Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024

[Hobo Hilton]

The domino's are falling

World’s Second-Largest Steelmaker Closes European Plant | OilPrice.com

ArcelorMittal, world’s second-largest steelmaker, is the latest industrial company to announce a plant closure in Europe due to soaring gas and energy prices.

oilprice.com

 

[babyguppy]

Table 1. Job openings levels and rates by industry and region, seasonally adjusted - 2024 M11 Results

www.bls.gov

Table 1. Job openings levels and rates by industry and region, seasonally adjusted​

Table 1. Job openings levels and rates by industry and region, seasonally adjusted(1)

July 2021	Mar. 2022	Apr. 2022	May 2022	June 2022	July 2022(P)	July 2021	Mar. 2022	Apr. 2022	May 2022	June 2022	July 2022(P)
Industry and region	Levels (in thousands)	Rates(2)
Total	10,783	11,855	11,681	11,303	11,040	11,239	6.9	7.3	7.2	6.9	6.8	6.9
INDUSTRY
Total private	9,816	10,812	10,627	10,275	10,054	10,154	7.3	7.7	7.6	7.4	7.2	7.2
Mining and logging	34	45	41	36	38	36	5.7	6.9	6.3	5.4	5.6	5.3
Construction	337	426	440	405	353	375	4.4	5.3	5.5	5.0	4.4	4.6
Manufacturing	943	877	1,017	816	850	834	7.1	6.5	7.4	6.0	6.2	6.1
Durable goods	560	536	625	505	558	511	6.8	6.4	7.3	6.0	6.6	6.0
Nondurable goods	383	340	392	311	293	323	7.6	6.6	7.5	6.0	5.7	6.2
Trade, transportation, and utilities	1,897	2,036	1,886	2,108	1,653	1,824	6.4	6.6	6.2	6.8	5.4	6.0
Wholesale trade	264	295	300	371	276	281	4.4	4.8	4.9	6.0	4.5	4.6
Retail trade	1,082	1,263	1,040	1,185	885	970	6.6	7.4	6.2	7.0	5.3	5.8
Transportation, warehousing, and utilities	551	478	546	551	492	573	7.7	6.4	7.2	7.2	6.5	7.5
Information	181	226	265	248	239	218	6.0	7.1	8.2	7.7	7.4	6.7
Financial activities	540	508	511	524	622	635	5.8	5.4	5.4	5.5	6.5	6.6
Finance and insurance	347	375	360	370	476	473	5.1	5.4	5.2	5.3	6.7	6.7
Real estate and rental and leasing	192	133	151	154	145	162	7.8	5.4	6.0	6.1	5.8	6.4
Professional and business services	1,935	2,330	2,327	2,007	2,127	2,089	8.4	9.5	9.5	8.3	8.7	8.5
Education and health services	1,896	2,278	2,152	2,147	2,222	2,176	7.4	8.6	8.2	8.1	8.4	8.2
Educational services	174	211	205	179	196	193	4.6	5.3	5.2	4.5	4.9	4.8
Health care and social assistance	1,722	2,067	1,946	1,967	2,026	1,982	7.9	9.2	8.7	8.8	9.0	8.8
Leisure and hospitality	1,602	1,660	1,498	1,542	1,494	1,517	10.1	9.7	8.8	9.0	8.7	8.8
Arts, entertainment, and recreation	257	207	171	157	152	205	11.3	8.4	7.0	6.4	6.2	8.1
Accommodation and food services	1,345	1,453	1,327	1,385	1,343	1,312	9.9	9.9	9.1	9.4	9.1	8.9
Other services	451	426	490	442	456	451	7.6	7.0	7.9	7.2	7.4	7.3
Government	966	1,044	1,054	1,028	986	1,085	4.2	4.5	4.5	4.4	4.2	4.6
Federal	123	128	125	121	114	161	4.1	4.3	4.2	4.1	3.8	5.3
State and local	843	915	929	907	872	924	4.2	4.5	4.6	4.5	4.3	4.5
State and local education	336	327	366	362	318	360	3.2	3.1	3.4	3.4	3.0	3.4
State and local, excluding education	507	588	563	545	554	564	5.4	6.1	5.9	5.7	5.8	5.9
REGION(3)
Northeast	1,899	1,980	1,911	1,933	1,870	1,766	6.8	6.9	6.6	6.7	6.5	6.1
South	4,119	4,650	4,503	4,237	4,330	4,395	7.0	7.6	7.4	7.0	7.1	7.2
Midwest	2,329	2,533	2,684	2,479	2,433	2,459	6.8	7.2	7.6	7.0	6.9	6.9
West	2,436	2,693	2,582	2,655	2,407	2,619	6.7	7.1	6.8	7.0	6.4	6.9
Footnotes

 

[lariat]

The domino's are falling

World’s Second-Largest Steelmaker Closes European Plant | OilPrice.com

ArcelorMittal, world’s second-largest steelmaker, is the latest industrial company to announce a plant closure in Europe due to soaring gas and energy prices.

oilprice.com

View attachment 7947599

Where you reckon that business is going to?

 

[KZP]

 

[KZP]

Hey guys, not sure what's going on here. Are we like, creeping up into almost maybe slightly tiny bit being close to a recession? ಠ_ಠ

 

[KZP]

Shrink-flation report. My mom has been buying the butter alternative Smart Balance for years. Well, the newest container weighs the same amount as before, but the calories per serving has gone down from 80 to 50. First ingredient listed on the new containers is now Water instead of Vegetable oils. No label saying anything has changed. They are replacing the actual food ingredients with water to maintain the same ounces per container.

Finally convinced her to use real butter instead of the fake stuff.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I saw another article that 36% of Americans now working independently in some form of "gig" job or as independent contractor. Many of these may never go back to "traditional" employment. If health care is broken away from employer (Obamacare +), the self employed number probably will continue to increase

European Stainless Steel Mills Are Closing Due To Energy Crisis | OilPrice.com

Stainless steel mills across Europe are closing down due to the ongoing energy crisis, adding to current supply woes

oilprice.com

 

[KZP]

 

[KZP]

I'm in the Raleigh area. Reason the inventory jumped such a high percentage is because inventory was insanely low for a long time. In my area of 45k population there were only 140 homes listed any given day for a few years. Not sure if that's the case elsewhere on the chart.

 

[KZP]

 

[DarnYankeeUSMC]

I have been thinking about the end game of the Ukraine bullshit.
How did that little shit hole become so strategic for the planet?

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I saw another article that 36% of Americans now working independently in some form of "gig" job or as independent contractor. Many of these may never go back to "traditional" employment. If health care is broken away from employer (Obamacare +), the self employed number probably will continue to increase

Deja Vu

Bed Bath & Beyond issues statement on death of CFO Gustavo Arnal: ‘Will be truly missed’

Gustavo Arnal, chief financial officer and executive vice president of Bed Bath & Beyond, died on Friday, the company said in a statement on Sunday without elaborating.

www.foxbusiness.com

 

[NoDopes]

Is this thread broken?

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The domino's are falling

World’s Second-Largest Steelmaker Closes European Plant | OilPrice.com

ArcelorMittal, world’s second-largest steelmaker, is the latest industrial company to announce a plant closure in Europe due to soaring gas and energy prices.

oilprice.com

View attachment 7947599

Walmart cancels billions of dollars to right-size inventory - FreightWaves

Walmart pulls back on its order activity to align its inventory levels with projected demand.

www.freightwaves.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The domino's continue to fall:
The weakest American borrowers are starting to miss payments and default on their loans, and that is showing up at a surprising place: Goldman Sachs
.While competitors like Bank of America enjoy repayment rates at or near record levels, Goldman’s loss rate on credit card loans hit 2.93% in the second quarter. That’s the worst among big U.S. card issuers and “well above subprime lenders,” according to a Sept. 6 note from JPMorgan.

Goldman’s Apple Card business has a surprising subprime problem

Goldman's consumer business has had a bumpy ride as of late, marked by mounting losses, leadership turnover and missed product deadlines.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Executives seem pretty convinced a recession is coming, and earnings are expected to take a hit

Executives are talking about a recession as much as they were in the wake of the last one. Earnings are due from Adobe and Oracle.

www.marketwatch.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Another plan of "Hope".... Pushed into 2023

Golub expects signs of an inflation breakdown will force the Fed to stop hiking rates. His time frame: Over the next four to six months.
“The market believes that come the first quarter, if we continue to go on this glide path where things renormalize, that they’re going to either pause or signal that they might pause,” he said. “If they do that the stock market wants to move ahead of it. The stock market is really going to take off.”

Inflation 'collapse' will launch powerful market rally, Credit Suisse predicts

Credit Suisse expects the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate hikes in four to six months due to tumbling inflation.

www.cnbc.com

 

[devildog93]

Another plan of "Hope".... Pushed into 2023

Golub expects signs of an inflation breakdown will force the Fed to stop hiking rates. His time frame: Over the next four to six months.
“The market believes that come the first quarter, if we continue to go on this glide path where things renormalize, that they’re going to either pause or signal that they might pause,” he said. “If they do that the stock market wants to move ahead of it. The stock market is really going to take off.”

Inflation 'collapse' will launch powerful market rally, Credit Suisse predicts

Credit Suisse expects the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate hikes in four to six months due to tumbling inflation.

www.cnbc.com

That is some wishful thinking there. I think energy and food costs this winter will derail that pipe dream quickly.

 

[lariat]

Look at the industries with negative growth in the article. Extrapolate. Think about the follow-on effects to other industries. It isn’t just white collar.

It’s White-Collar Jobs That Are at Risk in the Next Recession

Industries such as tech, finance, and real estate are poised to see the biggest layoffs in a downturn.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[KZP]

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Less than one-third (31%) of Americans are “financially healthy” in 2022, down 3% from a year ago, according to the latest Financial Health Pulse 2022 U.S. Trends Report. More than half (55%) reported they were “financially coping” and 15% described themselves as “financially vulnerable”.

MSN

www.msn.com

 

[E. Bryant]

Look at the industries with negative growth in the article. Extrapolate. Think about the follow-on effects to other industries. It isn’t just white collar.

It’s White-Collar Jobs That Are at Risk in the Next Recession

Industries such as tech, finance, and real estate are poised to see the biggest layoffs in a downturn.

www.bloomberg.com

Are you suggesting that blue-collar working-class people are going to get fucked once again? Because that's pretty much always what happens when the richer white-collar workers stop spending.

 

[Lightning8]

Look at the industries with negative growth in the article. Extrapolate. Think about the follow-on effects to other industries. It isn’t just white collar.

It’s White-Collar Jobs That Are at Risk in the Next Recession

Industries such as tech, finance, and real estate are poised to see the biggest layoffs in a downturn.

www.bloomberg.com

Everyone brags about how productive they are working remotely (aka home) - well if it can be done remotely in US it can be done a lot cheaper remotely in a 3rd world country. Add in AI and ML and the white collar jobs are almost ALL at risk. Saw it in action, developed and executed the strategy, and took my severance.

 

[lariat]

Are you suggesting that blue-collar working-class people are going to get fucked once again? Because that's pretty much always what happens when the richer white-collar workers stop spending.

Yup. The follow-on effects will fall in right behind these layoffs.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Amazon is staying well ahead of the "Recession Curve".... A prudent move by management.
A 5 year chart

This map shows where Amazon is closing warehouses across the country

Amazon went on a building binge between 2020 and 2022 that left it with too much space, causing the company to scale back its warehouse network.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

MARIA BARTIROMO: The policy is continuing to drive us into a further inflationary story. Remember, the polls that you showed at the top of the show, show Americans think this administration is incompetent. It's not just incompetence. It's also tone-deaf because it keeps coming out with more spending. We're getting news that there's a tentative deal announced with the rail unions. Well, that's just going to be more spending and more money in the system. They want a 14.1% wage increase. Again, that's on top of the student loan bailout, on top of the infrastructure spending, on top of the Manchin-Schumer expectations of more spending. So you haven't seen an acknowledgment from this administration that all of this spending continues to stoke inflation, and the spending needs to stop to have people believe that they've actually got inflation under control. You just go to the store, you'll see the inflation right in your face.

Bartiromo calls for end to Biden's 'tone-deaf' economic policies: 'The spending needs to stop'

FOX Business host Maria Bartiromo sounded off on the "incompetence" of the administration, arguing that continued spending is only driving inflation even higher.

www.foxnews.com

 

[E. Bryant]

Amazon is staying well ahead of the "Recession Curve".... A prudent move by management.
A 5 year chart

This map shows where Amazon is closing warehouses across the country

Amazon went on a building binge between 2020 and 2022 that left it with too much space, causing the company to scale back its warehouse network.

www.cnbc.com

So Amazon is shrinking its footprint while its share price is sitting at a PE ratio of 122. Does that give anyone else the heebie-jeebies?

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Seems to be a lot of economic pull back going on in the New England area.

Bed Bath & Beyond is closing about 150 stores. Here’s a map of ones on the list so far

The struggling retailer announced the closures as part of a plan to stablize its finances.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

FedEx Corp. shares fell nearly 15% in the extended session Thursday after the logistics company pulled its outlook for the year, called for significantly lower quarterly profit and lower revenue, and said that fiscal 2023 is about to become worse.
FedEx FDX, -0.07% said fiscal first quarter was hit by lower volumes globally, a trend that got worse toward the end of the quarter. It expects its business conditions “to further weaken” in the fiscal second quarter.

FedEx stock tanks nearly 15% after company withdraws outlook, says year is about to get worse

FedEx Corp. stock drops more than 15% Thursday after the logistics company pulled its outlook for the year and called for significantly lower quarterly...

www.marketwatch.com

 

[NoDopes]

This Christmas is going to be brutal!

 

[lariat]

This Christmas is going to be brutal!

Wait until next Christmas when the year’s crops and meat are reduced due to the lack of fertilizer and feed.

 

[KZP]

 

[babyguppy]

pull that fk'n money out.... move it somewhere else... shit's not rocket science.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

 

[Hobo Hilton]

FedEx CEO says he expects the economy to enter a ‘worldwide recession’

The CEO's pessimism came after FedEx missed estimates on revenue and earnings in its first quarter.

www.cnbc.com

 

[lariat]

Holiday shopping season expected to be muted as inflation squeezes shoppers

A spate of reports say shoppers are likely feeling thrifty heading into the holidays as they face higher prices for groceries and other necessities.

www.cnbc.com

 

[lariat]

Americans Continue To Pile On More And More Debt | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[KZP]

 

[Palmershunter]

Coming to a neighborhood near you

 

[gigamortis]

I believe the stock market will manage to tread water until the mid term elections. After the election, those in control will go ahead and light the fuse on the stock market. The political class relies on the extremely short memory of the average voter. If the market crashes right after the election, that leaves two years for things to find a bottom and start looking "rosey" just in time for the next election.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I believe the stock market will manage to tread water until the mid term elections. After the election, those in control will go ahead and light the fuse on the stock market. The political class relies on the extremely short memory of the average voter. If the market crashes right after the election, that leaves two years for things to find a bottom and start looking "rosey" just in time for the next election.

We are attempting to function in a country where every minor detail has become "politicized". It goes against Human Nature / Mother Nature to somehow meld Political and Natural together. Those of us who wake up, wide awake, at 3 am have brains that are attempting to decipher the "melding" we are being fed by way of propaganda.
The sheep are eating it up like spring time grass.
The old timers are spitting it out like rancid hamburger.
The division continues.

 

[Oldloser]

That is some wishful thinking there. I think energy and food costs this winter will derail that pipe dream quickly.

Yep. Heating oil demand has not Gil the oil or gas market yet.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Not numbers you will see in any Official Government report:

And 24% of credit-card debtors said their balances built up over day-to-day expenses like groceries and child care​

With high inflation and interest-rate hikes, 6 in 10 credit-card debt holders say they’ve owed money for at least a year

And 24% of credit-card debtors said their balances built up over day-to-day expenses like groceries and child care.

www.marketwatch.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Another piece of the puzzle to the future...

Homebuilder sentiment tumbles in September for ninth straight month

Builder sentiment in the market for single-family homes tumbled in September to the lowest level in two years, indicating the housing market is officially in a recession.

www.foxbusiness.com

 

[lariat]

Another piece of the puzzle to the future...

Homebuilder sentiment tumbles in September for ninth straight month

Builder sentiment in the market for single-family homes tumbled in September to the lowest level in two years, indicating the housing market is officially in a recession.

www.foxbusiness.com

If we are supposed to have like 3/4 less of the worlds population soon, why build those houses anyway?

 

[Hobo Hilton]

If we are supposed to have like 3/4 less of the worlds population soon, why build those houses anyway?

Those "houses" are match box apartments at the "Retraining Center"...... When the RESET is completed the remaining 1.5 million Americans will be housed there.... Some will be within walking distance to the coal mine.. No Cadillac's.

 

[KZP]

If we are supposed to have like 3/4 less of the worlds population soon, why build those houses anyway?

Earth is going to be hotter than surface of the sun in 9 years. Don't forget that part too.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Ford warns investors of an extra $1 billion in supply chain costs during the third quarter

Ford warned investors the company expects to incur an extra $1 billion in costs during the third quarter due to inflation and supply chain issues.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The link is to an "Opinion" article. All valid considerations. The one thing the American's can't seem to accept if the FED Reserve is now just one more fish in a big ocean. Hundreds of opinions on what the FED should do. Probably the best thing for middle class American's is for the FED to simply disappear.... Poof ! .... Wake up tomorrow morning the there is no FED Reserve. Allow the World Markets to get the human race out of this mess.
JMHO

The Federal Reserve is in an impossible position, and now has yet another complicating factor

The Fed wants to avoid the perception of politics playing a role in its policy. So how does it handle two rate decisions before the November elections?

www.marketwatch.com

 

[E. Bryant]

Ford warns investors of an extra $1 billion in supply chain costs during the third quarter

Ford warned investors the company expects to incur an extra $1 billion in costs during the third quarter due to inflation and supply chain issues.

www.cnbc.com

Ford and GM keep blaming these "one-off" quarterly hiccups on inventory carrying costs, but by my calcs, it's costing them "only" ~$125 million/quarter to finance that WIP. Ford is talking about a hit of $1 billion this quarter. What accounts for the rest? If it's concessions that are being made to suppliers to deal with inflation, then this isn't going to magically reverse by Q4.

This should be interesting to watch over the coming weeks. The Q3 earnings call should be a few days before Halloween, which might be appropriate timing.