Looking at increases in gas, food, and housing, we may just skip recession and roll into a depression.
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Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024
- Thread starter Hobo Hilton
- Start date
That's what I'm thinking too. I'm currently extremely busy and completely full for the year to build custom houses. Of course due to the nature of it, my actual current work load is more of a reflection of the previous year , not the current one. We are paying off everything and preparing for next year to be bad. However, it's complicated by the super high demand in the South East particularly, as many move from NE and NW regions of the country, adding to an already majorly undersupplied market. Not sure how this will work out, but I think I'm going to hold off on buying the land I've been dying to buy this year.
True
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is trending rapidly towards 100
Propaganda has American's believing the world is running out of oil, which it's not.
Jerome Powell, FED Reserve eye's have glazed over
This administration flooded America with fiat money and now are attempting to flood the world.
Wheat (commodity) is up 70% for the past 12 months, up 13% over night
Basically we are already in a depression. Propaganda and denial are cushioning American's from the reality.
WheatCommodity
445.25+49.00+12.37%
War in Ukraine has sparked a scramble for dollars
The US dollar serves as the backbone of the global economy and is considered the safest currency to hold. So in times of uncertainty, investors like to stock up.
www.cnn.com
Oil Jumps Near $125 as Chance of Russian Ban Spurs Crisis Fears
(Bloomberg) -- Oil soared -- nearing $140 a barrel earlier -- as shock waves rippled through the market after the U.S. said it was considering a ban on Russian crude imports.Most Read from BloombergStakes Rise as Putin Says His War in Ukraine Will ContinueUkraine Update: U.S. May Go Alone on...
Wheat Surges Closer to Record as War Paralyzes Ukraine Supply
(Bloomberg) -- Wheat prices soared closer to record levels as Russia’s intensifying war in Ukraine cuts off supplies from one of the world’s leading breadbaskets. Most Read from BloombergStakes Rise as Putin Says His War in Ukraine Will ContinueUkraine Update: U.S. May Go Alone on Russia Oil...
You have a good feel for what is developing.
For validation, look at the past 18 - 24 months in which mega corporations gathered up all of the loose / free money and bought back their stock. Very little was spent on payroll or modernization of facilities. Financially they armor plated their operation. Visualize a turtle when some kid is throwing rocks at it.
It's an interesting mental exercise to imagine what 2008 might have turned into if the Fed hasn't been able to implement ZIRP + QE.
Meanwhile, I'm looking forward to watching Suburban prices drop and Civic prices increase.
Seems that's where American's are waking up this morning. Careful of the snakes.
Witnessed that Suburban / Civic swap during previous depressions. About a 12 month cycle.
I wonder how many people are getting their scooters out and getting them ready for the warm weather. Back in '08 there were tons of them running around and Smart cars. You could pick up diesel trucks for cheap and a dealership would not take one on trade.
I'm thinking this is going to make 08 look minor by comparison.
The 2008 bailout bill wasn’t even a trillion, lol.
A lot of factors present today that weren’t in 2008.
I’ve bought so many items in the last couple months that were “someday” purchases. As the power of my money shrinks, I want to use it now.
Are we fucked? Probably, but I’ll be looking for a low miles F-250 in the next 6 months to a year. If I owned a big truck, and gas was hurting me, I’d offload it now, because once it’s starts in earnest, you won’t be able to trade them in or sell them for more than $0.50 on the dollar.
Hah!
My cheap ass has been tooling around in a 2012 Toyota Yaris. The wife calls it the monowiper and the kids call it the roller skate.
Looks like I'll be laughing at the pump. With my hoodie up and sunglasses on, of course....
My cheap ass has been tooling around in a 2012 Toyota Yaris. The wife calls it the monowiper and the kids call it the roller skate.
Looks like I'll be laughing at the pump. With my hoodie up and sunglasses on, of course....
I’m out of the closet with the Camry. No shame in my game driving a kids car. Averaged 30 mpg city this morning.
About 4 years ago a friend gave me a non-running Cavalier while cleaning up his place. Spent $1,000 on tires,battery, brakes, starter, shocks, registration, insurance and all of the routine maintenance items. The beater is still going while two trucks stay parked unless needed... 4 rollin' wheels are better than 2 walkin' heels.
I’m probably at 40. Stick shift with roll up windows.
I’m in fifth gear by 40mph and rarely use the brakes on country roads. I don’t reach normal tread life on my tires but they are (were?) $60 a pop last time I had them changed. My total cost per mile driven has to be a record low.
3.60$ cheapest I saw this morning.
Taking grandchildren to school, there was rain, sleet, snow and sunshine. Not enough to wash the dirt off my 4x4 F-150.
It was still a fun drive cutting off and denying lanes etc. to people in thier little shitbox cars.
Taking grandchildren to school, there was rain, sleet, snow and sunshine. Not enough to wash the dirt off my 4x4 F-150.
It was still a fun drive cutting off and denying lanes etc. to people in thier little shitbox cars.
Land prices are way up. When shit hits, I can buy it much cheaper. I will so be borrowing about half of the cost to get the amount of land that I want. I'm scared to get any long term debt with the current outlook. I would be paying off my truck prior to buying the land though so it wouldn't be some huge amount but still.
Then there's the other side of situation, where it's probably a money making endeavor to buy land at a low rate given the inflation. Tough decision right now
That debt when shit crashes is going to cost you a whole lot more. Debt already costs more than it did 3 months ago.
However, you bring up a good point that it maybe cheaper if we have a recession or depression, but people won’t be building houses then either.
The land will still be there long after the truck has turned to rust.
Just my opinion.
That's true people won't be building as much but about half my clients don't borrow money at all to build. They have the cash so, some of those type of folks will be doing something, but yes, that's definitely on my mind. If the shit hits, then I won't have to borrow near as much for the same amount of land so though. Another factor is taxes.
I can do a 1031 exchange with the land and a rental property that I'm selling, BUT, tax rates are going up not down, so I'm thinking I'd be best served to take the cap gains hit now and have the cash to use once things go south. Of course I wouldn't leave it all in cash but I'd keep it fairly liquid.
I think when things get real tight, rural real estate and vacant land will drop in price as those who moved out of the big city during COVID, are going find that the price of fuel, heating, food, etc is going to outpace what they feel comfortable paying.
I agree. I guarantee all those people who moved into rural neighborhoods because of telework, will be offloading their property when forced back to the office by the big corps. And fed gov. Evil.
The 1031 is more of an estate planning tool assuming stepped up basis will still be around when you punch out.
If you’re not looking to build multigenerational wealth it’s probably not the best idea. If and when you decide to cash out, you’re going to pay a massive tax bill. Depending on your current bracket, there might be benefit in regards to the time value of money, but otherwise you’re not likely saving anything with that approach… just kicking the can down the road.
If you’re in the 12% bracket now and the 32% when you cash out, you’re screwed as depreciation recapture goes up to 25%.
Real estate is weird. Play your cards right and it’s the best thing going. Play them wrong and you get bent over when it comes to taxes.
I really hate taxes. Every year I write a fat ass check to uncle sugar and ask myself “Did I get xxxx amount of value for what I’m paying?”. The answer has always been no.
My situation is a little more complex than that but I won't go all into it. That's what I meant by "taking the hit now vs later" and taxes being cheaper now than down the road. I have a plan which will offset some of the down the road liability if I did it that way but I likely won't at this point and will just take the hit now but it's not uncommon to do that and then take the hit when you have a bad year for example or can show less income and such.
True
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is trending rapidly towards 100
Propaganda has American's believing the world is running out of oil, which it's not.
Jerome Powell, FED Reserve eye's have glazed over
This administration flooded America with fiat money and now are attempting to flood the world.
Wheat (commodity) is up 70% for the past 12 months, up 13% over night
Basically we are already in a depression. Propaganda and denial are cushioning American's from the reality.
WheatCommodity
445.25+49.00+12.37%
War in Ukraine has sparked a scramble for dollars
The US dollar serves as the backbone of the global economy and is considered the safest currency to hold. So in times of uncertainty, investors like to stock up.Oil Jumps Near $125 as Chance of Russian Ban Spurs Crisis Fears
(Bloomberg) -- Oil soared -- nearing $140 a barrel earlier -- as shock waves rippled through the market after the U.S. said it was considering a ban on Russian crude imports.Most Read from BloombergStakes Rise as Putin Says His War in Ukraine Will ContinueUkraine Update: U.S. May Go Alone on...ca.finance.yahoo.com
Wheat Surges Closer to Record as War Paralyzes Ukraine Supply
(Bloomberg) -- Wheat prices soared closer to record levels as Russia’s intensifying war in Ukraine cuts off supplies from one of the world’s leading breadbaskets. Most Read from BloombergStakes Rise as Putin Says His War in Ukraine Will ContinueUkraine Update: U.S. May Go Alone on Russia Oil...
I'll add another link to your post. China winter wheat crops in pretty bad shape adding to the problem.
China Agriculture Minister Says Winter Wheat Condition Could Be Worst in History
www.theepochtimes.com
Hell yeah. I had one of those too. A 96, also manual with roll up windows. Rear quarter glass was plexiglass and glued in with rtv caulk. Paint was worn off the hood to the primer.
I had to keep a nail in the cup holder to get it started.
I used to be able to leave it running outside of the corner store in the hood and nobody would even think about stealing it.
I actually miss it. It was the most stress free vehicle I’ve ever seen.
I miss being able to buy a drivable beater for a couple hundred bucks.
One of my favorite cars was a Pontiac 6000 that I bought for $250 that had 200k on it. Thing was mint, drove like a dream, and had ultra dark windows.
Stuck 2 12 inch subwoofers in the trunk, lol. Had a shitload of cassette tapes for that car.
One of my favorite cars was a Pontiac 6000 that I bought for $250 that had 200k on it. Thing was mint, drove like a dream, and had ultra dark windows.
Stuck 2 12 inch subwoofers in the trunk, lol. Had a shitload of cassette tapes for that car.
Ran across this on a blog. Seems accurate. I did not Fact check:
Unlike the West, China is prepared. It has been stocking up for months and holds 84 per cent of the world’s copper, 70 per cent of its corn and 51 per cent of its wheat. “China has bought enormous quantities of US soy in recent weeks,” said Rabobank. One might ask if Xi Jinping knew something in advance.
Unlike the West, China is prepared. It has been stocking up for months and holds 84 per cent of the world’s copper, 70 per cent of its corn and 51 per cent of its wheat. “China has bought enormous quantities of US soy in recent weeks,” said Rabobank. One might ask if Xi Jinping knew something in advance.
Well with the recession / depression that biden has caused I figure I will soon be able to buy varget and 8208.
The price is gas will be so high no one can drive anywhere to shoot.
When we had a real president (Trump) we were exporting oil. It did not take long for the communist biden administration to compleatly ruin that.
Thanks a lot joe you cocksucker.
The price is gas will be so high no one can drive anywhere to shoot.
When we had a real president (Trump) we were exporting oil. It did not take long for the communist biden administration to compleatly ruin that.
Thanks a lot joe you cocksucker.
When the depression arrives a pound of varget will buy you two women at the same time.
That's what I'm saving mine for.
Yep. I got through high school and college with a series of beaters like that. So did everyone else I knew. It'd suck to be in that same spot now - can't afford a beater, much less gas or insurance. No wonder kids don't bother getting a license
Those old A-body GMs were pretty tough. The C/G/H/K platform was even better - one of those cars with the 3.8L V6 will stop only when the rust eats it alive. They provide a few hundred thousand miles of a perfectly mediocre driving experience, peppered with various inexpensive repairs.
U.S. imports of foreign goods rose in January on higher vehicle and energy shipments ahead of the Russia-Ukraine crisis while exports fell, widening the trade deficit to a new record of $89.7 billion.
Debt
Klaus and crew are running a plan to get your schitt whether you owe on it or not.
Klaus and crew are running a plan to get your schitt whether you owe on it or not.
What scares me is how quickly people forget that.
Trump is not my perfect example of a president, have not seen one yet.
But even Obama did not damage the country in his entire term as badly as shit head joe in just a year.
Soon we will forget about any foreign wars as we will be able to look down our own streets turned to rubble.
Your neighbors orffaned cat will be a welcome meal.
But even Obama did not damage the country in his entire term as badly as shit head joe in just a year.
Soon we will forget about any foreign wars as we will be able to look down our own streets turned to rubble.
Your neighbors orffaned cat will be a welcome meal.
This right here is the plan. Has been all along. Paid 50 - 70K for your ride? Can afford the note and gas? Too bad. Repo man will come, maybe. Klaus wins because you were a fool and paid a stupid price to look cool. It's a hard thing to say and harder to accept, but for the majority of the people in the country didn't need a vehicle that costs that damned much, but went into debt for it for some unknown reason.
The "you" is a genral you. Unless you did this, then its fully directed at you.
70k+ for a commuter vehicle is retarded.
You can literally buy real estate for that. Just insane.
Why should people continue to play by the rules when the ship was scuttled on purpose?
I dunno. Honor, dignity? Self preservation in case it doesn’t turn out like you planned?
John Maynard Keynes said, “ the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent .” And in the age of digital transactions the banks WILL get their money back. But in the meantime those who spent money foolishly will suffer.
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Where is the honor and dignity in cowering when?
1) elections are rigged
2) you are left to be attacked by bio weapons and your own medical system turns on you to amplify the attack
3) your economy is blown out from under you
What does any of that have to do with buying an overpriced pussy wagon? Are you actually saying that not going into debt to buy a nonessential item is cowering? Are you serious or was that just a bad choice of words?
Are you saying you deserve to go into debt and not pay up because you are pissed life didn’t turn out the way you wanted?
Pussy wagon, house, whatever..
So everything going on around you right now is just normal "life" eh?
Financially surviving natural disasters are one thing, depressions another, but deliberate theft via subterfuge is A OK since the victim stuck their head in the noose. Got it.
Nope, there is no victim. Debt in this country, especially for non-essentials is a purely voluntary affair. So it is the borrowers fault, yes. We have had “caveat emptor” in this country for a long time. This includes debt, especially if you buy something when it is obviously being sold for more than it is functionally worth.
This. I first noticed it on luxury goods in 2020. I knew shit was fucked when you couldn’t get a Rolex or Randall due to demand. Then prices just sky rocketed. All of those luxury goods bought with enhanced unemployment, and child tax credits will hit the used market.
Idiots selling their home for 50% more than they paid, then renting for several months, and finally being forced to buy at market value.
Same for the idiots that got so much money selling their used vehicles, just to lose it all to buy a new vehicle. Dumb.
People are living on a shoestring again, but this time it is going to be much worse than the recession.
Suggest studying how big money has steered world events over centuries in it's favor to consolidate influence and power. No victims involved, right? < - Sarcasm
Eventually they are coming for what you think you own and not just what is owed. You're not winning anything playing on their chess board.
It should be obvious at this point, but apparently it isn't yet.
Eventually they are coming for what you think you own and not just what is owed. You're not winning anything playing on their chess board.
It should be obvious at this point, but apparently it isn't yet.
If you are living you are playing on the chessboard. We are all pawns. But if you are playing with debt (their money), then you are VERY SPECIFICALLY their own revenue earning (for them) pawn. I have gone into this in detail in the past and I can again if you want. The takeaway is that you aren’t living off of the chessboard by using thier money to live or fund your excesses - you are one of the biggest victims. The only person that will get screwed over is you. Indentured servitude never went away, you just agreed to it with a simple signature. No man that has debt is a free man.
Even though be I'm debt free, I'm still under the Thumb of big government.
Income tax
Property tax
Vehicle registration
Forced Insurance
Etc.
Income tax
Property tax
Vehicle registration
Forced Insurance
Etc.
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