. Nobody is going to stop spending, there are no fiscal conservatives any longer, and the amount is so large at this point there isnt any practical reason left to be - it cannot be paid off. Your children will not live in the late 20th century United States.
This is the reality. And it sucks. But the sooner it is acknowledged and addressed personally the better off we might be. Might.
This is the reality. And it sucks. But the sooner it is acknowledged and addressed personally the better off we might be. Might.
Since I am prognosticating, I'll be even more clear: we have been focusing on the wrong battle for over 40 years. We all thought the communists were going to kill us. What we found instead is that there are forces that have chosen to destroy the country through fiscal means. We didn't catch it in time in great enough numbers to stop it. Barring some huge crypto conversion magic the backside of debt servicing is coming. Raising interest rates is going to seriously screw over repayments. This has come in with the socialist agenda which created the mental weakening of our nation through the softness of materialism and the slavery of debt - the soft chains of fear of losing one's lifestyle.
What we will see when all of this goes down is a consolidation of businesses, industries and output. Oligarchies that will have enough power to do exactly what Gates, Blackrock and others are doing - imbedding themselves into the politics of a country and preserving their abilities to co-lead the countries for decades if not more. They will be the only ones with the resources to withstand what's coming and they will use that to gain power over the politicians and thus the markets, which in turn means power over the citizens. This isn't hyperbole; its a natural result of allowing one's country to fuck itself financially. People with bad intent are always ready to grab the reins of power and keep them for as long as possible.
The biggest asset we gave over is our wisdom. We will only get it back through the pain of financial calamity.
What we will see when all of this goes down is a consolidation of businesses, industries and output. Oligarchies that will have enough power to do exactly what Gates, Blackrock and others are doing - imbedding themselves into the politics of a country and preserving their abilities to co-lead the countries for decades if not more. They will be the only ones with the resources to withstand what's coming and they will use that to gain power over the politicians and thus the markets, which in turn means power over the citizens. This isn't hyperbole; its a natural result of allowing one's country to fuck itself financially. People with bad intent are always ready to grab the reins of power and keep them for as long as possible.
The biggest asset we gave over is our wisdom. We will only get it back through the pain of financial calamity.
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