I see inventory starting to build at car dealerships. Maybe in 2023 they will be selling at more reasonable prices when many of their buyers are avoiding the high interest rates.
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Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024
- Thread starter Hobo Hilton
- Start date
Central Banks Are Buying Gold At The Fastest Pace In 55 Years | OilPrice.com
Central banks globally have been accumulating gold reserves at a furious pace last seen 55 years ago when the U.S. dollar was still backed by gold
oilprice.com
Getting pretty obvious the "Financial Leaders" of the world are navigating uncharted waters....
Reaching the point of them saying "Well.... let's try this and see if it works".... Similar to a Doctor giving a barrage of test as his patient suffers a painful death. Worldwide..
Time to:
www.cnbc.com
Reaching the point of them saying "Well.... let's try this and see if it works".... Similar to a Doctor giving a barrage of test as his patient suffers a painful death. Worldwide..
Time to:
Bank of England raises its benchmark rate by 75 basis points, its biggest hike in 33 years
The 75 basis point increase takes the Bank Rate to 3%, its eighth consecutive hike to the main lending rate.
www.cnbc.com
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LONDON — The British pound on Thursday sank against the U.S. dollar after the U.K.’s central bank said it expected a recession to last for all of 2023 and the first half of 2024.
www.cnbc.com
British pound sinks 2% against the dollar after Bank of England recession warning
The British pound on Thursday sank against the U.S. dollar after the U.K.'s central bank said it expected a recession to last for all of 2023 and the first half of 2024.
Detecting a bit of panic in the voices of the worlds financial leaders.
The Federal Reserve remains set on beating inflation and could raise rates to an even higher-than-expected level, though it may reduce the size of its future rate hikes.
www.cnbc.com
The Federal Reserve remains set on beating inflation and could raise rates to an even higher-than-expected level, though it may reduce the size of its future rate hikes.
Fed rate hikes could go even further than expected as Powell commits to stomp out inflation
The Fed remains set on beating inflation and could raise rates to an even higher-than-expected level, though it may reduce the size of its hikes.
“We are expecting a much bigger recession than the markets are expecting,” said Jensen, adding stocks are likely to drop at least another 20%. “You might go way past that, but I think it would be about another 20% to get to equilibrium levels given where real interest rates are and where growth in earnings are likely to net out.”
www.marketwatch.com
Greg Jensen nailed inflation, the Ray Dalio leadership change, and won at poker. Inside his big year.
Greg Jensen has positioned the world's biggest hedge fund for more market mayhem ahead. He lands on the MarketWatch 50.
www.marketwatch.com
With the Fed rate increases, present and future, Europe's buying power will diminish and they will likely head into a severe recession. Combine that with energy shortages and Europe could have very rough. Meanwhile, we'll be revisiting 1981, with high interest rates, a real estate glut and high gas prices and possible energy shortages. 
A very short answer........ Get out of debt and stay out of debt. Simply "maintain" what you have (Body / teeth / heart, vehicles / rolling stock, dwelling, relationships with like minded people)....
Relax, sit back and watch the circus... No need to lay awake at 3 am trying to figure out the future, that would be a futile effort.
Another article like Hobo posted, Maersk is being honest. Doesn't look good.
Anyone want to venture a guess as to exactly how long a "pause" is ?
www.cnbc.com
Amazon pauses hiring for corporate workforce
Amazon is pausing hiring for roles in its corporate workforce, the company announced in a memo to staff Thursday.
www.cnbc.com
A bit surprising, given the holiday season is upon us. Amazon just completed a $200 million, 100,000sq/ft, 1000 job, robotic fulfillment facility in Shreveport, that they've already hired for. Layoffs could, very well be around the corner, as in 2023.Anyone want to venture a guess as to exactly how long a "pause" is ?
Amazon pauses hiring for corporate workforce
Amazon is pausing hiring for roles in its corporate workforce, the company announced in a memo to staff Thursday.
As long as people can get as much money for not working as they did when they had a job.... There will continue to be a shortage of qualified workers.
Employment openings for the month totaled 10.7 million, above the FactSet estimate for 9.9 million, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’
www.cnbc.com
Employment openings for the month totaled 10.7 million, above the FactSet estimate for 9.9 million, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’
October job growth could be slowest in nearly 2 years, but unemployment remains extremely low
This year's hot pace of job creation may have slowed in October, but unemployment is expected to remain very low as worker shortages persist.
Anyone want to venture a guess as to exactly how long a "pause" is ?
Amazon pauses hiring for corporate workforce
Amazon is pausing hiring for roles in its corporate workforce, the company announced in a memo to staff Thursday.
By shedding half its value in the past 12 months, I believe that Amazon is the first ever company to lose a full $1 trillion off its market cap. And even after all that, it still carries a PE ratio of 89.
You don't want to get out of fixed debt if it removes all your cash reserves. A mortgage at 3% as long as you are certain you can make the payments going forward will have inflation reducing the effective payback amounts over time. But excess cash is getting devalued as well at 10%+ per year.
True about keeping cash reserves...
Talk about CASH...... Look around at all of the people, business and government that is doing everything they can to "get your cash".... Think about it, why do they want your cash ? The FED reserve is going to push America into deflation... Because we will see a time (late 2023) when CASH is going to be the form of payment that vendors and creditor's want.... No bitcoin, no Paypal, no Venmo, no Apple Pay... Moving towards a one world currency.
Cash is like ammo.... Don't leave home without it.
I like having tangible goods. If you recall from the beginning of the year, I made sure I was well stocked on real items, at any price. Cash is good, but only useful if people take it.
Now we can talk about the "Barter System".... What was it you will be getting for that can of beans ? No cash needed.
Beans for pussy is my master plan.Now we can talk about the "Barter System".... What was it you will be getting for that can of beans ? No cash needed.
What characteristics define the middle class in your eyes?
The American middle class is at the end of an era | Fortune
The American middle class is experiencing the biggest wealth drop since the Great Recession.
fortune.com
“Despite elevated pricing actions taken throughout the year, daily store traffic in the U.S. reached approximately 95% pre-pandemic levels in September fueled by the wildly successful fall promotion,” Chief Financial Officer Rachel Ruggeri said on the company’s quarterly conference call.
www.cnbc.com
Starbucks U.S. sales climb as customers spend more on pricey drinks
Shares of Starbucks have fallen nearly 28% this year, dragging its market value down to $97.11 billion.
www.cnbc.com
Thanks for posting this link…Man, who could have predicted this?
Housing expert: Homeowners are locked in by their low mortgage rate
The housing market is in the midst of a major shift as the Federal Reserve continues to hike interest rates to tame inflation.finance.yahoo.com
Anyone else read the comments section?
The housing market will not soften for quite some time…
I mentor some young, married couples who have been trying to get a house. Both are hard workers, bring home good paychecks but don't understand the "cycles" and how important it is to be patient. 19 months ago they were discouraged and asked me "When can I get a house". I told them it was going to be a 2 year wait. They let our pitiful groans. We talked today and I told them they "had" to get that house during 2023... and to get their ducks in a row.. They had a few questions. I explained that if they did not get that house during 2023 they may never have an opportunity to get another house... 2023 will see the recession deepen... There is no telling what this administration will do, in desperation, to get some semblance of a recovery prior to the 2024 elections....
How do you guys see it?
I think that's all depending on location, and or region. Local builders here are booked two to three years out, and anything below $800K is still selling like hot cakes.
In my AO house closings are down significantly, prices are beginning to soften and mortgage applications are down.
True. This is why Blackstone made their bold move into rental properties.
I’ve been screaming since 2020 about the influx of institutional investors into the single family housing market.
Dire warning: "Predictions of how much stock, bond and real estate prices are likely to fall, top to bottom, and whether a mild or severe recession is likely, miss the point. The point is that an extraordinary confluence of extremes and problems have made possible a set of outcomes that would be at or beyond the boundaries of the entire post-WWII period," hedge fund giant Elliott wrote in a letter to clients. The firm founded by Paul Singer is cautious about looking for further easing of financial conditions with a Fed pivot, saying only a severe recession can cut inflation. "The world is on the path to hyperinflation, which is the direct route to global societal collapse and civil or international strife. It is not baked, but that is the path that we are treading. Investors should not assume that they have 'seen everything' on account of experiencing the 1973 to 1974 bear market and oil embargo, the 1987 crash, the dot-com crash, or the 2007 to 2008 GFC." From Wall Street Breakfast daily newsletter today
Younger generations have redefined what are "must haves" vs "nice to haves". I blame college debt on a younger generation (my daughter is one) who had to live like a princess while going to college unlike her parents who lived in ratty dorms/college apartments in the 1980s to graduate debt-free.“Despite elevated pricing actions taken throughout the year, daily store traffic in the U.S. reached approximately 95% pre-pandemic levels in September fueled by the wildly successful fall promotion,” Chief Financial Officer Rachel Ruggeri said on the company’s quarterly conference call.
Starbucks U.S. sales climb as customers spend more on pricey drinks
Shares of Starbucks have fallen nearly 28% this year, dragging its market value down to $97.11 billion.
Yes, I agree.
But like BFC has said...there are many people who are just waiting for prices to come down a little (or alot), and then the spending/building picks up again, or continues...
But with interest rates where they are at, cash talks for the short term. Until the reality of higher interest rates sets in, and people realize that huge addition/garage or new home "can't" be put off any longer.
This inflation will continue for a while, until the people with "real" money stop spending...and from what I understand, "a while" could be 2-3 years around here, and many other places it sounds like also...
That is all very true.... Looking back at my past, there has never been a really good time to buy a house. Most of the time "conditions" forced me to make that move. A person can always talk themselves out of buying that house. I've made money on some of my home sales and broke even on other's. The bottom line has always been "It cost money to keep a roof over my head".
An interesting comment:
“Demand is still strong,” said Amy Glaser, senior vice president of business operations at Adecco, a staffing and recruiting firm. “Everyone is anticipating at some point that we’ll start to see a shift in demand. But so far we’re continuing to see the labor market defying the law of supply and demand.”
www.cnbc.com
“Demand is still strong,” said Amy Glaser, senior vice president of business operations at Adecco, a staffing and recruiting firm. “Everyone is anticipating at some point that we’ll start to see a shift in demand. But so far we’re continuing to see the labor market defying the law of supply and demand.”
U.S. payrolls surged by 261,000 in October, better than expected as hiring remains strong
Nonfarm payrolls were expected to increase by 205,000 in October, according to Dow Jones estimates.
No returns. It's coming.I’ve been saying forever that $4 plus gas for a sustained period was going to be the beginning of it all. I’ve seen this movie before. Only this time gas is projected to be over $4 a gallon through the new year.
Foreclosures are up, housing starts are down. I DO believe the housing market will be different this time due to interest from institutional buying.
You can’t cut back on going to work to save gas.
If you make $25 an hour, you are working to just not die. That’s IF you get 40 hours a week. Pretty sad.
Inflation and soaring gas prices have forced a North Carolina logging company to shut down after 37 years in business
"I haven't talked to a logger in the last few years that is actually making money," the owner of Goodson's All Terrain Logging said.
This is why I started buying lumber at any price in January. This won’t be the only one.
For those who didn’t watch the movie In 2008; $5 gas came before the housing crash. People got broke as fuck, and it pushed those living on a shoestring over the limit. There’s no way to budget in a $200-$300 increase in monthly expenses like that on short notice.
Cost of operating went up which led to layoffs.
Couldn’t sell or trade a V8.
Couldn’t pay mortgages anymore. The recession happened.
A lot of disposable income is going into gas tanks right now. Not target, not Amazon, not Bradley’s jewelry. Walmart will still do alright.
I don’t think fast food will fare as well this time because it is no longer a cheaper alternative to a sit down restaurant.
We haven’t even seen the impacts of increased food production and transportation costs yet.
Free returns may soon be a thing of the past as retailers roll out stricter policies
From shorter return windows to restocking fees, expect there to be limitations on what can be brought back and when.
Yes you have, and correctly so, but people didn't want to believe this is a problem because it felt good to watch the prices of their homes shoot up to the moon every time they checked Zillow.
Well, I hope they enjoy watching their children rent in perpetuity.
That is exactly what I have explained to some young couples. 2023 could be the last opportunity to actually take ownership of a single family residence.... Advised them to get their ducks in a tight row.
Bobby Flay says "Learn to cook at home"... LOL
He then said how the consumers show the signs of a waning economy. "On the other side of it, I think the consumers are feeling the pressure as well because they turn on the TV, they look at social media and they understand that, you know, we’re on the brink of some really bad economy here." He added, "And so people, they tighten their wallet."
www.foxnews.com
He then said how the consumers show the signs of a waning economy. "On the other side of it, I think the consumers are feeling the pressure as well because they turn on the TV, they look at social media and they understand that, you know, we’re on the brink of some really bad economy here." He added, "And so people, they tighten their wallet."
Celebrity chef Bobby Flay warns 'bad economy' on horizon, cites 'every-night focus group' of restaurants
Celebrity chef Bobby Flay described running a restaurant as having a focus group that tells him the health of the economy, which he said is not in a good place.
www.foxnews.com
I won't promise anything to my sons other than that they will have the knowledge and skill to build their own homes if necessary. We already did this using recycled materials:
Hopefully having done this, they can at least avoid spending 30% of their gross wages each month for 30 years on an overly large box constructed from fancy cardboard and plastic.
But yeah, most people are fucked.
It's the Democratic plan, everyone living in govt subsidized housing, and riding mass transit to/from their govt appointed job.
Morgan Stanley: Prices for Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet watches will keep plunging due to a flood of supply — but these 3 real assets remain scarce and coveted
Time flies. But it also crashes.
Definitely one of my canaries.
Going to be an interesting circus to watch.
Ironic that millions of hard working people (worldwide) are putting their savings / retirement / nest egg into the hands of "alternative investment management companies". These are the same people who can't afford to buy a house because these companies, like Blackstone, are buying up residential housing and turning it into rental property.
These "alternative investment management companies" are flush with cash and have established a trigger mechanism that will put them in an optimal buying position as the housing market slumps.
2023 could possibly be the last year a young married couple (working) could procure a home.
Blackstone speaks - But we think the Fed will only stop raising rates once the economic damage from their tightening becomes clear.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blackstone_Inc. .
Weekly market commentary | BlackRock Investment Institute
Stay tuned for insights on hot topics and latest trends in the financial market via the Weekly commentary by the BlackRock Investment Institute.
www.blackrock.com
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Some of these propaganda filled head lines just kill me:
www.cnbc.com
Here's how much equity U.S. homeowners have lost since May
As home prices fall, homeowners are losing equity at the fastest pace in over a decade.
www.cnbc.com
Well, think of it like this: they are gaining negative equity.Some of these propaganda filled head lines just kill me:
Here's how much equity U.S. homeowners have lost since May
As home prices fall, homeowners are losing equity at the fastest pace in over a decade.
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